KFC SuperCoach: The Investor and The Phantom look at the big issues for Round 18
For KFC SuperCoaches, the elephant in the room is lack of trades. So what is the best strategy with six rounds still to go? Investor Dan Begala explains his plan.
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The curtains have closed on a monumental round of KFC SuperCoach that saw most coaches, including yours truly, register their highest dividend yields of FY21.
The market was brimming with positive sentiment from the get-go with a swathe of popular blue chip stocks generating dividends well in excess of their season-long averages.
The theme of Round 17, you ask?
Outperformance.
Although the market was awash with euphoria we were, however, reminded of the paramount importance of retaining an appropriate trade buffer, or, repertoire for the final stanza of FY21.
The KFC SuperCoach Investor, Daniel Begala, navigates the key investment thematic plaguing the minds of coaches as we embark towards the most exciting, yet, tumultuous period of the AFL season.
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THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM: TRADES
The main issue impacting coaches alike – if you’ve had your head in the sand – is the scarcity of trades, or, lack thereof when it matters most.
The KFC SuperCoach Investor, Daniel Begala, currently boasts a fully-fledged line-up of premium assets across each and every line of his portfolio.
The only concern, however, is that his trade repertoire is limited to two injury. or form-related. trades at the business end of proceedings.
Let me remind you, folks, there are still six – yes, six – rounds of football to navigate and that can feel like an eternity if you’ve exhausted all of your trades.
In Round 18 alone, we saw injuries to popular players including Changkuoth Jiath (season-over), Kyle Langford (hamstring) and perennial blue chipper, Lachie Whitfield, who succumbed to an innocuous concussion incident and will miss – at a minimum – Round 18.
You can all-but guarantee, investors, that your portfolio will be impacted by an injury prior to season’s end so it’s integral that you set, or better yet, manage your own expectations.
TRADE GUIDE: ALL THE BEST OPTIONS AHEAD OF ROUND 18
The KFC SuperCoach Investor, despite the allure of Brodie Grundy at R2, opted for Rowan Marshall to fill the void for the sole purpose of retaining an extra trade (2) and these are the types of decisions coaches will need to implement as dusk begins to settle on FY21.
What do we call this, folks?
Sacrifice.
My portfolio will ultimately underperform by 25-30 points per week in the ruck alone, however, the comfort of an additional trade, and the flexibility this offers, suited the inherent conservatism of this particular investor.
Just imagine – hypothetically – if Max Gawn or any other blue chip asset was rested, injured or missed, and you had no coverage or a trade to address the sudden absence.
Now extrapolate this absence over two, three and four weeks.
The impact of a trading halt can be catastrophic and undo all of your meticulous work if you end up foregoing 100 additional points per week.
The ultimate decision, folks, is how you choose to balance the relentless pursuit for rankings and the honour that ensues with league victory and success.
Choose your own adventure, investors, and stay the course.
DEPTH CHARTS
The depth of your bench coverage will be the most influential assets within your portfolio mix between now and season’s end.
Mark. The. Investors. Words.
As they say in AFL terms, your team is only as strong as your bottom four-to-six players and the clubs with high-performing state-league programs typically perform best at the business end of the year.
What’s the essential ingredient?
Depth.
If you’ve thrown caution to the wind and traded your way – aggressively – towards a robust blue chip portfolio, you will certainly be running the trade and injury gauntlet.
Most coaches that win the ultimate prize, $50K, have exhausted their trade allocation not long after the byes as they place their faith in the twenty-two blue chip assets until season’s end.
It’s not for the faint-hearted, though, as the futility of being unable to trade an injured star in the run home is possibly one of the most underwhelming sensations you can have in our great game.
But let’s not focus on the negatives, folks, as the euphoria of a successful season bookended by rankings or league success far outweighs the risk of your portfolio imploding as your trades dwindle, or, exhaust.
The tip for mitigating any of these issues arising is to ensure you place the upmost emphasis on bench depth with dual-position flexibility the preferred default position of the KFC SuperCoach Investor.
At this moment, players such as Lachlan Bramble (MID), Trent Bianco (MID/DEF), Thomas Highmore (DEF) and Cody Weightman (FWD) reflect ideal coverage for the run home.
They’re not your first-line selections, but they’re all capable of a decent score when, or if, called upon in the absence of a blue chip stock.
Most importantly, they’re being picked.
Exhibit A: Bramble - 120 KFC SuperCoach points in Round 17.
The Begala Brigade, however, has a gaping hole at F7 (Kieran Briggs) that could prove to be a scoring sieve if called into ‘action’ given he looks unlikely to be selected soon, after being overlooked in favour of Matt Flynn for Round 18.
Enter the two trades held aside for a “rainy” KFC SuperCoach day.
It is essential, folks, that you retain and nurture as much of your bench squadron as possible as in all likelihood, many will be summonsed for scoring duty should an injury crisis bestow your portfolio.
They’re not steak knives, investors, but can sometimes be the barometer of your side, league and rankings success.
Don’t be sleeping on your bench, folks.
THE PHANTOM’S BURNING QUESTIONS
Another round, another KFC SuperCoach injury.
Yes, listening to me saying ‘anything can, and will, happen in the run home’ over again may be annoying, but do you now know why I continue to say it?
That’s rhetorical, not burning.
Is Lachie Whitfield going to play?
The star Giant was subbed out of the Round 17 clash with the Suns at half-time and was diagnosed with concussion on Monday, meaning he won’t be able to play for 12 days under the mandatory protocols.
He won’t play in the Sydney Derby in Round 18, and 12 days from Monday is the Friday of Round 19 – fortunately for owners, the Giants-Bombers fixture has been locked in for the Saturday twilight slot, so he should miss just the one week.
So, do I trade him?
If – and it is possible given his history with migraines – Whitfield misses two matches, it means he’s out for a third of the season from his point.
On that percentage, you could make an argument for trading – but only if you have five trades or more remaining.
Yes, those KFC SuperCoaches do exist.
But, if you’re not one of them, and have the cover on the bench, hold him for now.
I am one of those KFC SuperCoaches, who should I trade him to?
Geelong’s Tom Stewart, the third-ranked defender behind Rory Laird and Callum Mills, is only $30k away, while Bomber Jordan Ridley, who has now posted four consecutive KFC SuperCoach tons, will cost you even less.
If you don’t have cash in the bank, Tiger Jayden Short, who has reached three figures in three of his past four matches, is available for $482k, while Nic Newman – in a Blues defence missing Sam Docherty – is still good buying at $444k.
Interesting…I’m down to 2 trade, shou …
I’ll cut you off - no.
Unless, maybe, you are in the top 20 overall and want to have one last crack.
If you are, though, you have probably stopped listening to me.
What about Kyle Langford?
Hamstring tightness was the word out of the Bombers on Friday night, after the midfielder was subbed out against the Crows.
Unless he has hamstrings like Sean Darcy – who missed three days earlier this season – it could mean at least one week on the sidelines.
And, let’s face it, no one has hamstrings like the big fella.
Back-to-back scores of 180 or more, boy, oh, boy, wowee.
Forget R2 next year, he’s going straight to the top – well on price, anyway.
Sorry, I got sidetracked.
Calm down, Phant. Am I trading Langford?
The Bombers on Tuesday night that Langford, in fact, does have a hamstring strain and that they hope to get him back “in a few weeks”.
That’s a definite two, likely three, meaning he falls into trade territory.
What about Changkuouth Jiath?
More than 28,000 KFC SuperCoaches still own the emerging Hawthorn star – and yes, I am one of them.
Jiath, who was the star of the first two and a half quarters for the Hawks on Saturday, hurt his knee late in the third term and was subbed out of the game at the final change.
And, unfortunately, the short-term outlook isn’t good for owners.
“CJ has got some form of PCL injury, so he is unlikely to play for some time,” coach Alastair Clarkson said post-match.
“We’ll probably take a conservative approach with him and with only six weeks it will probably mean that it would be doubtful he gets back for this year.”
This is a definite trade.
But, despite his 94 points in just 58 per cent game-time, Jiath’s price tag of $406k makes it a difficult one.
If I’ve got three trades left, and no cash, can I afford to use two to move on Jiath for a big name?
Now that is a good question.
It is, in fact, my question and, yes, I’ve reverted to complimenting myself – it’s been a long year.
I love the idea of swinging Rory Laird back to defence and upgrading Jiath to Clayton Oliver. It makes my on-field team look pretty bloody good.
But, given I would need to make an extra downgrade, that would leave me with one trade and take away my swing defensive cover in Laird.
So, I’m going to go after the value. And I can’t afford any of the players mentioned above - if I could get to Newman, you know I would.
But I think there’s enough to like in Giant Nick Haynes to just use the one trade.
The $431k defender has posted scores of 118, 96, 94, 87 and 86 since the bye, after resuming the KFC SuperCoach-friendly floating tall role in the Giants’ defence - similar to the one that saw him average 106 points per game in the first 16 rounds last year.
After taking just 10 intercept marks to Round 11 this season, Haynes has recorded 23 in the past five matches.
His total intercept possessions have increased, too, with the 29-year-old tallying 55 – 15 last week against the Suns – since Round 11.
You may not have Jiath, but this type of thinking is something to keep in mind if an injury pops up elsewhere in your side.
I need to find that value option at the other end, should I consider Jordan De Goey?
You should’ve last week.
But his 29-disposal, 124-point performance against the Tigers is official confirmation.
After equalling his career-high disposal tally in each of his previous two matches - and with his midfield percentage through the roof - De Goey’s positional shift, with Jamie Elliot back in the forward line, was clear.
Now, it’s hard to overlook.
The 25-year-old had 12 contested possessions, eight score involvements – including one goal and two direct assists – and nine groundball-gets to go with his 29 disposals on Sunday.
A great F6 option to finish your forward line.
Would you pick him over Rowan Marshall?
Another good question.
For $438k, if you have a ruck-forward swing at R3, then Marshall is your man.
His game-time increased slightly – up from 65 to 71 per cent – against the Lions, and he knocked out another solid score of 95 as he continues to build after returning from injury.
The Saints play the Power this week, a side Marshall has scored 160 and 139 against in the past two.
I’m playing for league glory and I have 7 trades left, would you trade Max Gawn for Darcy, Phant?
Very specific, but yes, it could be the move that brings you KFC SuperCoach premiership glory.
What about Josh Dunkley?
He’s back - that’s the good news.
“Josh’s rehabilitation following his shoulder reconstruction has gone fantastically well,” Bulldogs head of sports medicine Chris Bell told the club’s website on Tuesday.
“He has been back into full training for the last couple of weeks and hasn’t missed a beat.
“He will be looking to put his hand up for selection this weekend.”
But the big question is, at $634k, how do you get there?
The other problem is, after scores of 113, 132, 132, 117, 148 and 132 before his time on the sidelines, Dunkley has a breakeven of 94.
The only thing is when the star midfielder returned from injury last year, he failed to reach three figures in the first three matches. That was an ankle, injury, though - he’s been running after shoulder surgery.
Might be one for those 7-trade KFC SuperCoaches - for now, anyway.
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Originally published as KFC SuperCoach: The Investor and The Phantom look at the big issues for Round 18
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