KFC SuperCoach AFL: Bargain buys for 2023 season, impact of trades
Moving to a new club can create huge KFC SuperCoach value, but it doesn’t work for everyone. Here are the names to watch plus biggest 2023 bargains.
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Who should be on your 2023 KFC SuperCoach watch list?
We’re already on the hunt for potential bargains, who can come in the form of fallen premiums, breakout stars and players returning from injury – scroll down for the players to watch this summer.
And then there’s the trade period.
Players with a point to prove and a new role can be KFC SuperCoach specials – just ask Will Brodie or George Hewett.
So, who could be on the move and provide fantasy value in 2023? We assess the big names to watch when the free agency and trade window opens.
SCROLL DOWN FOR MORE 2023 KFC SUPERCOACH BARGAINS
TOM MITCHELL. PREDICTED PRICE: $522,000 MID
Collingwood didn’t have a player rank in the top 40 in the AFL for clearances last season, which explains why the Pies completed a last-minute trade for the 29-year-old ball magnet. Mitchell is proven KFC SuperCoach premium, averaging at least 113 points a game from 2017-21 before dropping to a 96 average this year, his lowest return since 2014. There was a clear reason for that – he attended just 53 per cent of centre bounces this year at Hawthorn, down from 80 per cent in his Brownlow year (when he averaged 129.1 KFC SuperCoach points). It might be optimistic to expect that kind of jump in scoring but he will be playing a much friendlier role and be available at his cheapest price in seven years. One downside – Mitchell won’t get to play against Collingwood, a team he has averaged 123.9 points against over his career.
Tom Mitchell in 2023. 🧲 📈 #SuperCoach#AFLFantasy#AFLTrade
— Fantasy Freako (@FantasyFreako) October 12, 2022
BRODIE GRUNDY. PREDICTED PRICE: $506,000 RUC
Disaster! A combination of Grundy and Max Gawn might sound great for Melbourne supporters, but it effectively makes both irrelevant in KFC SuperCoach – at least until Gawn presumably gains FWD status. Grundy will have a point to prove and will be priced at this year’s 103.5 average minus a discount for playing just six matches, but can he score well enough, while sharing time with Gawn, to be one of the the top bracket of ruck scorers in 2023? With limited options elsewhere it might not be impossible, but you would want to see him taking most of the centre bounces in pre-season.
JOSH DUNKLEY. PREDICTED PRICE: $588,000 FWD/MID
Dunkley’s move to Brisbane should ensure continued premium output as he assumes the role of the Lions’ No.2 midfielder behind Lachie Neale. That could result in an uptick in scoring, or worst case he averages 104-108 as he has the past three years. He’s likely to play in more wins and we won’t have the headache of trying to worry about Luke Beverdidge spinning the magnets each week. The big question will be what position he’s assigned by Champion Data. If he’s MID/FWD, he’s a no-brainer. If he’s MID only it will be a tougher call. In 2022 the eighth-ranked midfielder, Christian Petracca, averaged 112.3, while 15 midfielders averaged 110 or better. Dunkley has managed that once in his career, when he hit 116.5 in 2019. But he has rarely played full-time in the guts.
TIM TARANTO. PREDICTED PRICE: $496,000 MID/FWD
The Richmond recruit has demonstrated premium scoring potential, avering 102.4 in 2019 and 97.3 in 2021. That figure dipped to 91.4 this year but he did post five scores over 110. His ability to win his own footy and hit the scoreboard plus high tackle numbers provide multiple scoring avenues, even if not all his kicks hit a target. The Tigers clearly set out to address issues at centre bounces during the trade period, so expect Taranto to spend most of his time at the coal face, although his versatility means he can rest forward and be a dangerous option. If he’s available in KFC SuperCoach as a forward next season, he’ll be very high on the most-wanted list.
JACOB HOPPER. PREDICTED PRICE: $328,000 MID
See above for Taranto, except Hopper will be a whole lot cheaper. Hopper made the All-Australian squad in 2021, but his 2022 was derailed by multiple knee surgeries that sidelined him from round 1-18 – delivering a big fantasy price discount. If you rate centre bounce attendances as an indicator of KFC SuperCoach potential, he is likely to be at just about every one for the Tigers. He has averaged 90-plus three times in his career but never cracked three figures, so he’s unlikely to be a season-long keeper. But he should make some quick cash and be a great stepping stone to a top-liner, especially if he starts well.
LUKE JACKSON. PREDICTED PRICE: $459,000 RUC/FWD
What were we saying about ruck issues? You can potentially put a line through four starting ruckmen – Gawn, Grundy, Jackson and Sean Darcy – after Jacko’s move to the Dockers. Darcy’s scores were significantly impacted when he played alongside Lloyd Meek this year, and Jackson will play a lot more games than the six Meek managed in 2021. That would narrow the ruck premium pool to Jarrod Witts, Tim English and Reilly O’Brien as the only ruckmen who averaged 100 this year – and English now has Rory Lobb to give him a chop-out. Witts and ROB in 2023? Or could Darcy Cameron be a serious starting option if the cards fall this way?
LLOYD MEEK. PREDICTED PRICE: $425,000 RUCK
Choosing an R1 might be tricky but we could have a bargain R2 if Meek lands the No.1 ruck role at his new club. Meek scored 83, 89 and 100 in three games that Sean Darcy missed this year and averaged 126 points in the WAFL. The uknown is Sam Mitchell’s ruck plans – he also has Ned Reeves and Max Lynch on the list. Meek didn’t score terribly in the games he played alongside Darcy this year, scoring 88, 84 and 78. That isn’t bad, but it might not make us a lot of cash given Meek is likely to start $200k more than we paid for Braydon Preuss this year.
JASON HORNE-FRANCIS. PREDICTED PRICE: $344,000 MID/FWD
The Phantom is already on board Port Adelaide’s big recruit for a second-year KFC SuperCoach breakout. It never really worked for Horne-Francis at North Melbourne and he finished the year with a 63 average, including two scores in the 90s. His junior numbers were off the charts and he’s set to be playing for a finals contender and in a more settled enviroment. As a reminder, the explosive teenager posted scores of 117, 141, 172, 166, 181 and 167 in his last six under-18 appearances in 2020.
Jason Horne-Francis priced at 63 as FWD-MID at Port? 👀
— The Phantom (@ThePhantomSC) October 3, 2022
Stepping stone guys are going to be even more popular next year. #SuperCoach#AFLTrade
TOBY BEDFORD. PREDICTED PRICE: $165,000 FWD
His numbers – 25 average from 18 career games – don’t scream ‘pick me’, but the case for considering Bedford is that he’ll be very cheap and forward rookies are hard to find. It’s also worth noting that he’s entering his fifth season, two of his lowest scores this year were after starting as the medical sub, and he did put up an 80 against the Lions from 11 disposals and two goals. Still, don’t expect too many scores like that but if he’s getting games – which seems likely after being targetted as Bobby Hill’s replacement – he’s in the mix for F8.
DARCY TUCKER. PREDICTED PRICE: $231,000 DEF/MID
Another player who could become KFC SuperCoach relevant after moving to a new club. “I’ve played a lot of different positions over my career so far,” he said after crossing to North Melbourne after seven years at Fremantle. “I really think my strengths are as a midfielder but versatility is also one of my strengths as well. I’ve played on the wing, half-forward, half-back, but I do see myself as that hybrid midfielder that can really help the team in a variety of ways.” For KFC SuperCoach players, a permanent spot at half-back would be ideal – we’ve seen how well players can score in that role at the Roos, from Aaron Hall to Luke McDonald. One to watch in pre-season.
JACK BOWES. PREDICTED PRICE: $274,000 DEF
Playing as a running defender last year, Bowes showed his potential with scores of 146 and 114 in the opening two rounds before going on to average 83 over 19 games. This year was a lot tougher, playing just five games and averaging 63 KFC SuperCoach points. Getting a game at the premier won’t be easy, although Geelong insists Bowes is part of the club’s 2023 plans. A former No.10 draft pick entering his seventh season is smack bang in breakout territory, and that price estimate is enough to make us interested.
11 FALLEN PREMIUMS, 2021 BREAKOUT STARS TO WATCH
Season 2022 provided all the evidence you’ll ever need that finding value in your starting squad is the ticket to KFC SuperCoach success.
Coaches who picked Patrick Cripps, Will Brodie, James Sicily, Stephen Coniglio, George Hewett and Jarrod Witts to start the year got a huge jump on the rest of the competition – a gap some were still reaping the rewards of 22 weeks later.
With a limited salary cap we need to squeeze the most points possible out of every dollar and that means finding players who will outperform their starting price.
And value can come in a variety of forms. Players returning from injury (Sicily, Witts), players getting opportunity in a new role or at a new club (Brodie, Hewett), stars returning to their best (Cripps, Lachie Neale), and breakout guns ready to jump into the elite bracket (Jack Sinclair).
Some players catch us by surprise, but for most there is a story behind the numbers – Jordan Dawson, for example, averaged 114 from his last nine games in 2021, so it wasn’t a huge shock that he carried that form to a new club in 2022.
The more digging you do, the more likely you are to find the nugget who can help you dominate.
So who should we have on the radar for 2023? Here are a few names to get you thinking, a mix of 2022 breakout stars who could go to another level and proven scorers who could return to what we know they can do.
And if you missed part one of our four-part (very early) pre-season series, scroll down for 11 more potential bargains.
FINALS BOLTER
Toby McLean (Western Bulldogs). Estimated price: $199,000 FWD/MID
Did we just see the bargain of 2023? McLean had dropped totally off the radar after suffering two ACL injuries in as many years, restricting him to three games in 2021 and none this year until he was recalled to the Dogs’ line-up for their elimination final. He quickly reminded us why he has been a successful KFC SuperCoach pick in the past, racking up nine touches in the first quarter on the way to 21 for the game – plus nine tackles – and 100 KFC SuperCoach points. Back in 2018 McLean was one of the best starting picks of the season, averaging 111 over the first 10 rounds (and finishing with a 95 average). That’s a long time ago and the Dogs’ midfield is set for a post-season shake-up, but at a rookie price the 26-year-old will be getting a lot more attention from fantasy coaches this summer.
2022 BREAKOUT STARS
Will Brodie (Fremantle). Estimated price: $556,000 MID
Career average 67.8 | 2022 average 102.4
The Phantom has been telling us for years that it was only lack of opportunity that was holding Brodie back, and boy was he right. After 25 games in five years with Gold Coast and a top KFC SuperCoach average of 80.2 from eight games in 2018, Brodie experienced a serious breakout with 22 matches and an average of 102.4 this year. He won’t be $224k ever again, which was his starting price in 2022. But regardless of the higher price, Brodie has all the traits to continue to be a premium KFC SuperCoach scorer. He averaged 27.6 disposals, 12 contested possessions, 5.7 clearances and 5.5 clearances this year. When you consider how low his time on ground is compared to many other midfielders, those are elite numbers. Brodie averaged only 67 per cent TOG in the last month, compared to other midfielders such as Clayton Oliver (86 per cent TOG rounds 20-23) and Lachie Neale (89 per cent). Comparing Brodie to two of the AFL’s endurance beasts is probably unfair, but it provides some context for his scoring at least. If his TOG can improve to at least 75 per cent, there will be a decent argument Brodie can take another leap forward in KFC SuperCoach in 2023 – and David Mundy’s retirement could create that opportunity. It’s only that low TOG holding him back. It’s worth noting he will be MID only next year after being one of the top picks of 2022 as a FWD/MID. Based on that you’d want to be confident he can average at least 105 before starting him.
Jarrod Witts (Gold Coast). Estimated price: $597,000 MID
Career average: 83.2 | 2022 average: 109.9
Witts averaged between 87-99 in the past five years before making a huge leap to be the top ruckman of 2022. He was one of the best buys of the season for those who started him at $380k, scoring 117 or more in seven consecutive games from rounds 6-12 and peaking at $617k. While his scoring dipped after the bye (119.5 average pre-bye vs 98.4 post-bye) Witts still finished 158 points clear of the second-ranked ruckman for overall points – Max Gawn. The question KFC SuperCoaches will be asking when they weigh up their 2023 starting rucks will be whether Witts can replicate the first KFC SuperCoach 100-plus season average of his career. He led the AFL in hit-outs (average 37.9), hit-outs to advantage (13) and attended an average of 77 ruck contests a game (ranked second behind Reilly O’Brien). Comparing those numbers to 2019 – Witts’ last full season – he averaged 1.2 more hit-outs to advantage a game, but perhaps tellingly his hitout to advantage rate improved from 25.8 per cent in 2019 to 34.3 per cent this year. When sharked hit-outs cost points for ruckmen, that extra 10 per cent is significant. As Gold Coast continues to improve and push towards a maiden finals berth, there’s little to suggest Witts can’t continue to be a ruckman who averages triple figures. Whether he can hold off Gawn, Grundy and Co to remain the No. 1 scorer is another matter, though.
George Hewett (Carlton). Estimated price: $605,000 MID
Career average: 79.8 | 2022 average: 111.4
Hewett averaged more than 78 once in his career in Sydney but quickly established himself as a crucial member of Michael Voss’s beefed up Carlton midfield. After playing predominantly as a defender or tagger for Sydney, Hewett was unleashed as a contested bull after joining the Blues as a free agent. The result was career-best numbers for possessions (28.5 – previous best 21.9), tackles (4.9 – previous best 4.8), inside-50s (4.2 – previous best 2.3) and clearances (6.5 – previous best 4.7). Hewett will lose DEF status next year, which will make him a less attractive KFC SuperCoach option, but not one that should be completely discarded, pending his recovery from a back issue that prematurely ended his 2022 campaign. Seemingly the only thing holding him back from premium KFC SuperCoach scoring was a permanent midfield role and there’s no doubt he sits high in Voss’s engine room plans. He will be priced among the top on-ballers in the game, so KFC SuperCoaches would want to be confident Hewett can average 110-plus again. Considering 12 of his 15 matches this year were tons, why couldn’t he?
Mason Redman (Essendon). Estimated price: $505,000 DEF
Career average: 69.3 | 2022 average: 92.8
The rebounding Bomber didn’t quite have the premium breakout of some other players on this list, but the jump from 75.5 points a game in 2021 to 92.8 points was significant. Redman started the year slowly, averaging 70.2 points to round 5. But he exploded in his next 10 games, averaging 109.4 points and eventually peaking at $576k late in the season. His season-high of 176 points came in round 20, but Redman otherwise scored 49, 68, 63 and 55 in the last five rounds. He’s one of the hardest breakout players to judge as his ceiling is incredibly high, but his floor is also very low. The concern about Redman’s ability to take the next step and be a true premium defender is the presence of Jordan Ridley. Ridley is also an elite ball user and if Essendon’s next coach wants to use him in more of a distributor role, it will limit Redman’s output. Both Redman and Ridley have the quality to be top KFC SuperCoach defenders but they might struggle to reach the absolute heights of Stewart, Dawson, Sicily, Sinclair and Co while they cannibalise each other’s points.
Luke Davies-Uniacke (North Melbourne). Estimated price: $550,000 MID
Career average: 74 | 2022 average: 101.2
Finding players who finish a season strongly is a time-honoured tactic to identifying breakout stars for the next year. Davies-Uniacke’s 2022 campaign can be divided neatly in half – he averaged 88 in the first 11 rounds then roared home with a 113.2 average over the last 11 rounds including scores of 149, 141 and 138, highlighting his high ceiling (for comparison Lachie Neale averaged 110.6 over the same period). In that time LDU was also the AFL’s no. 1 centre clearance player. After showing elite ball-winning traits as a junior, the No. 4 draft pick is ready to explode under Alastair Clarkson in his sixth AFL season.
Connor Rozee (Port Adelaide). Estimated price: $507,000 FWD/MID
Career average: 78.7 | 2022 average: 93.3
See above for the appeal of fast finishers, and Rozee fits the same category. His case is slightly different in that his spike in scoring followed a clear role change when he moved from playing mostly forward in the opening four rounds to being used primarily as a midfielder from round 5 onwards. The impact on Port Adelaide was stark (after starting the year 0-4 the Power went 10-8 from there) and on his KFC SuperCoach scoring, jumping from an average of 51.3 in the first month of the season to 102.7 for the rest of the year. And what really catches our attention is scores of 153 and 162 – this guy can go big. Pick 5 in the 2018 draft, Rozee will be priced at a 93 average and will hopefully retain dual-position status, making him one of the most exciting forward line prospects for 2023.
Nick Daicos (Collingwood). Estimated price: $496,000 DEF/MID
Career average: 91.3
The second-year KFC SuperCoach breakout is a rare and beautiful thing. Only the true elite have achieved it – think Marcus Bontempelli (who averaged 78.6 in his debut season and 103.2 in year two), Clayton Oliver (70.3 to 111.5) and Sam Walsh (86.9 to 101.1). Amazingly, Daicos outscored all of that trio in his debut season. How far can he go next year? He won’t come cheap but if he can add 10 points to his average we would be looking at a season keeper for under $500k, which could be very tempting in a defensive line likely to feature a string of top-liners priced over $600k. Daicos might get more midfield time in his second season but should still have DPP in KFC SuperCoach, and is so good behind the ball we’d be happy to see him stay there.
FALLEN PREMIUMS
Jake Lloyd (Sydney). Estimated price: $501,000 DEF
2018-2021 season average: 112.7 | 2022 average: 92.1
Lloyd was one of the most reliable picks in KFC SuperCoach from 2018-21, missing just one game in that time (when he was a late out due to Covid) and averaging 107 or better in each of those seasons. His durability was again a feature in 2022, playing 21 of 22 home-and-away games this year, but missing round 1 saved a lot of KFC SuperCoaches – including overall winner Jean-Paul Haigh. Lloyd wasn’t terrible but his numbers were down across the board – his average of 24.1 disposals a game was his lowest since 2015 and his KFC SuperCoach average of 92.1 was his lowest in six years. He was clearly hurt by the emergence of other players who eased the Swans’ reliance on Lloyd to move the ball, and by splitting the kick-ins with Nick Blakey (Lloyd took 101 this year and Blakey 90. Last year Lloyd took 133 with Jordan Dawson next at the Swans on 74). That mix would have to change next season to put Lloyd back on the watch list – although he did send a reminder of his pedigree with 25 disposals and two goals in Sydney’s qualifying final win against Melbourne.
Rory Sloane. Estimated price: $363,000 MID
2017-2021 season average: 98.9 | 2022 average: 83.5
Sloane had surgery after rupturing his ACL against Richmond in round 5. Of his three games before then, two produced scores of 98 and 100, and the Crows veteran knows how to score in KFC SuperCoach. He averaged 100-plus in seven of eight seasons from 2013-19 and 97 points a game as recently as 2021. He will turn 33 just before round 1 next season and his role in a rebuilding Crows team will be an interesting pre-season watch, but he’s likely to receive a 20 per cent discount from an already injury-affected 83.5 average. Mid-pricers are harder to pick in the midfield but what Matt Rowell produced this year should be the low end of what we can expect in 2023 for an all-time KFC SuperCoach gun.
Jordan Ridley (Essendon). Estimated price: $498,000 DEF
2020-2021 season average: 100.3 | 2022 average: 91.6
Will the real Jordan Ridley please stand up? Or at least the one we saw in the opening month of 2021, who was destined to become the best defender in KFC SuperCoach. Ridley opened that season with scores of 125, 136, 147 and 124. Discarding round 5 of 2021, when he was concussed on a score of 31, Ridley has averaged 92.8 points from 36 games since. Not too shabby, but also not the uber premium numbers most KFC SuperCoaches thought would become the norm. Ridley’s role was the issue this year, playing mostly as a key defender rather than in the intercept role he flourished in during 2020 and early in 2021. Champion Data guru Daniel Hoyne has suggested the Bombers should recruit a key defender to free up Ridley, a scenario KFC SuperCoach teams have been hoping would eventuate in the past 12-18 months. During that time Ridley has lost his monopoly on kick-ins due to Mason Redman’s emergence, and has not had the same attacking licence from halfback as he was introduced to the Bombers’ team with. Redman isn’t going anywhere, but maybe the development of Zach Reid is what KFC SuperCoaches need for Ridley to rediscover his elite scoring ability? Essendon’s next coach could do us all a massive favour as Ridley has all the ingredients to be scoring in the Stewart/Dawson mould. It all just comes back to his role.
Jarryd Lyons (Brisbane Lions). Estimated price: $494,000 MID
2020-2021 season average: 115 | 2022 average: 90.9
Lyons had two incredible seasons in 2020 and 2021 but his average of 90.9 this year is actually closer to his career norm. The Brisbane onballer has averaged between 89-99 in five of the past seven seasons, surprisingly low numbers considering how good he was in those two huge seasons. Lyons was still the fourth-ranked Lion this year, but his centre bounce attendances were well down on previous seasons. Lyons had 12 centre bounce attendances in the last game of the home-and-away season against Melbourne, behind Rhys Mathieson (16), Hugh McCluggage (17) and Lachie Neale (27), among others. There have been periods of the season where McCluggage’s move to a more inside role, Cameron Rayner’s extra midfield time and cameos from Zac Bailey and Deven Robertson have caused Lyon’s CBA rate to fall. As the Lions continue to transition towards a midfield led by Neale and McCluggage, Lyons faces a tall order to re-establish himself as a premium midfield KFC SuperCoach scorer. He was still No. 2 at the Lions for CBAs behind Neale in many games, but there was a noticeable drop-off. Lyons recorded career-best numbers for disposals, marks, tackles and clearances in 2021 but dropped off in each of those stats this year.
11 bargains for your 2023 KFC SuperCoach watchlist
It’s never too early to start KFC SuperCoach planning for next year.
In the first of a four-part series, three of our KFC SuperCoach experts have identified 11 potential bargains to monitor during the off-season.
From injury-cursed former KFC SuperCoach studs to potential breakout stars, this list has something for everyone.
And it tells us new coaches Alastair Clarkson and Adam Kingsley could have a huge say in the final make-up of our teams, depending on how they use some potentially underpriced stars.
Scroll down to see which players should be on your watch list for 2023.
Lachie Whitfield (GWS Giants). Estimated price: $468,000 DEF/MID
Could we? Whitfield is on the ‘never again’ list of many KFC SuperCoaches after burning the more than 80,000 who started him this year at what we thought was a bargain price of $502k. But there were some excuses. Whitfield was played all over the field – often in the same game – and missed matches with ankle and hip injuries, which he probably also carried while he was in the team. His form improved under Mark McVeigh – averaging 94 after the Giants’ bye – but it will all come down to new coach Adam Kingsley and how he uses Whitfield in the pre-season. If he parks him at halfback and allows him to maximise his elite running and disposal, it will be hard to resist a 28-year-old priced at 86 who has averaged 90-plus in five of the past six seasons including 111 and 104 in 2019-20.
Tarryn Thomas (North Melbourne). Estimated price: $292,000 MID/FWD
Can Alastair Clarkson unlock the true potential of North Melbourne’s No. 8 draft pick from 2018? We certainly hope so. Thomas looked certain to make the jump to KFC SuperCoach premium status after finishing the 2021 campaign with three tons in five matches and an average of 103 in his last seven games. His finish was so eye-catching, some coaches were willing to pay $459,300 at the start of this season to make sure they didn’t miss out on his breakout campaign. Yet, for a variety of reasons including form and role, Thomas’ average regressed from 84.4 to 53.7. He’s expected to be about $170k cheaper to start next season than he was in round 1 this year and will surely be one of the biggest pre-season focuses for KFC SuperCoaches. He’ll likely be about $65k more expensive than Will Brodie started this year, but the potential for a similar breakout season is clearly there. Thomas averaged 25 disposals, 131 KFC SuperCoach points and 7.4 score involvements in five VFL matches, including scores of 164 and 148. Over to you, Clarko.
Dustin Martin (Richmond). Estimated price: $474,000 MID/FWD
Richmond superstar Martin’s KFC SuperCoach average of 87.2 was his lowest since his debut campaign of 2010 and only the third time in his illustrious career he has averaged less than 90 points a game. Does that present a bargain or cause for concern? Martin had a lot go against him this year, returning from serious injury, taking time off for personal reasons and then being sidelined again. After scoring his annual round 1 ton against Carlton, Martin’s season-high 119 in round 9 was the only other time he hit triple figures. However, it’s worth noting he played more time forward than in previous years and still only scored less than 70 once. Of course, five scores of 69-83 in eight matches are a long way from premium numbers. But if Martin returns to anywhere near his damaging best, he could be a huge bargain. If priced at his average of 87, Martin will likely be available for about $450-470k. If a discount is applied for playing eight matches, Martin for less than $450k would be hard to resist – should he get through most of pre-season. With 35 trades, KFC SuperCoaches have enough to take a risk or two on a player and renowned fast starter Martin could well be worth the punt. The landscape changes significantly if he’s playing elsewhere next year, but that talk seems to have died down.
Nat Fyfe (Fremantle). Estimated price: $309,000 MID/FWD
Nat Fyfe for less than $350k? Surely not? It sounds crazy – even writing it felt wrong – but it might be a reality next year after the Freo skipper averaged 63.3 from seven games during an injury-hit 2022 season. If an injury discount is applied, Fyfe might even come in at closer to $300k. And, that’s before we even consider the fact he’s likely to be listed as a FWD/MID. Fyfe hasn’t started a season that cheap since 2011, his second year in the AFL. The obvious concern is his recent injury history. Fyfe has played only 36 games in the past three years, including seven in 2022. Picking injury-prone players is asking for trouble in KFC SuperCoach, but for hypothetical reasons let’s say he gets through pre-season. Even as a potential stepping stone to a more durable premium, could you really overlook a massively discounted Fyfe? Not if he has DPP, surely.
Will Phillips (North Melbourne). Estimated price: $207,000 MID-FWD
Let’s say the No. 3 draft pick from a few years back gets a 20 per cent discount after not playing a game this year? That would price Phillips about $207k to start the 2023 season, only $9k more than many coaches were prepared to pay to have him in their teams before his debut was pushed back to round 3 last year. Hoping for a 30 per cent discount might seem a bit rich, but we can only dream. Phillips managed only three VFL games this year (averaging 15 disposals and 54 KFC SuperCoach points) as he struggled with bouts of glandular fever and Covid. It’s been a rough start to AFL life for a player who posted huge numbers as a junior. North Melbourne’s most recent injury/health update said Phillips would have to build his loads during pre-season, having missed so much football this year. Depending on the rookie situation next year – and Phillips’ health – paying $190k or thereabouts might become a necessity. He was listed as a FWD/MID this year and should Phillips retain DPP status and work his way into Clarko’s plans, he might be the cheap F6 many coaches crave. Then again, that’s a lot of ifs and buts. Keep him in mind, but a lot would need to go right between now and round 1 of 2023 for him to feature in your KFC SuperCoach side.
Oscar Allen (West Coast). Estimated price: $242,000 FWD
Key forwards are usually a no-go area in KFC SuperCoach but we’ve seen in the past two years if they are cheap enough, they can make some serious cash. In 2021, Joe Daniher jumped in value by almost $200k in 10 rounds and this year SuperCoaches brave enough to start Charlie Curnow reaped a $250k profit after both started at a price similar to what Allen is likely to be next year. Allen didn’t play a game in 2022 due to a nagging foot injury but he will become even more crucial to the Eagles in 2023 after Josh Kennedy’s retirement. Back in 2020, he scored 152 against Collingwood en route to a season average of 78.6, right around the mark Daniher and Curnow hit in the past two years. Speaking of key forwards, Gold Coast’s Ben King is likely to be even cheaper coming back from knee surgery, but with just two tons from 53 games and a career-high average of 55, he’s probably a pass.
Hunter Clark (St Kilda). Estimated price: $311,000 DEF
Could the injury-cursed Saint be the Jack Sinclair of 2023? The breakout ingredients are all there – top-10 draft pick entering his seventh season, and no one doubts Clark’s talent. Getting on the park regularly has been the issue – being subbed out at halftime in round 23 with a groin injury summed up another frustrating year. It’s fair to say he has shown glimpses rather than consistent evidence of elite KFC SuperCoach scoring ability (his best season average is 81.7 in 2020) but he will be priced at around a 60 average and the Saints are screaming out for some class through the midfield. Do the right thing, Ratts.
Dom Sheed (West Coast). Estimated price: $255,000 MID
Sheed epitomised the Eagles’ cursed 2022 season, suffering an ankle injury in the first practice match in February then going down again in his comeback game with a stress-related lower leg injury that ruled him out for the rest of the season. The result was one game for the year for a KFC SuperCoach score of 67. His extremely limited game time should deliver a huge price discount and he will start in the Will Brodie/Stephen Coniglio price range from this year. Sheed hasn’t been a premium scorer in the past but he has consistently averaged 80-plus with a career-best of 95 in West Coast’s premiership season. He should get regular midfield time and anything close to that would be enough for a big price bump.
Errol Gulden (Sydney). Estimated price: $466,000 FWD-MID
A premium jump was surely only a matter of time – after all, Gulden posted 139 and 136 in the opening two games of his career. Finishing the season with an average of 85.7 doesn’t exactly inspire confidence that Gulden can launch to 100-plus next season. What does, however, are the shifts we saw in his game and role this year. Gulden spent more time on a wing this season and won more possessions than his debut campaign behind the ball. The beauty is he spent more than enough time in the attacking 50 to still be listed as a FWD next year. Gulden’s average was ranked 33rd of this year’s forwards, but only 11 points off the top-10 (Adam Treloar was 10th at 96.4). In round 20 against the Giants, Gulden tallied career-high disposals (33), metres gained (697), marks (12) and inside-50s (10), on his way to a season-high 131 points. Those sort of performances will be the norm soon, possibly as soon as next year.
Hayden Young (Fremantle). Estimated price: $502,000 DEF
OK, a player costing about $500,000 doesn’t scream bargain pick. But Young is charting towards an average of 100-plus, having lifted his average from 77 to 92 this year. The reason he’s on this bargain list is that he could be a keeper for just over $500k. Between rounds 13-21 this year the 21-year-old ranked fifth of all general defenders in the AFL for uncontested possessions and marks, sixth for disposals and eighth for intercepts. Young finished the season with an elite disposal efficiency of 82.1 per cent, which compares favourably to top KFC SuperCoach defender Tom Stewart (84.2 per cent). Young averaged 97.3 from round 12 onwards. Perhaps the only question mark will be who out of Luke Ryan, Heath Chapman and Young start the year as the Dockers’ No.1 distributor. Keep an eye on Freo’s back six set up as season 2023 draws closer.
Harry Himmelberg (GWS Giants). Estimated price: $492,000 DEF/FWD
Next to moving Stephen Coniglio back into his preferred midfield role, the best thing Mark McVeigh did as interim GWS coach for KFC SuperCoaches was shifting Himmelberg to defence. Himmelberg’s price got as low as $318k after round 11, when he provided a sign of things to come with 126 points with 20 disposals and seven marks against Brisbane. The next match against North Melbourne was a monster – 16 marks, 37 disposals and almost 700m gained, for 187 points. Himmelberg will be priced at an average of about 91, yet averaged 112 from round 11 onwards. And he’s likely to retain DPP status. Expect him to be one of the top starting picks next year if Adam Kingsley continues what McVeigh started with Himmelberg in defence.
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Originally published as KFC SuperCoach AFL: Bargain buys for 2023 season, impact of trades
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