Caulfield Cup tips: Ray Thomas brings you all the late mail ahead of huge day of spring racing

IT’S Cup day at Caulfield and Ray Thomas has all the best late mail and tips to help you pick a winner there and at Royal Randwick.

IT’S Cup day at Caulfield and Ray Thomas has all the best late mail and tips to help you pick a winner there and at Royal Randwick.

CAULFIELD

Weather: Cool, partly cloudy day with a forecast top temperature of 19C.

Track: Good (3)

Rail: 6m out

ROYAL RANDWICK

Weather: Warm, cloudy day with the likelihood of showers later in the afternoon and a forecast top temperature of 27C.

Track: Good (4)

Rail: 9m Out

BE WARY: Randwick raced superbly for Epsom Day last week and despite a rail shift from 3m to 6m it is expected to race well again. There may be a hint of on-pace bias so watch the early races closely for any race patterns. Caulfield has perfect conditions for Guineas Day with the rail shifting back to the true. It might be favourable to be closer to the rail today.

RAY THOMAS AND SHAYNE O’CASS PREVIEW THIS WEEKEND’S BIG RACES

CAULFIELD

THE BEST BET: Ambience (race 4) thrashed the boys with a dominant win in the Dulcify Quality over 1600m last start. Lightly raced filly with a lot of promise and gives the impression getting out to 2000m will be ideal, She is back in fillies grade today and is well weighted only 1.5kg over the limit given she is a stakes winner. Drawn ideally and provided she doesn’t strike any traffic problems she should win.

NEXT BEST: It is difficult to be really confident in a Caulfield Cup but Mongolian Khan ticks a lot of boxes today. Significantly he has been improved by three very good weight-for-age runs, particularly in the Caulfield Stakes last week when he was unlucky not to finish even closer than a half-length third to Criterion. He should be near his peak today, he’s drawn well, handles firm tracks and his two previous attempts at 2400m has resulted in Group 1 wins in the NZ Derby and ATC Australian Derby, A deserved favourite for the big race.

VALUE BET: Solicit (race 8) is resuming today but she is a noted first-up performer, winning the Darley Crown over 1300m at Hawkesbury at the start of her autumn campaign. Her two recent barrier trial wins in Sydney have been dynamic, she is very adept racing in the Melbourne direction, and the wide barrier suits this mare who can often be slow into stride. At $11 she is tremendous value.

THE WHISPER: Ragnaar (race 5) looked very good winning his maiden at Bendigo at his first Australian start then had no luck when seventh in Sovereign Nation’s Stutt Stakes at Moonee Valley. Big strider who wasn’t suited by the tight Valley track last start. His work at Flemington this week has turned heads. Expect him to go very close.

EXPERT TIPS: WEEKEND BEST BETS

FRIDAY FORMLINE: HORSES TO FOLLOW

TOP 5: CAULFIELD CUP MOMENTS

FORM: ULTIMATE CUP GUIDE

MATTY, MACCA AND DANNY LOOK AHEAD TO AN INTRIGUING CAULFIELD CUP CARD AND RATE EVERY RUNNER IN THE BIG RACE. LISTEN BELOW OR ON ITUNES

ROYAL RANDWICK

THE BEST BET: Lieder (race 2) has been improved by two runs from a spell including his fast finishing second to Asked To Leave at Warwick Farm earlier this month. Lieder is still a maiden after five starts but gives the impression he has been crying out for 1600m on a big track like Randwick. Ready to win.

THE NEXT BEST: Hellbent (race 7) won on a heavy track when making his debut at Canterbury back in June then resumed at a Rosehill midweek meeting late last month and was devastating winning by four lengths in very fast times. He nearly broke 1m 9s for 1200m last start and ran sub-34s for his last 600m without being unduly pressured, This colt is the real deal.

VALUE BET: La Amistad (race 8) is way over the odd at $17. The three-quarter sister to Makybe Diva has finished unplaced in three runs this spring but her efforts have been better than they read on paper. This is an easier race and she is a winner over the course and distance. She is good enough to win this race and is ready to strike form.

THE WHISPER: Nayeli (race nine) has been tuned up for her return with two solid barrier trials. She impressed in the most recent of those two hit-outs, finishing a head second to Invitations at Randwick. Nayeli goes very well fresh, is ideally drawn in barrier three and is value at $8.50.

THE BIG BETS AND MARKET MOVERS

CAULFIELD

Race 1: TAB Fixed Odds reports a move for Silent Sendition $4.60-$3.80 with bets of $300 at $4.20, $600 at $4, $400 at $3.90, $1,000 at $3.80.

Race 2: Santa Ana Lane $2.90-$3-$2.60, Mahuta $18-$21-$11.

Race 3: Ball Of Muscle $3.50-$3.10 with bets of $500 at $3.50, $400 at $3.40, Kuro $4.40-$4-$4.60 with a $680 wager at $4.40, Kinglike $6-$4.40 with bets of $600 at $6, $500 at $4.80.

Race 4: Ambience $2.70-$2.30 with bets of $500 at $2.70, $400 at $2.60, $2,000 at $2.50, $2,000 at $2.30, Honesta $3.50-$3.20 after bets of $1,000 at $3.50, $1,500 at $3.40, Dawn Of Hope $8-$7 with wagers of $384 at $7.50, $1,580 at $7.

Race 5: Lizard Island $5-$4.80 with a $1,000 wager at $5, Ayers Rock $13-$11-$13 with bets of $400 at $13, $200 at $13, $200 at $11.

Race 6: Leebaz $14-$15-$11, Fenway $5-$4.40, Thunder Lady $21-$17.

Race 7: Under The Louvre $3.50-$2.50 with bets of $1,000 e/w at $3.50/$1.57, $400 at $3.50, $300 $3.20, $500 at $3, $400 at $2.90, $1,300 at $2.80, $2,300 at $2.60, $1,000 at $2.50, $1,000 at $2.40.

Race 8: Catkins $3.60-$3.20 with a $800 bet at $3.40, Sabatini $4.60-$5.50, Atlantis Dream $26-$19.

Race 9: Caulfield Cup: Mongolian Khan $4.80-$4.20-$4.50 with bets of $5,000 at $4.80, $1,100 at $4.60, $1,550 at $4.20, $1,000 at $4.20, $800 at $4.50, Fame Game $9-$10-$9.50 with a $1,000 bets at $10, Set Square $9-$9.50 including a $1,250 wager at $8, Rising Romance $12-$10 with bets of $500 e/w at $11/$3.50, $800/$400 at $10/$3.25, Hokko Brave $14-$13-$14 including $500 e/w at $15/$4.50, $500 at $13, Hauraki $10-$9.50, Snow Sky $12-$10 with bets of $3,000/$5,000 e/w at $11/$3.50, $1,000 e/w at $10/$3.25 (twice), Gust Of Wind $19-$16 with a $4,000 wager at $17.

Race 10: Afleet Esprit $15-$7.50 with bets of $900 e/w at $13/$3.90, $1,000 at $10, $500 e/w at $8.50/$2.76, $400 at $8.50, The Messina Nymph $6-$5 including $1,000 at $6.

ROYAL RANDWICK

Race 2: TAB Fixed Odds reports Montauk has firmed from $3.80-$3.50.

Race 5: Counterattack $8.50-$8 after bets of $700 at $8.50, $300 at $8, Hellbent $2.80-$2.30 with bets of $1,100 at $2.80, $800 at $2.40, $800 at $2.30 and $750 at $2.30.

Race 7: Fell Swoop $3.40-$2.90 with bets of $500 at $3.40, $500 at $3.30, $850 at $3.20, $1,000 at $3.20, $1,000 at $3 (twice) and $1,000 at $2.90.

Race 8: Ruling Dynasty $8.50-$5.50 with bets of $500 at $8, $400 at $6.

Race 9: Fine Mist $5.50-$5 with bets of $750 e/w at $5.50/$2.12, $500 e/w at $5/$2.

INTERSTATE

Doomben race 7: Ellawisdom

Doomben race 8: Hardline

Morphettville race 6: Flamberge

Morphettville race 7: Northern Zhar

NSW PROVINCIALS

Wyong race 3: Chamarel

Wyong race 4: Deangelo

Good luck today and I hope you back plenty of winners

Originally published as Caulfield Cup tips: Ray Thomas brings you all the late mail ahead of huge day of spring racing