Essendon 2021 preview: Ben Rutten faces tough test in first season at the helm
Temper your expectations, Bomber fans. The outlook is grim for Ben Rutten’s first season at the helm. Here’s why.
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The succession plan is over and now Ben Rutten has officially taken charge at Essendon.
How will they fare under the new senior coach?
Rebecca Williams reveals the six key people who will define the club in 2021:
BEN RUTTEN
It’s time for the coaching succession plan to take full effect.
The man they call “Truck” is heading into his first season fully in charge – having had former senior coach John Worsfold by his side last season – and the Bombers will hope he can make an impact like his moniker suggests.
As senior assistant, Rutten was in charge of tactics, the Dons having said they were still a work in progress.
However, it’s now time for Rutten to step up and take full control, and for the players to respond after a year of assimilating to the former Adelaide defender’s game plan.
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DYSON HEPPELL
As they transition to a new era, the Bombers need their captain on the field.
Heppell, 29 in May, was restricted to just three games last season, plagued by foot and ankle injuries.
After a procedure at the end of last season in September to remove a pin from his ankle, the Bombers say their skipper is well placed for Round 1 and is expected to feature in pre-season games.
The club has flagged a new role off halfback for Heppell to help lessen the strain on his troublesome foot, but also to add some experience in defence.
JORDAN RIDLEY
In Champion Data’s annual ranking of the elite players at each club, Ridley was the only Bomber rated in the top bracket.
Ridley, 22, was a revelation in 2020, winning the club’s best and fairest after emerging as one of the game’s elite defenders – all with just 26 games to his name. Before last season, Ridley had played only nine senior games.
The Bombers will hope he can carry that form into 2021.
His role will become even more critical following the departure of Adam Saad to Carlton.
MICHAEL HURLEY
A long-time key man in defence and a two-time All-Australian, Hurley is vital to the Bombers’ hopes. He had an indifferent 2020, playing 14 matches, and could be thrown forward this year after the departure of Joe Daniher to the Brisbane Lions. But Hurley’s pre-season has been interrupted by a serious hip infection which has hospitalised him twice.
JOSH MAHONEY
The former long-time Melbourne football manager replaces Dan Richardson in the key post.
Needs to quickly build a rapport with Rutten and all the assistant coaches, while he will also be the man the Bombers’ executive and even board members seek feedback from.
Will need to help Rutten publicly navigate his way through the season should the Bombers struggle on the field.
KEVIN SHEEDY
The legendary four-time premiership coach joined the club’s board late last season and has since been analysing the football department and where improvement was needed.
Should the Bombers struggle, he could be used as a buffer to help settle frustrated fans although, if that scenario was to emerge, there is a danger he could heap more pressure on the club with a typically honest assessment.
WHAT CHAMPION DATA SAYS
THE GOOD
The Bombers’ ball movement dropped compared to 2019 but was still higher than the AFL average last season.
They ranked fifth for points generated from a defensive half chain and seventh for generating an inside 50 from a defensive midfield chain.
THE BAD
Bombers ranked 14th for time in forward half differential and 17th for both turnovers created in their forward half and points generated from a forward half chain.
THE ROAD AHEAD
Prediction: Two wins, four losses
Round 1: Essendon v Hawthorn, Marvel Stadium, March 20, 7.25pm
Round 2: Port Adelaide v Essendon, Adelaide Oval, March 27, 4.35pm
Round 3: Essendon v St Kilda, April 3, 4.35pm
Round 4: Sydney v Essendon, SCG, April 8, 8.20pm
Round 5: Brisbane Lions v Essendon, Gabba, April 17, 8.25pm
Round 6: Collingwood v Essendon, MCG, April 25, 4.20pm
TOUGH START
The Bombers face four top-eight sides from 2020 in the opening six rounds, including minor premiers Port Adelaide in Round 2 – at the Power’s Adelaide Oval fortress – and chief rivals Collingwood on Anzac Day.
Clashes against Hawthorn in the opening round and Sydney present the Bombers best chance, but they face tougher early assignments against Port, St Kilda, Brisbane and the Magpies.
They could be 2-4 after the first block of six games.
SEASON PREDICTION
Expected finish: Bottom four.
After a transitioning period last year, Rutten now gets his chance to stamp his authority – but some of the early signs are not great. The loss of Adam Saad will hurt and injuries to key personnel could leave the Bombers with an underwhelming forward line for the start of the season. After three top-10 draft picks last year, Rutten has young talent to work with in what could shape as a foundation year for the new senior coach.
BEST 22 FOR ROUND 1
B: Jordan Ridley, Brandon Zerk-Thatcher, Mason Redman
HB: Dyson Heppell, Aaron Francis, Nick Hind
C: Nikolas Cox, Andrew McGrath, Jye Caldwell
HF: Darcy Parish, Cale Hooker, Kyle Langford
F: Devon Smith, Peter Wright, Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti
Foll: Sam Draper, Dylan Shiel, Zach Merrett
Inter: Ned Cahill, Archie Perkins, Harrison Jones, Jayden Laverde
INS: Cody Brand (draft), Jye Caldwell (GWS), Nik Cox (draft), Josh Eyre (draft), Nick Hind (St Kilda), Archie Perkins (draft), Zach Reid (draft), Peter Wright (Gold Coast).
OUTS:
Traded: Joe Daniher (Brisbane), Orazio Fantasia (Port Adelaide), Shaun McKernan (St Kilda), Adam Saad (Carlton).
Delisted: Josh Begley, Henry Crauford, Noah Gown, Mitch Hibberd, Kobe Mutch, Jacob Townsend.
Retired: Tom Bellchambers, Conor McKenna.
ROBBO’S LIKES AND DISLIKES
LIKES
Finally, some collective direction, led by new president Paul Brasher off field and coach Ben Rutten on it.
Brasher’s talking tough and Rutten, in his sedate manner, is doing the same.
Where does that leave the team?
Really, who knows, but at least there’s been a line in the sand.
It’s a team in semi‑rebuild and a finals appearance would be a glorious result.
If the top draftees are ready, they will each play a handful of games.
There is talent — Zach Merrett, Jordan Ridley, Andrew McGrath, Dylan Shiel, Darcy Parish, Jake Stringer — but there’s also a handful of players still to prove they can be consistent.
Sam Draper will be one to watch, defender Patrick Ambrose will be a welcome return and what else have you got, Peter Wright and Jye Caldwell?
Still, not even Bombers fans have liked what the club has dished up in recent years, so to look for “likes” as the season approaches is difficult. Best to look for hope as a starting point.
DISLIKES
Players need to get fit (Anthony McDonald‑Tipungwuti, Stringer), they need a game plan that is predictable to them and they need passion in their intent and aggression in their style.
It’s up to Rutten to set the game plan.
He says he has, but last year was a non‑entity in terms of what the team was trying to play.
Speed is lost in the back half (Conor McKenna and Adam Saad are gone), so will it be slow and steady from D50?
So many queries hang over players.
Will Dyson Heppell’s body recover, will Jayden Laverde put his flag in the ground?
Martin Gleeson? Mason Redman? There are others.
VERDICT
Bottom four
BURNING QUESTIONS ANSWERERED
Herald Sun chief football writer Mark Robinson joins Fox Footy experts Nick Riewoldt, David King, Leigh Montagna and Jordan Lewis deliver their Essendon predictions for 2021.
ROBBO: Kingy said Collingwood was rebuilding. Jordan, do you think the Bombers are as well?
JORDAN: There’s no surer thing than the Bombers rebuilding. They’ll be bottom four and I can’t see them improving drastically on last year. I think they need time to transition to the new coach. I know he’s been there for 12 months, but from what we heard it could have been done better. They’ve got a new coach and they’ve drafted some kids that have some spunk, which I like, and key position players, too, so you can see direction. What they need to do and implement in the pre-season is an obvious game style because in 2020 they chopped and changed. But they’re certainly in the rebuild phase.
JOEY: I’m with Jordie, they’re playing the long game. They’re three to four years away and if you look at their list profile, they’re 17th for average games going into 2021. They’ve drafted for the long term and I think they have time on their side. Their core group of players are still young enough and we’ll see the best of Essendon in three years’ time.
KINGY: We have to write off 2020 because they just didn’t handle the hub life, but I’m already concerned for Ben Rutten. I think they’ve bumbled their way through the off-season. They say they want to play blue collar football and then they delist the most blue collar player in the AFL in Jacob Townsend. I think they’ve got a massive leadership void. Dyson Heppell doesn’t play often enough and well enough often enough. When was his last big game? I think Smith and Shiel are selfish footballers. They want to be everything for the team, but it’s not great for a leadership point of view.
ROBBO: Who’s the next captain?
KINGY: Everyone tells me McGrath, so maybe the time frame needs to come forward a bit and give the keys over to the next wave. I don’t see what they’ve got to lose. They’ve got a new coach coming in and new messaging, so why not now?
ROBBO: Verdict?
KINGY: I can’t see any success in the short term and this is a long rebuild to be honest. I think they’ve missed their opportunity and they now find themselves stuck in no man’s land. It’s a hard place to get out of.
ROOEY: I agree. Bottom six this year but I think they could bounce quickly. But the work needs to be done now to get the games into their kids. Get 50 games into them as quick as you can.
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