KFC SuperCoach 2021 ultimate premium guide: The top-price options to pick, consider and avoid in every position
Picking the wrong premium player in KFC SuperCoach can be a costly mistake. Here is The Phantom’s updated verdict on the top-price options in every position.
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Scratch Rowan Marshall from your Round 1 KFC SuperCoach plans.
That’s right, if you missed the news, the St Kilda big man, who is in more than 30 per cent of KFC SuperCoach teams as a dual-position ruck-forward has been sidelined by a foot injury.
In a year when the premium depth in the forward line is shallow, it’s not what we needed.
Niether is GWS ruckman Braydon Preuss missing up to five months with a shoulder injury.
So which top-price players should we build our KFC SuperCoach forwards lines around now? And does Preuss’ injury mean the set-and-forget combination of Max Gawn and Brodie Grundy is a must again - or are there other options?
Here’s in-depth look at the top-price options in every position, with updated verdicts.
DEFENDERS
THE LOCKS
Jake Lloyd (Syd) $656,400
The Sydney star has posted a KFC SuperCoach ton in 45 of his past 54 home-and-away matches.
That’s it. That’s the description.
Well, it could be. But there’s more. Lloyd finished with the equal-fourth-highest KFC SuperCoach average in the competition last year. He had more kicks than any other player in the minor round and ranked first in the competition for effective disposals, fourth for rebound 50s and fifth for metres-gained.
Rankings helped by the fact the skillful right-footer played on with 90 of his 94 kick-ins last. And with the new rule forcing the player on the mark to stand a further five metres back in 2021, that 96 per cent mark could be in trouble.
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SCROLL DOWN TO SEE THE RUCKS AND FORWARDS ANALYSIS
The only question mark is around his $656k price-tag. Is he overpriced?
There’s a case, sure, given the scores may even out across the 44 players on the ground a little with the return of standard quarters (you can find the full analysis on this here).
In short, highlighting the increased scaling at the top-end, there were 182 140+ scores in KFC SuperCoach last year – 16 more than in 2019 despite a total of 45 less games being played.
Lloyd had four of them, after just one the previous season, so another 122-point average may be a stretch.
The Phantom’s Verdict: You’re picking him for his consistent three-figure scores and, arguably, the best KFC SuperCoach role in the competition. Not for the value – you can do that elsewhere. Said he was a “little bit injured” in January but, hey, my foot would be hurting too if I had that many kicks. I wouldn’t worry.
EXPERT TEAMS: The Phantom | Al Paton | Tim Michell | Dan Batten
MID-PRICER GUIDE: ALL THE BEST VALUE PICKS
Rory Laird (Adel) $564,800
Your elsewhere could start here.
Laird is priced at an average of 105 – three points less than his career-best All-Australian year of 2018.
Great, right? That’s probably just his base line.
At the height of Adelaide’s struggles, the ball-winning defender moved into the midfield in Round 9 last year and starred, averaging 118 points per game in the run home. Laird had 37 disposals in Round 10 and 25 or more in each of his final five matches.
And, after leading the Crows for contested possessions, clearances and ground-ball gets from Round 10 – and with the departure of Brad Crouch - he’s likely to assume the same role in 2021.
The Phantom’s Verdict: Yep. Especially after coach Matthew Nicks confirmed the midfield role will remain in mid-February.
BEGINNER’S GUIDE: HOW TO GET STARTED IN KFC SUPERCOACH
THE NEXT BEST
Lachie Whitfield (GWS) $561,600
Whitfield is unlucky to miss out in the section above – just like he was in Round 3 last season.
The skillful Giant copped a heavy knock in the first quarter against the Bulldogs and was taken out the game in the second term.
He finished with eight KFC SuperCoach points to his name.
And, obviously, that score counted towards his overall average of 104.
Take out the injury-affected performance and Whitfield’s average was 110 – aligning with his career-best 111-point mark from the previous year.
Since Round 9, 2018, Whitfield has scored 85 KFC SuperCoach points or more in 39 of his 44 non-injury affected matches, with 29 KFC SuperCoach tons.
Some will raise the issue of his durability but apart from the four games he missed with a broken collarbone in 2019 – another impact injury – Whitfield has ran out in all-but three games for the Giants since Round 20, 2016.
The Phantom’s Verdict: Well, it appears he has suffered another impact injury after Whitfield sidelined with a bruised liver. He’s yet to be ruled out of Round 1 but coach Leon Cameron’s estimated 4-5 week timeline on February makes it very unlikely. He was close to a must-have before this.
Luke Ryan (Freo) $576,500
After pushing his average from 90 to 96 in an impressive third year in the competition, Ryan exploded in 2020, posting 13 KFC SuperCoach tons on his way to finishing with the second-highest average of all defenders to have played five or more games.
There’s no shame finishing runner-up to Jake Lloyd.
But if you look past his slow start, which included three scores of less than 80, Ryan averaged 116 from Round 4 onwards and passed the 100-point mark in 12 of his final 13 games.
In his fourth year in the competition – after being drafted from the VFL as 20-year-old in 2016 – Ryan was the No. 1 ranked player for intercepts and rebound-50s.
And, like Lloyd, the 186cm Ryan is a beneficiary of the recent play-on rule, running out of the square, adding to his kick tally, with 74 of 89 kick-ins last year.
He ranked No. 3 in the AFL for kicks per game as a result.
The Phantom’s Verdict: Huge 2020, and I’m tipping him to finish in the top-six, but I think he’s one who will lose a few points as the scores – and scaling – even out.
Tom Stewart (Geel) $538,000
He’s not getting a lot of love from the KFC SuperCoach community so far this pre-season, featuring in just 9.7 per cent of teams as of February 1.
But there is, indeed, plenty to love.
Stewart posted seven consecutive KFC SuperCoach tons to finish the home-and-away season, before scoring 151, 94 and 101 in the Cats’ last three finals.
In fact, if you take out the injury-affected 18-point score in Round 4, Stewart averaged 106 points per game, again, showing there is plenty of value in his $538k price-tag.
The Geelong star took more marks than any other player in the competition and rated elite for disposals, rebound 50s, effective kicks, effective disposals, metres gained and score launches for a defender.
He’s proven his consistency, too, scoring 84 points or more in 30 of his 36 matches in the past two home-and-away seasons.
The Phantom’s Verdict: You have to scroll a little find him, but that definitely shouldn’t put you off.
CAN THEY MAINTAIN IT?
Luke McDonald (NM) $512,900
In 2019, McDonald finished the year in defence, averaging just 60 KFC SuperCoach points per game and failing to win more than 20 disposals in any of his 13 matches.
Fast forward 12 months and, following a brief stint in a defensive midfield role, McDonald was crowned North’s best-and-fairest after a 10-game stretch in the run home which saw him average 25 disposals and 116 KFC SuperCoach points across half-back.
He not only became one of the club’s best ball-winners, but the competition’s.
The 26-year-old confirmed recently that he would settle in defence in 2021 and declared he’s only getting started.
“I’m not resting on my laurels and I really want to keep improving and try to be one of the best defenders in the competition, to be honest,” McDonald told the club’s website.
But, given his previous scoring history – averages of 67, 84, 64, 53 and 66 in his first five seasons in the game – if I had to pick one player to fit in this category in any position, it would be McDonald.
The Phantom’s Verdict: Not only did he find the ball at will, McDonald hit the target with 159 of his 196 disposals from Round 10 onwards. But I’ve just got too many questions. Do North become more direct under David Noble? Do opposition sides let McDonald run around by himself if the Roos improve?
Jordan Ridley (Ess) $547,700
Speaking of hitting targets, the numbers say the reigning Bombers best-and-fairest is the best ball-user in the competition.
Of all players to average 16 disposals or more, Ridley’s efficiency of 87.5 per cent is No. 1.
Ridley averaged 18 per game and 266 of his 304 total disposals were effective.
And, while he may have only played nine games in his first three seasons on the list, the right-footer hit the target with 113 of the first 130 disposals of his career.
Ridley also rated elite for intercept marks, contested marks and spoils for a defender, proving he has multiple avenues of scoring.
The Phantom’s Verdict: Ridley’s 2020 was the definition of breakout and his efficiency is likely to keep him in the top-six mix again in 2021.
Jeremy Howe (Coll, $517,900)
The intercept star is another who fits right under this header. Howe averaged 120 points in the opening month of 2020, before missing the rest of the season with a knee injury.
The big discount as a result makes his 2021 price tag look very appealing.
And it is. But I’m still not convinced.
Given the expected adjustment in scaling and Howe’s modified pre-season to-date, it appears too small a sample size for the 30-year-old, who had 27 intecepts across the first four rounds.
The Phantom’s Verdict: It’s a wait-and-see on this one for me, especially with Howe yet to resume full training.
THE SLEEPERS
Sam Docherty (Carl) $496,000
Remember this guy?
Only 6.6 per cent of KFC SuperCoaches seem to at the moment – at least in a good way, anyway.
He’s the guy who averaged 109 and 114 in consecutive seasons before his horror injury run.
In those two years, Docherty posted a SuperCoach ton in 33 of the Blues’ 44 matches.
He struggled for consistency last year, finishing with a 92-point average, but still managed to pass the 100-point mark on five occasions – all of them in excess of 117.
I think we should just be concentrating on the fact he played all but one game in 2020 after previously not playing since Round 23, 2017.
Docherty is recovering from off-season ankle surgery but is ahead of schedule according to the Blues.
The Phantom’s Verdict: The introduction of Adam Saad and the return of Nic Newman will be interesting, but I’m starting to talk myself into it.
Steven May (Melb) $507,900
This is how the Melbourne defender finished 2020: 115, 110, 149, 102, 58, 122 and 123.
And it must be noted, May was switched forward against the Dockers in Round 16, resulted in the sub-60 performance.
That’s serious scoring.
The former Sun took 91 kick-ins last year – only Lloyd took more – and he played on with 82 of them. As a result, May rated elite for kicks, effective kicks, disposals, effective disposals and metres gained as a defender.
He barely received a mention in KFC SuperCoach prior to his standout finish to last year, but he did average 82 or more in each of his final three seasons at Gold Coast.
The Phantom’s Verdict: I’m not saying I will pick him but, on form, and given his effectiveness by foot – something not all that common at the Demons – he should be in more than 0.9 per cent of KFC SuperCoach teams.
AVOID
Shannon Hurn (WC) $477,800
He still posted two big scores – 138 and 152 – last year, but the next gen of KFC SuperCoach defenders have well and truly gone past him.
MIDFIELDERS ($500k+)
THE LOCKS
Lachie Neale (Bris) $721,800
It’s a lot to pay – and, yes, he’s probably slightly overpriced – but do you really want to start without the Brownlow Medallist?
Neale posted 13 scores of 130 or more – seven of them in excess of 150 – to finish with a career-best average of 134. Only Max Gawn averaged more KFC SuperCoach points per game.
With shortened quarters, his percentage of time-on-ground was up by almost four per cent in 2020 and, as a result of his dominance through the midfield, Neale was one to benefit from the slightly adjusted scaling, which was mostly done at the top-end.
Without going into the complicated detail – you can read more here though – I’m not betting on another 134-point average.
But he’ll go close, and I’m tipping he will be the $650k+ midfielder who goes closest to maintaining his huge price tag – as well as the gap to the next-best scorer.
Neale tallied more disposals, contested possessions, effective disposals and KFC SuperCoach points than any other player last year and he passed that 134-point mark on eight occasions in 2019.
The Phantom’s Verdict: The answer to the question in the first line is still no, but it’s not as definite as it was in early February. The Lions are confident the star is in no doubt for Round 1 but a calf injury has interrupted his pre-season.
NEXT-BEST
Clayton Oliver (Melb), $656,700
Oliver’s staggering start to his career continued last year. After recording averages of 70, 111, 115 and 109 in his first four seasons, the contested-ball star went to another level in 2020.
He passed the 120-point mark for the first time, on the back of 13 scores of 100 or more and the first KFC SuperCoach double ton of his career.
Sure, his huge scores of 177 and 205 may have been scaled up slightly more than usual last season, but Oliver was more direct.
Adjusting his stats per 100 minutes, Oliver, on average, gained an extra 59 metres per game than in 2019 and recorded almost two extra kicks in each match.
He’s also proven himself as one of the most-durable players in the game, playing 89 consecutive games since the end of his debut season.
The Phantom’s Verdict: He was in the first draft but out the second. I think he can push the 120-point mark again but is there better value to start with? I’m still deciding. Oliver is being managed after off-season shoulder surgery but he averaged 109 after a double-reconstruction in 2019.
CAN THEY MAINTAIN IT?
Christian Petracca (Melb) $631,900
After a standout junior career as a midfielder, the KFC SuperCoach community waited - and waited – for Petracca’s breakout year. And, finally, after four years of failing to average more than 81 points, it happened.
And, to be fair, it was worth the wait.
A fitter, leaner Petracca took on a full-time midfield role in 2020 and thrived, averaging 23 disposals and 117 points per game, to finish the season as the seventh-ranked player in KFC SuperCoach.
The key to the strongly-built Demon’s rise was that he not only won more of the ball – at the contest and away from it – but he did so while mainting his influence forward-of-centre.
Petracca booted 15.14 off his own boot, played a direct-hand in 13 other majors – the ninth-most in the competition – and only Geelong forward Tom Hawkins was involved in more of his team’s scoring chains.
The Phantom’s Verdict: As good as those numbers are, and despite how unstoppable he looked at times last year, $631k is a lot to pay. An upgrade target for mine.
THE BULLDOGS
Jack Macrae ($650,100), Marcus Bontempelli ($623,900) and Adam Treloar ($587,600)
One of the biggest questions of the KFC SuperCoach pre-season is how the Bulldogs midfield operates with the inclusion of Treloar.
All are terrific scorers in their own right and the crowded Bulldogs engine-room has scored well individually in the past, too.
In 2019, Macrae, Bontempelli and Josh Dunkley finished as the second, fifth and sixth-ranked KFC SuperCoach scorers in the game.
But there were signs last year – Macrae out on a wing to start, Dunkley back inside-50 – that point to potential trouble in 2021.
Sure, despite the concern shorter quarters would affect the influence of accumulators, Macrae (121) was influential and Bontempelli (116) starred.
But the addition of Treloar is different.
Unlike Dunkley, he can’t play forward. He’s a jet but, arguably, he’s the least versatile of his new midfield teammates.
Add to that Tom Liberatore’s return to form, the rise of Bailey Smith and the magnet man himself, coach Luke Beveridge, and KFC SuperCoaches could very well have a problem.
The Phantom’s Verdict: Bontempelli is the one I’m concerned most about, given his effectiveness as a forward. Macrae not as much, given, even if he is moved around to some degree, he’s still likely to play more inside than outside. But Treloar is the value selection here – the former Magpie could go close to No. 1 at his new club, given the likelihood he could be the most-settled position-wise. Although, another soft-tissue injury is a concern.
CBA Numbers for the WB - Preseason 2021 Vs Hawks:
— AFLstatsmate (@AFLstatsmate) February 24, 2021
Western-bulldogs 29 -Tom Liberatore 23, Stefan Martin 19, Marcus Bontempelli 19, Josh Dunkley 17, Bailey Smith 15, Patrick Lipinski 12, Tim English 10, Anthony Scott 1
SLEEPERS
Matt Crouch (Adel) $594,700
In 2017, Crouch recorded more disposals than any other player in the competition, earning himself an All-Australian jacket for the first time, as well as his first Crows’ Club Champion award, in a year when Adelaide made the grand final.
Crouch averaged 111 SuperCoach points per match to finish the season as the sixth-ranked player in the game.
He was on the radar of every KFC SuperCoach.
But then the Crows lost their way and, to some degree, so did Crouch.
He was still winning the ball but he became less influential with it and averaged 102 and 104 points per game in the next two seasons respectively.
Then, after averaging 88 points in the opening three rounds of 2020, he was dropped by new coach Matthew Nicks.
He was well and truly off the radar.
And, given he’s only in 2 per cent of teams at the moment, he hasn’t found his way back on it.
That’s despite posting a KFC SuperCoach ton in 10 of the final 13 matches of the year after returning to the side.
And, more impressively, averaging 129 points from Round 12 onwards, when he really started to have an impact with his possession, following some external criticsm.
Only Max Gawn scored more points in the final month of the season.
The Phantom’s Verdict: Crouch was starting to tempt me before he was ruled out of the Crows’ practice match against the Power with an issue relating to his off-season hip surgery.
Taylor Adams (Coll) $588,800
This one is simple. In the eight games Adams played alongside Treloar last season, he averaged 102 KFC SuperCoach points per game. In the nine games without his former teammate, he averaged 116.
It was a similar story in 2019 with Adams increasing his average from 86 to 108 without Treloar in the side.
Now he’s gone, Adams assumes the extra midfield responsibility on a full-time basis.
And the tough midfielder, who averaged 28 disposals, 13 contested possesions, seven tackles, six clearances and six score involvements per 100 minutes, is coming off the best KFC SuperCoach season of his career, finishing 2020 with a 109-point average.
The Phantom’s Verdict: Given the questions marks on a number of $600k+ midfielders, like Crouch, Adams’ numbers are well and truly making the case for him. The case is only a solid one if he’s fit, though.
BOUNCE BACK
Patrick Cripps (Carl) $523,700
“You’re going to see him back to his powerful self and hopefully dominating clearances.”
That’s what Carlton assistant coach Brent Stanton said about the Blues co-captain in January, after Cripps added a few kilos over summer in a bid to return to the body shape which saw him star in the previous two seasons.
Between 2018 and 2019, Cripps posted a KFC SuperCoach ton in 29 of his 42 games – 11 of them in excess of 140.
After a career-best average of 119 in 2018, Cripps started the following year price at $648k.
This year, after trimming down in 2020 and struggling with form and injury on his way to a 97-point average, the 25-year-old is available for $125k less than the 2018 figure.
Now that’s value.
He had a shoulder reconstruction over summer but he was a standout in the practice match against the Bombers in the midfield.
The Phantom’s Verdict: I think I’ve just talked myself into him.
INJURY CONCERN
Josh Kelly (GWS $615,600), Nat Fyfe (Freo $608,300) and Tom Mitchell (Haw $610,100)
If you could guarantee all three would play every game for the year in the midfield, they would be just about the first three players you pick.
But history – and current injury – suggests that is unlikely to happen.
Kelly has averaged 114 or more in each of the past four seasons but in the past three he’s missed 18 home-and-away matches.
Fyfe has averaged 113 or more in the past three years and boasts three 120-point season averages across his career. But the Dockers star has missed 35 games through injury and suspension since 2015. And the rapid rise of the Fremantle midfield’s next generation saw him spend plenty of time inside-50 in 2020.
Mitchell has a different concern. The Brownlow Medallist played every last year after missing 12 months with a broken leg and averaged 113 points per game. A fit-and-firing Mitchell improves on that mark with the return of standard quarters.
But after undergoing a shoulder reconstruction, he’s yet to resume full training and is an unlikely starter for the Hawks’ AAMI Series fixture.
The Phantom’s Verdict: I love them all, but I’m just not sure I can justify starting any of them at this point.
NEXT GEN
Sam Walsh (Carl) $543,300
Walsh exploded onto the scene in his debut season of 2019, posting six KFC SuperCoach tons and finishing with an average of 87.
And just when it looked like the young gun had succumbed to the dreaded second-year Blues, following his 78-point average in the first seven rounds, he exploded again.
Walsh’s inside game developed dramatically in the second-half of the season, on the back of more exposure in the role, and he averaged 114 points in his final 11 matches.
Two of his final three matches of the year highlighted his rapidly improving all-round game.
In Round 16 against the Swans, Walsh tallied 25 disposals – 21 of them effective - 19 uncontested possessions, 10 score involvements, nine marks and six inside-50s.
Then in the final game of the year against the Lions in Round 18, Walsh stepped up on the inside, finishing with career highs in contested possessions (21) and groundball-gets (18), to go with 31 disposals and six clearances.
The Phantom’s Verdict: He ended up adding 11 points to his KFC SuperCoach average in his second season and a similar increase – if not bigger – is on the cards in 2021.
Hugh McCluggage (Bris) $545,500
The sublimely-skilled Brisbane young gun threatened to take over KFC SuperCoach in 2020.
After a moderate opening two games, McCluggage went bang, posting scores of 155, 141 and 116.
But then he struggled for consistency, passing the 100-point mark in just six of his next 12 matches.
It will happen, though.
In 12 TAC Cup games during his draft year, McCluggage was dominant through the midfield and forward of centre, averaging 28 disposals and two goals — a combination of numbers Champion Data had never seen at any level during their time covering the game prior to this.
Averages of 13 contested possessions, six clearances and nine score involvements per game made McCluggage the complete midfielder.
And it’s all likely to come together at the next level very soon.
If it wasn’t for his uncharacteristically bad conversion in front of goal – 8.21 – last year, McCluggage would’ve gone close to replicating his impressive 23-disposal, 1-goal per game season of 2019.
But what did improve was his contested possession rate which jumped from 37 to 40 per cent in 2020, after increasing from 35 the previous year.
The trend mirrors his KFC SuperCoach average, too, with McCluggage going from 55 to 77 in his sophomore year before jumping to 94 in 2019 and 101 last season.
The Phantom’s Verdict:Another jump isn’t all that far away.
AVOID
Dylan Shiel (Ess) $548,000
The Essendon midfielder’s past seven season averages are 95, 103, 99, 98, 90, 97, 102. Solid numbers. But not true KFC SuperCoach premium numbers. And he’s had more than enough time to convince us otherwise.
RUCKS
With the standout mid-price option in Preuss off the list and Marshall, the forward-line ruck cover, gone, is set-and-forget the only option?
SET-AND-FORGET
Max Gawn (Melb) $751,400
Look at that price.
After Gawn posted 12 KFC SuperCoach tons – a staggering seven in excess of 150 - it’s the most expensive in our great game’s history.
But we will ever see it again?
I don’t think so – not this year anyway.
That’s not saying he won’t finish as the No. 1 scorer in the game again, his average may just take a hit.
You don’t me need to tell you how influential he is in the ruck and around the ground but you may need to be told this influence appears to have been scaled up further than usual in shortened quarters last year.
Gawn spent longer on the ground, he’s better at performing under pressure and, given there was less time to affect the match, more players had minimal impact at the bottom-end than usual. It resulted in more scaling done at the top-end, and the Melbourne big man was always there.
In 2019, Gawn scored 150 or more in 19 per cent of his matches. Last year, it was 50 per cent.
Big scores – 140 or more – were up across the board, with 16 more recorded despite 90 less total games being played.
Again, while there may not be a repeat of the extraordinary stretch between rounds four and eight, which featured scores of 141, 163, 153, 185 and 157, he will still go big.
Especially with match-ups against Sean Darcy, Shane Mumford/Matthew Flynn, Rhys Stanley and Ben McEvoy/Jon Ceglar in the opening six rounds.
The Phantom’s Verdict: I’m tipping Gawn to still lead the competition but he may do it with an average closer to 130 – and that means a significant price fall. You’re getting the likely No. 1 scorer in his position and a go-to captain option. Without Preuss, maybe there isn’t better value.
Brodie Grundy (Coll) $648,200
And this guy is that value.
He played second fiddle to Gawn last year, but in the previous two seasons, the Collingwood big man was the No. 1 player in KFC SuperCoach.
Not just of all ruckmen. Grundy scored more points than anyone else, after posting KFC SuperCoach tons in 38 of his 44 matches.
His other six scores were 81, 84, 86, 99, 95 and 98.
Was he carrying an injury 2020? Was his form a direct reflection of the difficulties of hub life? Did the shorter quarters limit his ability as an accumulator?
Possibly yes to all of the above.
The 26-year-old is also as durable as the come, playing every home-and-away game in the past three seasons and missing just three matches since 2015.
The Phantom’s Verdict: Expect Grundy to meet Gawn in the middle at around the 130-point mark this year. And that makes the $100k difference very, very appealing.
THE CHALLENGERS
Reilly O’Brien (Adel) $570,800
In the 13th game of his career, in Round 13, 2019, O’Brien announced himself as a KFC SuperCoach ruckmen of the future, scoring a huge 181 points against the Tigers.
It was also the confirmation, he was Adelaide’s No. 1 big man, and that Sam Jacobs’ time was up.
He kicked off 2020 with 107 and 161 in the opening two rounds, before struggling with some inconsistency.
But, on the back of a strong finish – he averaged 119 in the final month of the year – O’Brien increased his KFC SuperCoach from 95 to 106.
He may be the sixth-ranked ruckman for hitouts-to-advantage but the 25-year-old finished with more tackles, contested marks and intercepts marks than Gawn and Grundy last year.
And he’s still only played 37 AFL games.
So can the young Crow seriously challenge the top two as his all-round game continues to develop?
The Phantom’s Verdict: Another spike is coming and he now comes right into the equation for those KFC SuperCoaches looking for an alternative to the big two. O’Brien doesn’t meet Gawn or Grundy until Round 10, either.
Tim English (WB) $551,200
Tim English is the next Dean Cox, the champion former West Coast Eagle who was just as dominant around the ground, with his ball-winning and foot skills, as he was in the ruck.
That was the statement made by many 12 months again, even earlier by some.
Yes, I was one of them.
And after seven rounds last year, there weren’t many arguing.
After a quiet opening two rounds, out-muscled by Brodie Grundy and then the Paddy Ryder-Rowan Marshall combination, English exploded, posting scores of 120, 145, 125, 105 and 204 in the next five matches.
His influence was then quelled around the ground and in the air for the best part of two months, before finishing strongly with a 126-point three-round average.
PREDICTED TEAMS: ANALYSIS ON EVERY CLUB’S BEST 22
Assessing his 2020 numbers per 100 minutes, English, on average, had more disposals, marks, intercept marks, goals and effective kicks than he did in 2019.
The 23-year-old’s hitout numbers were also up slightly, with English winning 5.4 hitouts-to-advantage per game – up from 5.1.
It’s an area he still falls behind in but the arrival of Stefan Martin as both big-bodied support, and as a mentor, will help, as will another pre-season.
Cox’s first big season, number-wise, was his fifth – and that’s where English is at in 2021.
The Phantom’s Verdict: He’s got a way to go, but that’s exciting for the Bulldogs and KFC SuperCoaches. It would still be brave call to start him in 2021, however, especially given his forward-heavy role in the practice match against the Hawks.
CAN HE MAINTAIN IT?
Nic Naitanui (WC) $593,700
Less matches, shorter quarters and scaling weighted more in-favour of high-impact acts. Was there a player more suited to KFC SuperCoach in 2020 than Naitanui?
No.
But, despite nine KFC SuperCoach tons – five of them in excess of 135 – the answer to the question of whether or not he can better his 2020 average of 110 and seriously challenge Grundy and Gawn is just as definitive.
No.
And, at the price, you would be picking him to do exactly that.
The Phantom’s Verdict: As much as I love watching him play, he’s not a point-of-difference I’d be banking on this year.
DOES HE STILL HAVE IT?
Todd Goldstein (NM) $601,700
In the three years following his dominant 2015 season, which saw him average 129 KFC SuperCoach points as the No. 1 scorer in the game, Goldstein fell, posting season averages of 108, 95 and 101.
Many wrote him off as legitimate challenger to the No. 1 ruck spot.
But after 112 in each of the past two seasons – to rank third behind Gawn and Grundy – the answer to the subhead is yes, he does.
The Phantom’s Verdict: But is it enough to start him? Not with Grundy just $47k away.
MID-PRICER GUIDE: THE VALUE ALTERNATIVES TO PREUSS
FORWARDS
On first look, the forward line in KFC SuperCoach this year looks stacked.
Patrick Dangerfield, Rowan Marshall and Josh Dunkley return to the pool, while Steele Sidebottom adds another high-end premium option to the forward mix.
But, really, there are only 10 players priced at more than $475k – there are 25 in defence - and now Marshall is injured.
So who is a lock?
*For this analysis, the price bracket has been extended to $460k.
THE LOCKS
Rowan Marshall (StK) $557,200, Ruck
There was a strong case to make Marshall your first picked – and the player to build your forward-line around.
Before the foot injury, he was a top-six lock with very handy dual-position status.
And he could have been picked on his scoring power alone.
In his breakout year of 2019, Marshall averaged 110 points per game, on the back of 14 KFC SuperCoach tons, six in excess of 120.
Then Paddy Ryder arrived at the Saints and Marshall posted scores of 92, 70 and 81 in the opening three games of last season alongside his new ruck partner.
Ryder missed the next two matches and Marshall posted back-to-back KFC SuperCoach tons.
But that’s not the end of the story.
Marshall adjusted to the new ruck-forward role – one he played so well in the VFL before exploding onto the scene at the top level – and began assertting his dominance in a slightly different way.
On average, and with the stats adjusted per 100 minutes, Marshall recorded more marks, contested marks and goals than he did in 2019.
His hitout numbers were down but Marshall gained more territory than any other ruckman in the competition and only Nic Naitanui recorded more inside-50s per game.
In the final 10 home-and-away games of the year, the 25-year-old booted nine goals, took 19 contested marks and averaged 112 KFC SuperCoach points.
Ryder played in nine of them.
The Phantom’s Verdict: The injury news is a big blow to KFC SuperCoaches, who were building their forward line around him - The Phantom included. Now, who do we trust?
THE NEXT BEST
Josh Dunkley (WB) $560,200
If you’ve been following premium week, you will know where The Phantom stands on the arrival of Adam Treloar at the Bulldogs – scroll down if you haven’t.
Am I tipping Dunkley to spend more time forward again in 2020? Yes.
Does that mean we should expect a similar KFC SuperCoach average to last year – and not that of his career-best season of 2019? Yes.
But will that still make him a top-six forward? Yes.
Those three questions just about sum up Dunkley in KFC SuperCoach in 2021.
The Bulldogs gun started slow as a forward in 2019, before exploding when moved back into the midfield where he averaged 128 points per game from Round 7.
But, to absolutely no one’s surprise in the KFC SuperCoach community, Dunkley was moved around again last year – attending just 22 per cent of centre bounces from Round 10 onwards - and missed six matches with a nasty ankle injury.
He only passed the 100-point mark in just three of the final eight games of the year after returning, but never dropped below 87.
The Phantom’s Verdict: Unless, by trying to leave the club for more midfield time, Dunkley has convinced coach Luke Beveridge to keep him in the middle, there might be some inconsistency in his role – and, in turn, his scoring. But it’s unlikely he averages less than last season – 104 – making him a near top-six certainty.
Patrick Dangerfield (Geel) $611,900
I feel uneasy leaving Dangerfield out of the top section.
This is the guy who has averaged 120, 132, 136, 122, 115 and 114 in the past six seasons.
And he’s available as a forward, again.
But he’s battling an ongoing groin issue, which restricted him last season, and he’s even made multiple trips to Adelaide to see renowned groin/hip expert Steve Saunders.
“If you lose Round 1 … there are still 21 games to go,” Dangerfield said in late January when asked about his chances against the Crows in the season opener.
But if you’ve watched the Brownlow Medallist over the years, you will know it takes a lot to keep him out of a game for premiership points.
I expect him to play and so do the Cats, revealing they are “very pleased” with his progress two weeks out from the AAMI Series.
But Dangerfield may spend most of his time inside-50 after he confirmed the injury ‘will definitely’ have an impact on his role early in the year.
The Phantom’s Verdict: It’s not the forward role I’m concerned about – he could take 5 contested marks and boot six goals against the Crows in Round 1 – but it’s the combination of that, the injury and the very limited pre-season. But, with Marshall off the list, maybe he’s still a better option than most of the others.
Dustin Martin (Rich) $541,600
Speaking of, the three-time Norm Smith Medallist has been a slow starter in KFC SuperCoach in recent years.
Martin has passed the 100-point mark against the Blues in Round 1 in the past two seasons before going on to post six-round averages of 88 and 89.
But when you prime yourself perfectly to deliver consistent, dominant performances on the big stage, who really cares?
We, the KFC SuperCoach community do. Well, everyone except Al Paton.
With Hawthorn and the Swans up after Carlton this year, will it happen again? It’s hard to say.
Regardless, he’s still likely to average 100 minimum and that’s what he’s priced at.
The Phantom’s Verdict: You’re unlikely to lose by picking him but there’s plenty to be lost if you leave him out and he does start with a bang. “He’s been pretty impressive, ‘Dusty’,” Tigers’ high performance chief Peter Burge said of Martin’s pre-season.
ROOKIE BIBLE: MORE THAN 60 CHEAPIE OPTIONS RATED
Steele Sidebottom (Coll) $588,000
Sidebottom is an interesting KFC SuperCoach prospect in 2021.
As a midfielder, he sat on the level just below the top tier, meaning he was rarely discussed as a serious starting option in the classic format.
But as a dual-position forward this year, it’s a different story.
Or is it?
Thanks to two big scores – 150 and 141 – the classy Magpie averaged 109 points from nine matches in 2020, the second-highest season average of his career.
But his raw numbers were very similar – some even down – to 2019, a year he averaged just 94 points per game.
Adjusting the stats per 100 minutes, Sidebottom won more of the ball in total and in a contest, increasing his contested possessions per game by 1.3 and his clearances by 0.7.
However, the 30-year-old was involved in less scoring chains (4.8 – down from 5), gained less territory (269 – down from 365), took less marks (4.1 – down from 5.8), sent the ball inside-50 on fewer occasions (3.4 – down from 3.5) and missed more targets by foot (48% kicking efficiency – down from 64%).
While the contested side of the game has always been weighted more heavily in KFC SuperCoach – and his increased inside role with no Adam Treloar will keep him above that 94-point mark – the scaling in those big games, with shorter quarters, may have slightly skewed last year’s average.
It also must be noted, Sidebottom left the Collingwood hub last year for family reasons – it wasn’t an easy year.
The Phantom’s Verdict: He’s still too good not to be a top-six forward but I think we can pick him up cheaper at some point.
CAN WE TRUST HIM?
Michael Walters (Freo) $531,100
No words needed here.
The Phantom’s Verdict: Don’t do it to yourself. Not to start with anyway.
NEXT GEN
Zak Butters (Port) $471,400
As a forward, the 20-year-old rated elite for effective disposals, kicking efficiency, intercept marks, contested possessions, groundball-gets, intercept possessions, score involvements and goal assists in just his second year in the competition.
He played majority of the year forward, but the ratings highlight just how much of an impact he had when pushing up through the midfield.
Butters increased his average from 60 to 87 after posting six KFC SuperCoach tons and four other scores of 80 or more from his 15 games.
And the Power only want Butters and fellow young star Connor Rozee to spend more time in the midfield going forward – especially if recruit Orazio Fantasia stays fit.
The Phantom’s Verdict: Would be a big call to start at the price but I am tipping another spike for Butters this year.
Shai Bolton (Rich) $462,400
The skillful Tiger was electric in his midfield stint during 2019.
Bolton, after spending most of the first 17 games of his career in the forward line, was pushed into the midfield in Round 16 and averaged 27 disposals, eight contested possessions, four clearances and 117 KFC SuperCoach points, while also booting three goals, in the next two matches.
But he returned to his role as a small-forward for the finals and was dropped after the Tigers loss to the Saints in Round 4 last year.
If there was a silver lining to Dion Prestia’s injury last year, however, it was Bolton’s return to the side – and the midfield – in Round 6.
From that point, the 22-year-old ranked second at the Tigers for score involvements, third for contested possessions and fifth for disposals. He finished with five KFC SuperCoach tons in the minor round and posted a career-high 135 points, on the back of 16 disposals, nine contested possessions and seven tackles, in the grand final win over the Cats.
The Phantom’s Verdict: In the top-six mix if he can find consistency through the midfield.
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Originally published as KFC SuperCoach 2021 ultimate premium guide: The top-price options to pick, consider and avoid in every position
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