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Chris Vernuccio assesses the lead-up form for the 2024 Melbourne Cup

He was favourite in last year’s Melbourne Cup and finished 14th, but Vauban looks the best of the raiders and can make amends.

Chris Vernuccio
5 min read
November 4, 2024 - 10:00AM
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Who will be the Melbourne Cup favourite when the barriers open at 3pm on Tuesday?

The answer isn’t as clear as recent years after confirmation Cox Plate champ Via Sistina would bypass the Cup and Aidan O’Brien import Jan Brueghel was ruled out by Racing Victoria vets.

Caulfield Cup runner-up Buckaroo returned to the top of betting, and is currently $6 with Ladbrokes, but moves could come for European internationals Vauban ($6.50), Onesmoothoperator ($8), Sea King ($10) or Absurde ($10), while there are plenty of others below them who will attract their share of support.

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This year’s Melbourne Cup may have lost some star power but there’s a fascinating uncertainty with Tuesday’s race as contenders emerge from all directions.

UK raiders Onesmoothoperator and Sea King showed up the locals with commanding wins in the Geelong Cup (2400m) and Bendigo Cup (2400m) respectively.

An impressed Craig Williams immediately put his hand up for the ride on Onesmoothoperator in the Melbourne Cup.

Sea King initially wasn’t sent to Melbourne to run in our greatest staying race but the attrition rate created an opportunity to move up the order of entry with a win at Bendigo.

Onesmoothoperator and Sea Moon both ran in the Ebor Handicap (2816m), crossing the line together in sixth and seventh.

The Ebor Handicap is yet to produce a Cup winner but that can change this year with Onesmoothoperator and Sea Moon having local runs.

While their form may not read as strong when lined up against Irish pair Vauban and Absurde, international performances aren’t always replicated here.

Vauban, meanwhile, will be out to emulate Twilight Payment in 2020 in his quest for redemption after last year’s disappointing 14th as favourite.

Twilight Payment produced an incredible frontrunning win in 2020 after finishing 11th the previous years.

Three other horses in recent years have won the Melbourne Cup at their second attempt – Fiorente (2012, second in 2011), Verry Elleegant (2021, seventh in 2020) and Without A Fight (13th in 2022), but Twilight Payment was sent home to Europe before coming back.

Vauban returns to Melbourne with arguably superior form, taking on some of Europe’s best stayers such as Kyprios and Tower Of London this year.

• Racenet’s Melbourne Cup sweep

The ex-hurdler finished second to Kyprios in the Group 1 Irish St Leger (2816m) at his most recent start in September and fourth behind the champion stayer in the Group 1 Ascot Gold Cup (4023m) at Royal Ascot.

In between he won the Group 2 Lonsdale Cup (3319m) and was third behind Tower Of London in the Group 2 Curragh Cup (2816m).

Absurde fared slightly better than his stablemate last year with a seventh placing, and like Vauban has been contesting stronger races this time round.

Even without Via Sistina, Chris Waller has a strong representation with Buckaroo, Land Legend, Kovalica and outsiders Valiant King and Manzoice.

• Melbourne Cup barrier draw: Luck deserts Waller but Irish are smiling

Buckaroo settled too far back in the Caulfield Cup (2400m) but savaged the line to dispel any doubts he would run out 2400m. And he should not be dismissed at 3200m either.

Land Legend filled the other minor placing in the Caulfield Cup where he was compelled to make a sustained run a long way from home.

Interpretation (sixth in the Cup last year) has kept improving with each run this campaign, finishing 11th, 11th, 10th, eighth, then sixth in the Bart Cummings and second in the Geelong Cup.

Okita Soushi has struck form at the right time, running second in the Herbert Power Stakes (2400m) before winning the Moonee Valley Gold Cup (2500m) and can improve on last year’s 11th place.

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KEY FORM RACES

ARCHER STAKES >> Flemington, 2500m, Heavy 8, September 14

This was the first time the Archer Stakes was run in its new slot, six weeks earlier than it’s usual Derby Day date. The winner Point King was surprisingly withdrawn from the Cup when third acceptances were taken last week. Eighth-placed Interpretation, the only runner in the Melbourne Cup field, finished 8¼ lengths adrift.

TURNBULL STAKES >> Flemington, 2000m, Soft 6, October 5

Underwood Stakes winner Buckaroo missed out on a hat-trick of victories when he was pipped by Chris Waller stablemate Via Sistina. Sydney Cup winner Circle Of Fire was beaten 6½ lengths but it was a significant improvement on his first-up run. Valiant King, Sharp ’N’ Smart and Knight’s Choice were well off the pace.

THE BART CUMMINGS >> Flemington, 2510m, Soft 6, October 5

Just Fine held on to win after leading all the way, his first success since The Metropolitan a year earlier. Jordan Childs took off at the 600m and led by as much as four lengths between the 400m and 200m. Positivity was trapped wide but was making up ground along with a much-improved Interpretation.

HERBERT POWER >> Caulfield, 2400m, Soft 6, October 12

Okita Soushi led at a leisurely tempo until Post Impressionist made an early move and applied the pressure at the 600m. The Ciaron Maher-trained import held off all challengers except for stablemate Herman Hesse, who isn’t nominated for the Melbourne Cup. Fancy Man sat off Herman Hesse on the rail and worked home well for third, while The Map (fifth) improved from his first-up run to get his interrupted campaign back on track.

CAULFIELD CUP >> Caulfield, 2400m, Soft 6, October 19

Buckaroo charged home for second after giving away too much of a start to the winner Duke De Sessa, who didn’t have a Melbourne Cup nomination. Land Legend peaked on his run after taking off at the 1000m when a gap presented and Zardozi held her ground. Several runners will need to lift if they are to figure in the Melbourne Cup, such as Valiant King, Circle Of Fire, Warp Speed and Knight’s Choice.

GEELONG CUP >> Geelong, 2400m, Good 3, October 23

Onesmoothoperator emerged as a Melbourne Cup contender with a powerful 2¼-length win. The US-bred, UK raider travelled strongly from near last and was a class above the rest. Interpretation flashed home to continue his build up. The Map battled home.

MOONEE VALLEY GOLD CUP >> The Valley, 2040m, Good 3, October 25

Okita Soushi showed he can be a factor in the Cup with a dominant victory. He jumped well, settled off the speed and looked the winner a long way from home. Last-start winner Just Fine failed to beat a runner home and was more than 10 lengths behind after dropping out from the lead. Positivity didn’t fare much better and raced more forward. Sharp ’N’ Smart finished strongly from back in the field.

BENDIGO CUP >> Bendigo, 2400m, Good 3, October 30

Sea King surged into contention with a runway win by nearly four lengths. The UK stayer travelled beautifully in midfield and it was game over once jockey Declan Bates pushed the button at the 1000m. Knight’s Choice could have finished closer with a clearer run in the straight. The Bendigo Cup carried more importance this year with the Archer Stakes moved to September.

Originally published as Chris Vernuccio assesses the lead-up form for the 2024 Melbourne Cup

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