Can Philly stop Kansas City making Super Bowl history? Super Bowl LIX preview

In one of the highest profile Super Bowl match-ups we’ve seen, history is on the line: who’s the favourite for Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans on Monday?

After almost two weeks of interminable patience - and the news this week that Australia will host an NFL game - Super Bowl LIX finally hits on Monday and just like the end of the first verse in Kendrick Lamar’s ‘Not Like Us’, it’s been worth the wait.

It’s an amazing Super Bowl matchup as well, with two storied franchises doing battle amid a seemingly endless array of alluring storylines.

Actually, kind of like Lamar vs. Drake in the Supie halftime show, when you think about it.

Anyway. the reigning champion Kansas City Chiefs are back again and looking to make NFL history and become the first team ever to pull off a Super Bowl three-peat.

The matchup is set 🙌 @Chiefs vs @Eagles

See you in New Orleans for #SuperBowlLIXpic.twitter.com/YnxJFbdIec

— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) January 27, 2025

Led by superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes, tight end Travis Kelce (and his famous girlfriend?) and coach Andy Reid – and after a year where they went 17-1 with Mahomes as a starter across the regular season and playoffs – the Chiefs are deserving favourites.

Under Mahomes, the Chiefs have a remarkable 17-3 playoff record all-time - with two of the three losses coming at the hands of Tom Brady, and the other to the Bengals before this current back-to-back run.

Facing them will be Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley and the Philadelphia Eagles looking to avenge their loss two years ago in Super Bowl LVII.

Jalen Hurts of the Philadelphia Eagles. Picture: Brandon Sloter/Getty Images

The Eagles, for their part, went 15-2 in the regular season with Hurts healthy and in the line-up as a starter, and haven’t lost with him since September.

As part of that the Eagles star running back Saquon Barkley joined the 2K rushing club, finishing the regular season with 2,005 rushing yards, before laying waste to the Packers, Rams and Commanders in the playoffs so far.

It sets up a Super Bowl for the ages… so, who will win?

Well, if folks are looking for another close Super Bowl - the last three have been decided by a score or less - this Chiefs-Eagles matchup ought to deliver.

Despite the big names on offence, both teams have leaned heavily on their defences this season, with the Eagles in particular ranking 1st in defensive DVOA and yards per game (278), along with 2nd in points allowed per game (17.8).

Kansas City has allowed the fourth fewest points per game (19.5) and the 9th lowest yards per outing (321), finishing 12th in defensive DVOA.

After a year where the Eagles managed 41 sacks in the regular season and the Chiefs 39, both teams also have 10 sacks so far in the playoffs, with Kansas City playing one less game than Philly.

So yeah, expect an arm wrestle: both defences have been on point throughout the season and playoffs.

As for the offences, both quarterbacks obviously had good regular seasons: across 17 games Mahomes threw for 3,928 yards, but also 11 INTs with only 26 TDs, while Jalen Hurts managed 18 TDs, 5 INTs and 2,903 passing yards in 15 games.

The Chiefs offence looked wonky at times with Kelce kept in cotton wool and injuries across the board to the likes of Rashee Rice, Isaiah Pacheco and Hollywood Brown, but still managed to finish 8th in offensive DVOA, and 11th in points per game at 24.1.

But, with speed demon rookie Xavier Worthy alongside Brown and the likes of DeAndre Hopkins and JuJu Smith-Schuster, as well as playoff veteran Kelce still being capable of exploding and running backs Kareem Hunt and Pacheco both healthy, the Chiefs scored 30+ for the first time all season last round against the Bills and will throw the kitchen sink at the Eagles D.

Jalen Hurts for MVP? Keep an eye on Saquon's rushing 👀

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— NFL Straya (@NflStraya) February 5, 2025

Philly’s offence scored 27.2 points a game, good for 7th in the league, while ranking 13th in offensive DVOA, behind the run game of Barkley and passing game threat of receivers AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith and tight end Dallas Goedert.

With so little splitting the two teams – and the remarkable stat that in 132 starts with Patrick Mahomes as QB, Kansas City has lost by more than 8 points only five times – it’s obvious why fans should be licking their lips at this Super Bowl showdown.

There is, of course, also an Aussie flavour to Super Bowl LIX, with big Jordan Mailata helping anchor the Eagles offensive line and helping provide Barkley and Hurts with clear rushing lanes.

If the Eagles can get up, Mailata would be the first Australian to play in and win a Super Bowl.

As it stands, it’s tough to get past KC’s ability to win close games: they’ve done it all season and every time in the Reid-Mahomes era.

But the Eagles defence has taken on all-comers, and if Saquon can dictate terms, it would be no surprise to see the birds get up.

So, watch the NFL Straya Super Bowl above to see who should win and why.

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Do the Chiefs become the first NFL team to ever three-peat?

Will Jalen Hurts do enough in the air to let Saquon do his work on the ground?

Has Travis Kelce got one more classic in him?

Can Patrick Mahomes make this janky offence sing?

Will the Eagles defensive unit dictate the game?

Who will win Super Bowl LIX?

Find out with NFL Straya’s Super Bowl LIX preview and breakdown above.

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NFL SUPER BOWL LIX 

MONDAY FEB 10 10.30am AEDT 

Super Dome, New Orleans 

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Philadelphia Eagles

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