The List Manager: Jon Ralph runs the rule over North Melbourne’s current group, its future and everything in between
The Roos aren’t near the premiership or finals window yet, but 2024 still shapes as a critical year, with one goal in mind. Jon Ralph runs the rule over the Roos’ list for 2024 and beyond.
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Footy’s worst team this decade will enter round 1 vastly improved from its 2023 fortunes but still totally aware how much improvement it needs to compete with footy’s heavyweights.
Even if the Roos take five selections in the November 20 national draft – and that now looks extremely likely despite talk of a mega-trade for pick 1 – there are still so many holes to fill on this list.
The middle-tier core has huge potential – Nick Larkey, Jy Simpkin, Luke Davies-Uniacke, Tarryn Thomas and Cam Zurhaar.
And the kids are coming – George Wardlaw, Harry Sheezel, Bailey Scott, Miller Bergman, Jackson Archer and Charlie Comben.
But, to be harsh, the Roos need an elite ruckman, an elite small forward, multiple key position defenders given Griffin Logue’s ACL tear and a second tall alongside Nick Larkey.
So there is a vast amount of work to do building standards, a rock-solid culture, depth in the list and an A-grade core to drag the Roos up from the bottom reaches of the ladder.
TRADE PERIOD SCORE
Rating: 7/10
The Roos did well to turn what was a sparse draft hand into an elite list of picks – 2, 3, 15, 17 and 18.
The AFL sure helped in handing out a trio of end-of-first-round picks as the Roos used trades with Sydney and Gold Coast to bring the pair of 2024 end-of-first-round picks into 2023.
Ben McKay was always leaving and after some horse trading Essendon paid up to get the Roos pick 3.
Ex-Carlton utility Zac Fisher will be a slashing defensive runner who at his best adds spark and elite kicking, while ex-Sydney wingman Dylan Stephens is a work in progress.
But the early picks give the Roos the chance to take Tassie midfielder Colby McKercher and 190cm mid-forward Zane Duursma then a trio of talls at 15, 17 and 18. That’s if they baulk at the Eagles’ crazy demands for pick 1 and the rights to Harley Reid.
LIST HOLES
Let’s start with the positives.
In round 1 next year all of Wardlaw, Sheezel, Thomas, Simpkin, LDU, Will Phillips, Tom Powell, Liam Shiels and Hugh Greenwood will be competing for midfield rotations along with McKercher and Duursma.
Scott and Stephens can share the wings with Zac Fisher pushing up from half back.
At some stage the three-pronged mid-forward rotation could be Thomas, Zurhaar and Duursma.
It would be a sight for sore eyes.
But there are clear holes – first ruck Xerri played eight games, averaged 11 possessions, kicked three total goals and was below average for hit-outs to advantage percentage.
The Roos need to discover Brent Harvey 2.0 given only three players kicked 20 or more goals (Larkey, 71, Jaidyn Stephenson, 26, and Zurhaar, 20).
Paul Curtis (17 goals) took steps forward while Eddie Ford kicked nearly a goal a game, but the Roos need a Kozzie Pickett-Shai Bolton-Liam Henry-Tyson Stengle chaos agent inside 50.
So the Roos need another key tall (or Callum Coleman-Jones needs to fire), small forwards, running defenders and multiple key backs given Ben McKay’s departure.
Aidan Corr, Toby Pink, Bigoa Nyuon and Charlie Comben will not strike fear into the hearts of opposition key forwards, which is why the Roos will try to bolster their key defensive stocks through the draft and delisted free agency period.
DRAFT STRATEGY
Senior North Melbourne football figures believe the chance to secure the No. 1 pick in the national draft is basically done and dusted.
Nothing would shock as a draft-night surprise, but having offered pick 2 plus a pair of picks 15, 17 and 18 and been knocked back, the Roos feel the Eagles want to take pick 1 to the draft.
That overriding feeling – the Eagles want the moon AND the stars for pick 1, and North Melbourne simply has too many list holes to give up four or five first-rounders for one player.
Giving away a future first-rounder would be insanity given the Roos could still win 6-8 games next year and finish bottom-two in a competition with only North and the Eagles certain to be 2024 strugglers.
There is zero chance the Roos will give up picks 2 and 3 for the Eagles pick 1.
North Melbourne sees those later picks – 15, 17, 18, as perfect opportunities to bolster their tall stocks.
Alastair Clarkson has been fully involved in talent-spotting and meeting prospective draftees, but the decision on who is picked will come down to list boss Brady Rawlings and recruiting boss Will Thursfield.
Clarko will have involvement, but will stay in his lane.
Even after taking five draft picks the Roos have scope to add delisted free agents to cover list gaps including another key defender.
UNDER THE PUMP
Is Cam Zurhaar the king of the cameo or a bone fide star?
He has only played 20 games once in his career.
The 25-year-old’s best goal tally is 34.
One game sticks out – his four goal, five-tackle game against Richmond as a wrecking ball who decimated the Tigers.
He and Thomas have the talent to be All Australian 44 members next year, but how much do they want it? How devoted are they to the craft of playing AFL football with all the professionalism that entails?
PREMIERSHIP WINDOW
Next question….
The Roos have an elite administration, an elite senior coach, a strong coaching team (Jed Adcock as forwards coach, Xavier Clarke coaching offence, Leigh Adams in defence).
But let’s not kid ourselves, the Roos are three years from being a contender for finals let alone a premiership charge.
AFL PLAYER RATINGS IN 2023 AND A BOLTER
PLAYERS WHO MADE THE TOP 100 IN THE AFL PLAYER RANKINGS IN 2023 AND A 2024 BOLTER
Luke Davies-Uniacke (10th), Tarryn Thomas (27th), Todd Goldstein (37th), Jy Simpkin (77th). With Harry Sheezel a curious 146th and Cam Zurhaar 162nd.
In a contract year can Thomas finally knuckle down and prove to the AFL world he is a top-20 AFL player, not a top-10 distraction to the club’s administration?
CAP SPACE FOR 2025
Truckloads. Millions. A war chest stacked upon another war chest.
The Roos are aware their mission by the end of 2024 has to be to build respect – and a vision of future success – so they don’t have to pay players like Griffin Logue and Zac Fisher insane amounts or five-year deals to get them to move.
The vision is clear, now it is all about execution.
TRADE TARGETS FOR 2025
The Roos will hope to sign up free agent Cam Zurhaar early so they can get on the warpath securing free agents without diluting compensation.
Here is the Hail Mary which won’t happen but the Roos can always dream about. Win seven games, show the improvement, then throw a stack at Tyson Stengle as a free agent.
Key backs will be a priority but as reported only the likes of Denver Grainger-Barras, Jack Henry, Josh Battle and Dougal Howard are out of contract as key defenders.
TRADE BAIT
Zurhaar and Thomas are the key pair, with the Roos to get to the end of the pre-season before talks but are aware both might let contract discussions drift into the season.
It is the 2024 litmus test – if the Roos can be competitive and show that vision for the future Thomas should stay on a lucrative deal but if they win three games again they don’t deserve to keep him.
Scott, Phillips, Powell and Greenwood are among others out of contract at the end of 2024.
Originally published as The List Manager: Jon Ralph runs the rule over North Melbourne’s current group, its future and everything in between
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