Best bets and inside mail for Grafton and Orange on Tuesday, October 22, 2024

Gold Coast housed mare Baronessa will cross the border on Tuesday when she lines-up in the Jacaranda Cup Prelude at Grafton

Spring Eagle has a terrific chance to notch career win no.2 at Grafton on Tuesday. Picture: Bradley Photos

Racenet and The Daily Telegraph form expert Shayne O’Cass analyses the NSW meetings at Grafton and Orange on Tuesday, presenting his best bets, value selections, quaddie picks and inside mail.

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GRAFTON TIPS

BEST BET
Race 5 No.7 BARONESSA
Boasts compelling figures to take this and has been trialling brilliantly.

NEXT BEST
Race 2 No.5 THREE GRACES
Becoming very costly indeed but been consistent as well. Getting close.

VALUE
Race 6 No.3 SPRING EAGLE
Known to get back and charge home; just needs the breaks.

QUADDIE
Race 4: 1,7
Race 5: 7
Race 6: 3,12
Race 7: 4,14

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW
Mollie Fitzgerald is second only to James McDonald by winners in NSW this season.

GRAFTON INSIDE MAIL

RACE 4: COUNTRY BOOSTED CLASS 2 HANDICAP (1430m)
DESERT MIST (1) is aptly-named given he is best served with as little rain as possible; 7 starts on Soft/Heavy for no wins, no placings. Two things to consider – one is that he is almost certainly the best horse in the race and two, we could get an upgrade hopefully. INTOXEL (7) has three seconds from eight starts here at home. She too seems to be another who will appreciate a Good track if she gets it. DIPIERDOMENICO (3) is in great form!
BET: Desert Mist to win.

RACE 5: JACARANDA CUP PRELUDE BENCHMARK 82 (1125m)
BARONESSA (7) has a fabulous set of numbers. For starters, she has 31 starts for 7 wins and 9 placings and 7 of those are seconds. She has won 3 at this trip and is one from one here at Grafton. On top of that she is 2 from 5 first-up and her two trials are rippers. MAJORELLE (2) likewise has won 7 races and from only 19 starts. She has won 5 from 6 at the trip and races well at this venue. Just has the sticky gate to deal with. LADY TULESSA (8) is reliable.
BET: Baronessa to win, exacta 7 to beat 2, Daily Double 1st Leg (70, 2nd Leg (14).

RACE 6: CLASS 1 HANDICAP (1125m)
SPRING EAGLE (3), the Tasmanian-bred Kempsey visitor, has a win and 5 placings from 16 starts. One could make the case to argue that a few of those placings could have in fact been wins but for the fact that Spring Eagle is a swooper (pun definitely intended). THUNDEROUS (12) was underwhelming here last start but he has been freshened-up since. MISS MAZERATI (14) has a wide draw so suspect she goes back (as usual) and charges late (as usual).
BET: Spring Eagle to win, quinella 3,12, exacta 2 to beat 12, box trifecta 3,9,12,14.

RACE 7: BENCHMARK 58 (1630m)
KHAMIS (14) looked the winner on paper on debut here on Oct 1 provided she could handle the Heavy 10. Turned out she could and she did, winning that maiden by almost six lengths. It is a small portion of horses indeed that are able to win at their subsequent start but hard to tip against her. OTTOMAN EMPIRE (4) has the race experience edge on Khamis and one thing about him is that he is a very reliable type and best of all, he is a last start Grafton winner. IMPRINTED (3), I’MTIMMYZOU (2) (if he comes) and SPIELE (8) are all players.
BET: Khamis to win.

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ORANGE TIPS

BEST BET
Race 5 No.7 RICH STREET
Placed at 4 of 12 including a last start track/distance second.

NEXT BEST
Race 1 No.6 NOW YOU’VE DONE IT
Well-bred filly, ran well on debut, drawn wide but has talent.

VALUE
Race 7 No.8 ADELSUN
Has a beautiful build-up to the mile at a track she has won at.

ORANGE INSIDE MAIL

RACE 4: CLASS 1 HANDICAP (1000m)
THE MOOCH (9) has raced over 1000m at Orange 3 times for 2 seconds and a third. Granted she has only won once in her 24 starts but she has placed 7 times and in fact, has a 50 per cent place strike-rate from 10 starts at this distance. IOWNA BENZ (1) is nominated for Hawkesbury on Thursday. Will be short if she comes here. SARDONYX (4) maybe deserves some understanding and forgiveness for her first-up failure given it was her first time on wet ground (a H9) last start)
BET: The Mooch each-way but The Mooch to win if Iowna Benz scratched.

RACE 5: COUNTRY BOOSTED MAIDEN PLATE (1400m)
RICH STREET (7) is a Michael Lunn-trained mare who has raced 12 times for 4 placings, 3 of them are seconds. One of them was at her first visit to Orange on Oct 10 where she was back in the pack but passed all bar the winner who goes well. Just a hunch but for what it is worth, I reckon ANGELISLE (3) is a better horse than the ‘7’ and the ‘9’ would suggest. Worth a second look at the big odds perhaps. DIAMOND SUN (1) was third in the ‘Rich Street race’ here 12-days ago.
BET: Rich Street Lad to win, Angelisle to place, duet/quinella 3,7 exacta 7 to beat 3.

RACE 6: BENCHMARK 66 HANDICAP (2100m)
THE BIG BIIG (3) is the fifth emergency for a race at home at Warwick Farm on Wednesday and is nominated for a 2000m race at Hawkesbury on Thursday as well. Long story short, the Lauri Parker-trained son of Adelaide has been running in a lot better races than this and going okay in some of them. TOKYO RUN (2) landed some big bets to win, narrowly, here in a 2100m Benchmark 66. In good hands and no reason he can’t go again. SHAFTY (1) has claims.
BET: The Big Biig to win or if scratched Shafty to place.

RACE 7: COUNTRY BOOSTED BENCHMARK 58 (1600m)
ADELSUN (8) is from the same 2018 Adelaide crop as the aforementioned The Big Biig. This particular six-year-old has won 4 from 25 and placed 3 times. She has been with Darren Hyde for her last three runs only and is ‘145’ and there was plenty of merit in the last couple. MARGARET’S MISSILE (10) is ‘3213’ in her only runs for Garry Lunn. All those placings were in pretty good looking races. WOLF BAY (3) was close to ‘Margaret’ at the finish in that Dubbo race Oct 4.
BET: Adelsun to win, quinella 8,10, box First 4: Nos. 3,6,7,8,10.

Originally published as Best bets and inside mail for Grafton and Orange on Tuesday, October 22, 2024