Saturday Best with Ray Thomas and Mike Fraser

TAB BIG BETS: THE Daily Telegraph’s Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Mike Fraser look at the main races at Rosehill on Saturday.

THE Daily Telegraph’s racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Mike Fraser look at the main races at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday.

HOT TIPS: WEEKEND BEST BETS

BEAT THE BOOKIE: VALUE BETS

R4: ATC WINTER CUP (2400m)

Thomas: Trainer David Payne’s decision to change riding tactics on noted frontrunner Foreign Prince throws all the speed maps out the window and makes this a very intriguing tactical battle. But I keep coming back to the Team Hawkes stayer Tucanchoo. He is racing in great form and comes off that good second to Index Linked in the Tatt’s Cup at Eagle Farm last week. Loophole is fitter for three runs back from a spell but the 2400m is a query. If this race does develop into a sit-and-sprint affair, then Loophole is a definite chance. Junoob has plenty of weight but is the class stayer of the field and Foreign Prince is racing in great form but is a risk at the trip.

SPORTSMAN PREVIEW: ROSEHILL

Fraser: I don’t know what to do now. You have thrown a spanner in the works saying Foreign Prince is not going to lead because I thought he would canter in front and take running down. I am going to stick with him even though he hasn’t ticked that 2400m box. He has a great affinity at Rosehill, hopefully he will get a soft enough run and have a kick at the finish. Loophole has had three runs back now and meets Foreign Prince 5.5kg better at the weights. Tucanchoo is coming off two restricted wins then struck that boggy track in Brisbane which didn’t suit him. Junoob has the form over this distance and is coming off some solid runs in Queensland, including his third in the Brisbane Cup so he has to be respected.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Jiayugan $11-$8

David Payne will change tactics with Foreign Prince on Saturday. Picture: Gregg Porteous

R6: CLUB MARCONI HCP (1500m)

Thomas: I’ve been really taken by Suboric’s two wins at the provincials this time in. He has been strong to the line in both races and although this is a quantum leap into Sydney Saturday grade I think there is a lot to like about the way he is progressing this campaign. Lanciato was very good at his Australian debut when he looked likely to win only to be ambushed late by Dinghu Mountain, who was brilliantly ridden. Lanciato should be suited by the 1500m.

Fraser: I like Classic Uniform who is fitter for three runs back from a spell. His last two runs have been solid minor placings where he has been up on the speed in fast-run races and I like that in horses, they tend to get fitter quicker. His fourth-up form is good and getting back out to 1500m looks ideal. He can take control of the speed here and is ready to peak. Lanciato was super on debut where he was up on the speed and battled on well. The extra trip suits. Dubaiinstyle has only been placed once in seven starts here and his last three runs have been luckless but his racing patterns help him find trouble, while Dinghu Mountain was good last start but it was an ambush ride, he was tricked into winning.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Dubaiinstyle $26-$9.50, Lanciato $4.60 unchanged ($1,000 @ $4.60)

R7: CIVIC STAKES (1350m)

Thomas: Oxford Poet was just run down on the line by That’s A Good Idea in the At Sea Handicap then he ran a great third in the June Stakes. He couldn’t cross the field that day and was left three-wide facing the breeze. The two runners inside of him dropped out to run third-last and last but here was Oxford Poet, 200m out, still in front. He eventually ran third to the brilliant Danish Twist and Mount Nebo with the runner-up coming out and winning last Saturday. Snippets Land, Vergara and Ninth Legion are hopes.

Fraser: I think there are only two chances in Snippets Land and Oxford Poet. I am going with Snippets Land. He has very strong formlines with a terrific win in the Doomben Sprint two runs back then was very unlucky in the QTC Cup when fifth to Spill The Beans. He got shuffled back in the field and was still looking for a split at the 200m and was warming up late. From barrier two he should not have to get as far back early and if he can get a clear crack at them in the straight he will be hard to hold out. Oxford Poet is absolutely at the peak of his game and there is a lot to say he is the one to beat. Better Not Blue drops 5.5kg and if he gets a race run to suit he can place. Marenostro won well at his first two starts but he doesn’t go at Randwick and should be better suited here.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Oxford Poet $3.50-$2.80 ($400 @ $3.50), Vergara $15-$8, Snippets Land $6-$4.60 ($1,000 @ $4.60)

Oxford Poet has returned in good order this preparation. Picture: Simon Bullard

R8: HYLAND RACE COLOURS HCP (1200m)

Thomas: Most of these mares come out of the Butterboom race over this course and distance two weeks ago. I’m tipping a mare who ran last in that race, Wine Tales, to produce the ultimate form reversal and win this at very good each-way odds. She is still trying to get out from behind runners and went to the line hard held without being tested. She is a class mare on her day and at $11 I rate her a good chance. Flamboyant Lass was very brave when just edged out by Butterboom and will be improved going into this race. Butterboom appreciated the blinkers last start and she is a mare in form. We all saw Thud last start, she was unlucky and can definitely figure in the finish.

Fraser: It is like Groundhog’s Day with six of them coming out of the Butterboom race to the same course, distance and class of race here. Thud really ran an eye-catcher first-up and can argue she should have nearly won the race. She was luckless early in the straight and when she saw clear running she attacked the line strongly. Magic Of Dreams had a tough run and made a mid-race move before battling on really well in the straight to dead-heat for second with Flamboyant Lass behind Butterboom. She will race well again. Pioneering comes from a different formline but with the claims she is very well in here.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Thud $6-$5 ($500 @ $6), Flamboyant Lass $4.60 unchanged ($1,000 @ $4.60)

R9: TAB MORE THAN JUST WINNING HCP (1500m)

Thomas: At Rosehill two weeks ago, Avonaco beat Gambler’s Blues and Bold Circle over 1350m and beat them well. Avonaco is racing in great form but I was really impressed by Bold Circle’s comeback run that day. He did not have a trial going into that race and he came from well back on the turn with a powerful charge to run third. Bold Circle’s second-up statistics are super — two wins and a second from five attempts — and going to the 1500m he gets his chance at $10. I know Thurston has to come back in trip which is a real negative but this horse is going really well. Gambler’s Blues is very consistent and no knock on Avonaco.

Boo Bailey’s cartoon tip for Rosehill.

Fraser: You are right, this whole meeting is tough and this is a real difficult race. Consign’s last two runs for Chris Waller have been good and although awkwardly drawn he is an improver. Gambler’s Blues ran a good race behind Avonaco last start when he was in the worst ground over the final 300m. He is looking for 1500m now and just have to overcome the wide draw. I have an issue with Thurston coming back from 1800m to 1500m and he has a poor winning-strike record but he is racing well for the Waller stable. Bold Circle ran well first-up and can only be better with a firmer track.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Thurston $7-$6-$5.50 ($300 @ $7 TWICE, $400 @ $6)

MIKE FRASER’S SUGGESTED BETS

Race 6, No. 5: CLASSIC UNIFORM

Race 8, No. 10: THUD

* Ron Dufficy is on leave.

TAB MARKET MOVERS

ROSEHILL

Race 1: Octavian Augustus $6-$5-$4.60 ($200 @ $6, $1,000 @ $5)

Race 2: Piamimi $8-$7-$6

Race 3: Glenbawn Dame $4.60-$3.80

SATURDAY PREVIEWS

SPORTSMAN: CAULFIELD

SPORTSMAN: SUNSHINE COAST

SPORTSMAN: MORPHETTVILLE

Originally published as Saturday Best with Ray Thomas and Mike Fraser