Ultimate game plan analysis: Every AFL club placed under the microscope to find out who really has the premiership ingredients
Sam Mitchell’s problems centre on the centre square. And the numbers are absolutely terrible. Find out all the holes in your club’s game plan.
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What’s your club’s game plan?
Is it to kick long like the Lions or chip it short like Carlton?
Is it to pile on pressure like Port Adelaide or cannon up the corridor like Gold Coast and North Melbourne?
Does it score from stoppages like Western Bulldogs or glean goals from turnovers like Richmond?
Brisbane is the most accurate team while the wonky Roos are the worst.
But from set-shots no club misses like Melbourne or slots them like the Giants.
What about premiership ingredients?
The past 10 premiers have all ranked in the top six for points against, points against from turnover and inside 50 differential.
Only Melbourne and Geelong fit that model this season.
But the Magpies are easily in on rounds 10-15 as their settled backline strangles opponents.
The Dockers are defensively sound but ultimately denied because of their inside 50 difference while the Blues are bound to break in given their continual improvement.
In this exclusive game plan extravaganza, SAM LANDSBERGER puts every AFL club under the microscope alongside experts ROB HARDING and Champion Data’s COREY MOBILIO.
Harding spent 12 years as an opposition strategist and assistant coach, including Geelong’s 2011 premiership.
ADELAIDE
* Happy to force stoppages; high handball; low marks; safer exiting defensive 50 compared to 2021
STOPPAGE RETURN
+ 1st points from stoppages Rds 1-5
– 16th points from stoppages Rds 6-15
WITHOUT THE FOOTY (Rds 6-15)
+ 4th pressure applied
+ 1st defensive 50 to inside 50
+ 4th opposition scores per inside 50
CONTEST
+ 9th contested possession differential and post-clearance contested possession differential (No. 12 and No. 14 last year)
+ 5th ground ball differential (No. 9 last year)
BALL USE AND TERRITORY
– 18th kick rating
– 16th forward-half intercepts
– 15th inside 50 differential
– 14th time in forward-half differential
MATTHEW Nicks didn’t miss. “I feel like a broken record – it’s execution,” he said after round 14. “We had some horrific turnovers in our back half, we found ways not to score when it was a lay-up … it was hard to watch. We handed that game of footy to the opposition.” Gold Coast kicked 13.7 from intercepts that day, five goals coming as gifts from Crows defenders. They’ve become the Adelaide Butchers with sloppy ball use the story of their season. Rob Harding reckons they should recruit an expert kicker off halfback or a hard-running wingman like Ed Langdon and slow down their ball movement. Admittedly Paul Seedsman has been sidelined by concussion this season. “The challenge the Crows face is their transition speed is unable to match their ball speed at times, so they can’t get up the ground quick enough to lock the ball in their forward half. As a result they rank 16th for forward-half turnovers, which is a key score generator for teams,” Harding said. “The other one is inconsistency with their stoppage work. When you’re losing centre bounce you’re forced to counter-attack a lot out of your back half. As they get more consistent with their stoppage work, and we’ve seen Reilly O’Brien and Matt Crouch get dropped, that’ll help them play more of a forward-half game.” The Crows rank 15th for points conceded from centre bounce.
GOLD NUGGET: Sam Berry is ranked No. 1 in the AFL for pressure points and tackles, ahead of Matthew Rowell.
BRISBANE LIONS
* High kicking; high marks; more aggressive ball movement compared to previous; most accurate club in front of goal
POTENCY
+ 1st for points scored
+ 5th for scores per inside 50
MULTIPLE MODES
+ 1st points from forward half
+ 3rd points from turnover differential
+ 4th points from stoppage differential
+ 6th points from defensive half
DEFENCE SLIP UP (Rds 9-12)
– 17th points against from stoppages
– 14th total points against
– 13th pressure applied
THE Lions’ 55 home-and-away wins ranks No. 1 since the start of 2019, one ahead of Geelong. So their method works. But what will be plan B) and C) when their contest game next crumbles, which happened against Melbourne? “Is it Zac Bailey inside for longer periods?” Harding said. “Is it Charlie Cameron inside for a few minutes? They’re generally a pretty solid six-forwards-ahead-of-the-ball team at all times. Is it bringing extra numbers up to stoppage for periods? Just to congest the game, slow it down and get it back on their terms. That might be something they look to in the second half of the year or in the final.” That said, their contest work has largely been outstanding, led by dual Brownlow Medal threat Lachie Neale. Their midfielders kick long and direct, where the three-headed monster of Joe Daniher, Eric Hipwood and Dan McStay, provide aerial strength and help create a strong forward-half game as their smalls get involved. “They’ve won 11 of 14 games when it comes to contested possession,” Harding said. “They just need to avoid the inconsistency – you can’t go -32 in a half against Melbourne and expect to compete in a final, it’s just not going to happen for them. So their contest game is their one-wood.”
GOLD NUGGET: DANIEL RICH’S 8513m gained ranks No. 2 in the AFL while HUGH McCLUGGAGE is the competition’s No. 1 ‘money kick’ going inside 50.
CARLTON
Clear DNA under Michael Voss; high disposals; happy to go wide exiting defence; No. 1 for short kicks and disposals, improving turnover game the next layer which we’ve seen improve of late.
CONTEST AND STOPPAGE
+ 4th points from stoppage
+ 2nd clearance differential
+ 2nd centre clearance differential
+ 2nd contested possession differential
TURNOVER GAME
– 13th points from turnover differential (Rds 1-6)
+ 4th points from turnover differential (Rds 7-15)
DEFENCE WATCH
– 15th pressure applied
– 11th opposition points from defensive half
– 12th points against from turnovers
– 15th opposition halfback to inside 50
– 8th inside 50s conceded (and 11th from Rds 11-14)
CARLTON’S DNA is everything Michael Voss once was. The easiest team to analyse because it all starts with clearance kings Patrick Cripps, George Hewett, Adam Cerra, Matthew Kennedy and, of course, Sam Walsh. They give up less than a goal a game at centre bounce and that’s because they often win them. “They’re top-three in the AFL for ground ball, top-two for clearance team and the one that really stands out to me is ability to get out after stoppages and get to the next contest,” Harding said. “So they’re a top-two team for post-clearance looseballs, which is a good indicator of your ability to spread from stoppages. Imagine the ball leaves a stoppage, gets kicked to a contest, gets spoiled and hits the ground, how well are we getting our next numbers for that contest? Post-clearance looseballs are a good example of that. The way they’ve used Sam Walsh in recent weeks has aided that, and they do have a deep-batting midfield that is really strong and will challenge the best midfields in the competition.” The midfield blend is beautiful because there’s both bulk and run. “It’s a credit to their fitness team and the balance of their midfield that guys like Cerra and Walsh can get out and get to the next contest. It’s a good mix of big bodies inside and also guys that can run and get to the next contest.” Defending ball movement remains a work in progress. But the no-frills backline is working wonders, evidenced by last week’s strangle of Fremantle and restricting Richmond to 81 points from 76 entries the previous week. “It’s a great credit to Michael Voss’ coaching staff the system they put in behind the ball,” Harding said. “Their backs play a highly assertive defence. They come up in front of their opponents and trust that they’ll get support from players rolling around behind, and they’ve had to do it with an enormous amount of change through their key defenders, given the number of injuries and the retirement of Liam Jones. It’s been a strength of theirs in how well they’ve established the system. It’s also potentially a weakness that when they don’t win stoppage and don’t win contest, that assertive system with players that haven’t played a lot together can get exposed a little bit. The stoppage, clearance and contest stuff is huge. When you’re top two for clearances and centre bounce clearances it just gives you field position and allows you to get the game on your terms. My worry for them is when someone like Brisbane can match them in that, how well can they handle the ball coming back the other way?”
GOLD NUGGET: GEORGE HEWETT is ranked No. 1 in the AFL for centre clearances and No. 2 for disposals-per-turnover. MATT OWIES is ranked No. 1 for forward 50 tackles while ADAM SAAD’S 81 running bounces is more than double the next-best, Nick Hind’s 36.
COLLINGWOOD
* Embraced imperfection; Richmond model; high turnover matches; high play-on rate; handball forward; aggressive ball movement
DEFENCE (Rds 10-15)
+ 1st points against
+ 1st opposition scores per inside 50
+ points against from turnovers
FRONT-HALF NUMBERS
+ 3rd forward-half pressure applied
+ 5th inside 50 differential
+ 2nd forward-half intercepts
– 14th score per inside 50
STOPPAGE
– 15th clearance differential
– 13th ground ball differential
– 11th contested possession differential
– 12th points from stoppage differential
JACK Graham told the Herald Sun after the Tigers beat Collingwood: “It was Richmond v Richmond, really, the way ‘Fly’ (Craig McRae) and ‘Leppa’ (Justin Lepptisch) coach. How they move the ball with the corridor, we wanted to own it but they wanted to defend it and vice-versa.” McRae and Leppitsch helped plot the Tigers’ 2017, 2019 and 2020 flags and there is suddenly a lot of yellow and black about the black and white. The Pies have embraced imperfection. They are happy to take territory and create chaos. “The thing they’ve carried over well from Nathan Buckley is organised team defence,” Harding said. “So when they get the ball in the forward half they do set up really well with Howe and Moore behind the ball, and they do play a sustainable forward-half game. They rate highly for forward-half turnovers and time in forward half. They’re finding multiple avenues to goal, which is really important. But they’re not ultra-predictable going forward, and that is a strength of theirs.” Brody Mihocek (28 goals), Jack Ginnivan (23) and Oli Henry (20) have spread the load. The looming question is on the other Brodie … Brodie Grundy, close to a return from injury. The Pies are 6-2 with re-signed ruckman Darcy Cameron the No. 1 man while Mason Cox has spiked towards 2018 prelim final levels. “It will be a big challenge to reintegrate Brodie,” Harding said. “The form of Darcy Cameron has been outstanding in the ruck, so whether it’s more of a 50-50 split and Brodie has to spend more time forward would be something they’ll consider. I don’t think they can play all three in the same side, so it’ll come down to form.”
GOLD NUGGET: BRAYDEN MAYNARD has won 45 per cent of one-on-one contests, ranked No. 3 in the AFL. JAMIE ELLIOTT is the game’s second-best forward-half pressure player.
ESSENDON
* Lost their 2021 brand; ball movement and scoring dried up; defence has gone backwards which was a concern at stages in 2021; second-youngest team and second-least experienced team on average
LITTLE WINS (Rds 10-14)
+ Ladder percentage of 86.9
+ 6th points against
+ 2nd points against from stoppages
BALL MOVEMENT
– 14th points from back half (down from 2nd in 2021)
– 11th for moving ball inside 50 from halfback (1st in 2021)
STOPPAGES
– 14th clearance differential (9th in 2021)
– 15th points from stoppage differential (2nd in 2021)
– 9th generating scores from clearance (1st in 2021)
PRESSURE
– 18th pressure applied
SANGUINE Bomber fans look away now, because the 2022 analysis gets ugly. “The main point for Essendon continues to be their inability to defend full-ground ball movement,” Harding said. “Since 2019 they’ve ranked in the bottom four for forward-half intercepts and for allowing the ball to move the length of the field in every single year. This has been a consistent system issue they haven’t been able to rectify.” Harding sat in the MCG stands for the match against Carlton and thought defenders looked lost. “Some guys press up and some guys fold back, so there are inconsistencies in their system which make it really tough on their backs. Their defenders have to defend fast attack, which is really challenging to do, and then they also have to try and launch the counter-attack to get them to score. A lot is being asked of them at the moment.” The Bombers have been smashed by injury. But then again, so have the Blues. “Carlton have had to field a young back six and inexperienced key defender group, and yet their system is still clear. Essendon’s defence is the major issue and until that’s rectified they won’t be competitive,” Harding said. Why are they also last for pressure? “They don’t have the high premium on contest work that Melbourne, Brisbane and the top teams have, and their inability to shutdown teams around the contest also feeds quick ball movement against them that can be hard to defend,” Harding said. The hope hinges on generation next. “I’ve loved Mason Redman’s development as a really good attacking defender, Nic Martin has shown plenty as a wingman and we’re seeing more from Jye Caldwell, Nick Hind, Sam Durham, Archie Perkins and Ben Hobbs” Harding said. “That’s the genesis of the next great Essendon side.”
GOLD NUGGET: PETER WRIGHT has been targeted 121 times inside 50, ranked No. 1 in the AFL. JAYDEN LAVERDE has conceded 35 goals, the most in the AFL.
FREMANTLE
* Safe ball movement; low play-on rate; lowest metres gained per disposal; high disposals
DEFENCE
+ 2nd points against
+ 1st points against from turnovers
+ 1st opposition scores per inside 50
+ 2nd pressure applied
TERRITORY
+ 5th clearance differential
+ 6th forward-half intercepts
BALL MOVEMENT
– 16th for moving ball from defensive 50 to inside 50 (nine of past 10 premiers have ranked in the top six)
– 13th points from defensive half
ATTACK
– 15th scores per inside 50
– Outscored in five of past six matches from turnover
The Dockers are 3-1 against top-eight sides with a delightful, or Dee-lightful, midfield. “I see a lot of Melbourne in the young Fremantle midfield,” Harding said. “I feel like they’re developing to be the best midfield in the competition. But they need to add more depth over the coming years.” The midfield was once Nat Fyfe’s dancefloor, but now it is Andrew Brayshaw and Caleb Serong making the moves. Fyfe is finally fit and if he defends in transition like those young boys then Freo should be far more powerful. Coach Justin Longmuir has created a defensive model that is the envy of the league – but it comes at a scoring cost. “Their ball movement out of the back half is safe and very controlled, it’s not something that they can rely on to generate scores when the stoppage game is going against,” Harding said. The Dockers rank 12th for scores and their primary focus when moving the ball to keep their backline set in case of turnover. “They play safe, they don’t play on, they use short kicks and take uncontested marks. They really just creep the ball forward – it’s like a slow march up the field – to keep the ground set. Similar to how Geelong has played previously. Which means you can’t rely on it to be a scoring weapon. Clearly their weapon is their defensive organisation – they’re the best in the comp at preventing a score when it goes in. They are reliant on having a strong stoppage and clearance game to take the ball forward.”
GOLD NUGGET: SAM SWITOWSKI is the AFL’s No. 1 forward-half pressure player while MATT TABERNER is the third-most accurate goalkicker.
GEELONG
* Rounds 1-7 a significant change from previous years; low marks; go forward with ball; rounds 8-15 reverted towards previous brand; high disposals; high marks
DEFENCE (Rds 6-15)
+ 2nd points against
+ 1st points against from turnovers
+ 4th opposition scores per inside 50
SCORING
+ 4th points scored (but 7th rounds 9-15)
+ 2nd scores per inside 50 (but 8th rounds 9-15)
+ 2nd inside 50 differential
+5th time in forward half differential
CONTEST AND PRESSURE
– 6th contested possession differential (1st in 2021)
– 8th ground ball differential (2nd in 2021)
– 6th clearance differential (2nd in 2021)
– 11th pressure applied (6th in 2021)
THE changing of the midfield guard has been executed cleverly. Tom Atkins attended two centre bounces in the first nine games and has been in 87 in five matches since. Max Holmes attended five against Richmond while Jeremy Cameron booted Joel Selwood out in the last quarter at the MCG epic. No longer is it all about Patrick Dangerfield, Cam Guthrie and Selwood. What about this idea from Harding? “When Dangerfield returns can he and Cameron almost flip between mid and centre bounce to give them a different dynamic in the forward line around Hawkins?” Harding said. “The return of Dangerfield adds another player that can play centre bounce and drift forward, similar to Dustin Martin, and the increased number of players that Geelong uses through the midfield provides more coverage to allow that.” Then there is Tyson Stengle, who smart judges say is an All-Australian lock as a delisted free agent. “He’s provided potency around goal and a craft that Geelong had been missing in a consistent small forward over the last few years,” Harding said. “Guys like Luke Dahlhaus, Atkins, even Gary Ablett in 2020, they were more half-forwards up the ground rather than that genuine goalkicking small forward.” The Cats’ brand wasn’t premiership standard last year and the fresh eyes of Eddie Betts and James Kelly have helped the remould. “Their main focus is to retain a solid defensive structure as they move the ball up field, and as a result, their ability to play forward-half footy has remained intact,” Harding said. “Since Round 6 they’ve been a top-two defensive team, top-five time in forward half and inside 50m differential, so they’re playing a good forward-half game.”
GOLD NUGGET: Suspended star TOM STEWART’S intercept possessions have generated 113 points, ranked No. 1 ahead of Adam Saad (107 points), Bailey Dale (84), Charlie Ballard (74) and Paddy McCartin (73).
GOLD COAST
* Complete flip from 2021; control to chaos; use corridor more than most; low disposals; low marks; high play on rate
SLOW START (Rounds 1-7)
– 15th points against
– 14th points against from stoppages
– 14th points against from turnovers
– 15th opposition scores per inside 50
WHEN IT CLICKED (Rounds 8-15)
+ 2nd points scored
+ 3rd points against
+ 1st pressure applied
+ 3rd clearance differential
+6th ground ball differential
+ 4th contested possession differential
TERRITORY
+ 4th inside 50 differential
+ 3rd time in forward-half differential
+ 5th points from forward half
A SEASON of maturity from the only club yet to debut a player. Harding sat at Adelaide Oval for last week’s thriller and loved the intangibles, particularly after Port Adelaide’s fast start. “This is the first time they feel like there is an even spread rather than relying on one or two superstars like they had to in their early years,” he said. “The way they communicated with each other, the way they celebrated all the little team successes along the way – they’re all the little signs you look for as a team is developing. It’s not Touk Miller having to carry them, it’s this growing group and watching them play live they clearly had a spirit about them and they enjoyed playing together. That’s a super important part given their history over the last 10 years. They have shown a variety of modes – there were times they pulled their forwards up really high and used the fast break to get out the back when Port Adelaide had more control of the game. Then when Gold Coast got control they pulled their tall forwards back deeper and kept Aliir Aliir and Port Adelaide’s intercepting defenders engaged. In-game they’re adjusting really well and that’s showing a level of maturity among the group. I still think they need a key defender. Rory Thompson was the one they hoped would come back. He’s obviously had so many injury setbacks, but one more big-body key defender would help them and now their young players are just growing in confidence and class. And they’re doing the hard work, they’re doing the dirty work. They play a really good contest game.” The Suns rank 12th for shot at goal accuracy but sit 3rd for expected points and their percentage since round 8 is the highest in the AFL.
GOLD NUGGET: BEN AINSWORTH is the least accurate player in front of goal, going at 40 per cent.
GWS GIANTS
* Unleashed under caretaker coach Mark McVeigh; high disposals, high play on rate; use corridor exiting defensive 50
OFFENCE ‘SPIKE’ (Rounds 10-15)
+ 3rd points scored
+ 6th points from turnovers
+ 2nd points from stoppages
+ 3rd scores per inside 50
+ 1st points from defensive half
GONE BACKWARDS
– 14th points against
– 15th time in forward-half differential
– 13th contested possession differential (6th in 2021)
– 14th post-clearance contested possession differential (6th in 2021)
– 14th ground ball differential (4th in 2021)
Under Mark McVeigh Harding said they are the “GWS Globetrotters” now. “They’re high for disposals, they take the game on really aggressively and they use the corridor coming out of their back 50m now a lot more. The challenge with that is that they do open themselves up defensively and they are playing in a lot of shootout games as a result. But there is a freedom that comes with an interim coach – it’s exciting to watch. A couple of positional changes have been really, really strong and the key one there is Harry Himmelberg going behind the ball. They’ve become one of the fun teams to watch over the last few weeks. When you get an interim coach and a fresh set of eyes – and even James Hird being there more permanently and Dean Solomon coming in as well, a few different sets of eyes looking at the group you do just get a fresh look.” The biggest winner has been co-captain Stephen Coniglio, who is averaging 31.6 disposals under McVeigh – ranked No. 1 at the Giants and No. 7 in the AFL. “We’ve seen him come to life a little bit. He’s back around the midfield more and involved in much more play.”
HAWTHORN
* Rebuilding differently; low disposals, low marks; high play on; go long and direct; fourth-youngest side on average
BALL MOVEMENT
+ 4th defensive 50 to inside 50
+ 4th points from defensive half
EFFICIENCY
+ 1st score per inside 50
+ 3rd shot at goal accuracy
DEFENCE
– 16th points against
– 14th opposition scores per inside 50
MIDFIELD
– 17th contested possession differential
– 18th clearance differential
HARD TO GENERATE TERRITORY
– 16th inside 50 differential
– 16th time in forward-half differential
SAM Mitchell’s problems centre on the centre square. The Hawks are -5 at centre clearance – last in the AFL and more than twice as bad as 17th. They concede an AFL-most 14.5 points from centre clearance, leaking 20 points (Western Bulldogs) and 28 points (Fremantle) in their past two losses. “The thing Sam needs to look at through the second half of the year and into next pre-season is how they coach their contest work,” Harding said. “Only twice this year have they won contested possession – against North Melbourne and Geelong. They’ve won the tackle count three times and the clearance count three times. They’re not sustainable numbers to compete at the highest level.” The solution is two-pronged. “How do they generate bigger bodies and more strength through the midfield from a list management perspective, and how do they coach their contest method going forward?” Harding said. “(But) Sam’s shown great creativity in his coaching and the best example was tagging Ed Langdon with Finn Maginness. He was really the first one that went down that path and it showed a great knowledge of the opposition club and be willing to use his players to negate the opposition and take away one of their weapons.”
GOLD NUGGET: The Hawks have retained possession from 57 per cent of JAI NEWCOMBE’S kicks inside 50 – ranked No. 6 in the AFL.
MELBOURNE
* Play the game in their half; strong defensively; high handballs; still able to win ball back but less chaos in matches
DEFENCE
+ 1st points against
+ 2nd opposition scores per inside 50
+ 1st points against from stoppages
+ 2nd points against from turnovers
CONTEST
+ 1st contested possession differential
+ 1st post-clearance contested possession differential
+ 1st ground ball differential
+ 4th clearance differential
TURNOVER GAME
+ 3rd points from turnover (Rounds 1-7)
– 16th points from turnover (Rounds 8-14)
OFFENCE
– 7th points scored (5th in 2021)
– 11th scores per inside 50 (6th in 2021)
TOM McDonald is injured while none of Sam Weideman, Ben Brown and Mitch Brown caught fire when the Demons averaged just 57.7 points in three-straight defeats. But the goalkickers might not be to blame for the forward-line funk. “The area I would be looking at is more the delivery inside 50 rather than the personnel,” Harding said. “They are guilty of bombing the ball deep to high numbers and if they look to lower their eyes going inside 50 and hit up some short ones it’ll make them a little bit less predictable to the opposition and they’ll find some better avenues to score.” The June doom and gloom might’ve been overplayed. “There was a lot of conversation around their three losses, but what is still clearly evident is they’re the No. 1 defence, the No. 1 contested ball team, the No. 1 ground ball team and No. 1 for post-clearance contested possessions,” Harding said. “So their ability to spread and get out after contest is still really high. What we saw against Brisbane last weekend was that their best is still going to be significantly better than any other team in the competition.” What about West Australian Luke Jackson, the out-of-contract 20-year-old with a life-changing decision to make? Captain Max Gawn turns 31 in December and the Demons got a look at Jackson the No. 1 ruckman last week, which Harding said would help assess how big the contract offer should be to keep him. “The danger when you become a really good side is that sometimes you have to lose one to help keep a number of others, and if we go all the way back to Geelong at their peak losing Gary Ablett allowed them to keep probably four or five other players,” Harding said.
GOLD NUGGET: CHRISTIAN PETRACCA’S 18 goal assists ranks No. 1 in the AFL, ahead of Marcus Bontempelli (16), Tom Hawkins and Izak Rankine (15). Since round 10 JACK VINEY ranks No. 3 for contested ball, No. 2 for ground ball gets, No. 5 for tackles and No. 7 for disposals in the AFL.
NORTH MELBOURNE
* Only Adelaide and Essendon younger on average; high metres gained per disposal; use corridor more than most teams; poor kicking team
NEW RECORD, OLD GOLD
+ Aaron Hall’s 1173m gained against Adelaide broke Joel Bowden’s record of 1153m from round 4, 2009
+ Todd Goldstein, 34, the club’s highest-rated player in 2022
NOTHING WORKING
– Average of 55.9pts the lowest ever recorded, worse than the Giants’ 55.9 (2012)
– 17th points against
– 16th contested possession differential
– 17th pressure applied
– 16th clearance differential
– 18th scores per inside 50
– 15th opposition score per inside 50
WHAT a mess. These are the numbers Geoff Walsh could point to should he bring out the broom. “The two points I’d make around the game style is that offensively they’ve shown a real intent to bring the ball through the corridor, and that does leave them exposed on turnover,” Harding said. “And defensively, they’ve shown an intent to try and play a forward-half game although you’d really have to go back to the first month of the season to see it more. Their contest and stoppage numbers don’t allow them to gain field position to get set up for that.” Coach David Noble and forwards coach Heath Younie were at Adelaide in 2015 and you wonder whether they are attempting to reproduce Phil Walsh’s game plan, albeit with little if any success. Pumping games into under-23s Luke Davies-Uniacke, Paul Curtis, Tom Powell, Tristian Xerri, Jason Horne-Francis, Bailey Scott and Tarryn Thomas is probably the only real positive. It’s a road travelled by Melbourne under Mark Neeld – 2021 premiers – and GWS in its infancy – 2019 grand finalists. “They are a young team down on confidence. There is an element of you just need to play at the level,” Harding said.
GOLD NUGGET: Elite intercept mark BEN McKAY was thrown forward last week, registering 1.0 from four shots while CAM ZURHAAR’S shot-at-goal accuracy of 42 per cent is the second-lowest in the AFL.
PORT ADELAIDE
* Game built around pressure; safe ball movement; front-half dominance from previous years has declined; high marks and play-on rate
DEFENCE (Rounds 6-15)
+ 1st points against
+ 5th opposition scores per inside 50
+ 2nd points against from turnovers
+ 2nd points against from stoppages
+ 2nd on ladder in that time at 7-2
PRESSURE
+ 1st pressure applied
+ 1st post-clearance pressure
OFFENCE
– 15th points scored
– 12th points scored per inside 50
– 13th points from turnovers
– 11th inside 50 differential (5th in 2021)
– 9th forward-half intercepts (2nd in 2021)
DOES Charlie Dixon deny the Power unpredictability? “They’re still struggling to find what the right mix is with the use of Charlie Dixon going forward,” Harding said. “Obviously he missed a fair chunk and he’s had to play a bit of ruck in recent weeks. When Dixon’s forward they really focus on going through him and it becomes too predictable. I think there’s actually some strength in the periods where he’s not up there to make them a little bit less predictable going forward.” But Todd Marshall, the man who is making his move on the competition, might need a big man next to him to maximise his athleticism. “Having to stand under high balls repeatedly won’t be the best way to capitalise on his weapons,” Harding said. “So I think he needs a tall target next to him to work off and anytime they get speed of ball between the arcs, that’s when Marshall is going to be very dangerous against any opposition backman.” Port’s pressure is powering its resurgence, and it’s a spread of players including Williem Drew, Travis Boak and free agent wingman Karl Amon. “The positive for them is that after an 0-5 start they’ve been outstanding since then,” Harding said. “Their pressure has gone through the roof, they’re playing in a much more manic getting-after-the-opposition manner, and they’ve got the best defence since round 5.”
GOLD NUGGET: MARSHALL has recorded a shot-at-goal accuracy of 72 per cent this season – ranked third of the top-50 goalkickers.
RICHMOND
* Handball forward; low stoppages; high play on rate; high match turnovers; front-half efficiency fallen in recent weeks
OFFENCE
+ 3rd points scored
+ 1st points from turnovers
+ 6th time in forward-half differential
+ 1st forward-half intercepts
+ 1st points from forward-half intercepts
+ 3rd points from forward half
DEFENCE
– 12th points against
– 12th opposition score per inside 50
EFFICIENCY (Rounds 1-9)
– 11th inside 50 differential
+ 4th score per inside 50
+ 2nd shot at goal accuracy
EFFICIENCY (Rounds 10-15)
+ 6th inside 50 differential
– 17th score per inside 50
– 13th shot at goal accuracy
DAMIEN HARDWICK often talks about making it a ‘Richmond game’ and his players being ‘Richmond men’. Well, Dimma has developed a new breed of Tigers playing a damn similar way. Suddenly they are being driven by Shai Bolton, Jayden Short and Liam Baker. “They’d be three of the first players picked each week,” Harding said. “They’re really invested in this Richmond brand of football, and that’s the best bit about them – I think the style suits them and they suit the style, so it’s a credit to their recruiting guys and coaching staff to keep developing this next wave that is going to last long after the Cotchin and Martin period.” The diminishing reliance on Dusty is speckled with optimism. “There’s obviously been speculation around Dustin Martin and his future,” Harding said. “Even if he stays at Richmond, what is his best use going forward? Because they’re winning games and playing well without him dominating. It’s understandable, given his enormous weight loss at the end of last year, and his personal circumstances through the start of this year. But what will be the best way to use Dustin Martin in 2023? He’s still a great weapon, but he’ll now be able to complement other guys rather than having to be the dominant force that he has been.”
GOLD NUGGET: SHORT has gained 9.24km this year, effectively taking the Sherrin halfway from Punt Rd to his childhood suburb of Mill Park.
ST KILDA
* High kicking team; high marks; play quick, keep the ball moving; used the fewest amount of players
CONTEST CHAMPS (Round 1-8) …
+ 2nd points against from stoppages
+ 4th contested possession differential
+ 2nd ground ball differential
+ 4th clearance differential
… TO CONTEST CHUMPS (Rounds 9-15)
– 7th points against from stoppages
– 10th contested possession differential
– 9th ground ball differential
– 14th clearance differential
DOUR DEFENCE (Rounds 1-9) …
+ 5th points against
+ 4th opposition score per inside 50
+ 3rd pressure applied
… TO DEFENSIVE DECLINE (Rounds 10-15)
– 10th points against
– 14th opposition score per inside 50
– 17th pressure applied
THE pressure is on because their pressure has plummeted — from third in the AFL to second-last. That drop coincided with captain Jack Steele’s injury although he returned last week. It’s partly mindset and partly their game plan getting unpicked by rivals. “Teams have started controlling the ball more against them,” Harding said. “They’ve conceded an average of over 100 marks in the last month, so without the ball being in any sort of chaos for the opposition they haven’t been able to get after their opposition. At the same time, if St Kilda are quicker to close up and take away uncontested marks and get the game going back into a contest it feeds their pressure game, which leads to turnover and then they can get into their preferred ball movement.” There’s no main culprit although Josh Battle, Rowan Marshall, Bradley Hill, Brad Crouch and Tim Membrey’s pressure points have all dipped. Harding said the Saints’ first half against Essendon was “one of the poorest by any team this year”. But when the Saints were sitting pretty at 8-3 their brains trust noted they were never truly a top-four team because they overpowered teams with effort and fitness rather than through sheer domination. Harding doesn’t expect Taylor Walker to leave Adelaide but floated the full-forward being a shrewd target for the Saints. He is good mates with Crouch and there’s a Crows link through list boss James Gallagher while Max King needs a co-pilot post-Paddy Ryder. As for the criticism of King? “Max is a developing key forward. He’s kicked 35 goals, he’s had one goalless game for the entire season and he’s 21 years old. We’ve got a special talent in Max and we won’t see his best football for another four years, and from what we’ve seen already that’s a pretty scary report for opposition times,” Harding said.
GOLD NUGGET: KING, along with Tom Lynch, is the No. 1 contested mark in the game. The Saints have targeted King with 37 per cent of their inside 50s, ranked No. 1 in the AFL.
SYDNEY
* Low disposals; one of best kicking teams; use corridor; second-fewest amount of injuries to best 22; fourth-lowest time in front percentage
STRONG BOOKENDS
+ 5th points for
+ 6th points against
+ 4th points from turnover
+ 4th points against from turnover
+ 4th scores per inside 50
+ 5th opposition scores per inside 50
FALLING FRONT-HALF GAME
– 9th inside 50 differential (6th in 2021)
– 7th forward-half intercepts (4th in 2021)
– 8th points from forward-half intercepts (1st in 2021)
MATTHEW Richardson almost won the 2008 Brownlow Medal on the wing while Jeremy Cameron has become a burst onballer. Could a similar move be in the works for Lance Franklin next season? “Can we get him up the ground a little bit and get Logan McDonald more time deep so that we’re not so dependent on kicking the ball to Buddy every time we go forward?” Harding wondered. “Buddy is a beautiful kick and, as much as we love him being on the end of an inside 50, how good when he’s lacing his teammates going inside 50 as well? Can we turn three or four goals from Buddy into eight or nine goals setting up teammates and being involved in general play up the ground?” The Swans have been sloppy starters this season, winning only five first quarters, and inconsistency in games could cost them. “We saw them get 26 points down against Melbourne in the first quarter and 33 points down against Richmond in the second quarter and come back to win both games, which shows against two really strong teams a really high level of ability for this group. At the same time you can’t wait to get four, five, six goals up in the first quarter too often because you won’t be able to reel them back in every time. They need to rectify their starts massively if they’re going to be a contender in finals.”
GOLD NUGGET: PADDY McCARTIN leads the AFL for intercept marks and has lost just 10 per cent of his defensive one-on-one contests — ranked No. 2 in the competition.
WEST COAST
* No. 1 for backward kicks; go forward least of any team; lost most matches to best 22; fourth-oldest side on average; style similar to recent years
CENTRE BOUNCE
+ 1st points from centre clearance
+ 2nd converting centre clearances to scores
FROM WAFL TO AFL STANDARD (Rounds 10-15)
+ Scoring 37 per cent up from first nine rounds
+ 7th points from stoppages
+ 2nd shot at goal accuracy
+ 3rd goal per inside 50
DEFENCE
– 18th points against
– 18th opposition score per inside 50
– 18th points against from turnover
CONTEST AND TERRITORY
– 18th contested possession differential
– 17th post-clearance contested possession differential
– 17th clearance differential
-17th inside 50 differential
THE Eagles average 14.6 points from centre bounce, ranked No. 1 in the AFL. Yet they lose centre clearance by an average of -2.4, ranked 17th. It’s a bizarre pairing and with 2018 premiership stars settling back they are dangerous. Luke Shuey is the main man with West Coast scoring from 16 per cent of the takeaways he’s involved in. “They’re horrible at winning (centre clearance), but when they win them they score and score heavily,” Harding said. “Winning centre bounce is such an important part of setting the ground up and owning field position.” West Coast’s controlled kick-mark-kick-mark gamestyle remains although its chemistry was cracked by Covid. “The biggest obstacle for West Coast this year is they’ve used 45 players, so they’ve had no continuity,” Harding said. “But they are nothing like the side we saw in the first six weeks when they were bringing in WAFL players every week. They’re a little banana peel you don’t want to trip over in the run home.”
WESTERN BULLDOGS
* High disposals, high handball, No. 1 play-on rate, happy to go wide exiting defence 50 or force stoppages
CONTEST AND STOPPAGE
+ 1st points from stoppage
+ 1st clearance differential
+ 3rd contested possession differential
BALL MOVEMENT
+ 1st defensive 50 to inside 50
+ 1st halfback to inside 50
OFFENCE
+ 2nd points scored
+ 3rd scores per inside 50
+ 3rd inside 50 differential
DEFENCE
– 18th defensive one-on-one contest loss rate
– 12th defensive one-on-one contest win rate
– 15th opposition points from back half
– 10th points against
KEY forwards led by Jeremy Cameron (six), Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay (nine combined), Mitch Lewis and Jack Darling (both four) have piled on 73 goals against the Dogs this season, the third-most in the AFL. They need a 200cm defender and ironically, premiership Bulldog Jordan Roughead would’ve be perfect for this team. Harding said it was time to be daring. “I think there would be a serious conversation with West Coast, given where their list profile is at, around Jeremy McGovern,” he said. “Is there a way to get Jeremy for the last couple of years of his career as a key defender in that group? He’s 30 years old now, would he consider coming to Melbourne for two years to try and win a flag with the Bulldogs?” McGovern is contracted until 2023, but that doesn’t mean much these days. “It doesn’t have to be a high disposal-winning intercept key defender, I think it needs to be a 200cm lockdown defender,” Harding said. “That would mean Keath takes the (second) forward and the shuffle down helps get you set really well defensively. They are vulnerable to full-ground ball movement, and they still get vulnerable to one-on-ones behind the ball, which is an area they haven’t been able to rectify in recent years. If you can isolate and separate their defenders, that’s your best chance to score against them going back the other way.” Like in 2016, the magical midfield hands remain a point of difference. When Josh Bruce returns what’s the best forward structure? Does the surplus of inside midfielders mean Josh Dunkley or Marcus Bontempelli plays as the third forward? Or is it Jamarra Ugle-Hagan? “Right now scouting the Bulldogs you would heavily be anchoring your defence towards Naughton,” Harding said. “It’s a similar story to the previous couple of years – their contest work, their ability to flick the ball around by hand coming out of contest and stoppage is a strength, they play on at a really high rate, they get the ball forward quickly and it’s very much an offence brand of football.”
GOLD NUGGET: CALEB DANIEL and ED RICHARDS are the third and fourth-best kicks in the AFL. AARON NAUGHTON is surprisingly ranked No. 3 for forward 50 tackles while JOSH DUNKLEY is No.9.
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