The List Manager: Jon Ralph runs the rule over Adelaide’s current group, its future and everything in between
The Crows currently have pick 10 in the draft, but come draft night it could be a different playing field, as they plot potential swaps with two teams picking higher on the board.
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“We wuz robbed” is no kind of summer mantra for a team striving for greatness.
Adelaide was done dirty by the AFL goal umpire in denying the Crows a finals berth in that shambles of a finish in round 23.
And yet internally Adelaide is aware that as much as it needed a period of mourning, crying over spilt milk across the summer would be the wrong play.
Adelaide had its chances in close games – a one-point loss to Collingwood, two points to Collingwood again, four points to Melbourne, six points to Brisbane, one point to Sydney.
And while the Ben Keays non-goal and a non-free kick to Jordan Dawson in one of those Pies losses stung, too often Adelaide just lacked some polish and class to close out games.
Fair enough given the Crows were the third-youngest team for games and age for much of the year.
So for Matthew Nicks (set to secure an off-season extension) the summer is about progress – not the rear-vision mirror.
He is aware there are a batch of hugely exciting players in this team but also some list holes that must be urgently filled.
TRADE PERIOD
Rating: 6/10
If Adelaide was a club desperate to win the flag next year the trade period would have been a dud.
But Adelaide knows exactly where it is at – steadily building, still 2-4 years from a flag window – so its moves help the club’s mission to keep accumulating talent.
Melbourne held Harrison Petty against his will but make no mistake the Crows will be waiting in 12 months.
He is desperate to come home, they are desperate to attain him.
From there, keeping Elliott Himmelberg for one final year and securing Gold Coast’s forward Burgess but repurposing him as defensive cover made sense given Petty could be at centre half back in round 1, 2025.
To secure end-of-first-round compo for Tom Doedee, who the Crows had offered a modest two-year deal, was a spectacular success.
The Crows got up the draft order to 14 – in the deal that secured Burgess – and they secured Melbourne’s future second-rounder for Shane McAdam.
So with 10, 14 and 20 the Crows can take a trio of kids or attempt to move up the draft order.
LIST HOLES
Adelaide finished the season in a vastly better state than it started the year, as Chayce Jones (pick 9), Wayne Milera (pick 11), Max Michalanney (pick 17), Luke Pedlar (pick 11) and Jake Soligo (pick 36) showed they are the future of this club.
Izak Rankine (36 goals) was spectacular in his first year as a Crow while Darcy Fogarty’s 34 goals in a good but not spectacular year showed the bar has been lifted.
Ditto for Josh Rachele, who still kicked 23 goals in 21 games but was overshadowed by Rankine.
Yet, what Adelaide knows is that Taylor Walker (76 goals) will be 34 in April so it must develop No. 2 pick Riley Thilthorpe to play alongside Fogarty.
Right now, he is a relentless hard worker who has the athletic gifts to play ruck and key forward.
But after one goal in his final six games (and 18 in 21 games) he is not yet the commanding pack mark and forward-line presence to build a team around.
The Crows will defend by committee.
Nick Murray (ACL) is out until mid-year, so a collection of the dependable Jordon Butts, exciting Josh Worrell, rarely used Himmelberg, swingman Burgess and Irishman Mark Keane will have to fill the key posts.
The half back line is more exciting – dasher Milera, rock-solid Michalanney, veteran Brodie Smith, rebounder Mitch Hinge can mix defence and attack after putting together two excellent years.
But rivals will see Adelaide’s defence as gettable until proven otherwise.
Likewise the Crows midfield lacks one absolute A-grader, as much as captain Jordan Dawson became a fully fledged elite talent, Soligo and Pedlar stepped up and Matt Crouch emerged as a late-season revelation.
The open question Adelaide is already considering – can Rankine be as damaging as Shai Bolton playing a 60-40 midfield-forward split as a game-breaking mid-forward?
DRAFT STRATEGY
The Crows have their eyes on Geelong and Essendon’s early picks, hoping to rise even further up the draft order.
Their current draft hand is 10, 14, 20 and 89.
Some clubs believe there are still 10 elite players in the draft but by the time the Crows take their current No.10 pick it will be pushed back to at least 12.
So could they offer up 14 and 20 to trade up to Geelong’s pick 8 or Essendon’s pick 9, ending up with a haul that in a best-case scenario would be picks 8 and 10?
Both Geelong and Essendon are open to draft-night trades and Adelaide clearly has the best hand of the clubs looking to secure one of those picks.
It would give Adelaide a chance at two of 193cm athletic forward Nate Caddy, elite running Murray Bushranger Darcy Wilson, 200cm Sandringham Dragons defender Ollie Murphy and 194cm defender Arie Schoenmaker.
Murphy would be a perfect fit given the Crows need multiple key backs rather than waiting for Petty as their saviour.
Given Shane McAdam is gone and free agent Himmelberg will get to the Giants as a free agent next year, a key forward in the draft wouldn’t go astray either.
But the Crows are backing in their defensive talls so a key forward is a more pressing priority.
WHO’S UNDER THE PUMP
Key talls take time.
Heaven forbid, but if Taylor Walker went down with a season-ending knee injury would either Fogarty or Thilthorpe be ready to step in his absence?
Fogarty has the talent to be a 50-goal forward after seasons of 24, 33 and 34 goals and at 24 the time is now.
Adelaide believes Thilthorpe is on track after 46 games in three years and 18, eight and 18 goals but the fourth year is a big one.
TRADE TARGETS FOR 2024
Harrison Petty wants to go home and Adelaide is desperate to acquire him.
The industry price is already established – Melbourne gave up two first-rounders and a fourth-rounder for Jake Lever and got back a second and third-rounder.
The Demons could hold him until his contract expires in 2025 but would likely secure only an end-of-first-round pick as compensation if the Crows’ five-year offer at $800,000 stands.
Adelaide would be smart to consider back-up options.
Denver Grainger-Barrass, Jack Henry, Adam Tomlinson, Aliir Aliir and Josh Battle are some of the few key defenders out of contract next year so the Crows must move heaven and earth to get Petty.
PREMIERSHIP WINDOW
Adelaide believed it was good enough to win the flag if it made finals last season but did have one of the top three youngest lists in the game in 2023.
So Matthew Nicks will talk tough about finals being a minimum next year, in reality aware the actual list demographic means the window will open in 2-3 years when Pedlar, Michalanney and co have 50 games under their belt.
CAP SPACE FOR 2025
The stars are well-paid but not ridiculously so – Jordan Dawson and Izak Rankine were both acquired for excellent but not crazy money.
Taylor Walker and Rory Sloane are paid well less than at their peak, so there is a war chest of cash.
It’s why the Crows had space to front-end $1.2 million of the Harry Petty deal. They will front-end other contracts instead and save for the next bid and increased contracts in coming years for the young guns.
AFL PLAYER RATINGS IN 2023 AND A 2024 BOLTER
PLAYERS WHO MADE THE TOP 100 IN THE AFL PLAYER RANKINGS IN 2023 AND A 2024 BOLTER
Jordan Dawson (22nd), Taylor Walker (28th), Reilly O’Brien (57th) and Izak Rankine (67th). Ben Keays was 102nd.
Can Mitch Hinge (151st) become the club’s 2024 breakout star?
TRADE BAIT
Elliot Himmelberg is keen to reunite with brother Harry at GWS, while Ben Keays is a free agent and Taylor Walker and Rory Sloane will hope to extend careers into 2025 form and injury-willing.
Hinge, Pedlar, Ned McHenry and Lachie Scholl are out of contract at the end of next year so the Crows will be keen to tuck away the first pair given their bright futures.
Originally published as The List Manager: Jon Ralph runs the rule over Adelaide’s current group, its future and everything in between
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