Ultimate run home: Way too early analysis for where every club will finish at the end of the season
The mid-season byes are here – it’s time to look at every club’s run home. And, after what happened last week, it’s not pretty reading for Hawthorn fans. See our full ladder predictor.
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As the mid-season byes begin, it’s time to have a look at every club’s draw for the remainder of the season.
Here is a way-too-early run home — and a look at where your club could finish.
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1. COLLINGWOOD
Won: 9, Lost: 2, Drawn: 0, Percentage: 132.9
The Magpies are flying and are the clear premiership favourites as they navigate a raft of key injuries with ease. From here, Craig McRae’s side leaves Victoria just twice for matches against Gold Coast and Adelaide. Collingwood has already beaten Carlton, Fremantle, Brisbane (at the Gabba) and Adelaide this season and has seven games to come against current bottom-10 opponents. The Magpies went 18-5 during their premiership season in 2023 and look more than capable of eclipsing that record this year.
2. BRISBANE LIONS
Won: 8, Lost: 2, Drawn: 1, Percentage: 113.1
The Lions aren’t roaring quite like they were last year. Their percentage of 113.1 — the second-lowest of the top-eight sides — reflects that. However, the reigning premiers are clearly still very capable and should be able to secure a top-four finish for the fifth time in seven years despite a difficult run home. Brisbane faces all seven fellow top-eight opponents in the lead-in to finals. However, Chris Fagan’s side has already scored away wins over Hawthorn and the Western Bulldogs this year. They have also won 12 of their past 13 matches against the Suns. Away games against Adelaide, Geelong and Collingwood will present big challenges, though.
3. GOLD COAST
Won: 8, Lost: 2, Drawn: 0, Percentage: 131.9
A favourable fixture has come to an end for the Suns, who have some tougher opponents to come. Gold Coast faces six games against fellow top-eight opponents to finish the home-and-away campaign, including two games against the Giants and matches against top-two sides Collingwood and Brisbane Lions. There are also matches to come against Fremantle and Essendon (twice), who are both knocking on the door of the top-eight. At the other end of the spectrum, there is only one match ahead against a bottom-three side in Richmond — who Gold Coast lost to at Marvel Stadium in round 6. All that said, there are seven home games ahead – where the Suns have gone 2-0 so far this season. With an extra game in hand on the rest of the top-eight sides, a finals debut beckons. But a top-four finish looks a stretch.
4. ADELAIDE
Won: 7, Lost: 4, Drawn: 0, Percentage: 130.6
The Crows are finals-bound for the first time since their 2017 Grand Final flop. Seven of their last 12 games are at the Adelaide Oval and they face away matches against each of the bottom-three sides in Richmond, West Coast and North Melbourne. That could be enough to keep their percentage sky-high and see them potentially sneak into the top-four. Adding to the cause, the Crows don’t have any five-day breaks in a nice run home. Matthew Nicks’ side has lost away games against Gold Coast (one point) and Collingwood (10 points) but may be favoured to beat both in re-matches at Adelaide Oval.
5. GEELONG
Won: 7, Lost: 4, Drawn: 0, Percentage: 122
Talk about a dream finish to the season. The remaining fixture could hardly be better for the Cats, who face only three fellow top-eight teams in the last 12 rounds. They have nine games to come in Victoria — including six at GMHBA Stadium. There are also four games remaining against bottom-three opponents in West Coast, Richmond (twice) and North Melbourne. The Cats lost to GWS at GMHBA Stadium in round 9, so the trip to ENGIE Stadium could be difficult in round 18. They also lost to St Kilda by seven points at Marvel Stadium in round 2, but should have the Saints’ measure on their home turf down the highway in that rematch.
6. HAWTHORN
Won: 7, Lost: 4, Drawn: 0, Percentage: 117.4
The Hawks are sitting in the top-eight for now, but can they stay there? Not unless they get back to their best form of 2024. A nightmare finish to the season awaits, starting with two games in six days against fellow top-eight opponents Collingwood and the Western Bulldogs. Those are two of six current top-eight teams that Sam Mitchell’s side faces to finish the season, while the only bottom-three side they meet is North Melbourne in round 16. The final month leading into September will be most telling, with games against Adelaide, Collingwood, Melbourne and Brisbane Lions. If the Hawks can’t win at least two of those, they may well miss the finals cut.
7. WESTERN BULLDOGS
Won: 6, Lost: 5, Drawn: 0, Percentage: 126.5
Will this be the year that Luke Beveridge steers his side to a top-four finish for the first time? The Bulldogs would be licking their lips over a favourable fixture to finish the year. There are only two interstate trips to come and only four match-ups against current top-eight opponents. Hawthorn won’t be an easy kill after the bye but aren’t in good form, while Beveridge’s side shouldn’t be losing games against St Kilda, Richmond, Sydney or North Melbourne in the month after that. The Bulldogs beat arch rival GWS by 32 points at Manuka Oval in round 7 and only lost to Fremantle by 16 points in round 4 in Perth so should take the chocolates against both sides at Marvel Stadium in the final month.
8. GWS GIANTS
Won: 6, Lost: 5, Drawn: 0, Percentage: 109.9
The Giants have had an up-and-down first half of the season, but should be able to gather some momentum in the second half of their campaign. They should beat bottom-four sides Richmond and Port Adelaide over the next fortnight, and still face bottom-two sides West Coast and North Melbourne after that. Seven of GWS’ 12 games to come are within NSW-ACT and they get home games against fellow top-eight sides Gold Coast and Geelong. Adam Kingsley’s side has already beaten the Cats this year, scoring a four-point triumph at GMBHA Stadium in round 9. Two five-day breaks leading into games against Essendon and the Western Bulldogs are among the few tricky points in the remaining draw.
9. FREMANTLE
Won: 6, Lost: 5, Drawn: 0, Percentage: 105.6
The Dockers produced some poor performances to start the year, but look to have found some rhythm with their ball movement and scoring in recent weeks and have a reasonable run home. They won’t be favoured to win an away game against Gold Coast this week, but should beat North Melbourne, Essendon, St Kilda and Sydney after the bye. They get to play fellow top-eight side Hawthorn at Optus Stadium and face two bottom-three teams in North Melbourne and West Coast. There is still work to do, but Justin Longmuir’s side looks every chance to feature in September.
10. ESSENDON
Won: 6, Lost: 4, Drawn: 0, Percentage: 85
When will the Bombers’ next win come? It might not be until after the bye considering their lengthy injury list and recent form. They will be long odds against Brisbane on Thursday night, while Carlton, Geelong and Fremantle (away) will also be big hurdles to clear. Essendon faces Carlton twice in the run home, so we will give them one win from those two matches. They also face a finals-bound Gold Coast twice, among seven games against top-eight opponents. Richmond is the only bottom-three opponent left, while there are two five-day breaks leading into games against Fremantle and GWS.
11. MELBOURNE
Won: 5, Lost: 6, Drawn: 0, Percentage: 89.3
After a 0-5 start to the season, the Demons have found some form to win five of their past six matches. The run should continue against the Saints in Alice Springs this weekend, but six current top-eight opponents await in the final 11 games after that. They include two games against ladder-leader Collingwood and away matches against Gold Coast and Adelaide. But at the other end of the ladder there are three games against bottom-four sides Port Adelaide, North Melbourne and West Coast, as well as a second meeting with the Saints. All going well, the Demons should at least match their 11-win campaign of 2024.
12. CARLTON
Won: 4, Lost: 7, Drawn: 0, Percentage: 102.8
It’s not a bad run home for the Blues, but we can’t forget that this side has only beaten four different clubs since round 17 last year — North Melbourne, West Coast, Geelong and St Kilda. Losses to Sydney and GWS heading into the bye effectively ended Carlton’s finals hopes this year, despite coach Michael Voss saying his side could “absolutely” still make the cut. Four games against bottom-10 teams await after the break, but there are still four games against top-eight opponents after that. The Blues only have three more interstate trips to make, but do have two five-day breaks heading into games against Port Adelaide and Hawthorn and have three games in 11 days between rounds 14 and 17.
13. SYDNEY
Won: 4, Lost: 7, Drawn: 0, Percentage: 93.2
They have won two of their past four games, but a 53-point loss to Melbourne last weekend again showed that the Swans are struggling. Their only win against a current top-eight side this season came against GWS in round 8 and they still face five top-eight opponents in the run home starting with Adelaide this week. Injuries and unavailability continue to bite and there isn’t too much respite on the way before the bye, with the likes of Errol Gulden and Tom Papley still a month away from returning. The Swans have six home games to come at the SCG, but have only gone 2-3 on their home turf this year.
14. ST KILDA
Won: 4, Lost: 7, Drawn: 0, Percentage: 89.8
How many more wins will the Saints secure? Maybe only a couple. It is a mixed second half of the season for Ross Lyon’s side, which is capable of scoring the odd upset win — as it has shown in triumphs over Geelong and Fremantle in the first half of the year. However, they’re a hard team to trust at the moment, having lost a round 10 game against bottom-of-the-table West Coast. The current three-game losing streak could extend for some time, with Melbourne having found form and the Western Bulldogs, Collingwood, Fremantle and Hawthorn all shaping as difficult opponents after the bye. St Kilda beat the Dockers by 61 points at Marvel Stadium in a shock round 8 result, but Fremantle has since found some form and will be a different proposition in Perth.
15. PORT ADELAIDE
Won: 4, Lost: 7, Drawn: 0, Percentage: 79.1
It doesn’t get any easier for Ken Hinkley and his under-pressure side, which has underwhelmed across the first half of the year and has posted some horror results across the past month. Already on a four-game losing streak, the Power face a top-eight outfit in GWS after the bye, before tackling an in-form Melbourne. There are five more top-eight opponents to come in the final eight weeks of the season, plus a Fremantle side that is pushing hard for a September berth. Therefore, it could be a long year for Power fans.
16. RICHMOND
Won: 3, Lost: 8, Drawn: 0, Percentage: 69.2
The Tigers have already exceeded expectations by winning three of their first 11 games, but it is hard to pencil in any more triumphs across the rest of the campaign. Richmond still has seven games to come against current top-eight sides and four interstate trips as well as a hike down the highway to Geelong. The Tigers have already lost games to Essendon (23 points), St Kilda (82 points) and North Melbourne (four points) this year, while they only beat West Coast by two points at the MCG in round 9 and face a double-up match against the Eagles in Perth in round 19.
17. NORTH MELBOURNE
Won: 2, Lost: 8, Drawn: 1, Percentage: 78.1
The Kangaroos have only two wins to this point of the season, but should pocket a few more in the run home and better their three-win 2024 campaign. In fact, if they can get to five wins it would be their best season since 2019. North Melbourne has already beaten Richmond this year and will also rate its chances against fellow bottom-three battler West Coast after the bye. But there are also five games to come against current top-eight opponents.
18. WEST COAST
Won: 1, Lost: 10, Drawn: 0, Percentage: 64.6
The Eagles should win at least a couple more games this season, given eight of their last 12 games are in Western Australia. They lost to Richmond by two points at the MCG in round 9, but will rate their chances in a round 19 rematch in Perth. West Coast also faces fellow bottom-three side North Melbourne and a struggling Sydney in home matches during the second half of the year.
Originally published as Ultimate run home: Way too early analysis for where every club will finish at the end of the season
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