Race day focus: Best bets, inside mail for Goulburn

Mark Newnham-trained Irish-import Iowa sent out all the right signs at his recent Australian debut to suggest he will be a force at Goulburn.

Mark Newnham has a promising racehorse in imported gelding Iowa who looks hard to beat at Goulburn on Tuesday. Picture: Getty Images

Daily Telegraph form analyst Shayne O’Cass gives his best bets and runs the rule over every race for Goulburn.

The Form: Complete NSW Racing thoroughbred form, including video replays and all you need to know about every horse, jockey and trainer. Find a winner here!

GOULBURN

BEST BET

Race 1, No.4: IOWA

Galileo import who sent out all the right signs that a win was imminent when finishing a distant, but encouraging fourth at his Australian debut.

NEXT BEST

Race 7, No.12: MIDNIGHT OASIS

Hugely valuable broodmare proposition for later on but still have plenty of unfinished business as a racehorse. On her way up.

VALUE BET

Race 8, No.4: LEICA STORM

Was run of the race bar none when he resumed at Newcastle. Will have no problems progressing through his grades.

QUADDIE

Race 5: 1,9,12

Race 6: 1,2,4,5

Race 7: 10,12

Race 8: 4,10

Keagan Latham can maintain his good record at Goulburn. Picture: Getty Images

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

Keagan Latham, a holder of the Provincial Jockeys Premiership, has a 19 per cent winning strike-rate at Goulburn.

THE INSIDE MAIL FOR GOULBURN

RACE 1

Iowa is an import by Galileo. He had a dozen starts back home, winning one at a place called Down Royal in Northern Ireland beating King Of The Castle who is a $51 chance to give Lloyd Williams another Melbourne Cup in 2022. As for Iowa, he was very good first-up when a close fourth over the 1850m. Flying Witness finished ahead of Iowa in that race at Newcastle but for what it’s worth, personally I sense Iowa is the superior stayer of the two. Crazy ladies is a very fit horse and has the home-ground advantage.

Bet: Iowa to win

RACE 2

Acceber has been tagged as a potential Four Pillars type horse and the more you look at him, the more you see. The son of Gimcrack winner Our Joan Of Arc has done nothing wrong in his five starts and was very strong indeed at the end of 1400m at Kembla on Sept 15. Daytona likewise has turned up at every one of his four starts so far. Was super impressive when he won his maiden and that was on a Soft 7. Dubai Showgirl is capable of winning but you have to be a little bit cautious of a horse who is 1 from 15.

Bet: Acceber to win, exacta 1 to beat 2

RACE 3

Emperor’s Star has been with Danielle Seib for only three starts, he won two of them and probably had a valid excuse for the one in the middle. Can’t vouch for the strength and depth of that Benchmark 66 he won at Moruya last time out but he made them look second-rate. Spirited Emily has several handy siblings including Zardoro and So Say You, both also trained by Terry Robinson. This seven-year-old mare is not in their class but is consistent at her own level. Redhair’n’freckles was always held in high regard by Norm Garnder and he is showing why now.

Bet: Emperor’s Star to win

Trainer Amanda Turner has Mr Cantankerous racing in good form and ready to noth an overdue win. Picture: AAP Image

RACE 4

Mr Cantankerous has only won twice in his 23 starts but has placed seven times, five of them are seconds so he is pretty consistent and trustworthy actually. In fact, he finished runner-up at his most recent outing and was only a neck off Essential Sky who is way better than Nowra quality. Rent A Rock had 66kg here before Coriah Keatings 4kg claim which well and truly brings the son of Fiorente into contention. What am I saying, he’s the horse to beat! How many do you see win three in a row, not many, so all power and respect to him.

Bet: Mr Cantankerous each-way, quinella 1,6

RACE 5

Condrieu, who lives with and wears the same colours as Lost And Running, was a massive drifter ($4.40 to $9.50) on debut at Newcastle. When it was all said and done, she ran more like a $3.50 shot on the day. The best word we can use to describe the run is ‘encouraging’. Here’s another cliche that applies to her ‘has a future’. Mandalong Missile reared at the start and missed it by five at Newcastle on Sept 16. She was ordered to trial and did so at home at Warwick Farm a week later and bolted in. She is a better filly than her C.V suggests.

Bet: Condrieu to win, exacta 1 to beat 9

RACE 6

Wagunda is your rolled-gold example of a horse on the improve. The son of Wandjina was actually not too bad at all on debut when he ran seventh at Canberra on a Heavy 10. Even so, he went much better again at Moruya at his next start. Great draw, at home, Billy Owen again; heaps to like here. A horse called Spiritly was $31 in early markets which makes him worth a second look. Reece Jones on, local. good stable, quite well bred, trials are inconclusive but the last one wasn’t as bad as it reads on paper. Big Baz has been costly and consistent.

Bet: Wagunda to win, Spiritly to place, quinella 4,5

Jockey Billy Owen rides Wagunda at Goulburn on Tuesday. Picture: AAP Image

RACE 7

Midnight Oasis is the filly or mare that you would most like to take home out of this meeting. First of all, she will be winning plenty of races, and maybe even some good races, before she retires but look at her pedigree; wow. Just in terms of where she is at and where she is going, she was very good in a very good maiden at Newcastle second-up. Her danger races in the same colours namely Rosie Impact who is the ‘system horse’ owing to the fact that she is first-up having run in a Group 1 classic at her most recent start. It’s a good system that.

Bet: Midnight Oasis to win, exacta 12 to beat 10

RACE 8

Leica Storm is another one patently progressive young horses headed to a really strong and inviting Goulburn meeting. A son of the mighty Snitzel from the celebrated ‘Leica family’, you just could not have missed, much less been impressed by his fast closing third at Newcastle first-up. Make no mistake, Snowden colt Natural Nine will make the grade. This great-grandson of Burst ran a lot better on debut than the guide says. Warwick Farm pair Malabar and Midori Fuji both have claims.

Bet: Leica Storm to win, Natural Nine each-way, exacta 4 to beat 10, quinella 4,10

Originally published as Race day focus: Best bets, inside mail for Goulburn