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Kingsford Smith Cup runner-by runner form analysis and tips

Some of the nation’s elite sprinters clash in Saturday’s Group 1 Kingsford Smith Cup at Eagle Farm. Here’s how Racenet sees the race panning out.

Racenet
3 min read
May 29, 2024 - 1:52PM
Bella Nipotina (black cap) beats I Wish I Win in the Group 1 Doomben 10,000. Picture. Grant Peters/Trackside Photography.
Bella Nipotina (black cap) beats I Wish I Win in the Group 1 Doomben 10,000. Picture. Grant Peters/Trackside Photography.

The $1 million Group 1 Kingsford Smith Cup (1300m) has drawn together a quality weight-for-age field at Eagle Farm on Saturday.

Here is a runner-by-runner analysis of every horse set to line up on Saturday.

1 – I WISH I WIN

Star sprinter knocking on the door after two close up Group 1 weight-for-age finishes this year. Looked the winner a fortnight back in the Doomben 10,000 before being gunned down late. Should be right at his peak now and pretty much ticks every box.

VERDICT: Genuine winning contender.

2 – THINK ABOUT IT

Lost his way during the autumn but the best of his three performances was fresh at weight-for-age over this distance. When prepped as a sprinter last year, he won this race, a Stradbroke, Premiere Stakes and The Everest without defeat. Freshened for this and targeted at the race.

VERDICT: Set to show his true colours.

3 – TUVALU

Top class galloper that rarely lets supporters down. Comes into this off a win in the Wangoom at Warrnambool when carrying 61.5kg on rain affected ground. Yet to win in six weight-for-age starts but has been around the mark a couple of times, albeit over 1600m and beyond.

VERDICT: Place claims best.

4 – UNCOMMON JAMES

Good local sprinter but he’s been come up short at this level over the past 12 months with his best performances being safely held placings behind Imperatriz in weight-for-age races at The Valley. Started favourite in the Victory Stakes and was wide but folded like a deck of cards.

VERDICT: This grade finds him out.

5 – ANTINO

Made a first-up statement when easily winning the Group 2 Victory Stakes but there is a query over the quality of the form out of that race. Performed strongly during the spring in Melbourne last year and is unbeaten second-up from three campaigns. Outside gate to overcome.

VERDICT: Can make an each-way case for him.

6 – CEPHEUS

Didn’t fire in two autumn runs in Sydney. Given a quiet trial recently at Deagon. There’s nothing in his form to suggest he is capable of winning a Group 1 weight-for-age race at start 32 as a seven-year-old and recent performances suggest his best is behind him.

VERDICT: Outclassed here.

7 – OSIPENKO

Talented galloper on his day but his days have been few and far between in the past 12 months. Won the Hobartville Stakes in the autumn last year and during the spring he placed third behind Mr Brightside and Alligator Blood in the Makybe Diva Stakes. Tuned up for this with two quiet trials.

VERDICT: If there’s to be a surprise – this is the horse.

8 – FREEDOM RALLY

Has found the line in good style in both runs this preparation but it’s been in much, much easier grade. Does his best racing at Eagle Farm, handles all surfaces and has a good record over the trip. Will need some luck from the wide draw.

VERDICT: Out of his league in this.

9 – BELLA NIPOTINA

One of the most consistent top flight sprinters in the land and was rewarded for her gallantry when edging out I Wish I Win in the last few strides of the Doomben 10,000. She handles all types of ground, distance suits and she’s a genuine weight-for-age class galloper.

VERDICT: Rule her out at your own peril.

10 – IN SECRET

Quality mare having her first start of 2024. During the spring of last year she was around the mark with the best sprinters in the land, within roughly a length in races like The Everest, VRC Stakes, The Shorts and Concorde. Sure to be wound up for this with two trials under the belt and drawn to get favours.

VERDICT: Wouldn’t be here if they didn’t think she could win.

11 – MAGIC TIME

Quality mare that continues to progress through the ranks. Won the All-Aged Stakes at weight-for-age following a solid performance when beaten just over a length in the TJ Smith Stakes. Astute trainer that will have her wound up and ready to fire.

VERDICT: Can make an each-way case for her.

12 – ESPIONA

Was doing her best work late in the Doomben 10,000 when running into the placings. Got too far back in the All-Aged Stakes after her unlucky performance in the TJ Smith, a race she would have won with a clear path. She’s up to this, just needs the breaks to go her way.

VERDICT: Can win, just needs luck at the right time.

■ ■ ■ ■ ■

TIPS
1st – IN SECRET (No. 10)
2nd – I WISH I WIN (No. 1)
3rd – THINK ABOUT IT (No. 2)
4th – ESPIONA (No. 12)

Originally published as Kingsford Smith Cup runner-by runner form analysis and tips

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Original URL: https://www.goldcoastbulletin.com.au/sport/horse-racing/qld-racing/kingsford-smith-cup-runnerby-runner-form-analysis-and-tips/news-story/942c9e0f5fb2b5a09bfd3260c7976665