Saturday Best with Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy: Rosehill Gardens

TAB BIG BETS: THE Daily Telegraph’s Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy analyse all nine races at Rosehill on Saturday.

THE Daily Telegraph’s racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy analyse all nine races at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday.

RACE WATCH: DAVO’S TIPS FOR ROSEHILL

TOP TIPS: WEEKEND BEST BETS

RACING PODCAST: FRIDAY FILL UP

R1 (11.25am): ATC MEMBERSHIP ON SALE HCP (1400m)

Thomas: Hualalai made a strong run from back in the field but was unable to reel in Gaulois over 1350m here last start on a heavy track. The going should be better on Saturday which suits Hualalai, although the addition of blinkers is interesting as he has been ridden to take a sit in both runs this campaign. The danger is the first starter All Too Soon. I’m going to have a saver on her at odds as there has been very good reports about her in recent weeks and her trials have been super. Heliosphere and Condor are the other chances.

Dufficy: Hualalai’s last-start effort was great considering the circumstances and in the kind hands of Hugh Bowman he will be very hard to beat. I think Heliosphere is a real talent but is still raw and green. He is the main threat to the favourite. Condor did a good job on debut and appears a horse that will keep improving while I expected more from Arrestar last start and perhaps he is an improver.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Hualalai $2.90-$2.60 ($500 @ $2.90, $600 @ $2.60, $300 @ $2.60)

GAME ON: THRILL OF THE CHASE HAS HUGH RIDING HIGH

R2 (12pm): TAB.COM.AU HCP (1500m)

Thomas: Some of these have been butting heads in recent weeks and it has been Just Dreaming that has kept on winning. But I am leaning to High Mist slightly over the filly here. I know High Mist has been a little disappointing this campaign but he is at his peak after three runs from a spell and he was beaten less than a half length behind Just Dreaming last start. Just Dreaming keeps finds a way to win — how can you knock a filly that keeps getting the job done? Faraway Town has a class edge and there was a lot to like about her last-start effort.

Dufficy: The same horses meet here but Just Dreaming just keeps winning. She has shown great courage winning three of her last four starts and I can see her getting a soft lead then proving very hard to beat again. The danger is Faraway Town. She should be right for this after two runs back. Insensata was very competitive last start, looming up to win but was just outgunned late. She is in the mix in a similar field. High Mist has the ability to take care of this field but there is a little question mark on his desire.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Faraway Town $6.50-$4.80-$5 ($1,000 @ $6.50, $1,000 @ $5.50)

Just Dreaming, left, will be chasing her third straight win on Saturday. Picture: Jenny Evans

R3 (12.35pm): MCGRATH ESTATE AGENTS HCP (1900m)

Thomas: Domed’s effort to get up and win at Canterbury last start was astounding. She was held up, had to check off heels and then get to the outside but sprinted brilliantly to get up on the line. This is tougher again but Domed looks a very promising filly improving with racing and she should be in her element on the bigger Rosehill track. La Courbette has run well at her last two starts and comes out of the Collateral/Estikhraaj race at Canterbury and both of those horses have won since. Fournette was terrific overcoming a tough run to win last start and Fantasize is racing in good form.

Dufficy: I am really keen on I’ll Fly Away. I had my eye on her in a couple of Queensland races and feel she has been waiting for a rain-affected track over further which she gets here. Her formlines are better than her rivals. Domed is the danger. She was very good to the eye at Canterbury. Fournette also showed great courage to cover extra ground and still win last start and she is a filly on the rise. Like you, I also rate La Courbette a good chance as her last two runs have been encouraging and she should be running on strongly.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Domed $7.50-$5.50 ($399 @ $7.50, $1,000 @ $6, $250 @ $6, $200 @ $6)

Boo Bailey's cartoon tip for Rosehill

R4 (1.10pm): TAB HIGHWAY HCP (1800m)

Thomas: A big field with plenty of chances. I’m going wide with a longshot in Thunder Road. I thought his run the other day was good enough to suggest he is an each-way chance here. He is fitter, gets out to his right distance range, will appreciate the soft track and gets in very well at the weights. Kingsbridge is awkwardly drawn but he is putting together a nice record. O’Lordy and Last Try Wins are right in the mix and there are a number of other winning hopes, too. Tough race, Ronnie.

Dufficy: I can’t believe we are both tipping Thunder Road. I specked him at $31 earlier in the week and he has a bit of city form. He was five weeks between runs prior to his last start, this distance suits him better, the blinkers are back on with no weight. O’Lordy is showing a level of consistency that suggests he will run well — he only has to stay the trip to be in the finish. Mister Marmalade is also a distance risk but I think he is ready to improve and Barbass is going to get the right run on the speed.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Last Try Wins $9-$8 ($1,050 @ $9)

R5 (1.45pm): ATC WINTER CUP (2400m)

Thomas: Montauk is yet to win in 12 attempts at Rosehill but this might be his chance. He has continued to race well right through the season and gets his opportunity to show he can run a strong 2400m. He was closing late on Supply And Demand and Tucanchoo at the end of 2000m last start. Destiny’s Kiss is an evergreen stayer but his big weight is the leveller here. Gallic Chieftain was very good at Moonee Valley.

Dufficy: I’m in the Darren Weir camp with Gallic Chieftain. He dug in really well to win last start and is an improver. The timing going to 2400m fourth-up is perfect. Destiny’s Kiss is the danger. He has the blinkers back on and produced an excellent effort last week. Araldo Junior caught my eye last start and he is an improver. This is the right time to try Montauk at 2400m. He is racing well and is very fit.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Gallic Chieftain $2.70-$2.50 ($500 @ $2.70, $300 @ $2.70), Black Tomahawk $11-$9.50 ($400 @ $11, $200 @ $11)

R6 (2.25pm): TAB HANDICAP (1200m)

Thomas: Upscale showed last start that 1200m is not an issue for her when she ran the closest of thirds to Test The World over this course and distance two weeks ago. Upscale has been improved by two runs from a spell and will prefer the soft rather than heavy conditions. Fickle Folly was very good behind Sir Plush but has to prove she can run a strong 1200m. I’m convinced Romney’s Choice was going to be in the finish at Warwick Farm when she fell on the turn last start. She has been given plenty of time to get over that run and is a lightweight chance at good odds. Memes and Pioneering will be hard to beat.

Dufficy: I agree there are a few chances here. I expected more from Pioneering first-up but the more I studied the race it was apparent it became more a sit-and-sprint and she didn’t get the chance to run on given the sectionals. She paraded well that day and I want to give her another chance. Hetty Heights went well in a recent trial and she does have good fresh form. I expect her to be launching late. Upscale is a chance and you can’t knock Memes.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Memes $4.60-$4.40 ($1,000 @ $4.60)

R7 (3.05pm): CIVIC STAKES (1350m)

Thomas: I am very keen on Sir Bacchus. I know he is coming back slightly in distance but he has had a month between runs, this is his favourite track and he likes soft going. Shiraz ran a blinder in the Eye Liner Stakes at Ipswich and is not far off winning form. Invincible Knight was very good coming from last to win here two weeks ago and he has now put a couple of top runs together since returning from a spell. Gold Symphony was very game in the Stradbroke.

Dufficy: At first glance I thought Sir Bacchus would be top pick but then I did the speed maps and it looks to me like Girl Sunday will get all the favours. She will cross and either lead or sit outside The Monstar with run-of-the-race stuff. She goes very well over this course and distance, too. Sir Bacchus is the danger as he likes soft tracks and is racing well. Gold Symphony did overachieve in the Stradbroke, which is very good form for this race, where he is third-up and very fit. I agree Shiraz’s two runs back have been acceptable.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Gold Symphony $11-$7 ($222 @ $11, $500 @ $9.50, $700 @ $7.50), Sir Bacchus $4.20-$3.90 ($630 @ $4.20, $300 @ $4.20), Girl Sunday $15-$11 ($350 @ $12)

Gold Symphony, left, has been well backed to win the Civic Stakes.

R8 (3.45pm): SCHWEPPES HCP (1100m)

Thomas: Sir Plush was devastating first-up, sprinting away from Badajoz and Fickle Folly to score easily. He has returned in terrific form, he will strike a more suitable track surface here, and he can win again. Calanda has been racing without any luck in recent starts but back to a handicap on the limit weight I expect he will be finishing hard. Top Striker comes off a terrific summer preparation where he raced very consistently on good tracks but he also has an excellent record on soft tracks. Princefamous is trialling well but needs an improving track while Oxford Poet has to carry the grandstand but he looks to be flying judging on his recent barrier trial wins.

Dufficy: I was very keen on Princefamous before we had that shower early Thursday morning which put the track back to a soft 7. I’m gambling on the track improving as he maps perfectly, he’s been trialling well and can run a race at good odds. Sir Plush was very dominant first-up and Bjorn Baker’s horses are flying. I Am Gypsy is an interesting runner from Adelaide with depth to her form and now with the Matt Dale stable. Calanda sets up with his light weight and I think he will be charging home late.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Sir Plush $2.80-$2.40-$2.20 ($500 @ $2.80, $622 @ $2.70, $650 @ $2.50, $5,000 @ $2.50, $500 @ $2.40, $1,000 @ $2.30, $1,000 @ $2.20), Calanda $6.50-$7- $6, King Darci $9.50-$8.50-$11 ($500 e/w @ $9.50/$2.83)

R9 (4.25pm): #THORACES HANDICAP (1500m)

Thomas: Carzoff was run down by Collateral and that horse won again last week. It is strong form for this race with Carzoff third-up from a spell and very fit now. He is coming back from 1800m to 1500m and has an awkward barrier to contend with but he is shaping as the one to beat. King Viv is a very promising horse coming off a slight setback. His two wins to start this campaign were impressive. Magical Stance has come up well and rates highly again and Pick Me Up is very consistent but has to overcome a wide barrier.

Dufficy: I’m convinced Carzoff is the best horse in the race. He may have needed the run the other day when jumping to 1800m second-up from a spell but it took an in-form horse in Collateral to beat him. He has to come back to 1500m which is the gamble and also try to get a spot from an awkward barrier but if everything falls into place for him, he should be too good for them. Kiseki Dane wasn’t beaten far last start and is back out to his right trip here. Of the others, Obsidian did enough first-up and can only improve. Pick Me Up is a nice horse but has to prove himself at this distance range.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Carzoff $2.90-$3 ($350 @ $3, $300 @ $3, $300 @ $2.90), Dream Lane $21-$17-$18 ($1,000 @ $21)

DUFF’S BEST BETS

BEST BETS

Race 3, No. 2 I’LL FLY AWAY

Race 5, No. 3 GALLIC CHIEFTAIN

BEST VALUE

Race 4, No. 11: THUNDER ROAD

Race 7, No. 12: GIRL SUNDAY

SATURDAY EXTRA

SHAYNE O’CASS’ BEST BETS

NEWCASTLE

BEST BET: RISALDAR (Race 6, No. 3)

Superbly bred Sepoy son of the former ace 2YO Dorky, now the dam of Listed winner Quidnunc et al. The trials have all been good, in fact that last one was outstanding. Loaded with talent.

NEXT BEST: SAINT DENIS (Race 2, No. 7)

A striking gelding resuming from a lacklustre campaign but he is bred to get better as time passes. Trialled up for this and it is hardly a strong line-up. Has scope.

VALUE: HIGH DREAMER (Race 8, No. 1)

is a High Chaparral son from the Paul Perry camp. He is third-up at the 1600m now and note that he is three wins from four starts at the mile.

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

JEFF PENZA has the Provincial Jockey’s title in the bag already but he looks like he might extend the gap to second by a few more today — he could ride four or five today.

SUGGESTED BETS

Exacta — Race 2, No. 7 to beat No. 8

Daily Double — 1st leg (3), 2nd leg (1)

QUADDIE

Race 5: 1,2,4,7

Race 6: 3,12,13

Race 7: 3,4,7

Race 8: 1,4

GUNDAGAI

BEST BET: FIRE STOKER (Race 6, No. 2)

Nick Olive trained two-year-old taking on older horses but he’s only a month of being three and his form reads better than his rivals anyway.

NEXT BET: QUINT AUSTRALIS (Race 2, No. 11)

Very fit mare coming off a sound placing at Dubbo to a handy horse. Steps to 1800m — good enough to test these.

Originally published as Saturday Best with Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy: Rosehill Gardens