Saturday Best with Ray Thomas and Mike Fraser

TAB BIG BETS: THE Daily Telegraph’s Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Mike Fraser discuss the main chances at Randwick on Saturday.

Ray ThomasRacing Editor

5 min read

July 8, 2016 - 3:35PM

Opinion

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THE Daily Telegraph’s Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central form expert Mike Fraser discuss the main chances at Randwick on Saturday.

HOT TIPS: WEEKEND BEST BETS

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RANDWICK

R5: MYBOYCHARLIE AT VINERY HCP (1200m)

Thomas: Painte is very fit and excels on heavy tracks. I know he has to carry 60.5kg but this horse is racing in great form. He should get the perfect run and is the one to beat. Cosmopol was disappointing last start but he never got into the race from his wide barrier. He ran well on a bottomless track at Warwick Farm earlier in his career and he is a lightweight chance. Powerline is very consistent but the heavy track is a concern, while Shadow Lord excels in the wet but he is creeping up in the weights.

Fraser: I’m agreeing with you, Ray. As you said, Painte is genuine, rock-hard fit and his last two runs, even though he hasn’t won, have been among his best efforts. He has drawn the rails so he can control his own destiny up on the speed. Burning Passion has been improved by two runs from a spell and I liked the way he battled on for second to Shadow Lord at Randwick a month ago. He was super impressive winning a barrier trial two weeks ago and is right in this race. Grande Punto’s last start effort should be forgiven, he had excuses, and it is worth going on his win at Rosehill in very heavy conditions two starts back. Powerline is a query on the heavy but he is racing very well.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Powerline $4.60-$4.20 ($1,700 @ $4.60), Painte $8-$6.50 ($300 @ $8, $300 @ $7)

R6: HERITAGE SOCIETY HCP (2400m)

Thomas: Defrost My Heart has to carry 60kg on heavy tracks but she does race well in these conditions. She has improved steadily at each of her four runs back this preparation and looked home for all money at Randwick over 2600m two weeks ago when she had a huge lead only to be run down late by Not A Gypsy. She is back to 2400m and has the genius of Hugh Bowman to guide her home. Dowdstown Charlie has to prove he can stay a strong 2400m but he does excel on heavy tracks. Lie Direct is a tough on-pacer and gets in very well at the weights with 51kg. Zatopaz disappointed last start but on his best form he would be the one to beat.

Fraser: Defrost My Heart was run down by lightweight horse last start. She is at her peak at her fifth run in and coming back to 2400m is a bonus. She is a good wet-tracker and is going to be hard to beat. Zatopaz was placed in three consecutive races up to 3200m but maybe that flattened him a little but back to the Randwick 2400m he can bounce back. Dowdstown Charlie is clearly the best wet-tracker in the race. Major Major has had five runs back, is fully fit, loves the wet and is a good lightweight chance.

R7: SHOOT OUT MILE (1600m)

Thomas: I’m keen on McCreery, Mike. He is a lightly raced galloper who resumed on a very heavy track over 1200m at Rosehill five weeks ago and ran well for sixth to Grande Punto. He has had an easy barrier trial last week to tune him up for this race, he won second-up at 1600m last preparation and gets out to that trip here. I’m banking on him handling the heavy track. Sebrina is a proven wet-tracker and I like the fact she is coming back from 2000m to 1600m as she is very fit for these testing track conditions. Bold Circle had no luck last week but he is worth another chance, particularly with an 8kg drop in weight. Farolitos is a Randwick mile specialist but he is up in weight here.

Fraser: Magical Stance is fitter for two runs back form a spell, including a terrific effort at Rosehill when he came from well back to run third. He then jumped to 1500m, ended up on the speed and close to the fence in the worst ground — he just had too much to do. It was a forgivable run and third-up over the mile he is ready to produce his best. Farolitos does go really well over the Randwick 1600m course, he loves the wet and his most recent win was his first start in 38 days so he will have derived benefit from the run. McCreery was very good first-up and has had a lovely, ‘cold’ trial since. He improved nicely between his first and second runs last time in and he only has to follow a similar pattern to be hard to beat. No knock on Sebrina. She is back to a mile and on a wet track so expect her to be very competitive again. There is not a lot between the top four in this race.

Farolitos usually saves his best for Randwick. Picture: Simon Bullard

R8: TAB.COM.AU HCP (1400m)

Thomas: I can almost make a case for every runner in this race, it is that open. But using your theme Mike of fit horses with proven wet track ability I leaning to Lycia each way. She has had two runs since a let-up and came off a good second at Canterbury to score brilliantly at Warwick Farm where she really powered to the line. Lycia handles heavy tracks and carries only 52.5kg after the claim. Extensible is the best horse in the race, I’m convinced of that, she has had two nice trials going into her comeback but the heavy track is a concern. Harlem Lady and Elle Lou have butting heads regularly this winter, both have been racing well and will be hard to beat.

Fraser: I’m with Lycia, too. She hit the line strongly to win at Warwick Farm last start, she loves wet tracks, is very game, has the lightweight and gets a beautiful run on the speed map with no pressure. Elle Lou is racing well with two wins and a third from three runs this winter, she gets through the ground but the barrier is a query. Flamboyant Lass is fitter for two runs back from a spell, she flies solo in front, and although 1400m is not her bad she goes like wet tracks. Tree Of Jesse has had two nice trials leading into this and she is one of the better wet-trackers at the meeting.

TAB MARKET MOVERS: Elle Lou $5.50-$4.60 ($200 @ $5.50, $300 @ $5, $250 @ $5, $400 @ $4.60, $300 @ $4.60)

R9: HYLAND RACE COLOURS HCP (1000m)

Thomas: Allez Chival has a good winning strike-rate and was competitive in her comeback race. She drew the rails barrier in the last race of the day at Randwick two weeks ago but the fence was “off” and she couldn’t get traction in the straight. Her effort to run fifth was very good under the circumstances. Allez Chival is unbeaten second-up, stays at her favoured 1000m distance and she is a real mudlark. Arise Augustus is as tough as they come and has never been racing in better form. He is over the odds. Cheeky Babe could blow this field away but she hasn’t been exposed to a heavy track before. Ever So Natural and Ocean Grand give trainer Cliff Bashford two good hopes in this race.

Fraser: For all the reasons you said, Ray, I’m also with Allez Chival. She is two from two second-up and not only that, she improves plenty with a run under her belt. She has no issues on the wet track and gets the right run. Cheeky Babe is another who has good second-up form. Minnesota likes the wet and is racing consistently. Ms Wicked Wanda is over the odds. She is racing in good form, loves heavy tracks, has no weight and will box seat from barrier one.