NBL 2022/23 run to the finals: One of the tightest races to the playoffs in recent memory
Eight teams are in contention to make the top six finals format in the NBL this season, so which teams make the cut and which team miss out. The run home and our predictions here.
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The NBL is set for one of its closest runs home in recent memory, with eight teams in the mix for six finals positions in the remaining four rounds.
The unpredictable and closeness was best summed up last round when the Tasmania JackJumpers went from 4th to 7th following a loss and then back to 4th after other teams lost.
Round 15 is crucial for a host of teams that must win to consolidate their position or stay alive for NBL23.
We take a look at each team’s run home and predict who makes the top six and who misses out for another season.
1: SYDNEY KINGS (15 wins and 5 losses)
Bullets (A)
Hawks (H)
Wildcats (A)
Breakers (H)
JackJumpers (A)
Phoenix (H)
36ers (A)
Wildcats (A)
Predicted finish: First
The Kings are the NBL’s best team, but they face a tough run home, with five of their remaining eight games on the road. Away clashes against Perth (twice), Tasmania and Adelaide will be vital to finish the regular season in first place.
2: NEW ZEALAND BREAKERS (13 wins and six losses)
Wildcats (A)
United (H)
Taipans (H)
Hawks (H)
Kings (A)
Bullets (A)
United (H)
Hawks (A)
Predicted finish: Third
The Breakers look like finishing in third position. They have four home games left, but it won’t be easy with six of their remaining eight games against fellow finals contenders.
3: CAIRNS TAIPANS (14 wins and 7 losses)
Hawks (H)
Breakers (A)
JackJumpers (H)
Phoenix (A)
Bullets (H)
36ers (H)
Wildcats (A)
Predicted finish: Second
The Taipans have a big opportunity to finish the regular season in second position, with four home games in their remaining seven games.
Home clashes against Tasmania and Adelaide will be crucial.
Look out below! 🫣
— Cairns Taipans (@CairnsTaipans) January 8, 2023
Waardenburg THROWS it DOWN!!
📲 @SamWaardenburg | 📺 @espnpic.twitter.com/0ZoiwhzZSB
4: TASMANIA JACKJUMPERS (11 wins and 10 losses)
Hawks (A)
36ers (H)
Phoenix (H)
Taipans (A)
Kings (H)
Wildcats (H)
Hawks (A)
Predicted finish: Fourth
Tasmania’s destiny is in their hands, with two games against the last-placed Hawks and a host of winnable home games.
5: ADELAIDE 36ERS (11 wins ands 10 losses)
JackJumpers (A)
Wildcats (A)
Bullets (A)
United (H)
Taipans (A)
Kings (H)
United (A)
Predicted finish: Fifth
You can’t deny Adelaide’s talent but do they possess the toughness to navigate arguably the most difficult run
home of any team.
Away games against Tasmania, Perth, Cairns and United will go a long way to deciding if the 36ers make the finals or worst case miss out.
ð™ð™¤ð™ªð™œð™ð™© 'til the end. pic.twitter.com/rsWgd0ea45
— Adelaide 36ers (@Adelaide36ers) January 8, 2023
6: SOUTH EAST MELBOURNE PHOENIX (12 wins and 11 losses)
Bullets (H)
JackJumpers (A)
Wildcats (H)
Taipans (H)
Kings (A)
Predicted finish: Sixth
The Phoenix should get its trio of stars Trey Kell, Gary Browne and Mitch Creek back from injury for the run home, but it won’t be easy.
Finish with clashes against finals contenders in four of their remaining five games and will have to produce their best to rise up the ladder.
7: PERTH WILDCATS (10 wins and 10 losses)
Breakers (H)
36ers (H)
Kings (H)
Phoenix (A)
Hawks (H)
JackJumpers (A)
Taipans (H)
Kings (H)
Predicted finish: Seventh
Perth has been inconsistent this season, but they possess the talent led by Bryce Cotton to beat anyone in the league.
The Wildcats have six of their remaining eight games at home, including season-defining clashes against Sydney (twice), Cairns, New Zealand and Adelaide. We’re tipping Perth to just miss out on the finals for a second straight season.
Shake 'em off C-Web. 💪
— Perth Wildcats (@PerthWildcats) January 7, 2023
👀 Watch live on ESPN via Kayo & Foxtel pic.twitter.com/u2pJHJGLkR
8: MELBOURNE UNITED (11 wins and 12 losses)
Breakers (A)
Bullets (A)
36ers (A)
Breakers (A)
36ers (H)
Predicted finish: Eighth
You have to praise Melbourne United’s resilience to win five of its past six games, but they’ll need to win and hope other results go their way to make the finals.
Four away games in their final five games also won’t make it easy, but United will dare to dream.
CROSSCOURT: MVP candidate’s injury blow
South East Melbourne Phoenix’s playoff hopes hinge on Mitch Creek’s fitness after the MVP candidate suffered an eye injury in Sunday’s loss to Cairns.
Creek copped an elbow to the right eye in the fourth quarter against the Taipans and didn’t return, casting doubt over his immediate playing future.
The star forward suffered a cut on the white of his eye.
Creek struggled to open his eye without feeling pain while he also experienced blurred vision.
He will visit a doctor this week for further diagnosis, but Phoenix CEO Tom Greer optimistic his marquee man will be given the green light to resume the season.
South East Melbourne don’t play again until next Monday against Brisbane, giving Creek seven days to recover from his eye injury.
“Mitch will be assessed again in a day or two but we remain confident he’ll be good to go by Monday,” Greer said.
South East Melbourne could also welcome back import duo Gary Browne (calf) and Trey Kell (knee) for next Monday’s home game against the Bullets.
The potential return of Browne and Kell would be a monumental boost for the six-placed Phoenix.
Greer is hopeful of good news on the injury front.
“There is also a pretty good chance Gary and Trey will be back for Monday as well,” he said.
“They’ll both be assessed later this week.”
Meanwhile, South East Melbourne officials remain frustrated that Creek’s elbow to the eye wasn’t called by the officials.
The Phoenix forward attempted to get through a gap between Taipans duo Shannon Scott and DJ Hogg, and appeared to make incidental contact with Hogg’s elbow as the Snakes import raised his arms above his head.
Creek competed for possession, then sat on the floor with a hand over his left eye.
Phoenix coach Simon Mitchell couldn’t believe the incident wasn’t blown as a foul.
Mitchell also called for greater protection of star players like Creek.
“He can’t see out of that eye and it was a non-call,” Mitchell said.
“We saw him get cannoned through last game (against Sydney) with a no-call.
“He is a premier player in this league and he needs to be looked after.
“You can’t be having guys lose their vision during games and there not be a whistle.”
NBL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR RACE OVER – BUT WHO WINS MVP?
A challenger to the Sydney Kings championship crown remains a “mystery”, as eight teams fight out for six finals positions in the remaining four rounds.
According to the godfather of Aussie hoops, Lindsay Gaze, the Kings are overwhelming favourites to defend their title.
Gaze, though, feels clueless when it comes to selecting a team that can legitimately challenge Sydney for the championship.
He rates Perth highly, mostly because of Bryce Cotton’s presence, but the seventh-placed Wildcats are no guarantee to even make the playoffs.
“At present with Sydney on top, I suppose the bookmakers would have them as the favourites and from there for me it is a mystery,” Gaze senior said.
“I still have a fairly strong opinion of Perth.
“They have Bryce Cotton, and he is definitely a matchwinner and then I’m ambivalent about the rest.”
Sydney is surging towards the minor premiership, sitting pretty in first position with 15 wins and just five losses.
It’s then a dogfight from second through to eighth position, with seven teams fighting out for finishing positions in the regular season.
Sydney legend Shane Heal, who won an NBL title with the Kings in 2003, believes health is the only factor that can stop the men in purple from lifting the trophy again.
“I think in a series, the only thing that beats the Kings is injury,” Heal said.
“They are beatable in games, but I’m not sure there is a team in the league right now who is playing well enough to beat them in a series.”
The rising talent in the NBL is driving the league to new heights 📈
— NBL (@NBL) January 5, 2023
Lindsay Gaze believes that the league is currently the best it's ever been ðŸ†
Read more here: https://t.co/jDESRvjUpSpic.twitter.com/fnsu1ojVaH
Heal says Sydney’s dominant run this season is extra impressive when you consider that other teams arguably possess more talent.
He points to sides like Adelaide, New Zealand and Perth, but the Kings have found a way to consistently produce as a team.
“If you look at the talent across the league, then they shouldn’t be where they are at because I think there are other teams with more talent,” he said.
“But Sydney has structures, balance, a strong mindset and they complement each other, and the team has been put together really well.”
FOCUSED CLARK OPEN TO NBL RETURN
Prized Adelaide 36ers signing Ian Clark hasn’t ruled out returning to the NBL next season, but for now he is locked in on the 36ers’ finals run.
Clark, who won a championship with Sydney last season, has joined the 36ers for the remainder of the season.
The 31-year-old left the door open to extend his stay in Australia, but wants to focus on Adelaide’s run home and a shot at another championship.
“It’s a great league to play in, it’s very competitive. “I’m back this year, so I must have liked something,” Clark said.
“At the same time, I don’t think too far ahead. I got the same questions last season and for me it is about one day at a time, and I don’t think it’s fair to the guys in the lockeroom who are all-in right now.
“I’ll worry about next season when this season is over.”
Adelaide currently sit inside the top six, but they have a tough run home with games against Tasmania (A), Perth (A), Brisbane (A), United (H), Cairns (A), Sydney (H) and United (A).
MVP RACE OVER OR A TWO-HORSE RACE?
Did Sydney Kings star forward Xavier Cooks put one hand on the MVP trophy with his commanding display against Perth on Saturday night?
Cooks produced at a highly efficient level, dropping 24 points, 11 rebounds, four assists and three blocks highlighted by a tasty windmill jam.
X-RATED âš ï¸#WeTheKingspic.twitter.com/FlfJT7r4Z7
— Sydney Kings (@SydneyKings) January 7, 2023
Wildcats star and fellow MVP candidate Bryce Cotton had 22 points, five assists and one rebound.
South East Melbourne main man Mitch Creek is looming as Cooks’ main contender.
Creek continues to excel as the Phoenix’s best player, as he showed with a game-high 32 points and nine rebounds and five assists in a loss to Sydney during the week.
Cairns big man Keanu Pinder is also in the mix, but he is currently sidelined with an ankle injury, and the time off could impact his MVP chances when it comes to the crunch.
It leaves Cooks versus Creek – may the best man win.
MVP CONTENDERS:
Xavier Cooks (Sydney Kings) - 17.11 points, 8.26 rebounds, 3.84 assists and shooting 61 per cent from the field
Mitch Creek (South East Melbourne Phoenix) - 23.86 points, 6.55 rebounds, 2.64 assists and shooting 52 per cent from the field
Keanu Pinder (Cairns Taipans) - 17.88 points, 9.94 rebounds, 2.59 assists and shooting 50 per cent from the field
Bryce Cotton (Perth Wildcats) - 24.1 points, 4.05 rebounds, 4.75 assists and shooting 43 per cent from the field
Barry Brown Jr (New Zealand Breakers)- 20.73 points, 3.33 rebounds, 2.8 assists and shooting 46 per cent from the field.
UNITED’S TOUGHNESS GIVES THEM A CHANCE
It’s been a difficult season for Melbourne United as they’ve battled injury and inconsistent form, but they’re not done just yet.
And it’s United’s resilience that will give them a chance, even though they sit outside the top six with four rounds remaining.
This fight was on show in spades on Saturday night as Melbourne kept its finals hopes alive with a hard-fought 92-85 win over the JackJumpers in Tasmania.
United lost David Barlow (concussion) and Isaac Humphries (knee) in the first quarter but managed to dig deep for the victory.
They’ve now won five of their last six games and are riding a wave of momentum as they attempt to qualify for the postseason.
United finish the season with of four of its remaining five games on the road.
New Zealand (A), Brisbane (A), Adelaide (A), New Zealand (A) and Adelaide (H).
It won’t be easy, but if form and confidence is anything to go by, then United will give themselves every chance of defying the odds.
WAARDENBURG CRUISING TOWARDS ROOKIE HONOURS
Give the Rookie of the Year award to Cairns forward Sam Waardenburg now.
That’s the overwhelming feeling after Waardenburg put on a show in the Taipans’ big win over the Brisbane Bullets this round.
Waardenburg (24pts at 70 per cent from the field, 8 reb, one steal) strengthened his case for rookie award with his best output of the season.
The New Zealand-born big man has averaged 10.35 points and 4.12 rebounds while he is shooting 53 per cent from the field.
Cairns has enjoyed a remarkable season to date after finishing second last the previous season and Waardenburg is a major reason why.
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Originally published as NBL 2022/23 run to the finals: One of the tightest races to the playoffs in recent memory
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