Saturday Best with Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy: Rosehill preview

TAB BIG BETS: THE Daily Telegraph’s Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy discuss the main chances at Rosehill on Saturday.

THE Daily Telegraph’s Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy discuss the main chances at Rosehill on Saturday.

R5: SCHWEPPES HCP (1500m)

Thomas: Falkenberg and Chandana, two very good fillies, are set to fight out the finish — and they might do the same in the Queensland Oaks later this campaign. Falkenberg has had nearly a month between runs but was super winning by a big margin over 1600m at Warwick Farm. Chandana ran well at Randwick first-up and will keep improving as her distances increase. Montauk will improve in this easier grade and Imposing Lass has a chance, too.

Dufficy: Tricky race but I’m a Chandana fan. She is a nice filly working towards the Oaks. I’m leaning her way to beat Falkenberg who is just out of a Benchmark 67 but she has style and quality. Montauk is an improver third-up on his home track. He was unlucky first-up then wasn’t far away behind He’s Our Rokkii at Randwick. Multifacets also has good carnival form.

TAB market movers: Imposing Lass $8-$4.20 ($399 @ $8, $300 @ $6.50, $1,000 @ $5.50)

R6: TAB MORE THAN JUST WINNING HCP (1400m)

Thomas: I’m basing my selections on a dry track and given those conditions, I like Unequivocal. This mare needs a firm track and although she is weighted right up to her best, she comes into this race in very good order. Her form has been very good this campaign but the soft track was against her at Randwick last start. Sort After looks promising and should measure up to Saturday class. Lani Girl has ability and is good value at $21 and if the rain does come Sweet Kiss would probably go to the top of my selections.

Dufficy: I’m also working on a dry track and I get your point with Unequivocal, she needs a dry track but I’m with the Scone mare Sahara Chill. She was good second-up at Warwick Farm where she was held up and should have finished closer. Sahara Chill has won six races and five of those are at 1400m. She did win third-up last preparation and I see value in her. Tremezzina is on the quick back-up but she is the danger. Sort After looks progressive but is at rock bottom odds. The best long shot is Parraay.

TAB market movers: Parraay $26-$13-$10 ($200 e/w @ $26/$6 TWICE, $300 @ $13)

R7: BOWERMAN’S OFFICE FURNITURE HCP (1500m)

Thomas: His Majesty hopefully finds some cover here, settles midfield and then his acceleration will give him a decisive edge over the last 200m of this race. Himalaya Dream can surprise if left alone in front, High Midnight won well when resuming and has been kept fresh for this race, Spy Decoder can improve and Sapphire Of Patch stays under notice.

Dufficy: His Majesty is top pick for me as well. He had excuses in a farcically run Provincial Championships Final last start and did well to finish a close third. He has something about him, he has good acceleration, and with more speed in this race I’m convinced he will get the chance to produce that lethal acceleration. High Midnight is the danger. He is a last-start winner and the James Cummings stable is in great form. Farolitos is fresh for this and he can run very well. Man Of Choice ran very well in the Phar Lap Stakes over this course and distance two starts back and I give him a real chance, too.

TAB market movers: His Majesty $4.80-$3.80-$3.20 ($500 @ $4.80, $2,000 @ $3.40), High Midnight $5-$4.80

High Midnight has been kept fresh for Saturday’s race. Picture: Simon Bullard

R8: MCGRATH ESTATE AGENTS HCP (1350m)

Thomas: I’m staying with the Kim Waugh stable and Hetty Heights. She is a mare who gets back in her races but she simply got too far back in the Provincial Championshisp Final and her effort to run sixth was excellent given the lack of speed upfront early in that race. Well Hardley Ever is definitely the danger. He was very good at Warwick Farm second-up and is going to get the run from his soft draw. Turbulent Jet likes Rosehill and will be running on well and Painte is in very good form.

Dufficy: Well Hardley Ever has been a horse that was a little weak and immature early in his career but he seems to have returned a much stronger horse this preparation. Both his runs have been very good since he resumed including his dominant win at Warwick Farm last start. James McDonald sticks with Well Hardley Ever and from the favourable barrier he should be able to box-seat and be very hard to beat. Hetty Heights should be able to settle closer from her good draw and she does have a really good sprint. Painte is a tough, on-pace horse and maybe Rockolicious can improve.

R9: TAB.COM.AU HCP (1100m)

Thomas: If Mogador produces his best here he will win. Princefamous is usually dynamic first-up and comes into this race off a trial win, albeit without being overly impressive. Alart is an underrated filly racing well and Glenbawn Dame won well in Brisbane first-up and will add value to your multiples.

Dufficy: Mogador is my bet of the day. He was trucking through the inside and he powered past the line. Hopefully he can race a little closer than midfield and I feel he can “blouse” this field. Grunderzeit’s trials suggest he is right up to the mark for this race and he gets in well with Samantha Clenton’s claim. Fiftyshadesofgrey can run well and Freeze The Charges can give them some cheek.

TAB market movers: Princefamous $11-$7 ($250 x $200 @ $11/$3.50, $200 @ $11 TWICE, $500 @ $9, $500 @ $7.50), Mogador $4.80-$3.70-$3.50 ($450 @ $4.80, $300 @ $4.40, $500 @ $4)

Princefamous has an excellent first-up record. Picture: Simon Bullard

DUFF’S SUGGESTED BETS

BEST BET

Race 9, No. 10 MOGADOR

NEXT BEST

Race 3, No. 4 MURPHY’S DELIGHT

BEST VALUE

Race 6, No. 11 SAHARA CHILL

TAB MARKET MOVERS

ROSEHILL

Race 1: Reincarnate $2-$1.80 ($2,000 @ $2)

Race 2: Gretna $4.50-$4.20 ($500 @ $4.50)

Race 3: Murphys Delight $4.20-$4 ($250 @ $4.20, $200 @ $4 TWICE)

Race 4: Galaxy Warrior $4.60-$2.70 ($350 @ $4.60, $300 @ $3.50, $5,000 @ $3.30, $4,000 @ $3, $400 @ $3.30), Oh So Unfair $15-$6.50 ($200 @ $13, $1,250 @ $9.50, $500 @ $8.50).

Boo Baliey’s cartoon tip for Rosehill

CAULFIELD

Race 1: Decoco $4.80-$4.40, Vintage Quartz $11-$7 ($200 @ $8, $250 @ $7, $200 @ $7)

Race 2: Pilly’s Wish $6.50-$5.50-$6 ($700 @ $6.50, $500 @ $6), Grey Street $3.20-$2.70 ($500 @ $3, $300 @ $2.90, $2,000 @ $2.80)

Race 3: Raw Impulse $2.10-$1.85 ($400 @ $2.10, $300 @ $2.10, $500 @ $2.05, $700 @ $2, $500 @ $1.95)

Race 5: She’s Miss Devine $2.80-$2.60 ($2,000 @ $2.80), Telopea $4.60-$3.90 ($400 @ $4.60, $1,000 @ $4.20)

Race 6: Backstreet Lover $6.50-$5 ($250 e/w @ $6.50/$2.37, $900 @ $6.50), Abbey Marie $7 unchanged ($1,000 @ $7)

Race 7: Saint Valorem $11-$9-$10 ($800 @ $11, $1,200 @ $9.50)

Race 8: Under The Louvre $6-$5 ($250 e/w @ $6/$2.25, $1,000 @ $5.50), Sheidel $4.80-$4.60 ($2,000 @ $4.80)

Originally published as Saturday Best with Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy: Rosehill preview