Analysis: The damning stats behind Adelaide’s winless start to the season and skipper’s troubles
Jordan Dawson has been one of the AFL’s best kicks in recent years but his disposal has dropped away sharply. Champion Data analysis shows where he and the Crows are struggling.
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Jordan Dawson’s suddenly shoddy disposal is symptomatic of Adelaide’s woes.
Dawson has been considered one of the AFL’s best kicks since arriving from Sydney ahead of the 2022 season.
But the Crows captain’s execution, like his team’s, has been erratic at times this year.
With Adelaide 0-3 going into its crunch Gather Round game against Melbourne, Champion Data shows Dawson has the fourth-worst kick rating in the league for 2024 at -15 per cent.
A player’s kick rating is the difference between their expected hit rate and how many actually reach the target.
Negative ones indicate a player is not executing as well as the competition average, while a positive rating shows they are better than the league standard.
Champion Data considers the amount of pressure a player is under and the difficulty of the kick, comparing it to the competition average across the past decade, to determine each one’s expected hit rate.
Last year the midfielder’s kick rating was +2 per cent, ranked 92nd of 359 players to qualify.
Dawson’s surprising disposal drop-off this season is also reflected in him ranking:
■ Second in the AFL for direct turnover kicks (10)
■ Equal-fifth for turnovers per game (6.3)
■ Equal-sixth for clangers per game (6)
■ 15th-worst for disposal efficiency for players to have featured in at least three matches (56 per cent, 335th of 349)
Although a very small sample size, Dawson’s disposal efficiency for 2024 has dipped from 71 per cent last year and 75 per cent in 2022.
So too has his kicking efficiency.
It is 49 per cent this campaign, down from 65 per cent and 75 per cent the past two years.
In Friday night’s loss to Fremantle in Perth, his disposal efficiency (48 per cent) was second-worst on field, ahead of another usually neat-kicking Crow, Taylor Walker (43 per cent).
Adelaide undoubtedly has much bigger problems right now than Dawson’s distribution.
And as a star of the competition, coming off consecutive top-two finishes in the club’s best-and-fairest, and 13th place in both the Brownlow Medal and coaches’ association award in 2023, you expect he will turn things around quickly.
But when the team’s best player and one of its most skilful is struggling to hit targets, it is clear there is a wider issue.
The Crows rank 18th for kick rating and field kick rating, 14th for shot at goal kick rating and have committed the sixth-most clanger kicks.
Star midfielder Rory Laird has the second-worst kick rating (-16 per cent) in the AFL, while Wayne Milera (-9 per cent) and Ben Keays (-9 per cent) are not far behind.
Dawson said his own form had mirrored the side’s.
“As a whole group we’re a bit inconsistent and need to get better in different areas,” Dawson said.
“For me, it’s probably trying to not overdo too much, keeping it simple and playing my role.
“Probably last week when the game was slipping a way a bit in the last quarter, you do try and do a bit too much.
“It is hard when you want your team to win and you try to do whatever you can, sometimes you can go a bit too far with trying to use the ball too much or whatever it might be.”
“Shape on the ground” has been a theme at West Lakes this week.
Seeking answers for their loss to the Dockers and why goals had dried after being the AFL’s highest scoring team last year, the Crows identified that their field positioning had been “very random at times”, making things unpredictable when players got the ball and hampering their “connection”.
“Obviously there’s some blame on my part in terms of executing the skills, but last year we knew exactly where everyone was on the field and we haven’t really had that the last couple of weeks,” Dawson said.
“It’s definitely a combination of a few things and we’ll be looking to tidy that up.”
A fortnight ago, Dawson polled three coaches votes in the home loss to Geelong.
He desperately tried to get his team over the line, laying the game’s most tackles (12) in what was a 19-point loss.
Dawson often starred last season against the best sides in Adelaide’s biggest games, resulting in his first All-Australian selection.
In a match the Crows badly need to win on Thursday night, you would back him to stand tall against the Demons.
The honeymoon period of his captaincy is over.
What Adelaide is facing now is a totally different challenge for the second-year captain.
“This is definitely the hardest time in these leadership roles, when you’re struggling as an individual or as a group, it’s how do you lean on the others to help you get out of it?,” Dawson said.
“We’ve been just trying to remain really positive as a group and trying to focus on what we can control.”
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