Saturday Best with Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy

TAB BIG BETS: The Daily Telegraph’s Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy discuss the five Group 1 races on Golden Slipper Day at Rosehill on Saturday.

SYDNEY’S super mare Winx will keep her winning streak going in the George Ryder Stakes, Tarzino should be too strong for his Rosehill Guineas rivals — but the Golden Slipper is one of the most open in years.

This is the opinion of Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy and The Daily Telegraph’s racing editor Ray Thomas after they studied the five Group 1 races at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday.

The Golden Slipper is the feature of one of the great race meetings in the southern hemisphere and Dufficy is selecting a boilover with Godolphin’s Telperion, while Thomas is giving Capitalist another chance.

R4: RANVET STAKES (2000m)

Thomas: Dibayani and Hauraki boast the Winx formline, which is the best weight-for-age form you can have, with both running placings behind the mighty mare in the Chipping Norton Stakes. I thought Dibayani was fantastic running second last start and he is going to appreciate 2000m. The same applies to Hauraki who has been improved by two solid runs this campaign. Criterion and Mongolian Khan, at their best, would fight out the finish here but both are coming off poor comeback runs. I do feel Mongolian Khan is way over the odds.

Dufficy: I’m going the other way with Hauraki. His coat wasn’t quite right in the spring but he’s come back in great order this autumn. He is third-up and at 2000m, which is absolutely ideal, he is one for one at his only start over the track and distance and I’m expecting him to be very hard to beat. I am also looking for dramatic improvement from Storm The Stars. He has great overseas form and I thought he went well enough in the Chipping Norton Stakes at his Australian debut to suggest he could jump out of the ground in this race. He could even be a Queen Elizabeth Stakes contender. I like the way Kool Kompany is presenting on the back-up although I would prefer him in a handicap. No knock on Dibayani as his two Sydney runs have been very good. Mongolian Khan left me flat first-up because I tipped him to beat Winx. He looked well in the coat and I couldn’t believe he ran so badly. His barrier trial since was inconclusive which is a worry. If we happen to get a wet track then Mongolian Khan is unstoppable. It would be no surprise to me if either Mongolian Khan and Criterion won but it is hard to come into them after their last runs.

TAB market movers: Dibayani $4.60-$4.20, Storm The Stars $9.50-$8.50, Kool Kompany $13-$14 ($200 x $300 @ $13/$3.40), The United States $6.50 unchanged ($500 e/w @ $6.50/$2.10)

Nic Ashman’s race analysis. Who will lead and who will come from behind?

SPEED: Mongolian Khan punches up with Bohemian Lily deciding how fast the race is run. Dibayani and Criterion get nice trails in behind. Kool Kompany is the fly in the ointment and looks ready to do something.

RUN-ONS: The United States down the outside, Hauraki through the middle.

R5: GEORGE RYDER STAKES (1500m)

Thomas: Winx is very short but she is in such tremendous form. She is coming back slightly in trip from the 1600m of her Chipping Norton Stakes but she has done that previously without any problem. We know she is very versatile and likes her races spaced. For run of the race stuff we can rely on Hugh Bowman who is a master tactician. Winx has that rare ability to sustain a long sprint which is such an asset for weight-for-age racing. Impossible to tip against her. The danger is definitely Turn Me Loose. He is as tough as they come, is back in top form winning the Futurity Stakes last start, and he could lead and dictate here. This horse is very hard to get past. Press Statement is very good and will be peaking now and First Seal has come back in great form.

Dufficy: You look at the form guide and it tells you everything — Winx is amazing and she just keeps winning. In saying that, this is her stiffest test and you can even throw in the Cox Plate. This Ryder field is loaded with talent. Winx will get no favours in the run, Hugh may even have to go back to last early as I can’t see any of his rival riders letting him just cruise over. Despite all this, I have to go with Winx as she is a push-button mare with a great will-to-win. Turn Me Loose is a terrific horse. He will make the running and he is so very, very tough. Kermadec is a big improver and on a soft track he would come right into calculations. Press Statement doesn’t know how to run a bad race and First Seal is in great order and we tend to forget she has beaten Winx in each of their five previous clashes.

TAB market movers: Press Statement $6-$5.50 ($1,500 @ $6), Turn Me Loose $7 unchanged ($300 @ $7 THREE TIMES), Winx $1.60 unchanged ($3,000 @ $1.60, $1,000 @ $1.60)

Nic Ashman’s race analysis

SPEED: Turn Me Loose gets a loose lead. Reckon Preferment gets his back and a lovely trail.

RUN-ONS: Winx has a monster finish but will Bowman have her back past midfield? First Seal down the middle, Happy Clapper goes for an inside attack.

Mighty mare Winx faces her stiffest test on Saturday. Picture: Simon Bullard

R6: ROSEHILL GUINEAS (2000m)

Thomas: Tarzino has had two runs back from a spell and showed he was close to his best with his narrow loss in the Australian Guineas last start. He is getting out to his right distances now where his superior staying ability should shine through. I think he is clearly on top. Le Romain was holding Press Statement on the line in the Randwick Guineas and there was no fluke about that win. He has a very good turn of foot but there is that slight doubt about him at 2000m. I’ve always been a wrap for River Wild who had no luck in his two Melbourne runs. He needs to be out and rolling from about the 600m and if that is the case on Saturday, he will keep grinding away. Vanbrugh ran a blinder in the Australian Guineas and is looking for 2000m now and Gold Ambition’s Randwick Guineas minor placing was an excellent effort and he should be even better suited at 2000m.

Dufficy: I rate Tarzino as the dominant colt and he is ready to find his outstanding Victoria Derby-winning form. With even luck and clear running he should be far too good for this field. This could be a tricky race with an indifferent tempo but Tarzino is good enough to overcome a few obstacles and get the job done. If he gets on the right leg and has clear running he is an odds-on chance. I respect Jameka as there is a sense of timing about her. She is third-up at 2000m and if there is more rain she gets a lot of ticks. Vanbrugh is another horse yet to peak, he is back on his home track and on his Australian Guineas run he is over the odds. Gold Ambition may have a poor winning strike-rate but he is an improving horse.

TAB market movers: Tarzino $2.80-$2.40 ($1,000 @ $2.40, $960 @ $2.40, $500 @ $2.40, $415 @ $2.40), Le Romain $8-$7 ($300 @ $8)

Nic Ashman’s race analysis

SPEED: Jameka comes across from out wide and given River Wild’s grinding run in the Australian Guineas, perhaps he punches forward.

RUN-ONS: Tarzino has a huge 1200m sprint on him. Vanbrugh, Gold Ambition out wide with Crosley Hotshot the smoky through the middle.

R7: GOLDEN SLIPPER (1200m)

Thomas: This is one of the more open Golden Slippers with five unbeaten youngsters and another four last-start winners. Look, I know Capitalist was disappointing when beaten for the first time last start but there were legitimate excuses for his Todman Stakes flop. I know it is not easy tipping a horse coming off such a loss but he has drawn barrier two, the same gate he started from when he won the Magic Millions, and at $8 I just think he is value given he was the Golden Slipper favourite for weeks. Extreme Choice is absolutely bombproof — a brilliant colt who has won the Sydney way of going and his Blue Diamond win was simply outstanding. He is a deserved Slipper favourite and the one to beat. I feel the best filly in the race is Calliope and her win in the Magic Night Stakes last week was outstanding. I loved her turn of foot and she will strip fitter. Kiss And Make Up has won his only two starts and his effort to beat Capitalist in the Todman Stakes was superb as he produced a sustained display of speed and power. Flying Artie’s effort to get up for second in the Blue Diamond was extraordinary and he looks likely to get the right run here. He will be very strong late in the Slipper. Astern is a real talent but barrier 16 makes it tough for him although it didn’t stop Vancouver last year.

LISTEN TO THE SUPERRACING PODCAST PREVIEW OF SLIPPER DAY

Dufficy: A great Golden Slipper. These two Melbourne colts of Mick Price’s, Extreme Choice and Flying Artie, have the best figures as far as sectional times are concerned and both are very good but it is a big ask peaking again after the Blue Diamond. I’m very confident about a colt at big odds — Telperion. He is a lovely colt and we should forget he went around last start when the track bias was totally against him and he was ridden too negatively. He was left with an impossible job and it was a total forgive run. He will be in the second half of the field with cover on Saturday, he is a strong colt and will be coming home with a big finish. At $26, he is over the odds as I have him rated a $15 chance. His stablemate, Astern, is the danger. I have been with him all the way through, he is a quality colt and I like the fact he had a solid barrier trial last week. The outside barrier is obviously a concern but his jockey James McDonald can do freakish things. I respect Flying Artie, a colt with a lot of upside. He should settle much closer from his inside draw but the negative is that he hasn’t even had a barrier trial in Sydney, that is the negative or he could easily have been top pick as his Blue Diamond effort was a cracker. Extreme Choice is a natural and a great chance while Kiss And Make Up rounds up my top five. He is unbeaten, very tough and how knows how good he is. I also want to give Capitalist another chance as the position he was in during the run last start was a no-go zone all day, not one horse did anything chasing outside the leader. He was six weeks between runs and pulled up with muscle soreness so he had excuses. Is there any other chances? I would say no although I do feel Good Standing will turn out to be the best of these as a three-year-old.

Thomas: Can any filly figure in the Slipper finish?

Dufficy: I would be surprised if the fillies finished in the top six.

TAB market movers: Extreme Choice $2.80-$3.20 ($3,000 @ $3.20), Flying Artie $6-$5 ($1,500 e/w @ $5/$1.91, $1,000 @ $5, $600 @ $5, $500 @ $5), Astern $11 unchanged ($1,000 @ $11), Kiss And Make Up $11-$9.50 ($3,000 @ $11, $1,000 @ $9.50), Capitalist $11-$8 ($1,000 e/w @ $9.50/$2.88), Calliope $17-$26, Defcon $17-$26-$21 ($400 @ $26)

Nic Ashman’s race analysis

SPEED: Scarlet Rain, Kiss And Make Up come across with Extreme Choice. Capitalist in behind, Good Standing off rail with cover.

RUN-ONS: Flying Artie through the middle, Calliope, Astern down the outside.

R8: THE GALAXY (1100m)

Thomas: What a race, so many chances. Fell Swoop ran a blinder in the Oakleigh Plate, finishing fast for second and I feel he was unlucky not to have won. He gets into this race with only 52.5kg, he will enjoy the hot tempo upfront and he does have a strong finishing burst. Fell Swoop handles all track conditions and in a really tough race. I’ve got him on top from English who was outstanding first-up in the Challenge Stakes. She has a shocking draw but Tommy Berry will look to ride her with cover and then give the filly a chance to unleash her brilliant turn of foot. Terravista is the best horse in the race but he is coming off a little setback which forced him out of the Newmarket Handicap last week. He has drawn well and should get the right run. Rebel Dane is racing very well and I rate Dothraki great value at $21.

Fell Swoop, left, flashed home for second in the Oakleigh Plate last month.

Dufficy: I agree, Ray, this is a tremendous race. Perhaps they should take it back to Randwick so we can have more runners. I think Rebel Dane gets is chance to win another Group 1 here. He is a class horse coming back in distance but he can react at this trip. He has been around the mark in some really good races of late and I’m hoping he can find a back to follow then peel off and sprint quickly late. I’m also worried about that setback Terravista had last week but he is an outstanding sprinter with fantastic credentials for this race. Fell Swoop doesn’t have to get too far back early and I have him right in this race. Bounding is a very good mare who is a definite chance. I’m not knocking English, she is a very good mare with loads of ability but I feel she needs a dry track so I will evaluate her chances closer to the race.

TAB market movers: Terravista $8-$6 ($600 @ $8, $300 @ $7.50, $300 @ $6.50), English $4.40-$4 ($1,000 @ $4.40), Fell Swoop $5.50 unchanged ($500 x $200 @ $5.50/$2.12, $600 x $100 @ $5.50/$2.12)

Nic Ashman’s race analysis

SPEED: Ball Of Muscle, Lord Of Sky dispute lead from inside gates with Malaguerra dropping in behind them.

RUN-ONS: English flies late down the outside, maybe Lumosty too. Terravista, Fell Swoop and Bounding through the middle.

DUFF’S SUGGESTED BETS

BEST BET

Race 6, No. 1 TARZINO

OTHER BETS

Race 3, No. 2 COUNTERATTACK

Race 4, No. 4 HAURAKI

BEST VALUE

Race 1, No. 10 BLENDWELL

Race 7, No. 9 TELPERION

TAB MARKET MOVERS

ROSEHILL

Race 1: All Cerise $5-$4.40 ($1,000 @ $4.80, $1,000 @ $4.40), Sweet Fire $13-$9

Race 2: Auvray $7.50-$6.50 ($500 @ $7.50, $300 @ $7.50), Maurus $5-$4.60 ($1,370 @ $5)

Race 3: Counterattack $8-$5.50 ($400 @ $8, $350 @ $7, $200 @ $5.50 MULTIPLE TIMES), Santa Ana Lane $13-$12-$13 ($500 @ $13), Puritan $18-$15 ($500 @ $18, $1,000 @ $16), Speak Fondly $8-$6 ($600 @ $8, $350 @ $8, $200 @ $7)

Race 9: Bring Me The Maid $17-$10, Brook Road $8-$7 ($313 @ $8, $350 @ $7.50, $500 @ $7), Vezelay $21-$14

Race 10: Bull Point $6-$5.50 ($500 @ $6, $300 @ $5.50), Nancy $6-$5.50

Originally published as Saturday Best with Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy