James Harmes, Josh Dunkley, Trent Dumont among players who could be under the radar SuperCoach stars
How much can you trust end of season SuperCoach numbers? In the hunt for points of difference, we’ve found a host of players who finished 2018 with a bang. But are their big scores sustainable?
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How much can you trust end of season SuperCoach numbers?
That is the question coaches everywhere should be asking as the hunt for point of difference value ramps up.
Because, while the vast majority of SuperCoach teams feature the likes of Patrick Dangerfield, Patrick Cripps and Isaac Heeney, it could end up being your off Broadway selections who make or break your season.
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With only a month until Round 1, we’ve looked at some of the best under the radar selections who finished 2018 with a bang.
Angus Brayshaw MID $526,900
At Round 12 last year, Angus Brayshaw was anything but a SuperCoach stud.
After starting the season in the VFL, the former No. 3 draft pick had just 778 points to his name and was struggling to consistently pass 80.
But all that should be a distant memory given how he finished 2018.
Brayshaw’s final nine games were nothing short of outstanding, posting seven triple figure scores and lifting his overall season average to a career best 97.1.
In the second half of the season he averaged 108.3, which is a big enough sample to have him on your 2019 radar.
James Harmes MID $453,800
There is no love out there for Melbourne hard nut James Harmes, who is currently featuring in zero per cent of teams.
But given his final month of 2018, it might be time for a rethink.
Harmes finished last year like a SuperCoach stud, posting four consecutive 100 plus scores over the final month of the season.
He averaged 113.5 in that time. If he maintained that pace for the entire season, it would rank him in the league’s top 10 average scorers.
For those who are a little nervous about the four-game sample size, it is important to note that Harmes’ season average has gone up each year, which is encouraging.
Josh Dunkley FWD|MID $516,300
At first glance, paying more than $500K for Josh Dunkley might seem a big ask. But there are a couple of reasons to look very, very closely at this young Dog.
From 2017 to 2018, Dunkley’s average jumped from 60 to 95.1.
However, his final six weeks of last season is are cause for even more excitement.
From Round 18 onwards Dunkley averaged 127.1. If he maintained that pace for the entire season, he would have been in the top five average scorers in the competition.
Dunkley also carries dual position status, meaning you can swing him between your forward line and midfield.
He is currently in around 11 per cent of teams and is the perfect point of difference candidate.
Trent Dumont MID $452,800
When I first saw Trent Dumont at this price, I immediately kept on scrolling. I wasn’t the only one. He is currently in zero per cent of SuperCoach teams.
But there is a strong case to be made that Dumont might be a solid point of difference candidate.
The North Melbourne midfielder found his feet over the final five weeks of last season, averaging an impressive 113 in that time.
That run included scores of 132 against Brisbane and 162 against Adelaide.
But is that sustainable?
Champion Data ranks Dumont as the fifth best wingman in the competition and with the 6-6-6 format locked in, his skill set is about to become even more important.
WATCH OUT FOR
Not all point of difference selections end up winners. In fact, there are a few options who have us very nervous. Here are a few of the ones we are staying away from.
Dayne Zorko MID $520,200
It was a rollercoaster ride for everyone who had Dayne Zorko in their midfield last year.
Here are his averages broken down for the season:
Rounds 1-6: 65.6
Rounds 7-20: 115.3
Rounds 21-23: 71.6
So which Zorko will we see in 2019?
For everyone who was chasing Grand Final glory, it’s hard to forget those final three weeks.
Zorko’s average dropped by a whopping 15 points from 2017 to 2018. It is not a trend we like.
Tom Phillips MID $489,100
Through the first half of 2018, Tom Phillips was putting forward a solid case to be in the All Australian squad.
He had seven scores over 100 and during a six week period between Round six and 11, averaged 114.1.
However, the SuperCoach magic well and truly dropped off in the second half of the season.
Phillips broke triple figures only once and from Round 12 onwards averaged just 78.
Hitting 2019 with a whopping price tag of nearly $500K, Phillips is way too risky given how he finished the season.
With the addition of Beams, he may see even less midfield time this year.
Trent Cotchin MID $486,900
Captain Cotch’s SuperCoach average dropped significantly in 2018, falling from 101 to 89.
However, for anyone considering him as a bounce back candidate this year, be careful. The end of season numbers were even more concerning than that.
From Round 16 onwards, Cotchin averaged a worrying 58.8.
His closing price last season was just $372,400 while he has opened this year closer to $500,000.
Having a solid point of difference player is great but Cotchin isn’t it.
Originally published as James Harmes, Josh Dunkley, Trent Dumont among players who could be under the radar SuperCoach stars
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