Saturday Best with Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy: Hawkesbury preview

TAB BEST BETS: THE Daily Telegraph’s Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Duffficy look at the major races at Hawkesbury on Saturday.

THE Daily Telegraph’s racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Duffficy look at the major races at the Hawkesbury stand-alone meeting on Saturday.

R3: CLARET STAKES (1300m)

Thomas: Godolphin has a strong hand here including Radcliffe who reeled off impressive sectionals to catch Sezanne at Warwick Farm last start. Sezanne was beaten out of a place at Canterbury midweek which is a slight worry but Radcliffe looked a good horse the way he let down to beat her last start. Radcliffe has drawn well and should settle closer than he did at Warwick Farm. His stablemate Flow is the danger. I’m banking this primarily on the colt’s good barrier trial efforts and also the bullish description of him by trainer John O’Shea who says Flow is a “very, very nice horse” and not in this race to make up the numbers.

Dufficy: I’m happy to hear you say that as I’m with Flow. I’ve loved the way he moved in his two trials, one in January and one in April. He looked to be cruising outside a smart horse in Kiss And Make Up in the first trial. I just like everything about him except James McDonald is not riding him, he is on Radcliffe. I don’t think Radcliffe is an even money chance so I’m happy to be with Flow to beat Ajani. I suspect Ajani is a big improver as his trainer, Peter Snowden, along with the Godolphin stable, always target the Hawkesbury stand-alone meeting.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Ajani $6 — $5, Flow $8 — $6 ($700 @ $8), Lubiton $15 — $9.50 ($300 @ $13, $400 @ $11).

R4: HAWKESBURY RUSH (1100m)

Thomas: A good sprint. I know Furnaces was terrible first-up and you need to be brave to stick with him but I’m going to give him another chance. On his day he is a very talented sprinter and he did run third behind Chautauqua at weight-for-age during the sprint. He has had two trials since that Randwick failure and he has gone very well in each. If he turns up on his best form he will be the one to beat particularly as he is so well weighted. Kuro trialled sensationally at Hawkesbury last week. He is back with Joe Pride now where he has produced his best form. Coolring is very tough and Alberto Magic is a real talent but he has plenty of weight.

Dufficy: I’m with you, Ray, I have to forgive Furnaces that one bad run. John O’Shea has given Furnaces two nice, soft trials and the colt looks to be in good form in these trials. I will trust their judgment to continue with this horse’s preparation. He is beautifully placed here under this weight scale. I feel Fine Mist is the danger. She has won at Hawkesbury and loves this distance. I know she is returning after a wind operation but if she will get the last look at them and be finishing hard. Kuro and Inz’n’out are good chances, too.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Inz’n’out $4-$3.80

Inz’n’out has been well backed to win the Hawkesbury Rush. Picture: Simon Bullard

R6: GODOLPHIN CROWN (1300m)

Thomas: Two Blue did me a favour when she won at Randwick at big odds last start. Perhaps, I’m letting my heart rule my head (again!) but I’m going to stick with her on Saturday. Admittedly, she is up 5kg to 59kg and probably prefers the sting out of the ground but she is drawn in barrier four and will be in front for a long way. She is very genuine and around $10 she is great each way value again. Ammirata was terrific first-up and she is developing a very good record now with four wins from her last five starts. Nancy hasn’t been far away in her three runs this time in and she could easily win a race like this. The drying track suits Cradle Me who gets back but will be flying home.

Dufficy: When the market first came up I couldn’t get onto Peace Force quickly enough at the $26. The market has since been adjusted but I do like her chances on Saturday. She wasn’t suited first-up when from an outside barrier she was dragged her back to last before making ground late off a moderately-run tempo where Two Blue dictated in front. This is a totally different race. Peace Force has barrier one, she can box-seat, she has great second-up form and is the best value runner of the day. Cradle Me is the danger. She is going well and the good track rating helps here. The same can be said for Artistry — her only poor runs have come on soft tracks, You said it all about Ammirata, she is certainly a mare in form. Good race but I’m very keen on Peace Force.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Two Blue $15 — $9.50, Artistry $11 — $9.50, Peace Force $26 — $12 — $11, Cradle Me $11 — $8 — $9.50, Nancy $6 — $5 ($1000 @ $6, $500 @ $5)

R7: HAWKESBURY GOLD CUP (1600m)

Thomas: This is one of the strongest Hawkesbury Cups I can remember. However, despite the big field which often generates pace there isn’t a lot of genuine upfront tempo aside from Strawberry Boy and Ecuador. I think Strawberry Boy can roll across from his wide barrier and run the race to suit himself in front. He was great first-up under a big weight when third to Mighty Lucky, he drops to 57kg Saturday on a track where he is unbeaten in two attempts and over a distance he excels. Sons Of John won this race last year and goes into the Cup first-up today. This is a very talented horse who has trialled well in recent weeks and I can’t get out of my mind his first-up effort last spring when second in the Theo Marks Stakes behind the champion Winx. Medcaut will get the right run and the underrated Mighty Lucky can run well again.

Dufficy: It is a good Hawkesbury Cup. I hope I am not going off one run early but I like Pajaro. He resumed at Randwick in the Mighty Lucky race and looked above himself in condition but ran an enormous race for fifth. From barrier one, he could just box-seat on Saturday and get every opportunity. I concede Strawberry Boy is the horse to beat. He has good second-up statistics, he is two for two at Hawkesbury, and he is going to be up on the speed. Sons Of John was sensational first-up last spring behind Winx, although that was 1300m. It is an interesting move to run him first-up Saturday at 1600m but trainer Jason Attard knows his horse and I will back his judgment. Less Is More went OK first-up and is a knockout chance at odds along with Amovatio who is drawn right off the track.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Strawberry Boy $7 — $5.50 — $5 ($400 @ $7), Sons Of John $15 — $8, Shoreham $35 — $17.

R8: HAWKESURY GUINEAS (1400m)

Thomas: I was looking for horses away from the favourite but I keep coming back to Handfast. I thought he was outstanding in the South Pacific Classic, his turn of foot was excellent, and he gapped his rivals that day. He has won three of his four starts this preparation and seems to be getting better with every run. Handfast has drawn nicely and run of the race stuff should go his way again. Serene Majesty caught my eye last start and is on the improve, No More Tears is another who rates highly and Sir Plush has to make a quantum leap in grade on Saturday but his bush wins indicate he is above average.

Dufficy: I’m a big Handfast fan. He has really turned the corner since being gelding and then with the addition of blinkers last start he was explosive. Handfast sprinted away from Santa Ana Lane at Randwick to win very easily. It was hard not to be impressed by that win and even harder not to tip him here. Denmagic is an improver. She wasn’t suited by a moderately run race last start and will be good late in this race. Spill The Beans is the class runner but is a query at 1400m, and Red Extension is a good longshot. He was a late nomination and is way up in class but is a very likeable horse and a big improver. But Handfast for me — he is one of the safest bets at Hawkesbury on Saturday.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Handfast $2.60 — $2.50 ($1000 @ $2.60), No More Tears $8 — $7, Serene Majesty $15 — $12 ($500 e/w @ $15/$3.66), Red Extension $51 — $15 — $17 ($400 @ $26, $500 @ $21, $600 @ $17), Denmagic $6 ($500 @ $6).

DUFF’S SUGGESTED BETS

BEST BETS

Race 2, No. 6 Hipparchus

Race 8, No. 2 Handfast

BEST VALUE

Race 6, No. 4 Peace Force

TAB MARKET MOVERS

HAWKESBURY

Race 1: Noble Joey $4.60 — $4.40 — $3.80 ($450 @ $4.40, $575 @ $4)

Race 2: 4) Duca Valentinois $3.50 — $3.20 — $2.80 ($500 @ $3.20), Hipparchus $4.40 — $3.80 — $3.50.

Race 5: Gamblestown $15 — $8 ($500 @ $9.50), Rock For the Ladies $5-$4.20 ($500 @ $3 THREE TIMES, $516 @ $4.60, $450 @ $4.60, $1,500 @ $4.40), Danish Twist $6 — $5 — $6.

Race 9: Trafalgar $4.20 — $3.80, Mackintosh $10 — $7.50 — $7.

Originally published as Saturday Best with Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy: Hawkesbury preview