KFC SuperCoach Investor Daniel Begala’s trade tips for Round 5
Jordan Ridley was the breakout star of KFC SuperCoach last year. And there’s a defender following a very similar path in 2021. The Investor’s Round 5 trade advice.
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Investors were left licking their wounds after a weekend that was dominated by rookie roulette and shambolic performances.
The chaos wasn’t limited to the rookies, however, with a range of injuries and gobsmacking performances sure to trigger the ire of even the most-seasoned coaches.
Injuries, suspensions, and the dreaded term “managed”, contributed to a tricky weekend for all and sundry.
It wasn’t all doom-and-gloom, though, with a breadth of blue chip saviours generating lofty dividends that rescued our well-balanced portfolios from sub-2,000 weekly scores.
We were also blessed with three new “unicorns” who announced themselves on the KFC SuperCoach Stock Exchange over the weekend.
Our resident expert, Daniel Begala, examines the key decisions impacting coaches as we approach quarter time of the KFC SuperCoach marathon.
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GOING, GOING, GAWN?
The veterans will preach “Guns n’ Rookies”.
The speculative traders will preach “Midprice Madness”.
There are even some who preach the “Auto Fill” button.
It happens each and every season.
It’s like clockwork.
There will be “unicorns” among us.
What’s a unicorn you may ask?
They are the stocks (players) that blossom from absolute obscurity to must-have blue chip investments in each respective line.
… And almost overnight!
They initially have the hallmarks of “Midprice Madness”, but instead, transform into household names with top 6-8 scoring pedigree.
What’s the catalyst?
It could be a role change. It could be a change of coach, scenery or team. It could even be a slight tweak to the rule that inspires a scoring renaissance.
Irrespective of the catalyst, a season-defining and pivotal decision looms for investors.
Do you want to identify the next Jordan Ridley who, on the verge of Round 3 (FY20) was priced as low as $322K, before his meteoric rise to blue chip and must-have defender?
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This year is no different and, to The SuperCoach Investor, the three key “unicorns” are Changkuoth Jiath ($400K, DEF), Taylor Walker ($469K, FWD) and Jarman Impey ($365K, FWD) who still display substantial value.
The ships have began sailing, but – like Jordan Ridley (FY20) – there is still time to hitch a ride and enjoy the spoils as these stocks progress towards stardom amid the top 6-8 players of their division.
The Begala Brigade only boasts the services of one of these unicorns, Impey, and rues the missed opportunity of Walker and Jiath who appear to be gathering steam each week.
There is still time – if you see their scoring trajectory continuing – to acquire their services as they’re still substantially discounted to alternative blue chip investments producing commensurate dividend yields.
Why pay north of $600k for Jake Lloyd when you can have Jiath for two-thirds of his price, equivalent scoring and, best of all, benefit from future capital appreciation?
As context, I purchased Jordan Ridley (FY20) after two price rises at $410k last season and still revelled in the spoils of each of his future dividends that progressed The Begala Brigade into the top 400 coaches in 2020.
Jiath’s trajectory all-but mirrors FY20 Ridley and should be a firmly entrenched in your investment discussions this week.
Trend is your friend, coaches, and the quicker you identify it – the BETTER!
ROOKIE ROULETTE
The roulette table was in full swing over the weekend.
There were more sub-30 scores from our rookies than a small suburban population.
The rookies are challenging esteemed coaches and probably causing the most pertinent headaches at the KFC SuperCoach selection table each week.
If you were to trace your first month, you’d probably be able to identify another 100-200 KFC SuperCoach points that have potentially gone begging on the back of slightly imperfect rookie decisions.
For the first one-to-two weeks, we can excuse this.
The dust is settling and we’re still trying to identify our preferred stocks.
But – as we saw over the weekend – we’re unfortunately no closer to identifying the best rookies to occupy D6, M7-8 & F6.
As they always say in the footballing landscape, match-ups and ultimately – premierships – are decided by your bottom three-to-four players - NOT your top-line blue chip stocks.
It’s a real problem and, if left unchecked, will continue to unravel the performances of your well-oiled investment portfolios.
The quicker you can get them off your field, the better.
We may finally be in luck, however, with a fresh wave of rookies likely to ensue including highly-touted Finlay Macrae ($126K, MID-FWD) who looms as the long-term replacement to Taylor Adams at Collingwood.
Give him his two weeks and if – like his half-brother, Jack – he has the hallmarks of a KFC SuperCoach scorer, he’ll be a must-have in Round 7.
On the bubble this week, too, is Alec Waterman ($102K, FWD) who should provide greater coverage at F6 given his mature-aged status and penchant for goals (he’s booted four).
The moral of this dilemma, however, is that you must continue to nurture the best-performing penny stocks (Errol Gulden, Chad Warner, Tom Powell etc) and look to promptly excuse the sporadic rookies from your portfolio.
Yes, Braedan Campbell’s ($258K, MID-FWD) breakeven of 73 is likely to dampen his immediate price appreciation, but I’ll preference his retention over the likes of Anthony Scott, James Jordon or Tyler Brockman.
There is no room for niceties, folks, it’s about streamlining that portfolio to deliver the highest and most consistent dividends possible.
THE PHANTOM’S BURNING QUESTIONS
Another big week of KFC SuperCoach means another big round of burning questions.
From high rookie breakevens and underpriced keepers to Josh Kelly’s role and first upgrades, here’s my take on the big issues ahead of Round 5.
Is it too early to start upgrading?
It’s never too early to improve your team. It’s just how you go about it.
On the surface, some rookies look ready to trade but it is still very early and it may only take one score for the cash generation to tick over again.
Take Swan Braeden Campbell for example. His breakeven of 71 is above his average of 63 – and that’s usually a sign his time as a cash cow is up.
Especially with only one score of more than 56 in his first four matches.
But that breakeven could fall dramatically in Round 6 if the 18-year-old can lift his output against the Giants, given it will be calculated without the 29-point score from Round 3.
So, while there should be no rush to trade him out, if you have the cash to turn him into a premium, you are one step closer to that complete team.
Campbell may still have money to make, depending on his next score, but he’s not a keeper so you won’t lose in the long run.
On the other hand, sure, Caleb Daniel to Jordan Ridley is an upgrade in scoring, but it doesn’t get you any closer to a complete team, full of premiums.
It may be too early for many KFC SuperCoaches to upgrade to the top-line premiums, but, with the form of players like Hawks Changkuoth Jiath and Jarman Impey, you could get a top 6-8 scorer in their position at a very affordable price.
If you think either can maintain it, then consider a very cheap upgrade from a rookie before another steep price rise.
So it’s not too late for CJ?
I don’t think so.
After taking a game-high seven against the Dockers, the 21-year-old is the third-ranked player in the competition for intercept marks.
And he’s just as good with the ball in hand going the other way, averaging an elite 19 effective disposals per game.
Of all defenders to have played every match this season, there are nine averaging 100 KFC SuperCoach points or more – Jiath is one of them with an average of 104, on the back of three consecutive KFC SuperCoach tons.
To maintain this position, he would have to hold his 100-point average every from here.
Can he do it?
He has multiple avenues of scoring, the Hawks like to give him the ball and it’s going to be down there a fair bit.
But it’s hard to say for sure, given he’s only played 11 career games.
Even if he fades, though, you would take a 95-point average at D6 for $399k.
Who are you eyeing for the first upgrade, Phantom?
There are a number of runaway trains, Jordan Ridley and Jack Steele in particular, but they are getting expensive.
But Clayton Oliver at less than $600k could be the one.
He scored 130 against the Cats on Sunday, his third score of 120 or more for the year, but the Matt de Boer-affected 67 from Round 3 has resulted in another high breakeven of 161.
So even a 115-point score in Round 5 will see Oliver’s price fall to $591.
And after he blanketed young Fremantle star Andrew Brayshaw early last week, Hawk James Worpel might put some time into Oliver at the MCG on Sunday.
Well, I’m hoping so anyway.
What’s up with Josh Kelly?
A very good question. Definitely not his scoring.
He attended just six centre bounces against the Magpies, half that of Brett Daniels.
Yes, Brett Daniels.
But, unfortunately, for owners, it’s been the story of the year, with Kelly attending just 22 – the seventh-most at the club – in the opening four rounds.
His position splits aren’t much better to look at.
Wing: 18%
Midfield: 25%
Forward: 57%
Kelly is handballing more than he’s kicking, a concern for someone with his foot skills, and his contested possession numbers are the lowest they’ve been since 2015.
He’s posted scores of 98, 90, 100 and 90 as a result.
But the 26-year-old, who has already lost $60k off his price tag, is someone I’d upgrade around, before reassessing his form – and role – because those numbers aren’t likely to be your biggest on-field concern.
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Is it time we start taking Jack Bowes seriously?
Yes. There will be some fallen stars on offer but there are also a number legitimate underpriced premiums to consider.
And Bowes, at $503k, sits atop the list.
With Jack Lukosius’ move further up the ground this year, the 23-year-old has starred in defence, posting scores of 146, 114, 95 and 107 to start the season.
In the opening four rounds, of all general defenders, Bowes ranks first for disposals (29.8) and marks (8.5), second for KFC SuperCoach points (116) and fifth for metres gained (579).
And he’s not only taking the kick-ins but playing on most of the time.
In Round 4 against the Blues, the skilful right-footer played on from each of his seven kick-ins.
After an impressive junior career in the midfield, Bowes showed glimpses in his first five years at the Suns, playing a variety of roles.
But in his 2021 role, he’s now legitimate in KFC SuperCoach.
What about Adam Cerra?
The top 8-10 in the midfield is a lot tougher to crack than in defence, but Cerra should still be considered as a serious option at $495k.
After averaging 101 from Round 9 onwards last year, following a move up the ground from defence, the classy 21-year-old has posted three scores of 120 or more to start the season.
The other was a 56-point performance against the Blues in Round 3 in a match the young Dockers midfield – missing skipper Nat Fyfe - was well beaten.
And it’s the all-round nature of his game which should ensure Cerra maintains his scoring.
He only attended 11 centre bounces and recorded just one clearance in Round 5 but finished with 19 effective disposals, eight score involvements, seven marks and 468 metres gained – all stats he rates elite for across the year.
Just the one clanger and six tackles against the Hawks helped, too.
And Aaron Hall?
Now this is where it gets interesting.
And, no, let’s not go back to his blistering start to 2016, when he averaged 125 KFC SuperCoach points in the opening four rounds to lead the Brownlow.
Let’s stay in 2021.
In Round 2, Hall scored six KFC SuperCoach points as the medical sub.
Fast forward two weeks, though, and the 30-year-old played on six times from his seven kick-ins, on his way to 33 disposals and 133 points against the Crows in Round 4.
But because of that single figure score, despite the 81 points a week later, Hall’s price dropped to $388k following his standout showing.
Luke McDonald is injured again so he’s not coming back to take footy away from him. I’d like to see a bit more, though, and, given his price, KFC SuperCoaches can afford to wait and see.
OK, one more, Jake Stringer?
$282k forward. 21 centre bounces in Round 4. Scores of 124 and 86. It all sounds too good to be true – and that’s never a good thing.
Yes, with a breakeven of -45, his price will balloon this week but, given his history – an average of 71 or less in each of the past four seasons - it might be best to wait.
If he is legitimate, then anything less than $400k could still be good buying.
Should we trade Caleb Daniel?
No, I’d be holding. Read my full reasoning here.
Could you please explain how to correctly loophole a captain?
We’ve saved the best question until last.
This one actually came from The Phantom’s call-out for podcast questions on Facebook. Suitably from a man named Tom Jones, because I was about to burn down the house on Saturday night when I realised Brodie Grundy was on my bench without the emergency tag. I’m not even really sure what happened but, as it has been pointed out by all my friends on social media, it was a rookie error.
So if you are playing the captain’s loophole this week, double check you’ve done it right.
Originally published as KFC SuperCoach Investor Daniel Begala’s trade tips for Round 5
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