Crosscourt: Trigger-happy stars have turned NBA into a three-point shootout, but where does the NBL sit?
Trigger-happy NBA stars have turned the American basketball league into a three-point shootout competition, even Shaq is bored. But has ‘small ball’ made the jump into the NBL?
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Trigger-happy NBA stars have turned the American basketball league into a competition dominated by three-point shootouts. But has “small ball” made the jump across the Pacific? Michael Randall and Matt Logue investigate in a Crosscourt special.
In the NBA, everyone wants to be Steph Curry – the transformative Golden State dynamo who blew up the game with his otherworldly outside shooting.
No one is close, but that hasn’t stopped NBA teams from attempting to emulate the formula that helped Curry and the Warriors win four titles from 2015-22.
It’s led into a massive increase in the number of three-point attempts and a dip in pure basketball and creativity.
And it’s made the big league a bit boring. Even NBA great Shaquille O’Neal says people are bored: “We’re looking at the same thing, everybody is running the same plays.”
In 2009-10, NBA teams took an average of 18.1 threes per game (6.4 makes).
Interestingly, every NBL team shot more than that in 2009-10, the year the Aussie league moved to 40-minute games.
The NBL average then was 22.9 (NZ was tops with 27, Illawarra was bottom with 19.4) which makes sense, given the Australian game possessed fewer big beasts and has always been dominated by smaller guards and wing-type players.
Fast forward to today, though, and that NBA number is more than double, up to 37.5 (13.5 makes).
Australia’s greatest big man Andrew Bogut – who made his name in America as a No. 1 draft pick and a championship winner – believes the NBA has become hard to watch following its overemphasis on the three ball.
“The NBA product isn’t great and I don’t enjoy watching regular season games,” Bogut said.
“There was a game between Chicago and Charlotte where there were 75 missed threes. I would have left that game at halftime and not watched the rest of it. That’s why I enjoy watching the NBL and the EuroLeague more than the NBA.
“I’d hate for the NBL to get to a point where they are playing similar to the NBA.”
The NBA’s three-point barrage is at historical levels, but what about the NBL this season? 28.9 per game.
So, while the Warriors and Dallas Mavericks, this week, hit a record 48 combined three-pointers, with exactly half the shots in that game from outside the arc (95 2PM, 95 3PM), the NBL has perhaps its broadest spread of three-point marksmen ever – but there is still room for offensive creativity and a place for the big gorillas to operate in the paint, ensuring variety.
DEFENCE AIN’T DEAD – THE SHOOTERS ARE JUST TOO GOOD
There’s a belief in some quarters that defence is becoming a bit of a dying art in the NBL. Even the once impenetrable Melbourne United, led by elite stoppers Shea Ili and Matthew Dellavedova, have leaked over 103 points in five of their last nine.
But any assertion defence is dead is premature according to Brisbane coach Justin Schueller.
“What I would argue is the whole league, each team, is doing a really good job at generating good looks, some teams shoot it more than others, but there are so many elite shot makers in our league this year,” Schueller said.
“You could pluck two or three different guys from each team to say they’re a problem from behind the arc and other years that may not have been said as much, apart from a couple teams.
“The elite shooting in the league is as good as it’s been.
“It’s not just a guard now, across the floor, there are guys who can really hurt you from deep.
“It’s not the lack of elite defenders, the talent levels are there in that skill, it’s just how teams are generating it.”
Bryce Cotton is on another level 🤯✨
— NBL (@NBL) December 14, 2024
Cotton becomes the first player in 33 years to score 40 points or more in four consecutive games. https://t.co/L6sdfN7PUipic.twitter.com/wIKig9eMCr
Bogut credits a rise in American-born coaches for the NBL’s growing appetite for the three ball, with five of the 10 coaches born in the United States.
The NBL’s best ever player – seven-time MVP Andrew Gaze – says a greater focus on the three-ball in junior development has played a big role.
Conversely, Gaze stressed a player shouldn’t be brushed because they don’t shoot from beyond the arc.
“I think there is a fine line in there that we can’t eliminate someone who can’t shoot a three, but might have other skillsets,” he said.
“At the junior level is where it’s extra important to have a broader range of skills.
“But many more players have the capacity to take and make threes.
“You look at junior development these days and big, small, it doesn’t matter, everyone is taught to shoot a three.”
WHAT HAPPENED AT THE FIBA BREAK?
The scoring exploits in the NBL since the FIBA break, headlined, but not limited to, Bryce Cotton’s otherworldly efforts, have wowed crowds and made opposing defences look pedestrian.
Prior to the break (rounds 1-9), the average game total was 176 – since the players had a rest (R10-12) it’s lifted to a ridiculous 195.4 according to Duncan Berg from hoopsdb.net.
Bogut believes a shift in officiating to allow greater protection for guards has contributed to the NBL’s points explosion, not only since the FIBA break but also throughout the season.
“I think that (officiating) is inflating scores as well,” Bogut said.
“In the NBL there are a lot of smaller guards, especially the import guards and for the most part they get a lot of nice calls.
“And most guards in the league are much more protected and have more space than bigs I believe.
“Some guards are shooting up to 20 free-throws. The last time we had a big shoot that many, I’d have to scratch my head.
“You want players to be protected to an extent, but you don’t want it to an NBA level where defence is constantly second to offence and you literally can’t touch an offensive player.
“What that does is create more openings because players are scared to be more physical because they’ll just foul.
“We’re seeing guys like Bryce (Cotton) being able to get more open shots because players really can’t go near him.”
Bogut would like to see a balance when officiating guards, especially when a player uses their leg to kick out while attempting a shot.
He says one solution would be to slap offenders with unsportsmanlike fouls for leg kicks.
“I think that needs to be cleaned up because there are a few guys in our league that get away with murder with leg kicks.
“It’s a weird one because as per FIBA rules it shouldn’t matter what your shooting action looks like, if you leg kick it isn’t a foul on the defender.
“I think the NBL way of officiating is in a tough spot. They want to protect those stars with those shooting styles, but at the same time as an offensive three-point shooter the rule clearly states that you have to be straight up and down.”
THE HYPE IS ONLY PART OF THE STORY
With the advent of the Next Stars program and its success in producing NBA draft picks, combined with an ever-improving marketing machine, the NBL’s unique standing in world basketball continues to rise.
But that’s only part of the story. Playing styles across the league vary, allowing genuine opportunity for smalls, real smalls (Jordon Crawford is 168cm), talls, and everyone in between to thrive.
The majority of bigs in the NBA just want to pick and pop and shoot threes. The NBL remains a haven for truly elite big men. Think Boomer Will Magnay in Tasmania; Jordi Hunter at South East Melbourne; and Schueller’s own Kiwi monster Tyrell Harrison.
They’ll pound you into the court for 40 minutes and make life easier for those vaunted shooters on the perimeter.
“We’re a league that sits somewhere between the NBA and EuroLeague-type style of play so I think in our league, we value the ball screen way of playing more so than just isolation basketball where it’s penetrate and pitch, so, when you have a big involved, they’re going to have an opportunity to be a dominant force,” Schueller said.
“We’re not just a pick n pop league, we’ve got guys who can hurt you on the rim roll and be a paint presence.
“I think we’ve got a good balance and I think our product’s as good as it’s ever been.
“There’s not a game you don’t tune into right now and you’re not entertained, I think how tight the league is testament to that.”
What would you call this celebration from Montrezl Harrell? ðŸ˜
— NBL (@NBL) December 14, 2024
Watch live on ESPN 📺 pic.twitter.com/490QS4T8uR
Bogut was considered the gold standard traditional big man. He dominated the paint as a seven-footer, but he possessed the smarts to make his teammates better with pinpoint passing.
Bogut believes it’s vital the conventional centre is preserved in the NBL.
“I think in FIBA it is still very valuable to have a big that can operate in the paint,” he said.
“We see it with Montrezl Harrell at Adelaide. I think he has 10-12 paint points a game.
“Harrell is a big needle mover for the 36ers when he is dominating the paint. It’s important basketball wise and personally I think you’ve got to have a balance.
“The beauty of FIBA is there are different styles and chess games that play out within games.”
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