The Early Mail: Brad Davidson’s extended preview and best bets for Randwick

TAB BIG BETS: The Daily Telegraph’s Brad Davidson runs the rule over every race, the speed maps and suggested bets for Apollo Stakes Day at Randwick.

The Daily Telegraph’s Brad Davidson runs the rule over every, the speeds and suggested bets for Apollo Stakes Day at Randwick.

HOT TIPS: WEEKEND BEST BETS

WHAT MAKES WINX SO GREAT?

Great card at Randwick on Monday headlined by the return of Winx. The track should be a Good 4 and the rail is out 8m, which normally gives on-pace runners an advantage.

RACE 1 (1.20pm): RANVET HCP (1600m)

NUMBERS: 6-2-3-8

OVERVIEW: Tough race. Liapari is flying but is up in class and doesn’t map so well on Monday. Dylan’s Rojo and Sabino Speed are tough on-pacers and the latter should appreciate the give in the track. Astronomos has been trialling well and appears the best chance at odds.

SPEED MAP: Expect Dylan’s Rojo to take it up with Sabino Speed and Hogmanay handy. Liapari and Astronomos get back. Speed looks only fair.

DID YOU KNOW: Astronomos is 2/2 at Randwick and just missed first-up last preparation.

SUGGESTED BET: SABINO SPEED win. Include ASTRONOMOS in all exotics.

RACE 2 (1.55pm): TAB HIGHWAY HCP (1800m)

NUMBERS: 6-1-7-3

OVERVIEW: Medieval has never been tested beyond a mile but it looks as if the 1800m will suit.He has a turn of foot and most of these don’t. Tipta Tantivy has been racing well and back in trip suits here with the lightweight. Circle Game had every chance last start but is looking for 1800m now.

SPEED MAP: Tricky race map-wise. Tipta Tantivy, D’Beak, Maestro Tom and potentially Super Force should all be on speed. Circle Game and Medieval should be midfield. Speed should be genuine.

DID YOU KNOW: Matthew Dunn, who has Medieval engaged, is striking at 24 per cent from his past 50 runners.

SUGGESTED BET: MEDIEVAL win.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Medieval $6-$5

Trainer Matthew Dunn and wife Keira will hope to snare another TAB Highway on Saturday with Medieval. Picture: Scott Fletcher

RACE 3 (2.35pm): OPEN MARKETS & BMYG HCP (2400m)

NUMBERS: 3-4-2-11

OVERVIEW: Admiral Jello looks the hardest to beat and he was 1900m up to 2400m last start in a strongly run race and was still too good. Regal Monarch looms as the big improver up to his pet trip third up and the give in the ground suits. Burning Energy should relish getting back out to 2400m.

SPEED MAP: Gold Ambition should lead but Embley , Burning Energy and Plymouth Road will all be up there. Admiral Jello parks just behind them and Regal Monarch will be back a bit further. Pace should be genuine.

DID YOU KNOW: Admiral Jello posted the quickest last 600m, 400m and 200m splits of the race when winning over this track and distance last start.

SUGGESTED BET: Back both ADMIRAL JELLO and REGAL MONARCH to win.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Zatopaz $17-$15, Plymouth Road $9-$8

RACE 4 (3.10pm): INGLIS CLASSIC (1200m)

NUMBERS: 8-4-2-7

OVERVIEW: Ultramarine peaked late first-up behind Exceeds but can improve sharply here. Sweet Deal had no luck in the Widden Stakes when three-wide without cover the trip.

SPEED MAP: Hard race to map. Sweet Deal should push forward as will Fire Stoker and Sweet Bouquet. Ultramarine should be midfield. Speed only fair.

SUGGESTED BET: Happy to watch these.

RACE 5 (3.50pm): SOUTHERN CROSS STAKES (1200m)

NUMBERS: 2-7-5-1

OVERVIEW: Dothraki has good second-up stats and could get a soft lead and keep going. His Majesty should be suited back up to 1200m and Tim Clark goes back aboard. Le Romain is the class horse but 61kg first-up is the query. Impending is classy but he looks under the odds at $2.30.

SPEED MAP: Not much speed suiting front runners. Dothraki should lead with Le Romain possibly coming across. His Majesty can maybe hold the leaders back, while Impending won’t be far away fresh.

DID YOU KNOW: Big Money won this race last year at $8.

SUGGESTED BET: Back both DOTHRAKI and HIS MAJESTY to win.

RACE 6 (4.25pm): SPRING STAKES (1600m)

NUMBERS: 3-7-13-4

OVERVIEW: First Approval sat three-deep without cover at Caulfield last start and still battled on well for second. Royal Navy and Faraway Town will run on late, while Invincible Gem is airborne.

SPEED MAP: Tempo should be solid enough with Gauguin, Righteous Mate, Invincible Gem, and Captain Duffy all pushing forward. First Approval should be midfield, with Royal Navy behind them.

SUGGESTED BET: FIRST APPROVAL win.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Faraway Town $13-$11 ($1,000 @ $13), Captain Duffy $21-$17, Royal Navy $-$7.50

RACE 7 (5.05pm): LIGHT FINGERS STAKES (1200m)

NUMBERS: 5-1-2-3

OVERVIEW: Global Glamour is the class filly and she will be hard to catch if she can find the front. The 1200m is short of her best but she is so well weighted and is rock-hard fit. Foxplay’s trials have only been OK but her fresh record is good and this looks within her grasp. Gridelin is on the up, Honesty Prevails trialled like a star and is ready to go, while Spright and Zenalicious should be chiming in late.

SPEED MAP: Expect Global Glamour to come across and lead with Lubiton, Honesty Prevails and Long Time Ago handy. Gridelin and Foxplay next, while Zenalicious and Spright should drift back. Speed will be genuine.

DID YOU KNOW: Samantha produced the third quickest last 600m split (34.02s) of the day at Randwick last start.

SUGGESTED BET: FOXPLAY win.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Long time Ago $51-$35

Foxplay will be hard to beat in the Light Fingers Stakes. Picture: Jenny Evans

RACE 8 (5.40pm): APOLLO STAKES (1400m)

NUMBERS: 11-5-1-7

OVERVIEW: Winx should return a winner as the market suggests. Dibayani is a great place chance. He grows a leg the Sydney way of going and loves Randwick. Hartnell should run well fresh but 1400m is short of his best. Endless Drama has been impressive at the trials.

SPEED MAP: Lasqueti Spirit, Leebaz and Endless Drama could all push forward while Winx and Dibayani should sit just behind them. Hartnell should be midfield. The speed won’t be strong.

DID YOU KNOW: Winx has defeated Hartnell by a combined 27 lengths in their four clashes to date.

SUGGESTED BET: DIBAYANI place.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Winx $1.15-$1.12 ($12,000 @ $1.15, $8,000 @ $1.12)

RACE 9 (6.15pm): TRISCAY STAKES (1200m)

NUMBERS: 2-1-3-14

OVERVIEW: Pearls beat Dixie Blossoms first-up last prep and meets her 1kg better off on Monday. Nancy trialled well and will get on-pace favours. Dixie Blossoms trialled superbly but will give them a decent start from barrier 14. Zestful can run well at odds.

SPEED MAP: Speed looks OK with Nancy and Rocket Commander likely to press forward. Zestful and Pearls won’t be far away, while Dixie Blossoms should get back.

DID YOU KNOW: Zara Bay clocked the quickest last 600m of the day (33.32s) at Rosehill on January 28.

SUGGESTED BET: PEARLS each-way.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Shillelagh $10-$8

RACE 10 (6.50pm): SCHWEPPES HCP (1200m)

NUMBERS: 6-13-1-14

OVERVIEW: Hanwritten was a strong first-up winner over 1000m and he will have plenty of admirers. A tough 1200m the only query. Pick Me Up is starting to put it together and he can get back off a good speed here and rocket late. Meursault and Your Way will get every chance, while Knit ‘n’ Purl can run on late.

SPEED MAP: Very strong speed likely here with Hanwritten, Bullrush (was ridden back in trial?), Untamed Diamond and Encostanati all pressing forward. Meursault and Your Way park in behind them.

DID YOU KNOW: Seven horses in this field- Meursault (350), Dupe ‘em (528), Essay Raider (728), Alart (469), In A Wink (637) and Barood (437) haven’t won for at least 350 days.

SUGGESTED BET: Boxed quinella — HANWRITTEN / PICK ME UP / MEURSAULT.

TURF TALK

Ray Thomas and Brad Davidson discuss the best bets for the weekend.

Davidson: Welcome back from holidays, Ray. What a weekend of racing we have ahead. The mighty mare Winx is back to headline a massive 10-race card at Randwick.

Thomas: Winx just wins doesn’t she?

Davidson: Absolutely and barring bad luck she shouldn’t have any trouble taking care of that lot. I can’t back her at $1.12 though but Dibayani the place interests me.

Thomas: It will be a monumental upset if she was beaten — I can’t see that happening. Have you noticed how well Endless Drama has been trialling. He could be a horse to follow through the autumn.

Davidson: He looks a very nice horse indeed. The Light Fingers is an outstanding race. I went Foxplay’s way just from Global Glamour.

Thomas: I like Global Glamour. I know 1200m is probably short of her best but she has that residual fitness from her Magic Millions run. She is a dual Group 1 winner meeting her rivals at level weights.

Davidson: The Southern Cross Stakes is an interesting race. I know a few good judges are all over Impending and he is a chance but I couldn’t back him with your money at $2.30. Le Romain trialled well, His Majesty is over the odds and Dothraki should get a soft lead. I will lean Dothraki’s way just over His Majesty but I will probably back them both.

Thomas: I have a theory, Brad, that this is a really good crop of three-year-olds and that will be put to the test with Impending in the Southern Cross Stakes. I like Impending but I take your point about the odds — he is undoers.

Davidson: Dixie Blossoms trialled like a star but I’m all over Pearls in the Triscay Stakes at each-way odds. She defeated Dixie Blossoms first-up last preparation and goes like a bomb fresh.

Thomas: This is a good race. Dixie Blossoms is going to need a lot of luck from her wide barrier as I’m concerned there might not be a lot of speed upfront. I’m sticking with her though because I think she is a high class mare and you’re right Brad, she trialled like Phar Lap.

Davidson: What’s the Ray Thomas special?

Thomas: Admiral Jello to go back-to-back in the staying race at Randwick.

Davidson: Medieval for me in the Highway.

Originally published as The Early Mail: Brad Davidson’s extended preview and best bets for Randwick