Saturday Best with Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy

TAB BIG BETS: Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy discuss the main chances at the big Group 1 meeting at Randwick on Saturday.

PRESS Statement is close to a good thing, Capitalist can regain Golden Slipper favouritism, and I Am Zelady can claim the “Get Out Stakes”.

Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy and The Daily Telegraph’s racing editor Ray Thomas agree on the above trio in what is shaping as an intriguing day of racing at Royal Randwick on Saturday.

R1: REISLING STAKES (1200m)

Thomas: Honesty Prevails only has to turn up in the form she showed winning the Widden Stakes and she will secure her place in the Golden Slipper. She is a very good filly with a terrific turn of foot, and she has a soft draw here. I can’t tip against her. Calliope didn’t handle Caulfield but she was very good in the Gimcrack Stakes at her only previous start. Quick Feet also had no luck at Caulfield but is highly regarded by Team Snowden. Super Too was impressive on debut and is an improving filly.

Dufficy: I have Honesty Prevails on top as well but I’m not as bullish as you. I thought she was outstanding winning the Widden Stakes with authority and she gets the chance on Saturday to stamp herself as a chance in the Golden Slipper. I’m very wary of Calliope. She was so good winning the Gimcrack Stakes last spring and I have to give her another chance after Caulfield. Zelady’s Night Out is no pushover. She has won three race and Tony Gollan would not bring her to Sydney unless she was on top of her game. I also agree that Quick Feet can jump out of the ground.

TAB market movers: Honesty Prevails $2.30-$1.95 ($2,300 @ $2.30, $1,000 @ $2.30, $1,000 @ $2.10 TWICE, $500 @ $2.05)

NIC ASHMAN’S RACE ANALYSIS

Who will lead and who will come from behind at Randwick on Saturday.

TRACK: Rail true typically favours away from the fence — down middle around six to 12 metres off.

SPEED: Genuine — Super Too bounds out looking to hold the lead from Zelady’s Night Out with French Fern possibly dictating how fast they go.

RUN ONS: Honesty Prevails posted good time on debut and has the number one finishing sprint so far ahead of Calliope.

R2: TODMAN STAKES (1200m)

Thomas: This is almost race of the day — a cracking contest. I think Capitalist is the real deal but he will have to show it here. Capitalist has blinding acceleration and is an absolute professional. No knock on Godolphin’s Tessera. He’s a tough colt with the ability to rise to the occasion. I don’t know how good Weatherly is but the boom on him is enormous. Capitalist can win and regain Golden Slipper favouritism, Ronnie.

Dufficy: It is a shame we have to have this race before the Golden Slipper as the “picket fences” align here. I’m also leaning to Capitalist but this is a race where I’d prefer to look and learn. Capitalist has a high cruising speed and wonderful acceleration which will take him a long way in this small field. He hasn’t run time yet which is the only box he hasn’t ticked yet. I’m terrified of Weatherly as he has really laid his cards on the table at Flemington with a brilliant win. The Melbourne two-year-old form looks very good because they are running fast times when compared to the older horses on the same day but that hasn’t been happening at Sydney. Tessera is the ultimate professional and will also be very competitive. I’ve got Capitalist on top but I’m not going to have a bet here, I will just sit back and enjoy the race.

TAB market movers: Capitalist $1.90-$1.70 ($6,000 @ $1.80, $4,000 @ $1.80, $2,000 @ $1.80, $1,000 @ $1.90), Weatherly $7-$5.50-$5 ($500 @ $7, $3,000 @ $6, $2,000 @ $6, $1,000 @ $5.50, $2,000 @ $5), Defcon $7-$9.50

NIC ASHMAN’S RACE ANALYSIS

SPEED: Moderate — Does the Godolphin horse, Tessera, push forward and control the race? Kiss And Make Up will be right up and there with Capitalist parked behind them in clear galloping room.

RUN ONS: Capitalist looks the one. He’s got three lengths on anything in this field based on current figures. Weatherly could have gone quicker last time — watch.

Capitalist can reclaim favouritism for the Golden Slipper with a win on Saturday.

R5: CANTERBURY STAKES (1300m)

Thomas: Another small field but an intriguing race. I think Holler may lead and Our Boy Malachi can take the drop in behind him. But if Our Boy Malachi ends up in front, that suggests they are not going really hard and Tommy Berry can dictate. Either way, Our Boy Malachi is going to be very hard to run down. He toyed with Solicit in the Expressway Stakes and that mare has since come out and won in course record time at Randwick. First Seal’s comeback win was very good, Holler will appreciate going back to 1300m. and Kermadec will be flying home.

Dufficy: Good race. I think this race comes down to what Holler does — whether he hands the lead to Our Boy Malachi or if he has a go himself and makes a race of it. I’ve always been taught ‘‘good horse, good price, good bet” and that is the case with Kermadec. It is very rare for Chris Waller to start a horse’s campaign with blinkers on and that tells me the horse is ready to go. He is being trained like a sprinter-miler and will be very hard to beat. I respect Our Boy Malachi who had a nice little freshen up with a trial last Monday and be hard to catch. I’m First Seal’s biggest fan but she was $3.60 last start in a much weaker race and she stays at the same trip. Criterion is a topliner with $7 million in the bank.

TAB market movers: First Seal $3-$2.80 ($750 @ $3, $1,000 @ $2.80), Holler $7.50-$7 ($4,000 @ $3.16 place)

NIC ASHMAN’S RACE ANALYSIS

SPEED: Genuine — Holler pressures Our Boy Malachi, who looks to lead with Ecuador in behind.

RUN ONS: First Seal has race fitness, Happy Clapper residual fitness while Kermadec and Criterion have posted the biggest sectionals out of the lot — interesting race.

R7: RANDWICK GUINEAS (1600m)

Thomas: Impossible to tip against Press Statement. He overcame a wide barrier to romp away with the Caulfield Guineas last spring and I don’t think the wide barrier will stop him in the Randwick Guineas either, particularly as there is a long run to the first turn from the Randwick 1600m start. I’ll trust Hugh Bowman to get the job done and Press Statement will be too good. Stay With Me has been in two unsuitable sit-sprint races where she has run well but on Saturday the step up to 1600m will suit her. Le Romain and Montaigne both ran very well to finish in the minor placings in the Hobartville but Press Statement handled them easily that day and should do so again.

Dufficy: I can’t tip against Press Statement, either. He can adapt to any situation, I’m not worried about the wide draw as this colt can push forward in a race where there questionable speed. His class should prevail. Montaigne will run well as he will enjoy getting back out to the mile. Stay With Me sets up perfectly for this third-up from a spell and on a quick back-up. She has had a lovely grounding for this race. Shards did nothing last start but he was very good first-up and I expect he will improve.

TAB market movers: Press Statement $1.60-$1.40 ($5,000 @ $1.50, $3,500 @ $1.60, $1,200 @ $1.60, $1,000 @ $1.60 TWO TIMES)

NIC ASHMAN’S RACE ANALYSIS

SPEED: Moderate — Kiwi gallopers Dal Cielo and Mackintosh go forward, Man Of Choice could settle closer this time from better draw.

RUN ONS: Press Statement has lengths on them in terms of overall times and expect him to finish over the top of them.

Talented filly English resumes in the Challenge Stakes. Picture: Simon Bullard

R8: CHALLENGE STAKES (1000m)

Thomas: I like Rule The River at big odds here. She is going to get a nice run tucked in behind a hot speed, she loves Randwick and is effective at 1000m. Ball Of Muscle usually takes a run or two to strike his very best form but his recent trials suggest he is very forward for this race. English is trialling exceptionally well, Shiraz is brilliant fresh and Felines is another who excels at the Randwick 1000m. This race should be a great spectacle but I like Rule The River each way.

Dufficy: Another terrific race. I’m with English here. I have to trust my eye as she has been a long time off the scene but her two trials have just been absolutely brilliant. She has blinding speed and can round them up. The danger is the Melbourne visitor Kinglike. He has looked great in a jump-out and trial in Melbourne and I respect Peter Moody’s decision to send him to Sydney. The last time I saw Lord Of The Sky he nearly beat Chautauqua in the TJ Smith Stakes last autumn. Speak Fondly may find 1000m too short but she did great things last spring.

TAB market movers: Kinglike $11-$9.50, English $4.60-$3.80 ($650 @ $4.60, $800 @ $4.20, $400 @ $4.20)

NIC ASHMAN’S RACE ANALYSIS

SPEED: Ball Of Muscle and Lord Of The Sky share lead with Speak Fondly tucked in behind them.

RUN ONS: Expect Kinglike, Shiraz and English to storm home as can Boss Lane and Felines with fitness edge.

R9: WENONA GIRL QUALITY (1200m)

Thomas: Talking of super trials, I Am Zelady’s recent trial win was stunning. She is coming off a brilliant win in the Magic Millions and is a mare on the rise. The danger is Private Secretary but she will be giving I Am Zelady a start from the turn and this might be a replay of the Gold Coast Magic Millions fillies and mares clash when these two mares ran the quinella.

Dufficy: I agree, Ray. I’m trusting the Magic Millions form and I’m keen on I Am Zelady. She has a high cruising speed and with her dash she can put a field away quickly. Her recent trial was outstanding. I am also am a big fan of Private Secretary but she has had a little setback a few weeks ago and that could make a difference here. Artistry did a great job last preparation winning four from five and is another mare continuing to improve. If there is anything at odds it could be Something Secret who comes off a nice trial effort.

TAB market movers: I Am Zelady $4.60-$3.50 ($567 e/w @ $4.60/$1.80, $567 e/w @ $4.20/$1.71, $1,000 @ $4.20, $500 @ $4), Private Secretary $5.50-$5 ($500 @ $5.50)

NIC ASHMAN’S RACE ANALYSIS

SPEED: I Am Zelady could get loose lead, Something Secret and Flashing Speed hold forward spots.

RUN ONS: I’ve Got The Looks has sharp sprint — needs smother, Supara, Private Secretary, Press Report and Cradle Me big finishers.

I Am Zelady will be hard to beat in the last at Randwick. Picture: Grant Peters

DUFF’S SUGGESTED BETS

Race 3, No. 9 LIBRAN

Race 5, No. 2 KERMADEC

TAB MARKET MOVERS

RANDWICK

Race 3: Beyond Thankful $26-$17, Allergic $3.50-$3.10-$3.50 ($2,000 @ $3.50), Libran $6-$4.60-$4.20 ($1,000 @ $4.60)

Race 4: Adorabeel $7-$6 ($1,000 @ $7, $500 e/w @ $6/$2.05), Heavens Above $6-$3.80 ($800 e/w @ $6/$2.05, $500 @ $4.80, $400 e/w @ $4.60/$1.75, $900 @ $4.20)

Race 6: Serene Majesty $51-$15 ($1,000 e/w @ $15/$4.20), Egyptian Symbol $11-$6

FLEMINGTON

Race 1: Lazumba $7-$6.50, Data Point $2.50-$2.30 ($300 @ $2.50, $750 @ $2.40, $544 @ $2.40)

Race 2: Alter Call $7.50-$6, Creativity $10-$4.80 ($200 @ $10, $500 @ $7.50, $800 @ $6, $900 @ $5)

Race 3: Miss Seton Sands $7-$5.50

Race 4: Real Love $2.70-$2.90 ($1,500 @ $2.90, $885 @ $2.90)

Race 5: Red Bomber $15-$10 ($220 @ $15), Big Memory $13-$11, Zebrinz $16 unchanged ($500 @ $16)

Race 6: Lumosty $4-$2.80 ($1,000 @ $4, $750 @ $3.80, $650 @ $3.80, $500 @ $3.60)

Race 7: Xtravagant $3.80-$3.30 ($1,000 @ $3.80 MULTIPLE TIMES, $1,900 @ $3.50, $1,500 @ $3.50), Mahuta $7-$9-$8.50 ($550 @ $7, $500 @ $7.50 TWICE, $700 @ $9), Snoopy ($1,000 @ $11 place), Perfect Reflection $11-$9

Race 8: Jessy Belle $9.50-$7.50, My Sister Lil $15-$8.50

Race 9: Divan $4.60-$3.30-$3.40 ($500 @ $4.40, $1,000 @ $4.20, $2,000 @ $3.80), Spreadeagled $6-$5.50, Himalaya Dream $13-$11 ($2,000 e/w @ $13/$4)

Originally published as Saturday Best with Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy