Saturday Best with Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy

TAB BIG BETS: The Daily Telegraph’s Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s Ron Dufficy discuss the main chances in the big races at Rosehill and Flemington on Saturday.

THE Daily Telegraph’s Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s Ron Dufficy discuss the main chances in the big races at Rosehill and Flemington on Saturday.

HOT TIPS: WEEKEND BETS

R4: Silver Slipper (1100m)

Thomas: Godolphin’s highest-rated juvenile Astern resumes off a short let-up. Astern earned rave reviews in his debut win and he looked very good in a recent barrier trial win. Defcon is a very talented colt coming off an easy barrier trial on Monday. He is the danger. Mount Panorama is an improving colt and could be the knockout horse.

Dufficy: Astern looks the real deal. He is an outstanding colt and to be regarded as the stable’s number one seed for the Golden Slipper is a big thing as they have a few very nice horses. I want to lay my eye on him in the yard but if he looks the part, he will win. I’m very interested in King Of War. He was in the market at his debut in October when more was expected of him but his trial on Monday was way above average. I’m also wary of Mount Panorama, particularly now he has a firm surface. Defcon could win but I don’t like any sort of setback going into a big race.

TAB market movers: Astern $1.90-$1.60 ($1,000 @ $1.90, $800 @ $1.80, $600 @ $1.80, $3,000 @ $1.70, $900 @ $1.70)

R5: Millie Fox Stakes (1300m)

Thomas: Two of my favourite mares, First Seal and Catkins, clash here. I respect I’ve Got The Looks and Press Report is always underrated and over the odds but this looks a race between the top two mares. I just can’t ignore Catkins’s phenomenal first-up statistics of seven wins from nine starts, she loves Rosehill and is unbeaten over this trip. First Seal is on the comeback trail but she has looked good in her trials and an exhibition gallop. Great race with Catkins slightly on top.

Dufficy: I’m a sucker for First Seal, I keep jumping on her back. She was a beaten favourite at her last three starts but obviously had a hoof issue which was troubling her. She has had a good grounding for her return, she has been in work a long time and has had two barrier trials and an exhibition gallop. I can see her getting to a much better price than what she is now and I have her on top. As for Catkins, you said it all, Ray. All the statistics in the world are with her. A two-horse race.

TAB market movers: Catkins $2.20-$2.10-$2.30 ($4,000 @ $2.20), Ive Got The Looks $8.50-$6

R6: Hyland Sportswear Hcp (1350m)

Thomas: I don’t know where to go here with some horses resuming, others out of form, some who haven’t won’t for a long time. I have selected Religify but with no great confidence. I thought there were some encouraging signs from him last start. I know he is a risk at the trip but he is very fit and I think he might be able to control this race from up on the speed. I wanted to tip Farolitos but his record suggests he might need a run to strike top form. Bold Circle is an each-way chance.

Dufficy: Yeah, tricky race but I want to back two horses here — Spy Decoder and Man Of Choice. Spy Decoder looks very well graded in this race. He has been thrown in the deep end a few times in his career but his two trials looked OK and is a talented horse on his day. Man Of Choice hasn’t had an official trial but is an underrated horse. He ran third in the Spring Champion Stakes and was also placed in the Gloaming Stakes. Man Of Choice is a horse that interests me nice and fresh. If Farolitos is trained up then he is right in this race.

R7: Hobartville Stakes (1400m)

Thomas: Spill The Beans was strong late in the Eskimo Prince Stakes so who is to say he won’t run the 1400m? I know he was trained right up for that race and that is another reason I’m going to stay with him here. He is very fit and will take catching. I concede Press Statement is all class and if he is close to his top, then he probably blows this field away. Le Romain and Montaigne have been excellent so far this campaign and I’m giving Wolf Cry another chance as I expect they will ride him more aggressively early.

Spill The Beans scored an impressive win in the Eskimo Prince Stakes.

Dufficy: I think Press Statement is a real racehorse. He has a similar profile to his stablemate Winx last week with two barrier trials and an exhibition gallop. He is a winner and the horse to beat. Shards is at ridiculous odds at $21. He ran very well first-up and will only improve. If they make a mistake here then Shards will pounce. I respect the authority of Spill The Beans’s first-up win but he still has to tick the 1400m box for me. Wolf Cry, on a drier track, can improve.

TAB market movers: Press Statement $2.80-$2.50 ($500 @ $2.80, $600 @ $2.60), Dal Cielo $15-$11, Too Good To Refuse $51-$21, Montaigne $11-$9.50

R8: Parramatta Cup (1900m)

Thomas: Allergic is flying but his last two wins were on rain-affected tracks and he strikes a firm surface here, which this horse doesn’t really like. But I’m banking on the Rosehill track having some cushion and Allergic can continue on his winning way. The danger is definitely Libran. He ran a blinder first-up and will only keep improving. He is a stayer to follow. Hasselhoof and Arab Dawn will run a race, too.

Dufficy: I rate Libran a very, very good stayer, I really like this horse and I think he can win the Sydney Cup. He was very good first-up and will appreciate the extra distance. He needs a good ride from an awkward barrier but no jockey is riding in better form than Brenton Avdulla so I will leave that to him. I would have declared Libran an absolute certainty if he was third-up from a spell. Allergic is in career-best form and there is no knock on him except the jar is out of the track here. I can make a case for Beyond Thankful and Arab Dawn.

TAB market movers: Hasselhoof $4.60-$3.50 ($500 @ $4.60, $1,100 @ $3.80, $1,100 @ $3.70, $1,000 @ $3.50), Allergic $2.60-$2.40-$2.80 ($3,100 @ $2.60), Alpha Beat $8-$10-$9.50

R9: Get Well Kerrie Wilson Hcp (1100m)

Thomas: Brook Road has drawn the car park so to speak and will need a solid tempo but if she can find some cover then she will win. This mare is dynamite fresh so it all comes down to tempo and there is enough speed drawn inside her to ensure she can get over and settle midfield. With even luck she wins. Esgrimidor was very good at Canterbury last month and Got The Goss will run his usual competitive race.

Dufficy: I know she is a mare giving weight to the boys but, fair dinkum, Brook Road has a lap on this lot. She looked airborne in her barrier trial at Gosford and her fresh form is nearly untouchable. I feel she is just about a certainty and all she needs is to get on a back and she can still be three deep and blouse this field.

TAB market movers: Brook Road $4.20-$3.50 ($1,000 @ $4.20)

FLEMINGTON

Delectation, right, and Terravista, left, will clash again in the Lightning Stakes. Picture: George Salpigtidis

R7: Lightning Stakes (1000m)

Thomas: It is almost a contradiction to say a 1000m sprint could become a battle of tactics but this is what could happen in the Lightning. Chautauqua has the best finishing speed of any sprinter in Australia, he is dynamic fresh and loves the straight track. I’ve got him on top from Exosphere, who has trialled like Phar Lap in Sydney. He did race below par up the Flemington straight on Derby Day but that was primarily due to the horribly biased track. Terravista is a big-match player and Delectation enjoys straight racing.

Dufficy: For me, this is a no-bet, look and learn race. It will be a fantastic spectacle but I struggle to bet with confidence in Flemington straight races because they can be run like barrier trials and it makes them very tricky affairs. I do think Exosphere is a superstar and I agree he should be forgiven for that straight-track failure last spring. His two recent barrier trials have been champion quality. Chautauqua is the number one sprinter in the land, and Japonisme and Delectation have been giant-killers previously and are there to do it again.

TAB market movers: Chautauqua $2.60-$2.40 ($530 @ $2.60, $2,500 @ $2.50, $1,500 @ $2.50), Exosphere $2.40-$2.60 ($4,000 @ $2.60)

DUFF’S SUGGESTED BETS

ROSEHILL

Race 1, No 5 TO BE SURE

Race 4, No 2 ASTERN

Race 8, No 7 LIBRAN

Race 9, No 1 BROOK ROAD

TAB MARKET MOVERS

ROSEHILL

Race 1: To Be Sure $3.20-$2.60

Race 2: Maurus $11-$8, Voilier $3.60-$4.60

Race 3: Rose Of Man $3.80-$2.60 ($300 @ $3.80, $1,200 @ $3.40)

FLEMINGTON

Race 1: All Cerise $3.40-$3 ($420 @ $3.40, $1,600 @ $3.20, $300 @ $3), Marli Magic $7-$5 ($800 @ $7, $900 @ $6)

Race 2: Weatherly $4.20-$3.90 ($500 @ $4.20, $400 @ $4, $500 @ $3.90)

Race 3: Afleet Esprit $6.50-$6 ($2,500 @ $6.50)

Race 4: Pemberley $2.90 unchanged ($500 @ $2.90, $300 @ $2.90)

Race 5: Jameka $3.80-$4-$3.80, Perfect Reflection $2.60-$2.20 ($1,000 @ $2.60, $2,000 @ $2.50, $1,000 @ $2.50)

Race 6: Palentino $3.20-$3.40-$-$3.10 ($600 @ $3.20, $500 @ $3.20, $300 @ $3, $1,000 @ $3 TWICE), Bon Aurum $14-$13 ($200 e/w @ $13/$3.66)

Race 8: Puccini $15-$10, Dan Zephyr $7-$5

Race 9: Yesterday’s Song $6-$7 ($367 @ $6, $500 @ $7), Supido $2.70-$2.40 ($835 @ $2.70, $500 @ $2.60, $450 @ $2.40)

Originally published as Saturday Best with Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy