KFC SuperCoach 2020: The Phantom’s Round 9 review and Round 10 trade advice
Is Dusty a top-six forward? What about Sam Docherty in defence? Can you pick Sam Draper at R2? And how long should you wait on Max Gawn? The Phantom answers the big KFC SuperCoach questions ahead of Round 10.
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The first bounce on Wednesday night confirmed what every KFC SuperCoach has been fearing — the 20-day footy frenzy will be chaos.
And with only 24 hours between the end of Round 9 and the start of Round 10, KFC SuperCoaches will have little time to deal with a number big issues.
As the round continues to unfold, The Phantom will do his best to help.
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Is Dusty a top-six forward?
If his Round 9 performance against the Bulldogs and three-round average of 131 is any indication, the answer is an overwhelming yes. Sure, the average is largely on the back of Martin’s 184 points on Thursday night but it capped off a strong three-week block after the Brownlow Medallist was quiet between Rounds 3 and 6, posting three scores of 81 or less. Some KFC SuperCoaches saw enough in Martin’s two SuperCoach tons and jumped on at $466k before Thursday, in what could be their move of the season. But $517k is still great buying ahead of Round 10. Martin posted season-highs for disposals (26) and score involvements (9) and equal-season-highs for inside-50s (8) and contested possessions (14). Is there six other forwards who can outscore him from here? I wouldn’t bet on it. The only concern is whether or not he reverts to the early-season role inside-50 when the cavalry returns.
What about Sam Docherty in defence?
After scoring 185 points against the Bombers and averaging 129 points per game in the opening four rounds, the early question was who was going to catch Docherty in defence? Now, five matches later, he’s struggling to keep up. The 26-year-old, who has failed to deal with some heavy opposition attention, has not scored than 91 since his huge score in Round 4. Docherty’s five-round average of 77 puts him nowhere near the top-six defenders, and with the Blues’ Round 10 bye, the case to trade him out is a reasonable one. But the rest may do him some good, given how much footy he’s missed. Deal with your on-field rookies first.
And Jy Simpkin?
Like Docherty, it’s hard to say yes on his past three peformances. After averaging 120 points in the opening six rounds, North’s breakout star was injured against the Tigers in Round 7, limping to 57 points. Then, after a limited week on the track, struggled with heavy attention from Carlton’s Ed Curnow in Round 8. The tag from Crow Ben Keays wasn’t as tight on Saturday but, again, Simpkin struggled with his ball-use with the 22-year-old hitting the target with just one of his first eight disposals. In his first six matches of the year, Simpkin operated at 65 per cent or better in all-but one of them. In the past three matches, he’s finished with a disposal effiency of 57%, 54% and 41% respectively. But with Geelong, Melbourne and Brisbane - teams who have opted against tagging this season - in the next three rounds, he should get more space. Even if he’s only on the fringe of the top-six from here, $400k, which is what his price tag may be following Round 10, is outrageous value.
Is Jack Macrae a must-have?
On scoring power in his current form, which is reminiscent of what we’ve seen in the past two years, it’s a yes. But in the current KFC SuperCoach season at $650k, I wouldn’t say he’s must-have. If you’ve got the cash, and the rest of your side is in good shape, he’s a great inclusion - it goes without saying. But with Carlton skipper Patrick Cripps, Port’s Travis Boak, Cat Mitch Duncan and Hawk Tom Mitchell available at significantly discounted prices over the next few rounds, the value route is a good one.
So, Cripps or Mitchell?
Insert Mexican footy commercial here. On Friday afternoon in Perth, both KFC SuperCoach stars bounced back into serious form. After four scores of 85 or less in the previous five matches – which resulted in a staggering price drop of more than $150k – Cripps finally bounced back, finishing with 27 disposals, 19 contested possessions, eight clearances and a season-high 149 points. Mitchell’s form hasn’t dipped as low as Cripps’ this year but scores of 104 and 83 in the past two weeks aren’t what we’ve come to expect from the ball magnet. But he, too, posted a season-high in Round 9, recording 164 points, on the back of 28 disposals – 22 of them effective – eight tackles, five clearances and five inside 50s. Both are great value given their scoring history and starting price but at less than $490k, Cripps is the one who you should be targeting first, following the Round 10 bye.
Round 9 #supercoach Price Projection* - Patrick Cripps
— Brice Mitchell (@bricemitchell) July 31, 2020
StartPrice $636k
R9Price $478k
2020Scores 112/117/123/81/116/56/85/75
R9BE 126
R9Score 144* pre-scale
R9:$478k->$486k
NewBE 73
ProjScore 101
R10:BYE
R11:$486k->$499k ($12k) NewBE 56
R12:$499k->$519k ($20k) NewBE 112
*approx https://t.co/t7G2zIX0Yk
And stand up he does! It was a trademark captain's game from Patrick Cripps:
— Fantasy Freako (@FantasyFreako) July 31, 2020
27 disposals
19 contested possessions
13 first possessions
8 clearances
1 goal
149 #SuperCoach points#AFLBluesHawks
Is Sam Draper the real deal?
It may be a little early to make the ‘real deal’ call as a player but the 21-year-old did enough on debut to confirm his status as a great KFC SuperCoach rookie target ahead of Round 10. The 205cm Draper, who posted scores of 194 and 182 in the VFL last year before an ACL injury in May, finished with 73 points against the Lions, impressing in the ruck and in the air, with his big mark in the third quarter almost the highlight of the night for the Bombers. The only thing which may stop him leading Essendon’s ruck brigade for the for the rest of the season is any soreness which may arise given his time out of the game through injury.
5 hitouts-to-advantage and 34 #SuperCoach points in the second term for Sam Draper. #AFLDonsLions
— Fantasy Freako (@FantasyFreako) July 31, 2020
What about at R2?
If you’ve got Tim English – like The Phantom – or Marc Pittonet at R2, then the thought would’ve already crossed your mind. And with Max Gawn’s price set to drop over the next two rounds, it may be worth considering further. The $470k will allow you to make two immediate upgrade before Monday’s lockout but it would be a big move to show so much faith in a one-game ruckman. It’s more for the KFC SuperCoach teams struggling to climb the ranks. Think of it as your Hail Mary play.
How long should non-owners wait on Max Gawn?
A season-low 87 points against the Power will see Gawn lose $20k off his huge price tag following Round 9. But the big fall is yet to come. Price projection guru Brice Mitchell tells me with a new breakeven of approximately 218, even if Gawn averages 130 in his next three matches - Reilly O’Brien (Adelaide), Todd Goldstein (North Melbourne) and Brodie Grundy (Collingwood) - he will be available for less than $680k ahead of Round 13. So, non-owners, it’s time to re-adjust your plans.
Round 9 #supercoach Price Projection* Scenarios - Max Gawn
— Brice Mitchell (@bricemitchell) July 31, 2020
R10Price $771k*
R10BE 218
R10 AD-AO
R11 NM-AO
R12 CO-Gab
145/130/115 | $771k->$738k->$701k->$686k
145 | $771k->$738k->$708k->$711k
130 | $771k->$731k->$689k->$678k
115 | $771k->$724k->$671k->$644k
*approx https://t.co/pwox4BJSt1
Alex Witherden, is he back?
Why did it take him so long to get back into the senior side? That’s the question I’d like answered. In his first game since Round 1, the 21-year-old tallied 25 disposals – 21 of them effective – seven rebound-50s, eight intercepts and a game-high 170 points. He’s back, alright, and don’t think it’s one out of the blue either. The skilful right-footer scored 85 KFC SuperCoach points or more in 16 of his first 30 career matches. And his precise ball-use and intercept ability will continue to be rewarded in KFC SuperCoach in a shortened season. Let’s just hope coach Chris Fagan was convinced. Given his 41-point score in the opening round, it will only be a minimal price rise despite the huge Round 9 score. That means there will still be value in his selection over the next two rounds so keep him in mind. I certainly will be.
Round 9 #supercoach Price Projection* - Tim English
— Brice Mitchell (@bricemitchell) July 30, 2020
StartPrice $448k
R7Score 204
R8Price $600k
R8Score 73
R9Price $610k
R9BE 88
R9Score 50
R10Price $593k ($-17k)
NewBE 233
ProjScore 106
R10(PA):$593k->$536k ($-57k) NewBE 167
R11(BL):$536k->$509k ($-27k) NewBE 95
*approx https://t.co/Gqr9YegrDQ
MORE KFC SUPERCOACH ADVICE:
Champion Data examines the key KFC SuperCoach stats ahead of Round 9
KFC SuperCoach: Trade targets, rookie options and everything you need to know for rounds 10-12
Originally published as KFC SuperCoach 2020: The Phantom’s Round 9 review and Round 10 trade advice
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