Glenn Maxwell, Aaron Finch and Chris Lynn among SuperCoach BBL’s ultimate risk-reward players

You have to take some risks to be successful in SuperCoach BBL. But how do you know when a risk is actually worthwhile? Here are five of the best risk-reward options for your side.

Standard deviation is a crucial term in SuperCoach BBL.

In its most basic terms, it refers to the difference between a player’s average score and their other scores.

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A low standard deviation is arguably the greatest indicator of SuperCoach consistency, which has historically been tough to predict, especially for batsmen.

For example, Callum Ferguson scored 197 points when he hammered a century for Sydney Thunder against Perth Scorchers. But how could you have seen it coming when his average was 33.5 until then?

After that match Ferguson tallied scores of 28 (30), 26 (33) and 47 (34), finishing BBL08 as the batsman with the most points.

Englishman Alex Hales will start BBL09 with a double for Sydney Thunder.

There is always a danger when choosing batsmen in SuperCoach BBL.

One good ball early in an innings or a tricky batting wicket can spell disaster.

If your batsman comes in at No. 4 or No. 5, there’s also the risk the top order dominates and they aren’t needed.

SuperCoach is about taking calculated risks, rather than risks simply to be different.

If you take the right punt, the rewards can be huge.

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SuperCoach BBL08 winner Nick Sprunt reveals the secrets to his success

I made a significant jump in the rankings last season when I chose Matt Renshaw when he smashed 90 from 50 balls and took 1-15 against Adelaide Strikers.

There was enough evidence to suggest the ex-Test opener would bowl, after he delivered four overs and took 0-23 in the previous game, for me to trade him in.

Ultimately, it was a risk to bank on a No. 5 batsman who was listed behind a top four of Max Bryant, Ben Cutting, Chris Lynn and Brendon McCullum.

But I found it a gamble worth taking as Renshaw was at least likely to accumulate bowling points.

It’s important to take risks and back your gut when trading.

Ensure there’s enough evidence to back up your intuition is one of the secrets to SuperCoach success.

FIVE RISK-REWARD PICKS

Alex Hales during one of his previous BBL stints for Hobart.

Alex Hales $125,000 BAT (Sydney Thunder)

The Englishman is one of the most destructive batsmen on the planet when on song but has battled in the Big Bash League previously. Hales has averaged 24 in three previous BBL stints, although he did amass 89 from 52 balls in an innings for Melbourne Renegades in 2012-13.

Career games: 15

Career standard deviation: 40.09

High score: 147

Low score/s: 0 (once)

Master blaster Chris Lynn has a huge SuperCoach scoring ceiling.

Chris Lynn $173,000 BAT (Brisbane Heat)

The Brisbane Heat captain made a flying start to last season, but battled at the back end of the campaign. Lynn opened BBL08 with scores of 33 (20), 29 (37), 84 (55) and 33 (34). His last six games, in contrast, were 2 (7), 0 (4), 10 (9), 56no (39), 0 (2) and a DNB (did not bat). Those who pick him for his Round 1 double will hope he can replicate his form from the early rounds after starring in the T10 League. He has four scores of 0 in his 63 BBL games.

Career games: 63

Career standard deviation: 47.9

High score: 172

Low score/s: 0 (four times)

jake Weatherald was one of the best batsmen of BBL07.

Jake Weatherald $108,900 BAT (Adelaide Strikers)

Only D’Arcy Short (572) and Weatherald’s opening partner Alex Carey (443) scored more runs than the Strikers batsman (383) in BBL07. Weatherald averaged 31.9 two summers ago, highlighted by his 115 from 70 balls in the final. He managed 328 runs at 23.4 last season, but didn’t have anywhere near the influence he did. He hasn’t been in great form this campaign but there are few more explosive players when on.

Career games: 33

Career standard deviation: 43.3

High score: 185

Low score/s: 0 (once)

Melbourne Renegades captain Aaron Finch is one of only a few players to score 200+ points in one game.

Aaron Finch $167,000 BAT (Melbourne Renegades)

Opening batsmen are the ultimate risk-reward proposition in SuperCoach BBL. Finch has gone as high as 225 points in one game, but twice scored 0 during a 54-game BBL career. He has a high standard deviation, but that is largely down to his huge ceiling. Most coaches starting Finch will be wary of leaving him out as one monster score could have you playing catch-up.

Career games: 54

Career standard deviation: 43.8

High score: 225

Low score/s: 0 (twice)

Glenn Maxwell is capable of turning a match off his own bat.

Glenn Maxwell $175,100 BAT-BWL (Melbourne Stars)

Maxwell’s role adds to his risk factor. In 13 matches last season, the off-spinner only bowled 18 overs. He bowled nine overs in six games in BBL07 and four overs in four matches in BBL06. If he was bowling more regularly he’d be close to a must-have player. He was batting behind Marcus Stoinis, Ben Dunk, Peter Handscomb and, at times Nic Maddinson last season. You wouldn’t pay $175,100 for a No. 4 or No. 5 batsman, as brilliant as Maxwell is.

Career games: 56

Career standard deviation: 46.6

High score: 185

Low score/s: 0 (twice)

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Originally published as Glenn Maxwell, Aaron Finch and Chris Lynn among SuperCoach BBL’s ultimate risk-reward players