Kick-in rules are set to impact SuperCoach in more ways than one
New rules give a SuperCoach boost for players who take kick-ins from behinds. But they aren’t the only ones set to benefit. Champion Data’s SuperCoach expert Fantasy Freako names the players to watch.
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New kick-in rules are one of the most discussed changes to the game in 2019 with their potential SuperCoach impact a major talking point.
Identifying likely kick-in players is obviously important, but looking at the kick in result, or the actual kick-in target can be just as useful from a SuperCoach point of view.
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With the player on the mark now 10m back from the top of the goalsquare after a kick in, there could be more space in the defensive zone for players who work hard and present as the kick-in target. This could potentially result in more uncontested marks should the team decide to take the short option.
If we analyse teams based on taking the short option from a kick-in last season, it was Fremantle and Sydney (57 per cent) that had the highest rates for effective short kicks, with Adelaide (50 per cent) next highest. At the other end, Western Bulldogs were the most direct team when bringing the ball back into play, with their rate of 27 per cent short kicks 5 per cent lower than any other side.
The short lateral kick-in to an open target is often an easy out for a team that decide to maintain possession, with the alternative being to kick long to a contest where the ball can be turned over. Richmond took this option more than any other team (21 per cent), with Fremantle (18 per cent) and Sydney (15 per cent) next highest.
West Coast took the lateral option the least of any side (2 per cent), which makes sense given Shannon Hurn kicked in to himself more than any other player in the AFL.
2018 KICK-IN TARGETS
Reviewing numbers from the 2018 season, Dayne Rampe was the target from 30 kick-ins – nine more than Joel Hamling. There were a host of other players on 20 including Michael Hurley, Aliir Aliir and Jesse Joyce. The most relevant from a SuperCoach point of view was Rory Laird, who was the target 19 times, while Jake Lloyd presented 17 times which is impressive considering he took the most kick-ins of any player in the league. So if he wasn’t taking the kick-in, he was presenting as an option to receive the ball instead. That’s gold!
Michael Hibberd (16) and Alex Witherden (14) also deserve a mention.
2016-18 KICK-IN TARGETS
If we broaden the sample size to the past three home-and-away seasons, Laird has been the target from 72 kick-ins – 12 more than Rampe. If you weren’t sold on Laird as a SuperCoach selection previously, then this should seal the deal.
Lloyd also ranks high in this measure and has been targeted 41 times, while Lachie Whitfield isn’t too far behind with 34. Whitefield can only be selected as a defender this season after playing 70 per cent of game time in defence in 2018 in the absence of the injured Zac Williams.
However, once Williams returned for the finals series, Whitfield went back to his customary position on the wing, spending just 10 per cent of game time in defence across both finals.
WHAT WE’VE SEEN SO FAR
Not every team will defend space the same way from kick-ins, which makes the pre-season even more important when analysing team structures and defences ahead of the season proper.
The all-important JLT Community Series has kicked off and this provides us with valuable numbers to look at. When analysing kick-in data we have to be mindful how many kick ins a team actually has. In week one, both Melbourne and West Coast had 17 kick-ins apiece, while Adelaide and Richmond only had five.
Overall in the first week, the kick-in player chose to play on 62 per cent of the time, which is more than double the 2018 competition average (25 per cent).
Both Carlton and Richmond played on 100 per cent of the time, while Sydney played on the least — just three times from nine kick-ins.
Looking at individuals, Lewis Jetta had the most kick-ins of any player (nine), with new Sun Jordan Murdoch not far behind with seven. The two players with six kick ins are perhaps the most relevant in SuperCoach, with Shannon Hurn and Demon rookie Marty Hore both impressing. In the case of Hore, he played on from five kick-ins to further add to his appeal.
Popular SuperCoach pick Jake Lloyd failed to play-on from both his kick ins, while the underpriced Zac Williams and Brodie Smith both played on from both of theirs Breakout contender Alex Witherden also played on from his two kick-ins.
Below is a breakdown of the leading kick in players across the weekend:
Originally published as Kick-in rules are set to impact SuperCoach in more ways than one
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