Run Home: The key clashes which will seal September fates
This weekend will go a long way to dictating the shape of the top eight – so which way will the dominoes fall? We unpack every game left in season 2025 to see who makes the September cut.
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There’s only seven weeks to go in the 2025 AFL season and some big eight-point games await this weekend as finals contenders jostle for top-eight and top-four spots.
Here’s our predictions on how the rest of the home-and-away campaign will pan out from here — and which teams will sit where on the ladder at the conclusion of round 24.
DO YOUR OWN PREDICTED LADDER THEN SCROLL DOWN TO SEE OURS
1. COLLINGWOOD
Played: 15, Won: 14, Lost: 2, Percentage: 139
The Magpies continue to sit 10 points clear at the top of the ladder after comfortably beating their arch rivals Carlton on Friday night.
This weekend’s game against the Suns will be the second-last time they travel interstate for the remainder of the home-and-away season, with the side not leaving their own beds for a month after that.
Veteran defender Jeremy Howe was tactically subbed out of the Blues’ game with more than a quarter to play.
If the Pies kill games early like they have in the past, expect coach Craig McRae to pull a few more tactical leavers to manage the veterans in the run to finals.
2. BRISBANE LIONS
Played: 16, Won: 11, Drawn: 1, Lost: 4, Percentage: 114.7
The Lions have a quick five-day turnaround this Thursday night and will need to be sharp against a Blues side fighting for their coach’s survival.
Chris Fagan’s side is one four clubs fighting for a top-two finish at the end of the season and four of the Lions’ remaining seven games are against fellow top-eight sides.
Their Round 21 game at the MCG against ladder leaders Collingwood will be one of the biggest games of the year and potentially be a Grand Final rehearsal.
3. ADELAIDE
Played: 16, Won: 11, Drawn: 0, Lost: 5, Percentage: 138.2
The buzz around West Lakes is something the club hasn’t seen since 2017 — the last time Adelaide featured in finals.
After banking the four points at home against Melbourne on Sunday, the Crows will continue to push their case for a top-four finish.
Every game in the next month is a 50-50 one for Matthew Nicks’ side, including in round 20 where the Power will be out to spoil the party in Ken Hinkley’s final Showdown.
However, the Crows have gone 8-1 at Adelaide Oval this season and three of the next four games are at the venue.
Exciting forward Josh Rachele has avoided an ACL tear after an awkward landing on Sunday, but could still miss some weeks with the knee issue.
4. GEELONG
Played: 16, Won: 11, Lost: 5, Percentage: 132.3
The Cats cruised their way to victory over the Tigers at the Cattery on Saturday, but travelling to Engie Stadium against the Giants is a different challenge.
Don’t forget that GWS went down to GMHBA Stadium and knocked off Geelong by four points back in round 9 – being one of only two teams to beat the Cats on their home turf this year.
Chris Scott’s side are the envy of most supporter bases each year and another top-four finish will only add to the jealousy.
With five of their last seven games in Victoria and their last six games all coming against bottom-nine opponents, the Cats look every chance to claim a top-two spot and will be a formidable force once again this September.
5. HAWTHORN
Played: 16, Won: 11, Lost: 5, Percentage: 118.9
The Hawks are the type of side you don’t want to play at the pointy-end of the season.
But it’s not an easy run home, with tough road trips against fellow top-nine opponents Fremantle, Adelaide and Brisbane, plus a clash with the ladder-leading Collingwood.
That means a top-four finish looks unlikely — and a top-eight finish isn’t even guaranteed.
All eyes will be on Saturday night’s clash with the Dockers, which is a genuine eight-point game.
Win that, and Sam Mitchell’s side will be in a much safer spot.
The Hawks then face the Power in round 19 at UTAS Stadium, a fortress where they have been undefeated at for over two years.
6. WESTERN BULLDOGS
Played: 16, Won: 10, Lost: 6, Percentage: 133.2
Under Luke Beveridge the Bulldogs have staggeringly never made the top-four, but could this be the year?
The good news for the Dogs is they only travel interstate once across their final seven games, which includes four home fixtures at Marvel Stadium.
They will need a scalp in at least one of their next two games against top-four sides Adelaide and Brisbane if they really want to push their case for a double chance.
Games against GWS and Fremantle in the final month will also be key.
But the Bulldogs currently hold the fourth-best percentage of any side, which will help their top-four cause.
7. GOLD COAST
Played: 15, Won: 10, Lost: 5, Percentage: 122.5
Historically the Suns tend to slow down in the back end of the season, but Damien Hardwick’s side isn’t full of kids anymore.
With five home games at People’s First Stadium remaining, it’s all on the players if the club is to play in September for the first time in its history.
We’ll all find out whether the Suns are contenders or pretenders in the next three weeks, as they face top-four teams Collingwood, Adelaide and Brisbane.
But even if they don’t pinch one of those, they should still make the finals cut given four of their final five games are against bottom-nine sides.
8. GWS GIANTS
Played: 16, Won: 10, Lost: 6, Percentage: 112
The Giants in the past three weeks have produced the brand of football they were renowned for in 2024.
On the back of big wins against Brisbane, Gold Coast and West Coast, GWS is firmly back in the hunt for a top-eight finish.
Geelong this week is the ultimate test as to whether the recent form is fair dinkum or not.
But the Giants did beat the Cats on their home turf at GMHBA Stadium back in round 9, so they will give themselves every chance.
Matches against Sydney, Western Bulldogs and Gold Coast will also be key to the Giants’ September hopes.
9. FREMANTLE
Played: 16, Won: 10, Lost: 6, Percentage: 108.8
After winning six in a row, the Dockers let one slip against the Swans and find themselves outside the top-eight — and with a battle ahead.
The big E-word — ‘expectation’ — is something the Dockers will need to cope with if they are to make finals in Justin Longmuir’s sixth season in charge.
Losing the last four games of last season to miss finals, the Dockers will need to keep taking scalps.
Look no further to Hawthorn in front of the Purple Haze on Saturday night.
Win that and the Dockers’ September hopes will be back in their own hands heading into the final six weeks.
But lose to the Hawks and there will be some real trouble.
10. SYDNEY SWANS
Played: 16, Won: 7, Lost: 9, Percentage: 93.4
The Swans’ season may be all but over, but the incentive to affect the course of the season for other sides is still there.
Injuries to Joel Amartey and Tom Papley will sour the weekend’s win over Fremantle, but finishing the season well will help give the club momentum into the new year.
The Swans have a winnable month ahead, only facing one top-eight side in the Giants.
First-year coach Dean Cox will now set his focus on what his team line-up will look like for 2026.
11. PORT ADELAIDE
Played: 16, Won: 7, Lost: 9, Percentage: 87.6
Despite Ken Hinkley’s antics in the coaches box, the Power still have plenty to play for in the remaining seven games.
Josh Carr will be already looking for someone to fill Sam Powell-Pepper’s role in the forward line next year, with scans confirming a second ACL tear for the 27-year-old.
It’s been speculated all season, but will we see Carr take the reins before the season ends or will the club keep their word and stick with Hinkley until the end?
12. CARLTON
Played: 16, Won: 6, Lost: 10, Percentage: 96.1
You know it’s a bad sign when fans are walking out of the MCG and straight to Jolimont Station at three-quarter-time.
For the Blues, finals are the furtherest thing from coach Michael Voss’ mind as he again asks his leaders to stand up after no response in three poor losses on the trot.
On Thursday night Carlton faces second-placed Brisbane under the roof at Marvel Stadium, where it would take a monumental turnaround to return to the winners’ board.
Voss’ side will still be without star Sam Walsh with a foot injury and former Coleman Medalist Harry McKay with a knee injury, making the task even more tricky.
13. ESSENDON
Played: 15, Won: 6, Lost: 9, Percentage: 76.4
The Bombers were competitive for three quarters against Gold Coast on Saturday, before the Suns powered home with a six-goal-to-none final term.
But Brad Scott’s side are favourites to bring up their seventh win of the season against a Tigers team low on confidence, as some promising Baby Bombers continue to impress.
Although the injuries have hit hard at Tullamarine, Archer May kicking three goals in three minutes and small-forward dynamo Issac Kako earning a Rising Star nomination this week would excite Bombers fans.
Games against the Giants, Dogs, Swans and Cats in the run home will be great learning curves for young players finding their feet at AFL level.
14. MELBOURNE
Played: 16, Won: 5, Lost: 16, Percentage: 86.7
Where are the Dees at?
We’ll find out a lot in their last seven games of the season.
They face four bottom-eight sides in the next month, before tackling finals contenders in their last three games of the home-and-away campaign.
With 14 premiership players having played on the weekend — a lot of those on long-term deals — Dees fans should expect their side to be competitive for the remainder of the season.
15. ST KILDA
Played: 16, Won: 5, Lost: 11, Percentage: 85.7
The inefficient Saints cost themselves a chance at securing four-points on Saturday night as they fell to Hawthorn by 20 points despite registering the same number of scoring shots.
But an impressive pack mark coming in from the side by talented third-game high-flyer Ailx Tauru was worth walking through the turnstiles for.
St Kilda only plays two top-eight sides in their last seven games and they only travels one more time to Engie Stadium in Round 24.
That said, the Swans, Melbourne and North Melbourne have all found a bit of form in the second half of the year so won’t be easy opponents.
16. NORTH MELBOURNE
Played: 16, Won: 4, Drawn: 1, Lost: 11, Percentage: 77.3
The Kangaroos were quite competitive for two-and-a-half quarters in their centenary game against the Western Bulldogs last Thursday night, but ultimately fell 49 points short of a superior side.
Off a 10-day break, this Sunday’s clash with the Demons will be intriguing.
North Melbourne beat up Melbourne by 59 points when the sides met in round 2, powering home in the final quarter.
Can they do it again?
Who knows, given how inconsistent the Roos have been this year.
However, Alastair Clarkson’s side should at least be toppling St Kilda and Richmond in the final six weeks.
Six wins would make for the club’s best season since 2019, in what would be a small step forward.
17. RICHMOND
Played: 16, Won: 3, Lost: 13, Percentage: 63
It’s been a tough watch for Tigers fans this year and looks like being a long final seven weeks.
Richmond managed just seven goals in a 72-point loss to Geelong on Saturday, in the first of five games without suspended key forward Tom Lynch.
No. 1 draft pick Sam Lalor’s latest hamstring injury — putting him out for the rest of the season — was another blow.
But can Richmond find a spark in warrior Nick Vlastuin’s milestone 250th game this weekend?
The possible inclusion of a ninth debutant in 2024 first-round draft pick Taj Hotton could help, after he impressed with 24 disposals and a goal in his third VFL game on the weekend. However, the Tigers fell to Essendon by 23 points when the sides last met in round 11.
18. WEST COAST
Played: 16, Won: 1, Lost: 15, Percentage: 63.9
Another week, another heavy loss for the Eagles. Andrew McQualter’s side fell 59 points short of GWS on its home turf at Perth Stadium on Friday night, managing just 12 scoring shots for the game.
Port Adelaide will be a tough ask away this week, with West Coast having not beaten the Power since 2021.
But the Eagles should enter a Round 19 game against Richmond as favourites to secure a second — and potentially final — win of the season ahead of a difficult last five weeks.
Originally published as Run Home: The key clashes which will seal September fates
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