Run Home: Where every team will finish after Round 23
Essendon’s loss to GWS put a massive dent in its finals hopes, but will it be terminal? See all the top-eight and top-four contenders and their likely finishing position.
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Just four rounds remain as the race to finals heats up.
With spots in the top four and top eight still up for grabs, we’ve taken a look at every finals contender’s run home – and where they might finish.
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1. WESTERN BULLDOGS
Record: 14-4, 139.9%
R20: Adelaide (W)
R21: Essendon (W)
R22: Hawthorn (W)
R23: Port Adelaide (W)
WE SAY: It’s been cat and mouse at the top of the ladder in recent weeks, but for now the Bulldogs have regained top spot after toppling Melbourne in their top-of-the-table clash on Saturday night. Expect the Dogs to sweep aside their next three opponents and they should also be too strong for Port Adelaide in the final round, which means a minor premiership is theirs to lose. Could captain Marcus Bontempelli do a Dustin Martin and win a Brownlow Medal, Norm Smith Medal and premiership medal this year?
PREDICTED FINISH: 1st
TAB PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $4.25
2. GEELONG
Record: 14-4, 132.1%
R20: North Melbourne (W)
R21: GWS Giants (W)
R22: St Kilda (W)
R23: Melbourne (W)
WE SAY: The new outright premiership favourites, the Cats have climbed into the top two for the first time this season and look like staying there if they can knock off fellow top-four side Melbourne in a blockbuster clash in Round 23. Geelong’s defensive strength was again on show on Sunday as they strangled reigning premier Richmond and then hit the scoreboard themselves. The Tigers were kept to three goals across the first three quarters. As they say, defence wins premierships.
PREDICTED FINISH: 2nd
TAB PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $4
3. MELBOURNE
Record: 13-1-4, 127.8%
R20: Gold Coast Suns (W)
R21: West Coast (L)
R22: Adelaide (W)
R23: Geelong (L)
WE SAY: Having sat in the top two since Round 4, the Demons lost their spot as they slipped to third with their loss to the Western Bulldogs on Saturday night. The past six weeks has been a worry for the Demons, who have just two wins and a draw over that period. Expect Melbourne to be too good for the Suns this week, but West Coast is scheduled to be an away game in Round 21 and on current form you’d have to pick the Eagles. Then comes premiership favourite Geelong in Round 23 – another huge challenge. Lose those two games and they could finish as low as sixth. After such a strong first half of the season, the Demons have the wobbles.
PREDICTED FINISH: 6th
TAB PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $5.50
4. PORT ADELAIDE
Record: 13-5, 121%
R20: GWS Giants (W)
R21: Adelaide (W)
R22: Carlton (W)
R23: Western Bulldogs (L)
WE SAY: After a shaky start, the Power did what they needed to do against Collingwood and have held their spot in the top four for another week. But despite being one game clear of fifth-placed Brisbane, they are no top-four lock. Expect Port to win its next three, but don’t count on a win over the ladder-leading Bulldogs in the final round given the Power’s poor 1-5 record against fellow top-eight sides. Lose that game and there’s a good chance the Power finish fifth.
PREDICTED FINISH: 5th
TAB PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $9
5. BRISBANE LIONS
Record: 12-6, 127.3%
R20: Hawthorn (W)
R21: Fremantle (W)
R22: Collingwood (W)
R23: West Coast Eagles (W)
WE SAY: The Lions flexed their collective muscle in the second half against the Gold Coast Suns on Saturday night, overcoming 29-point deficit during the second term to score a 49-point win after coach Chris Fagan put it on his forwards to lift at halftime. Brisbane’s form line has not been great, with Fagan’s side having lost its two previous matches against Richmond and St Kilda. However, you’d back them to find some form against a trio of struggling sides in the next three weeks and a Round 23 clash against the Eagles is currently scheduled at the Gabba, which might give the Lions the edge and see them secure a top-four spot.
PREDICTED FINISH: 3rd
TAB PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $7
6. SYDNEY
Record: 12-6, 118.8%
R20: Essendon (W)
R21: St Kilda (W)
R22: North Melbourne (W)
R23: Gold Coast (W)
WE SAY: The ‘Young Bloods’ are riding a big wave of momentum as they power towards a return to finals for the first time since 2018. Sydney is one of the form teams of the competition, having won its past four matches including big triumphs against fellow top-eight sides West Coast, Western Bulldogs and GWS. The highest-ranked team they face in the run home now is ninth-placed Essendon. Even without Lance Franklin this week, you have to think the young Swans enter finals with eight straight wins under their belt – and fourth spot on the ladder might come down to percentage between them and Port Adelaide.
PREDICTED FINISH: 4th
TAB PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $10
7. WEST COAST
Record: 10-8, 98.6%
R20: Collingwood (W)
R21: Melbourne (W)
R22: Fremantle (W)
R23: Brisbane (L)
WE SAY: Things weren’t looking good for the Eagles a few weeks ago after a run of three-straight losses to the Bulldogs, Sydney and North Melbourne. But Adam Simpson’s side has since rebounded to win its past two matches and has got its forward line functioning once again. The Round 21 game against Melbourne is currently scheduled at Optus Stadium, which might give the Eagles the edge. West Coast should also chalk up wins against a struggling Collingwood and a depleted Fremantle, but a clash with Brisbane at the Gabba in Round 23 looms as more tricky.
PREDICTED FINISH: 7th
TAB PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $26
8. GWS GIANTS
Record: 8-1-9, 96.6%
R20: Port Adelaide (L)
R21: Geelong (L)
R22: Richmond (L)
R23: Carlton (W)
WE SAY: The Giants are in the top eight for now, but probably won’t be there for long. Their win over Essendon on Sunday was gutsy, but it’s hard to see them winning either of their next two matches against top-four sides Port Adelaide and Geelong. Even if GWS was to win its last two games, it likely wouldn’t be enough to secure a September berth, although the extra two points from the draw does help.
PREDICTED FINISH: 11th
TAB PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $61
9. ESSENDON
Record: 8-10, 103.4%
R20: Sydney Swans (L)
R21: Western Bulldogs (L)
R22: Gold Coast Suns (W)
R23: Collingwood (W)
WE SAY: The Bombers have exceeded the expectations of most footy pundits this year, but essentially bombed out of the finals race with their 13-point loss to GWS on Sunday. They would need to win three – if not four – of their final four games to make the cut now. With games against top-six sides Sydney and Western Bulldogs to come over the next two weeks, it’s hard to see that happening. As coach Ben Rutten conceded on Sunday, Essendon wouldn’t get too far in finals the way they are playing at the moment anyway, even if they did make it.
PREDICTED FINISH: 9th
TAB PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $61
10. RICHMOND
Record: 8-10, 98.2%
R20: Fremantle (W)
R21: North Melbourne (W)
R22: GWS (W)
R23: Hawthorn (W)
WE SAY: Many Richmond fans might have given up hope this year after Sunday’s horror loss to Geelong. However, coach Damien Hardwick says his team will “keep pushing up the mountain” while it remains a finals chance – which it does. A favourable run home awaits, starting with a clash against a depleted Fremantle at Optus Stadium on Sunday that you’d pencil in Richmond to win, especially with some reinforcements expected back from injury in Dion Prestia and Nathan Broad. You’d also pencil in wins over North Melbourne and Hawthorn, which means a finals berth could come down to beating GWS in Round 22. It’s hard to see the reining premiers doing too much damage in finals without Dustin Martin this year, but they might well get there.
PREDICTED FINISH: 8th
TAB PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $34
11. FREMANTLE
Record: 8-10, 90.3%
R20: Richmond (L)
R21: Brisbane Lions (L)
R22: West Coast Eagles (L)
R23: St Kilda (L)
WE SAY: The Dockers won’t be playing finals this year, after a 40-point loss to Sydney on Sunday was further soured by likely season ending injuries to stars Nat Fyfe (shoulder) and Michael Walters (hamstring). The Dockers’ lowly percentage also took another hit in the loss and there are no easy games in the run home, including two top-eight opponents in Brisbane and West Coast. Better luck next year, Fremantle.
PREDICTED FINISH: 12th
TAB PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $251
12. ST KILDA
Record: 8-10, 86.9%
R20: Carlton (W)
R21: Sydney (L)
R22: Geelong (L)
R23: Fremantle (W)
WE SAY: The Saints blew their chance to stay in the finals race with an eight-point loss to West Coast on Saturday. They have the fifth-worst percentage in the competition and still have two tough games to come against top-six sides Sydney and Geelong. They would need to pull one out of the hat against one of those sides – as well as beat Carlton and Fremantle – to be any chance of sneaking into September. Even in they won three more games, St Kilda would need Richmond, Essendon and GWS to all lose at least two of their final four games to make the cut.
PREDICTED FINISH: 10th
TAB PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $101
13. CARLTON
Record: 7-11, 91.9%
R20: St Kilda (L)
R21: Gold Coast Suns (L)
R22: Port Adelaide (L)
R23: GWS Giants (L)
WE SAY: It would take a miracle, but mathematically the Blues are still a fighting chance to play finals. Based on current form after a 39-point loss to bottom-of-the-ladder North Melbourne, you could not pencil them in for any more wins. However, if the Blues did win all four games to get themselves to 11 wins, they would be a strong chance of snagging eighth spot. You can dream, Carlton fans.
PREDICTED FINISH: 13th
TAB PREMIERSHIP ODDS: $501
FINAL PREDICTED LADDER AFTER ROUND 23
1. Western Bulldogs (72 points)
2. Geelong (72 points)
3. Brisbane (64 points)
4. Sydney (64 points)
5. Port Adelaide (64 points)
6. Melbourne (62 points)
7. West Coast (52 points)
8. Richmond (48 points)
------------------------------
9. Essendon (40 points)
10. St Kilda (40 points)
11. GWS (38 points)
12. Fremantle (32 points)
13. Carlton (28 points)
14. Gold Coast (28 points)
15. Adelaide (24 points)
16. Hawthorn (22 points)
17. North Melbourne (22 points)
18. Collingwood (20 points)
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