To split, or not to split? West Coast’s big call in Liam Baker chase

It seems premiership Tiger Liam Baker won’t be at Richmond next season, but is he locked into the Eagles? Or will their recent draft history help send him to their rivals Fremantle?

How high a price are the Eagles willing to pay for Liam Baker? (Photo by Robert Cianflone/Getty Images)

Liam Baker’s football future lies in the hands of West Coast’s big draft call.

To split, or not to split.

Whether to take the best possible player with the earliest available pick (draft selection three), or to turn that selection into two later first-round selections to help secure the Baker trade.

It is an intriguing scenario complicated by the extraordinary evenness of the top-10 picks, by the club’s own recent draft history and by Baker’s keenness to find himself in Eagles colours.

With six home-and-away games left in Richmond’s season this much is clear.

If he does leave – and Western Australian-based clubs believe he will – then he does not want to see Richmond screwed over in any trade deal. He has made that clear to his WA pursuers.

So no pre-season draft shenanigans, no ambit claims to get him for a late second-rounder, just a quality pick going back in return for the Richmond vice-captain.

And while the Herald Sun has reported the former Eagles fan would like to get to West Coast, the Dockers believe they are in the race – and are a much better fit.

Baker seems on the way out of Tigerland. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

They would offer a five-year deal for Baker, who will turn 27 in January, and are desperate for more half-forward class to help hit-up Jye Amiss and Josh Treacy with those hard leads from the square. And with picks seven, 10 and 14, the Dockers are perfectly placed to hand over an elite pick.

West Coast will need to study the history of pick-splits and their own recent draft history to assess whether giving up a top-three pick is worth it, given their own premiership window seems so far off.

Last year, whether through total devotion to Harley Reid or just indecision about trading that pick, the Eagles took the best player in the draft. He seems a generational talent.

In the 2022 national draft, they passed-up pick 2 and Willie Rioli for two later selections (and a future second and third-round draft pick).

Those players were locals Reuben Ginbey and Elijah Hewett.

The No. 2 pick became Harry Sheezel who, quite simply, is a breathtaking talent.

The Eagles were worried about the flight risk, but this year Ginbey has regressed – by Champion Data rankings at least: below-average for disposals, contested possessions, clearances and metres-gained, and poor for scoreboard impact.

He is ranked 61st of the 75 midfielders to play eight or more games this year.

Hewett’s season has been a wipe-out through injury.

For a West Coast side with very few star prospects aged under 25, is taking 27-year-old Baker and a much later draft pick the way forward?

Fremantle will be desperately hoping the answer is no.

Hewett has struggled to stay on the park. (Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)

The history of pick swaps is mixed. Paul Roos still backs in the exchange that saw the Demons give up pick 2 (Josh Kelly) for pick 9 (Christian Salem) and Dom Tyson (and a later pick that secured Jayden Hunt), even though most of us would say the Giants won that day.

The Roos turned the No. 1 overall pick and the troublesome Jason Horne-Francis into Sheezel, George Wardlaw and a future Port Adelaide first-rounder that became project tall, Taylor Goad. Plenty of us wondered if they could have got more from that trade when it happened, but now every Roos fan would feel they won on that score.

St Kilda traded out pick 6 in the 2019 national draft to secure selections for Dougal Howard and Bradley Hill, missing on players including Hayden Young, Caleb Serong, Kysaiah Pickett, Will Day, Miles Bergman, Cody Weightman and Sam De Koning.

Gold Coast traded pick 2 for Lachie Weller and a late pick in 2017, but got Charlie Ballard with that pick.

And in 2016, the Dockers traded from three down to the Giants’ pick seven to get the late Cam McCarthy in a trade, but pick 3 became Hugh McCluggage to their selection (Griffin Logue).

In recent years, Melbourne traded up three spots to secure Clayton Oliver and the Giants traded up to take Lachie Ash.

So in theory, trading down from a very early pick is fraught with danger, but this year’s draft is a crapshoot.

The likely No. 1 pick entering the U18 championships, Josh Smillie had a quiet carnival.

There are a stack of elite mids (Smillie, Jagga Smith, Levi Ashcroft, Finn O’Sullivan, Sid Draper, Harvey Langford) a dashing intercept halfback (Toby Travaglia), a 194cm key position interceptor (Luke Trainor), and even a WA mid on the rise in 191cm Bo Allan.

Bo Allan is the pick of the WA talent in the draft. (Photo by Will Russell/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)

Eagles co-captain Oscar Allan is 25 – with 27 current Eagles younger than him – but only Reid standing out as a matchwinner, while the club has hopes for Campbell Chesser, Rhett Bazzo, Ginbey and Hewett.

But on the AFL’s relative ratings, which compare a player’s expected output by age and position, Reid is up 44 per cent on expected return, Ginbey is down one per cent. Then Ryan Maric is down 37 per cent, Chesser 25 per cent, Jack Williams 19 per cent, Brady Hough 26 per cent, Luke Edwards 54 per cent, Tyler Brockman 30 per cent, Jack Petrucelle 27 per cent.

So the Eagles badly need star power, which is most-readily available in the top few picks.

They also know that – in an improving team – Baker can do what he has at Richmond: fill holes, play some midfield and shore up areas of concern.

The problem is whether securing him will see them missing out on another Harry Sheezel.

Or in a deep draft, will it allow them to snare Baker and take the player they wanted all along, Bo Allan?

Originally published as To split, or not to split? West Coast’s big call in Liam Baker chase