Wreck it Ralph: How top picks of 2023 draft will shape their clubs
The 2023 draft’s stars are about to explode into the AFL, and look set to play a big role in where the veterans of the AFL could head this off-season. JON RALPH analyses the young guns.
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Matt Rowell didn’t just torch Richmond on Saturday, he gave the AFL world a prelude of what they can expect from the No.1 overall pick’s next decade.
The fifth-year player took some time to realise his full potential as a Gold Coast priority pick but the 20-clearance performance was downright scary.
If recent history is any guide the clubs which nail those very early picks can expect them to perform on the biggest stage winning flags for their teams.
Think No.3 pick Dustin Martin (2017, 2019, 2020), pick 4 Marcus Bontempelli (2016), Melbourne trio Christian Petracca (pick 2), Clayton Oliver (pick 4) and Luke Jackson (pick 3) in 2021 and Nick Daicos (pick 4) and Jordan De Goey (pick 5) last year.
This weekend the competition is about to witness a new breed of top 10 picks whose influence will also have a profound effect on their club’s list management in a year dubbed by some as a potential superdraft.
Western Bulldogs midfielder Ryley Sanders and Kangaroos medium forward Zane Duursma are about to set supporter hearts racing in a draft class that includes Harley Reid, Colby McKercher, Nick Watson, Caleb Windsor, Nate Caddy and St Kilda half forward Darcy Wilson.
The trickle down effect of Duursma and Sanders’ debut seasons will be fascinating to watch.
Luke Beveridge already has a man crush on pick 6 Sanders at a club that identified that need for elite talent at the pointiest end of the draft.
The Dogs traded pick 10, 17 and a future first-rounder just to get to the No.4 draft pick it took to get Sanders (that pick shuffled back to 6, the Dogs also got some later picks back).
He has made such a pre-season splash the Dogs are already figuring out how to squeeze Jackson Macrae and Caleb Daniel in the centre square at times, let alone Bailey Smith when he returns from his ACL tear next year.
If Sanders can play with the authority he showed across the pre-season - including his brilliant Launceston clash with Hawthorn - then Sanders, Marcus Bontempelli and Tom Liberatore are the Dogs three musketeers.
There might be room for a fourth member of their posse - d’Artagnan - in ruckman Tim English but it’s hard to see how Macrae and Daniel get meaningful midfield time.
Daniel has three more years on his contract signed as a free agent in mid-2022 and might only be squeezed into the sub role against Melbourne.
And Macrae, who also signed a free agency deal in 2022, has four more seasons left on a deal through to 2027.
Macrae already struggled as a half forward last year, missing the club’s top 10 despite being All Australian in three of the four years before 2023.
Beveridge will face a challenge keeping his troops happy this year juggling centre square opportunities, but if Sanders can emerge as a bona fide star there is also opportunity for the Dogs and Macrae.
Macrae only turns 30 in August.
Would Macrae look at the example of inside bull Taylor Adams, moved out of the Pies midfield and then asking Sydney about its interest before brokering a new four-year deal in the Harbour City?
Food for thought if he remains starved of midfield time given rivals across the competition would clearly hand over a quality pick for the relentless ball winner.
The Dogs would already believe giving up that trio of quality picks for Sanders was a bargain instead of using them at a stage in the draft when the percentages of taking elite players falls away.
At Moorabbin last week as Jimmy Webster was poleaxing Jy Simpkin - and a foul-mouthed Alastair Clarkson was embarrassing himself again - a similar change of the guard was afoot.
North Melbourne’s No.4 draft pick Zane Duursma was scorching the Moorabbin turf.
He flew for marks from everywhere, drew head-high free kicks for goals with his attack on the ball and dragged down St Kilda players with ferocious tackles.
The North Melbourne forward line got three goals out of Nick Larkey, two out of Cam Zurhaar and two from Duursma along with 14 possessions, six marks and a heap of moments to excite the Kangaroos faithful.
As talented mid-forward Tarryn Thomas exited stage left, it only handed Zurhaar more leverage in his free agency contract talks with the Roos.
How could they afford to lose him given the Roos were already bereft of quality options apart from the brilliant Larkey?
From that limited cameo, we have seen the future at North Melbourne and it is Duursma playing for the next 8 years alongside 25-year-old full forward Larkey.
Hopefully it includes Zurhaar in a multi pronged attack.
Zurhaar still deserves to be paid what some would consider breathtaking sums if he can kick 40 goals this year in an ordinary free agency market without many goal-kicking forwards.
But if Duursma does what we expect in coming years, it doesn’t have to be the Zane and Zurhaar show.
A cashed-up Roos can offer Zurhaar something entirely reasonably, even something in the region of $750,000-$800,000 given that will be the market for free agency forwards of his calibre.
But if someone wants to better that deal the Roos can take the first round free agency compensation pick and move on.
All the while knowing the free agency compensation pick they got for the departing Ben McKay just got them Duursma — while saving $800,000 a year.
Hang on, you say.
Why would someone be crazy enough to spend $800,000 on a 40-goal forward like Zurhaar or Gold Coast’s Ben Ainsworth?
Because in this year more than any in recent memory they will be desperate to retain their picks in an elite draft stacked with quality midfielders.
The kind of midfielders who can make an impact like Rowell and Nick Daicos and Harry Sheezel and Harley Reid and Ryley Sanders.
Last year clubs clamoured for draft packages that might secure them boom No.1 pick Reid.
This year the potential midfield stars are plentiful - Oakleigh Chargers pair Jagga Smith and Finn O’Sullivan, damaging 194cm mid-forward Josh Smillie, South Australian Sid Draper, big bodied Greater Western Victoria Rebels mid Sam Lalor plus Will Ashcroft’s brother Levi.
So clubs needing mids will desperately be attempting to hold onto their top 10 picks, even as they assess players like Bailey Smith and Macrae as trade options.
Those clubs will try to follow Essendon’s lead, securing Ben McKay, Jade Gresham and Todd Goldstein without giving up a draft pick.
As a result, free agents like Zurhaar, St Kilda’s Josh Battle and Hugh McCluggage can expect sky-high prices whether they stay or go.
There is a simple unadulterated joy in watching first-year kids hit the big time, but in the complex world of list management nailing those picks sets up a world of possibilities.
Originally published as Wreck it Ralph: How top picks of 2023 draft will shape their clubs
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