The Phantom’s Round 9 Review: The highs, lows and cashing in Reilly O’Brien
He scored another 88 points against the Lions but how long should we hold on to Reilly O’Brien for? In the Round 9 SuperCoach review, The Phantom looks at the highs, lows and cashing in.
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It’s 9pm on Sunday, June 16.
The Giants and Kangaroos have just wrapped up Round 13 and the SuperCoach lockout is over.
Reilly O’Brien reached three figures - covering for Brodie Grundy and Max Gawn who both have the bye - against the even-less-experienced Ivan Soldo against the Tigers to open the round two days earlier.
His price has reached $440k and with the Crows having the week off in Round 14 and Sam Jacobs due back the following round, SuperCoaches are cashing in.
In an ideal world, sure.
But we all know that scenario would be too good to be true.
After a score of 88 - his sixth score in excess of 84 this year - in the loss to the Lions on Saturday, O’Brien’s price increased by another $24k, to sit at $398k after seven games - and a competition-high price rise of $262k.
While he’s scored 84 or more in six of his seven games this season, that’s O’Brien’s breakeven mark in Round 10.
He should get it against an underwhelming West Coast ruck duo of Nathan Vardy and Tom Hickey but I’m not expecting another big jump.
If O’Brien scores 90 for the next three weeks, his price will rise another $27k to sit at $425k after the Round 12 clash with the Giants.
But with the 66-point performance in the Showdown still in his three-round rolling average for another week, it’s not going to take much for his price to be coming back the other way.
Especially with Melbourne and Max Gawn to come the following week.
The other - maybe more pressing - issue is the return of Jacobs who was listed as 1-2 weeks away on Adelaide’s injury list ahead of Round 9.
Given O’Brien’s impressive form and Jacobs’ extended stint on the sidelines, it’s likely the 198-game ruckman will need to come through the SANFL.
O’Brien has done more than enough to keep his spot but there’s little chance we see both big men in the same team.
Given Jacobs is still the No. 1, will O’Brien even still be there in Round 13?
In a similar story to Sam Walsh last week, is it time to cash in now at what is likely to be close to peak price?
There’s many that will hold and hope - there’s nothing wrong with that - but it might help you with the big upgrade that pushes an underperforming rookie to the bench or, better yet, out of your side.
And there were plenty of candidates this week.
Popular cash cows Noah Answerth (26), Michael Gibbons (28), Matthew Parker (30), Will Setterfield (29), Will Hayes (31) and Jordan Clark (33) all let SuperCoaches down in Round 9.
Trading O’Brien now also might help you jump on the Lachie Whitfield train before it takes off again.
The star Giant bounced back from a two-week injury layoff with a round-high 170 points, on the back of 40 disposals, 18 marks and three goals against the Blues.
Many hoped Whitfield would fall even further as a result of the injury-affected 45 in Round 6 and huge breakeven of 206.
But he almost got there and, although he lost $19k off his price, his breakeven is now back to a more manageable 117.
At the same price, Swan Jake Lloyd is also great buying this week after a season-high 141 points against the Kangaroos.
Lloyd is now available for $51k less than his starting price but a breakeven of 108 means he’s unlikely to be this cheap for long.
While we’re on defenders, Shannon Hurn must get a mention.
The West Coast skipper posted a huge 161 points on Friday night to take the No. 1 spot away from Lloyd after 10 rounds.
And he’s still only in 14 per cent of teams.
Only injury will stop those three finishing as the top-three defenders from here.
We can also now say with confidence Hurn’s teammate Elliot Yeo is well-and-truly back on track.
Yeo is almost back at this starting price after four consecutive SuperCoach tons, including a season-high 136 against the Demons in Round 9.
He’s only in 3.6 per cent of teams.
But if we’re having a point-of-difference competition, Mitch Duncan has to take the cake.
The Geelong midfielder is in just one per cent of all SuperCoach teams despite currently being ranked as the eighth-highest scoring midfielder in the competition.
Duncan’s three-round average of 131 is only matched by Giant Josh Kelly, who has scored at an average of 134 in his past three games.
Anyway, you see what I mean? There’s plenty you could do with O’Brien’s money given there’s no guarantee he’ll be there to help cover the absence of Grundy and Gawn in Round 13.
And mature-age Cat Darcy Fort, who posted a SuperCoach ton on debut, could be on the bubble the week O’Brien heads north to take on Gawn.
Once you’ve decided to make the move, the question becomes which way do you go.
But more on that later.
The Phantom’s Round 9
Score: 2375
Overall ranking: 1395
Studs: Lachie Whitfield (170), Tim Taranto (144), Max Gawn (144), Brodie Grundy (144), Jake Lloyd (141), Nic Newman 118
Duds: Noah Answerth (26), Michael Gibbons (28)
Originally published as The Phantom’s Round 9 Review: The highs, lows and cashing in Reilly O’Brien
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