Saturday Best with Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy

TAB BIG BETS: The Daily Telegraph’s Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy dissect the main races at Rosehill on Saturday.

THE Daily Telegraph’s Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy dissect the main races at Rosehill on Saturday.

R4: STAR KINGDOM STAKES (1200m)

Thomas: I don’t think there is much between the leading few here and the odds have me leaning to Angels Beach. She ran well first-up, with Alberto Magic stalking her all the way and grabbing her near the line. Angels Beach is awkwardly drawn but she will strip fitter and is out to $6, which is value. Alberto Magic is undefeated second-up from a spell and is drawn to get the right run again. He is the one to beat. Malaguerra was brilliant first-up and the Freedman stable thought he would have been hard to beat in The Galaxy last week if the sprinter got a start. The big danger. Bachman ran a blinder first-up and a repeat effort would put him in the finish.

Dufficy: I think Malaguerra has all the form in the world. He is really talented, has the right draw to sit just off them and 1200m is ideal after he won so brilliantly first-up over an unsuitable 1000m trip at Flemington. If the track gets to a soft 5 or worse then this race is back in Alberto Magic’s favour. Even on top of the ground we know Alberto Magic is a very good sprinter and he will improve off his first-up win. Bachman was unlucky last start and can leap out of the ground here. Target In Sight is a swooper with good fresh form, Hugh Bowman rides and he is worthy of consideration. No knock on Angels Beach but I can’t fit them all in. I’m pretty keen on Malaguerra.

TAB market movers: Malaguerra $3.40-$2.70 ($1,000 @ $3.40, $700 @ $3.40, $300 @ $3.20, $1,212 @ $2.80, $700 @ $2.70, $600 @ $2.70), Coolring $21-$17-$12

R5: TULLOCH STAKES (2000m)

Thomas: I know there is some concern about Old North third-up at 2000m but I feel he will enjoy getting out to a middle distance. He was unlucky to be beaten in a four-way photo in the Phar Lap Stakes and is worth another chance. River Wild has been racing well without luck at his past three starts and this is easier than his competitive effort in the Rosehill Guineas last week. Man Of Choice was very good in the Phar Lap Stakes and is back to his right distance range here. Impossible to fault Hattori Hanzo who goes into this race with a picket fence next to his name.

Dufficy: I’m with you — Old North is big, raw and talented. There are a few people who say he is a risk at 2000m because of the way he finished off last stat but I believe that was more because he missed the start then the pace slowed mid-race which made it tough for him. He has a lot of upside and I love the way he lengthens stride. I’m happy to be with him. Hattori Hanzo got the job done last start and Multifacets has looked good winning two of his past three starts. I’m very wary of Predator.

TAB market movers: River Wild $5-$4.40 ($1,000 @ $5, $350 @ $4.60), Balmain Boy $17-$15 ($450 @ $17)

R6: VINERY STUD STAKES (2000m)

Thomas: Jameka is clearly the one to beat — perfect barrier, ideal trip, and a filly working up to her best form after three runs from a spell. She is coming off a very good effort in the Rosehill Guineas last week when third to Tarzino. She is back against the fillies here and at level weights. Believe is in her first preparation but is promising, bred to stay and good value at $26. Stay With Me and Risque will run well, Happy Hannah is highly promising and a winning chance after gaining a start. Self Esteem also a hope at $51.

Dufficy: I think we will see a very good filly here in Risque. She was brilliant winning her Australian debut then was beaten a half length by Palentino and Tarzino in a very strong Australian Guineas. She is back in fillies grade, drawn well, maps to get the right run, and she outpointed Jameka (fifth) in the Australian Guineas and I feel she can do so again here. Jameka is obviously the danger. She looked to be carrying good condition last week and I liked what I saw from her behind Tarzino. I’m very wary of the New Zealand fillies Capella and Valley Girl. They have similar, consistent formlines and look classy fillies — but I have Risque as my on-top selection.

TAB market movers: Jameka $3.50-$3.60 ($1,000 @ $3.60 TWICE, $600 @ $3.60, $500 @ $3.60), Risque $4.60-$3.80 ($2,800 @ $1.75 place)

R7: THE BMW (2400m)

Thomas: Our Ivanhowe is a very talented stayer and a third placegetter to Mongolian Khan in the Caulfield Cup last spring. Our Ivanhowe has raced without luck in both his runs this campaign but gets out to 2400m and is ready to produce his best form. Mongolian Khan is unbeaten in three 2400m races, all at Group 1 level, and his fifth in the Ranvet Stakes last week was encouraging. Preferment has the tactical nous of Hugh Bowman riding him and that is a big plus, while Rising Romance is a definite chance.

Dufficy: I was very keen on Our Ivanhowe but I am just a little guarded now after learning he has a little issue with a hoof. If he lines up in this race then I’m comfortable to stick with him as he looks the horse to beat. You have said it all about Mongolian Khan but he is a top class stayer and Murray Baker would not be running him unless he has the horse in good order. Preferment was brilliantly ridden in the Australian Cup and he has upside as it was only his second run this preparation. Grand Marshal is flying and is up to his right distance range.

TAB market movers: Mongolian Khan $6 unchanged ($1,000 @ $6), Preferment $3.50-$3.40 ($5,000 @ $3.50, $1,000 @ $3.40, $800 @ $3.40), Our Ivanhowe $4.60-$4.20-$4.40, Rising Romance $11-$9.50

R8: EMANCIPATION STAKES (1500m)

Thomas: Solicit takes career-best form into this race where she is well suited by the set weights and penalties conditions. She was very brave in the Coolmore Classic last start and prior to that ran a track record over the Randwick 1400m. She will lead and take plenty of running down. Zanbagh’s run in the Coolmore was an eye-catcher and she is the danger. Telepathic comes out of the same race where she was also competitive and Badawiya was dominant first-up and has a good winning strike-rate.

Dufficy: There is real value her with Zanbagh. She is flying for John Thompson and with hopefully a slightly softer track she will be hard to beat. She is in dashing form. So too is Solicit. She will roll forward from her wide barrier, take control up front and will be hard to catch. Lady Le Fay was very good first-up carrying a big weight and is back to mares grade here. The Melbourne boys tell me Badawiya is outstanding. She has a very good turn of foot and there is a lot of confidence in the camp.

TAB market movers: Solicit $2.80-$2.40 ($8,000 @ $2.80), Badawiya $4.20-$5-$4.60

Zanbagh looks great value at Rosehill on Saturday. Picture: Jenny Evans

R9: DONCASTER PRELUDE

Thomas: Excess Knowledge, who ran seventh in the Melbourne Cup last spring, showed his versatility first-up when he ran so well to close late for second in the Ajax Stakes two weeks ago. Stays at 1500m but is being set for the Doncaster Mile next week and still has the speed in his legs. Rudy comes right into this race particularly if the track is in the soft range. Sadler’s Lake has drawn off the track but with any luck he can be in the finish and Cosmic Cube was impressive first-up and is the best outsider.

Dufficy: There is no early speed in this race and the only go-forward horses are Excess Knowledge from his inside gate and Cosmic Cube can slide across early. I really like Excess Knowledge, there was a lot of merit in his first-up run, he won this race last year and he can win it again. The danger is Rudy who has good second-up form, the track won’t be as hard as it was for him when he resumed and it all points to him improving out of sight. I’m interested in Beaten Up. He has gone really well in two trials and first-up last preparation he was less than two lengths from them in a Warwick Stakes which is good credentials for this race. Amovatio on the back-up has a chance, too.

TAB market movers: Excess Knowledge $5-$4-$3.80 ($1,000 @ $5, $2,000 @ $4.60), Beaten Up $18-$12 ($225 @ $18, $200 x $600 @ $18/$5.25)

DUFF’S SUGGESTED BETS

BEST BET

Race 3, No. 2 IT’S SOMEWHAT

OTHER BETS

Race 5, No. 7 OLD NORTH

Race 6, No. 5 RISQUE

Race 9, No. 1 EXCESS KNOWLEDGE

TAB MARKET MOVERS

ROSEHILL

Race 1: Federal $6-$5.50, Rockolicious $7-$6, Sonic Swish $9-$7.50

Race 2: Crafty Cop $9-$5-$4.80 ($350 @ $8.50, $300 @ $7.50, $650 @ $6, $550 @ $6), Wine $14-$10 ($280 @ $14, $200 @ $12)

Race 3: It’s Somewhat $4-$2.50 ($300 @ $4, $300 @ $3.60, $400 @ $3.20, $400 @ $3)

CAULFIELD

Race 1: Gretna $9-$6-$5.50 ($500 @ $8, $200 @ $5.50)

Race 2: Loving Home $4.20 unchanged ($1,000 @ $4.20)

Race 4: Petits Filous $1.80-$1.90 ($750 @ $1.85)

Race 5: Miss Promiscuity $4-$4.20-$3.90 ($600 @ $4.20), Sabatini $3.50-$3.20

Race 7: Guest Of Honour $51-$15 ($100 @ $51, $300 @ $35, $200 @ $26, $400 @ $21,

$300 @ $18)

Originally published as Saturday Best with Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy