KFC SuperCoach Rookie Bible: Which cheapies to buy, hold and sell for Round 3

The 2021 KFC SuperCoach rookie crop is top notch, but some popular cheapies have underperformed. See who you need to move on and the best replacements.

The rookie doomsayers of the pre-season are eating their words.

Six KFC SuperCoach rookies are averaging above 80 points across the opening two rounds, with super Swan Errol Gulden top of the tree with a jaw-dropping 137.5 point average.

If he continues on this trajectory, Gulden will appreciate a whopping $150,000 in Round 3 and challenge Michael Barlow as the greatest rookie of all time (GROAT).

Granted, several popular rookies have failed to fire, but the top end of this rookie crop should net us stacks of cash.

Rookies are vital for increasing our team value so that we can reach the KFC SuperCoach utopia: a full premium side.

Player values in SuperCoach rise and fall in price after their third game, with their “break even” representing the score they need to maintain their current price.

For rookies, the lower the break even, the more their price will skyrocket (break evens for every player are available in SuperCoach Plus).

Coaches would have most of the must-have cheapies entering Round 3 price changes, but there is every chance you missed one or two – and that’s OK.

The rookies were tough to predict off one official practice game this year and rookie corrections are part and parcel of Round 3 trading.

Check out the cheapies to buy, trade and hold ahead of Round 3.

TRADE GUIDE: WHAT TO DO WITH NEALE, CRIPPS

Hawthorn youngster Tyler Brockman has kicked four goals in his first two games.

THE MUST-HAVES

(in order of priority)

1. Errol Gulden (Syd) $117,300

Average: 137.5, Break Even: -206

2. Matthew Flynn (GWS) $123,900 RUC

Average: 109, Break Even: -145

3. Tom Highmore (STK) $117,300 DEF

Average: 68.5, Break Even: -68

4. Braeden Campbell (Syd) 189,300 FWD/MID

Average: 87, Break Even: -63

5. Chad Warner (Syd) $144,000 FWD

Average: 82, Break Even: -80

6. James Jordon (Melb) $123,900 MID

Average: 80 Break Even: -87

7. Jarman Impey (Haw) $212,800 FWD

Average: 94, Break Even: -62

8. James Rowe (Adel) $117,300 FWD

Average: 62.5, Break Even: -54

It goes without saying that Gulden and Flynn will be paramount for SuperCoach success, both boasting staggeringly low break evens.

Highmore is high on the list as the only rookie defender averaging above 46, making him an absolute must-have for backline cash generation.

A forward-mid in KFC SuperCoach, Campbell’s friendly role as a backline distributor gives him the potential to pump out big scores — as he did on the weekend with 118 from 25 disposals (including 21 kicks) — and he shapes as an on-field lock.

Errol Gulden is one of the form players of the competition in 2021.

His teammate Warner has spent an encouraging amount of time in the midfield for the Swans — as has Jordon for the Demons.

Jordon’s tackling was a feature on Saturday night, laying nine on his way to 82 points from just 65 per cent time on ground, and his job security is growing by the week.

Impey was the cheapie that jumped out this weekend with a 123-point return against the reigning premiers. He is more expensive than other rookies, but his role as a running defender will ensure he produces consistent on-field scores while rising in price – and an injury to fellow playmaker Will Day could boost his stocks further.

The final must-have is Rowe, who has rock-solid job security despite his stinker in Round 2. His rollercoaster scores to date make him difficult to trust on your field, but his ceiling and his mature-age body mean he should be in your side.

BUY

Sam Berry (Adel) $117,300 MID

Average: 64, Break Even: -59

Tom Powell (NM) $153,300 MID

Average: 64 Break Even: -38

Logan McDonald (Syd) $193,800 FWD

Average: 78.5, Break Even: -43

Lloyd Meek (Frem) $123,900 RUC

Average: 62.5, Break Even: -52

Lachie Young (NM) $202,000 DEF

Average: 65.5, Break Even: -33

Tyler Brockman $117,300 FWD/MD

Average: 49.5 Break Even: -30

Berry has already proved he is a tackling machine, laying 17 in his first two games. He could have posted a much bigger score than 69 on Saturday if he kicked straight – finishing with an inaccurate 0.4 – and is a chance to hold his spot once Matt Crouch returns to the Crows side.

We expected Powell to be a solid scorer based off his ball-winning as a junior, but Roos recruit Young’s start to the year comes as a surprise.

He appears to be playing a friendly role and with the ball set to live in North Melbourne’s defence for most of the season, he looms as a reasonable pick-up as an expensive rookie. Although you might be better served forking out the extra cash for mid-pricers Changkouth Jiath and Isaac Cumming.

Sam Berry is making it very difficult for Matthew Nicks to leave him out of the Crows side.

McDonald has also exceeded expectations, defying the age-old SuperCoach rule about rookie key forwards. The top-five selection has a great tank and is worth serious consideration if you are looking for a point-of-difference cheapie.

I had concerns around Meek’s job security with Sean Darcy on the periphery, but Dockers coach Justin Longmuir played them both in the same side on Sunday.

Fremantle’s key-position injury crisis appears set to work in Meek’s favour and he is the next best rookie ruckman behind Flynn.

Exciting Hawk Brockman (78 in Round 2) has booted four goals in his first two matches and looks to have a permanent spot with the spark he provides. His dual-position status is a bonus.

HOLD

Jacob Koschitzke (Haw) $117,300

Average: 45.5 Break Even: -18

Harry Sharp (Bris) $117,300 DEF/MID

Average: 35.5 Break Even: -2

Miles Bergman (PA) $123,900 FWD

Average: 44.5 Break Even: -16

Anthony Scott (WB) $102,400 FWD/MID

Average: 39.5 Break Even: -19

Lachie McNeil (WB) $102,400 MID)

Average: 40.5 Break Even: -21

Tom Fullarton $128,900 FWD/RUC

Average: 36.5 Break Even: 3

Charlie Lazzaro (NM) $117,300 MID

Average: 56, Break Even: 13

In an ordinary year, Sharp and Koschitzke would be corrective trades to another cheap defender. Unfortunately, the cupboard is bare in defence, and we will be forced to hold them until a promising rookie backman comes around.

Sharp failed to keep his spot in the Lions line-up after managing just four disposals and 20 points against the Cats, while Koschitzke, who booted his first AFL goal in Round 2, has moderate job security.

The Lions youngster is worth holding despite being axed, and can be traded to a rookie defender once they emerge.

Bergman had a much more encouraging outing on the weekend than in his debut, scoring 58 points.

Same goes for McNeil (55), but fellow mature-age Dog Scott (23) didn’t fare so well despite looking comfortable in Round 1.

Port Adelaide youngster Miles Bergman gets some tips from Michael Voss.

Experienced defender Jason Johannisen was named as the substitute for the Bulldogs and could be called upon to replace Scott.

Scott is a low-end hold for that reason, but even if he is dropped, his dual-position status could help you navigate the rookie roulette as a loophole option.

You would be forgiven for losing patience with Lazzaro and Fullarton, however, both have some upside.

Lazzaro scored 53 points in his second game, which is a better reflection of his scoring than his measly score of three as the medical substitute in Round 1, when the Roo came on in the final quarter.

An injury to Lions ruckman Oscar McInerney will give Fullarton an enhanced ruck role, which should improve his scoring output. But if he is your only way to get to a must-have rookie, trade away.

TRADE/AVOID

1. Paul Hunter $102,400 RUCK

Average: 39.5, Break Even: -19

Trade to: Flynn or Meek if you already own Flynn.

2. Paddy Dow $202,400 FWD/MID

Average: 56.5, Break Even: 6

Trade to: Campbell or Impey

3. Ned Cahill (ESS) $161,200 FWD

Average: 26, Break Even: 42

Trade to: Campbell, Warner or Impey

4. Harry Jones (ESS) $123,900 FWD

Average: 26.5, Break Even: 28

Trade to: Campbell or Warner

5. Oliver Henry (Coll) $135,300 FWD

Average: 9 (one game)

Trade to: Campbell or Warner

6. Nik Cox (ESS) $175,800 DEF/FWD

Average: 38, Break Even: 28

Trade to: Highmore, Young or a mid-pricer

7. Tanner Bruhn (GWS) $157,800 – 48 points

Average: 32, Break Even: 12

Trade to: Gulden, Jordon, Berry

Hunter is the No.1 rookie to sell before price changes because of the other quality rookie ruck options available.

St Kilda’s ruck replacement has been underwhelming with scores of 44 and 35 in his first two matches.

While the 28-year-old will hold his spot for a few more weeks until Rowan Marshall or Paddy Ryder return, bringing in Flynn – or Meek if you are running with Flynn on-field – will make you a lot more cash.

Dow is in a similar boat, with several forwards having greater appeal. The Blues midfielder hasn’t lived up to the pre-season hype and his low time-on-ground has hurt his overall output.

The 21-year-old’s scoring could be improved by injuries to forwards Jack Martin and Zach Fisher with more time on field.

However, moving on for the forward rookie you have missed looks to be the best bet.

Paddy Dow hasn’t been able to back up a big pre-season. Picture: Patrick Woods / Sunshine Coast Daily

Essendon’s trio of cheapies have struggled in the first two rounds and need to be moved on by coaches.

Jones is in for a difficult year as a key forward in a side likely to finish in the bottom-four and his five-point total against the Power suggests he might fail to pass his 20 Break Even.

Cox, a raw 199cm wingman, has been a better scorer than Jones, but he hasn’t justified his elevated rookie price, and neither has Giants first-round pick Tanner Bruhn while playing as a small forward.

If you didn’t sell Henry out last round, trade him to the best forward rookie you don’t currently own.

WATCH

Francis Evans (Geel) $123,900 FWD

R2 score: 54

Heath Chapman (Frem) $148,800 DEF

R2 score: 42

Nick Murray (Adel) $102,400 DEF

R2 score: 42

Jamaine Jones (WCE) $182,400 FWD

R2 score: 68

Josh Treacy (Frem) $102,400 RUC

Luke Parks (Carl)

Coaches were hoping for more from Chapman and Murray to shore up our rookie stocks in defence.

Both are worth a look if they can hold their spots next week, particularly Chapman, who looks to have better job security than Murray.

Jones kicked a crucial goal at the death against the Bulldogs and finished with 68 points, but is probably too expensive for a small forward.

Dockers rookie Treacy, a popular pick until he was suspended in a WAFL practice match on the eve of the season, is poised to debut this weekend. Treacy finished with a seven-goal haul in a recent practice match.

Evans bobbed up with two goals on debut for the Cats and is another to keep tabs on in Round 3.

FANTASY FREAKO’S ROOKIE TAKE

Sydney’s quarter of rookies backed it up again in Round 2. Errol Gulden (136), Braeden Campbell (118) Chad Warner (94) and Logan McDonald (69) all shone against Adelaide and are all set for huge price windfalls after their next match. If you don’t own any of the aforementioned players, then you need to put them atop of you trade list ahead of Round 3.

Gulden has exceeded all expectations and has been involved in 20 scoring chains – ranked equal-fifth in the competition. Warner isn’t too far behind with 19 score involvements – ranked equal-seventh.

Gulden has done most of his work inside the forward 50 and ranks equal-first at Sydney for disposals (14) and groundball-gets (6) in that zone and second overall for scoreboard impact (58 points). He also boasts the lowest breakeven score (-206) of any player and could potentially make as much as $380,000 after his price matures. If you’re not one of the 68.7% of SuperCoaches that own Gulden, then you need to address that this week.

The Swans face a sterner test this week against the Tigers, but the kids have shown enough in their two games that they won’t be taking a backward step against the reigning premiers at the MCG.

James Jordon has been a great find for the Demons.

Sydney’s rookies aren’t the only ones to target ahead of Round 3. Even though Matt Flynn comes up against the might of Max Gawn this week, he too will enjoy a hefty price rise with a breakeven of -145. If you don’t own the big Giant, then he’s definitely a must have at R3. In defence, Tom Highmore’s efficiency has helped him to scores of 60 and 77 – recording 20 effective disposals from a total tally of 28.

In the midfield, James Jordon (BE -87) doesn’t look like losing his place any time soon after another solid display against the Saints. He ranks equal-third at the Demons for centre bounce attendances and eighth for disposals. He also ranks in the top-10 in the AFL for tackles.

As we look ahead to Round 3, hopefully we’ll see a few new faces as we only had four debutants in Round 2, well below the 23 from the season opener.

Originally published as KFC SuperCoach Rookie Bible: Which cheapies to buy, hold and sell for Round 3