Saturday Best with Ray Hickson and Ron Dufficy

TAB BIG BETS: The Daily Telegraph’s Ray Hickson and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy pinpoint the main chances at Rosehill on Saturday.

Photographer: Simon Bullard. Race 1 ANZAC DAY HANDICAP (2YO) - 1100m. Winner 'Painted Firetail' ridden by James McDonald.

The Daily Telegraph’s Ray Hickson and Sky Thoroughbred Central’s form expert Ron Dufficy pinpoint the main chances at Rosehill on Saturday.

HOT TIPS: WEEKEND BEST BETS

BEAT THE BOOKIE: VALUE BETS

STABLE WATCH: INSIDE MAIL FOR ROSEHILL

R3: CANONBURY STAKES (1100m)

Dufficy: A few people are a bit hesitant with Defcon’s trials this time in compared to the explosive one before Christmas. He has a bad habit of missing the start but, ridden quietly, he can still overpower them. I’m respecting Mount Panorama, his debut was a total forgive run considering the boom on him coming into that race. Tessera looks the ultimate professional then we have first starters Guard Of Honour and Star Of Monsoon.

Hickson: I did like Star Of Monsoon’s trial, the way he got home in that trial was impressive and if he runs up to that he’ll be hard to beat. Defcon looked like a superstar in September but not quite that good recently. Tessera was good on debut and I’d also forgive Mount Panorama a bit.

TAB Market movers: Defcon $2.20-$2-$1.95 ($3,800 @ $2.20, $1,840 @ $2, $1,000 @ $2 TWICE), Star Of Monsoon $5-$3.90 ($1,000 @ $5, $300 @ $4.20), Guard Of Honour $13-$9.50 ($240 @ $13, $200 @ $11).

R4: WIDDEN STAKES (1100m)

FEATURE: GABBY JUST PREPARING TO BLOSSOM

Dufficy: I’m a fan of Aghna. I like what she did at her debut at Wyong behind Capitalist. She looked a bit sharper in her trial and I want to go with her, though I’d be a little concerned if we get too much rain. Honesty Prevails looked very good at the trials, has good gate speed and has had a good grounding. Smart Amelia looks big odds and So Serene also comes out of the Aghna trial and she looked to have some quality about her in that Inglis Nursery.

Hickson: There was plenty to like about Aghna’s trial. She looked to be doing it easily, they caught up to her but she must have been foxing to them as she got away again. Frightened of Honesty Prevails whose trials have been fantastic and So Serene has a chance on race form.

TAB market movers: Aghna $11-$4.60 ($300 @ $9, $200 @ $7, $200 @ $6), Honesty Prevails $6-$5. Deductions: Global Glamour 8c Win 9c Place.

R6: ASCEND SALES TROPHIES HCP (2000m)

Dufficy: I’ve been on Magical Stance twice and I see no reason to jump off. He was anchored by the weight last time but is better off here. He has the foot right on the till and 2000m after four runs is the right way to go. Another Cocktail will also be suited at 2000m and he is sure to be well fancied. Allergic is also a hope.

Hickson: Happy to stick with Magical Stance as well, he has to get the breaks sooner or later. I think it is a D-Day this preparation for Another Cocktail, he gets to 2000m now and I’d like to see if he’s got something. I thought Allergic was a good thing last start at Flemington but had no chance the way the track played.

TAB market movers: White Dove $11-$8 ($350 @ $11, $200 @ $9). Deductions: Award Season 8c Win 0c Place.

R7: EXPRESSWAY STAKES (1200m)

NEWS: SOLICIT POISED TO STRIKE

Dufficy: This is the race that revolves around the weather. At this stage, I’m happy to stick with Our Boy Malachi. There is a bit of talk about that trial on Monday where he came out slow but his first trial was great where he beat Solicit and Generalife. He has won on the soft but I prefer him on a drier track with his natural brilliance. Solicit and Big Money are also chances.

Hickson: As it stands, I’m quite happy to say Our Boy Malachi can win this race. Soft 6 or better I can’t see them beating him. Agree with Solicit as the other serious hope.

TAB market movers: Tiger Tees $15-$12 ($200 @ $15, $600 @ $14, $250 @ $12), Our Boy Malachi $2.80-$2.40 ($3,000 @ $2.80, $1,000 @ $2.60).

Our Boy Malachi has been well backed to win first-up. Picture: Mark Evans

R8: CELLARBRATIONS HCP (1350m)

Dufficy: I’m a Painted Firetail fan, she looks to have plenty of upside to her. We’re going to get a guide on that first-up run with River Wild running earlier in the day. You could see James McDonald trying to get off the fence into the better ground first-up but it just didn’t happen and she’s one of the better bets of the day. Miss Royale has been a beaten odds-on favourite twice and it is hard to knock a horse like Selita.

Hickson: Painted Firetail looks well placed. She handles the wet, drawn OK and is down in the weights. Selita keeps winning and you can’t fault her, Miss Royale had every chance to beat her last time but has run well each start.

TAB market movers: Painted Firetail $3.80-$3.30 ($2,000 @ $3.80, $2,000 @ $3.60, $1,000 @ $3.30, $1,500 @ $3.10).

R9: TAB.COM.AU HCP (1100m)

Dufficy: Only three chances here for mine. I’m very interested in this ex-Hong Kong horse My Favorite. I’ve loved his couple of trials leading into this, there’s a bit of a wet track query on him but if Clarry Conners decides to run he has him ready. Le Cordon Bleu was good first time in the blinkers at the Gold Coast and with the jar out of the track it will suit him. The other chance is Stravigo, he drops to 51.5kg and that’s going to capture everyone’s attention.

Hickson: I like Stravigo, I guess the concern is whether barrier one is a plus or minus come the last race. He’s an 1100m horse and we will see how the form stacks up out of the River Wild/Painted Firetail race during the day. Of the others, Supreme Effort was good last start and Sooboog has had a bit of a rap on him and has trialled well.

TAB market movers: Le Cordon Bleu $4.60-$4.40 ($500 @ $4.60, $300 @ $4.40), Stravigo $7-$5 ($300 @ $7, $680 @ $6.50).

DUFF’S SUGGESTED BETS

BEST BET

Race 8, No. 12 PAINTED FIRETAIL

NEXT BEST

Race 4, No. 4 AGHNA

Race 2, No. 1 HALFPENNY GATE

Gabrielle Englebrecht’s filly Aghna has firmed from $11 to $4.60 in the Widden Stakes. Picture: Mark Evans

TAB MARKET MOVERS

ROSEHILL

Race 1: Start Wondering $1.80-$1.70 ($500 @ $1.80, $600 @ $1.70, $500 @ $1.70).

Race 2: Istanbul $3.80-$3.20 ($300 @ $3.80, $1,500 @ $3.40).

Race 5: River Wild $2.35-$2.20-$2.30 ($1,500 @ $2.35, $900 @ $2.30).

FLEMINGTON

THE EARLY OIL: FLEMINGTON

Race 1: Supido $2.10-$1.85 ($1,000 @ $2.10, $500 @ $2, $4,000 @ $1.85).

Race 2: Lonrockstar $4.60-$4.50 ($400 @ $4.50).

Race 3: Noela’s Choice $4.60-$4.20 ($1,000 @ $4.60), Vital Importance $8-$5 ($350 @ $8, $400 @ $7, $300 @ $5).

Race 4: Second Bullet $2.70-$2.40 ($3,000 @ $2.70).

Race 5: Magna Rossa $11-$9 ($1,500 @ $11), Love Days $4.60-$5-$4.80.

Race 6: Duibio $6-$5 ($6,000 @ $6), Pattern $3.80-$3 ($700 @ $3.80, $2,000 @ $3.20).

Race 7: Wild Rain $3.70-$4 ($750 @ $4, $500 @ $4), Yesterday’s Song $8-$7, The Monstar $21-$15 ($1,000 @ $21), Headwater $13-$7.50 ($1,700 e/w @ $8/$2.64).

Race 8: Dig A Pony $7-$8-$6.50, Camdus $2.20 unchanged ($1,000 @ $2.20).

Race 9: Falago $17-$10.

Originally published as Saturday Best with Ray Hickson and Ron Dufficy