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Ray Thomas and Ron Dufficy’s tips, analysis for all 10 races on Randwick Guineas Day

A drop back to 1100m second-up looks a winning recipe for Ron Dufficy’s best bet at Royal Randwick on Saturday, while a Victorian raider also has a great chance late in the day.

Ray Thomas
10 min read
March 8, 2024 - 12:00PM
Punters Hold All Tickets 2024 (Episode 26) 09-03-24

The Daily Telegraph racing editor Ray Thomas and Sky Thoroughbred Central form expert Ron Dufficy discuss the big-race chances for the Randwick Guineas meeting at Royal Randwick on Saturday.

DUFF’S BEST BET

R4 No.7 FACILE

DUFF’S BEST VALUE

R10 No.3 C’EST MAGIQUE

R1: Midway Hcp (1600m)

Ron Dufficy: Difficult race. Although he has got a huge rise in weight, MAHAGONI (3) has been much better in stronger class than this of late. From barrier one, I think he gets the right run and he should be around the mark. MOUNTAIN GUEST (4) caught the eye first-up with limited room to move running on strongly. She’ll take benefit from that. CREAM RISES (7) has talent and just a little freshen up since the Bega Cup should have him ready to go here. His previous win was dominant. CUT ON A DIME (9) did enough first-up in town and he did run well in a couple of good races last preparation and just might have some upside.

Ray Thomas: MAHAGONI (3) is working his way back into form and he hit the line well to finish fourth behind Redstone Well over the Randwick mile course last start. He should be peaking after recent racing and he does excel over this course and distance. OUR MARYANNE (10) has drawn off the track but she’s returned in good form and has had a trial between runs. CREAM RISES (7) is racing in very good form and should get the right run from his middle draw. CUT ON A DIME (9) did enough first-up to suggest he has returned in good order and this course and distance is more suitable. Big watch on MOUNTAIN GUEST (4) who ran unplaced first-up but got back into an awkward spot on the inside then was held up at various stages in the straight before hitting the line generously.

R2: Reisling Stakes (1200m)

Dufficy: I don’t mind ERNO’S CUBE (2) here. She is a tough filly off a six-week break into the Silver Slipper last time. I just thought her form-lines read well for a race like this. EXTREME DIVA (6) is a tough little filly backing up from last week where she was very good. I think barrier one is a huge asset for her this time. TOO DARN LIZZIE (1) has had a couple of trials; she landed good bets winning on Magic Millions Day but I just don’t know about the depth of that form.

Thomas: I’m going wide here with NYMPHADORA (4). She ran a blinder in the Inglis Millennium, finishing sixth behind Fully Lit, beaten less than two lengths after racing four-wide without cover. The step up to 1200m won’t bother her and she can run a race at huge odds. EXTREME DIVA (6) is on the back-up after her close third to Manaal in the Sweet Embrace Stakes last week. She will get the soft run from her inside barrier. TOO DARN LIZZIE (1) has plenty of speed but the last 100m might test her. SILMARILLION (8) ran on strongly late for third on debut at Canterbury and will appreciate the bigger track.

R3: Randwick City Stakes (2000m)

Dufficy: Tricky race with a lot of these horses in at Canberra on Sunday. I’ll lean to CANBERRA LEGEND (10). I think Randwick will suit him. He has had a few excuses in his three Australian runs and he was good first-up after covering ground. I think MANZOICE (6) is a big improver. I like barrier one from this 2000m start and there was good improvement from one run to the next last time. ALMANIA (11) was specked at good odds and was just beaten by the bob of the heads second-up. Just a matter of whether he wants it softer. SERPENTINE (5) can pull out a run fresh and if he happens to find the front here, he will keep running. DIAMIL (4) was a little flat last start after a good first-up run and he can bounce back.

Thomas: CANBERRA LEGEND (10) was terrific first-up, racing three-wide without cover but he kept grinding away and was beaten less than a half length in the Parramatta Cup. He will go close with any luck in running. MANZOICE (6) is fitter for two runs from a spell and will appreciate the bigger track. DIAMIL (4) was a beaten favourite in the Parramatta Cup but he was only second-up and is worth another chance. BOIS D’ARGENT (3) is a handy stayer who invariably runs a competitive race at the start of a campaign.

R4: Fireball Stakes (1100m)

Dufficy: I really like FACILE (7) here back to 1100m. She has got a run under her belt, she has got a good draw, she can ride the speed and I think she is right in this race. KEENAN (4) is a horse I like. He is trialling well and I think with any luck from a sticky draw, he represents good value here. RED RESISTANCE (2) is a bit of a mystery. He looked a star this time last year. He’s had a long time out but he gets his opportunity here. BLANC DE BLANC (6) was very well fancied in Melbourne first-up where she pulled up lame so may be worth another chance for her.

Thomas: I’m interested in the return of RED RESISTANCE (2). He was a leading contender for the Golden Slipper last year only to be scratched on race morning. His recent barrier trials have been sharp and he will take plenty of catching. CONFESS OUR DREAMS (9) is a promising filly, unbeaten in three starts. She ran smart time winning at the Kensington track first-up and is not out of place at stakes level. FACILE (7) led for home in the Light Fingers Stakes before tiring late when fifth to Kimochi. She is a fast filly and 1100m is ideal. CORNICHE (1) is another former promising two-year-old resuming after a long spell. Class colt and one to watch.

R5: Todman Stakes (1200m)

Dufficy: Terrific race. I am disappointed with the barrier for ESPIONAGE (5), it makes it a lot tougher but I still can’t get away from him. I think he will have come on beautifully since the Silver Slipper and with any cover in the run here, I think he is very hard to hold out. SWITZERLAND (6) is a boom colt who hasn’t put a foot wrong – no knock on him. STRAIGHT CHARGE (3) is a natural running two-year-old and he gets all favours from the inside draw here. Just has to tick off the 1200m box but no reason he can’t. SHANGRI LA EXPRESS (1) is a good tough colt. The 1200m definitely suits him and he gets his chance to return serve here.

Thomas: This is a terrific race. SWITZERLAND (6) is drawn to get the gun run just in behind what is expected to be a hot tempo and he will be strong late. I think he can get the better of ESPIONAGE (5) who will take considerable improvement from his first-up second in the Silver Slipper. STRAIGHT CHARGE (3) held off Espionage last start and will be hard to beat catch again. The unbeaten BODYGUARD (4) was controversially withdrawn from the Blue Diamond but he has been cleared to run and he is talented enough to be in the finish.

R6: Challenge Stakes (1000m)

Dufficy: It’s not ideal staying at 1000m for PRIVATE EYE (1) but he just went too good first-up not to have him on top here. I think he is short enough but I have to be his way. I am terrified of PASSIVE AGGRESSIVE (6). Her trial and jump-outs in Melbourne were terrific and we do know that she did win the Challenge here first-up last preparation at this track and distance beating a hot field. MAZU (2) has had a couple of trials for the new stable. He has competed at the top level all the way through his career and I think he’ll run better than expected here. REMARQUE (3) has got that great first-up record and gets his opportunity also from that lovely stalking draw in barrier one.

Thomas: PRIVATE EYE (1) got left in front early in the Lightning Stakes and he made Imperatriz work hard to beat him when resuming at Flemington. He is likely to be ridden off speed here but he has a powerful finishing sprint and will be hard to hold out. REMARQUE (3) is flying at the trials and he has the ability to run fast time over this course and distance. He did beat In Secret in the Concorde Stakes first-up over the Randwick 1000m last spring. AFT CABIN (4) is a classy young sprinter who missed the spring carnival but has impressed at the barrier trials in recent weeks. PASSIVE AGGRESSIVE (6) won this race last year and rates highly again.

R7: Canterbury Stakes (1300m)

Dufficy: THINK ABOUT IT (1) makes a much-awaited return. He is an amazing horse and his record speaks for itself. He has to be hard to beat. ESPIONA (6) stands out as the logical danger. She was great first-up on the Lightning, setting her up nicely for this and is the main threat. PERICLES (2) is back a little in distance which is not ideal but he presents well third-up with a race fitness edge. COAL CRUSHER (3) was a little flat there second-up last week but blinkers back on this week, he’ll go better.

Thomas: THINK ABOUT IT (1) seems trained up for a winning return. His two trials have been impressive, he’s unbeaten in four starts at Randwick, he’s also won all four first-up attempts, and he’s won both his starts over the 1300m course. It’s hard to find a negative, even his outside barrier should not be a concern given there is so much speed drawn inside him. ESPIONA (6) was very good first-up finishing third to Imperatriz in the Lightning Stakes and she has the race fitness edge over Think About It. PERICLES (2) is coming back slightly in trip after a very good effort behind Mr Brightside in the Futurity Stakes. COAL CRUSHER (3) is on the quick back-up and is a tough on-pacer.

R8: Randwick Guineas (1600m)

Dufficy: I have to tip with the map here with MILITARIZE (1). He did enough first-up against the older horses at weight for age. He’s had a nice grounding with a couple of exhibition gallops since and he is ready for the mile now from the good draw. I was going to tip CELESTIAL LEGEND (3) all the way through but just that draw has just put me off a little here. He needs a good Kerrin McEvoy ride and if he does get the luck, he is right up there ability-wise. TOM KITTEN (2) was totally forgivable in both runs back and is getting to more like his distance range and he is ready to produce the goods. CEOLWULF (9) is a very good horse in the making. Not sure it’s his day but I can’t leave him out.

Thomas: MILITARIZE (1) ran on strongly behind Fangirl first-up in the Apollo Stakes and the form reads very well for this race. The three-time Group 1 winner is back against his own age and at level weights, he’s won at Group 1 level over the Randwick mile course and has also won at Group 1 level second-up from a spell. As you pointed out Ronnie, the barrier draw favours Militarize who should get the run of the race. CELESTIAL LEGEND (3) was very impressive in the Hobartville Stakes and gives the impression he should run the 1600m right out. ENCAP (4) endured a wide run and was very brave when second in the Hobartville and he will be competitive again. TOM KITTEN (2) has been improved by two runs from a spell, he will appreciate getting out in trip and on a track he enjoys.

R9: Aspiration Quality (1600m)

Dufficy: LEKVARTE (4) had a gap between runs last start but her previous form was excellent and she likes this track and distance. She is sure to be running on. I think the danger is her stablemate CITY OF LIGHTS (18). She is up in class but held in very high regard by the stable and I have got to cop the tip there. She was strong winning first-up as well. THALASSOPHILE (1) won this race last year, she is up in the weights, but certainly fits in well. YANKEE HUSSEL (11) is nice and fresh here off three big wins and looks over the odds considering she trialled very well recently.

Thomas: HOWGOODAREYOU (12) is worth another chance. She has been unplaced in both starts this campaign but back into a firm track and out to 1600m, she is ready to improve. She likes to control races from the front and will take running down. CITY OF LIGHTS (18) showed admirable determination and staying potential to win first-up at Canterbury. Promising mare and will be hard to beat. LEKVARTE (4) needed the run first-up but can bounce back here. I’ve also got YANKEE HUSSEL (11) in my numbers as she’s a mare with ability.

R10: Wenona Girl Quality (1200m)

Dufficy: I like the Victorian here, C’EST MAGIQUE (3). She has a poor winning strike-rate but was just a run short there in the Triscay. She strips fitter and from a good draw she should be right in the finish. QUEEN OF THE BALL (1) is a big improver. I think she was unsuited on the inside in a strong Rubiton there first-up. She maps well here from the inside draw and will be hard to beat. WEE NESSY (6) is in astute hands and wouldn’t be here unless she was in order. She has run well here at Randwick at her only attempt in the Arrowfield Stakes. CALL DI (5) is with Joe Pride now. She is capable if right although she is well found in the market at this stage.

Thomas: C’EST MAGIQUE (3) tried hard first-up when a close third to Semana in the Triscay Stakes. She’s drawn to get the right run and looks hard to beat in an open race. EAGLE NEST (12) is an emerging mare resuming after a very good campaign late last year. Her trials have been good and she sprints well fresh. CALL DI (5) has had a change of stables since she last raced but is a mare of quality and rates highly. QUEEN OF THE BALL (1) was disappointing first-up at Caulfield but she is a talented sprinter on her day and is advantaged by the rails draw.

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Original URL: https://www.goldcoastbulletin.com.au/sport/horse-racing/expert-opinion/ray-thomas-and-ron-dufficys-tips-analysis-for-all-10-races-on-randwick-guineas-day/news-story/4a998342fca83d5a2865ce48e47c3f25