Nathan Buckley leads call for change as stats reveal evolution of Brownlow Medal voting
Patrick Cripps’ incredible 45-vote tally has prompted calls for Brownlow Medal voting to be changed. We take you inside the evolution which led to a night where the record was shattered.
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Remember when 20 votes was enough to win the Brownlow Medal?
It was less than two decades ago that Ben Cousins trumped teammate Daniel Kerr by one vote, polling 20 to become the 2005 Brownlow medallist.
Now, 20 votes doesn’t even guarantee players a top-10 finish.
The addition of an extra game to the AFL fixture has no doubt contributed to a surge in vote tallies in recent years, but it is not the lone factor in explaining why records are being shattered on the AFL’s night of nights.
While Cripps eclipsed Dustin Martin’s previous record of 36 votes by nine, records show the votes tally needed to finish in the top-10 — or contend for the medal — has been rising since 2010.
Incredibly, Jai Newcombe’s tally of 24 votes this season would have won five of the counts from 2000-2008.
The Hawks midfield bull finished 10th in the 2024 count, 21 votes behind winner Patrick Cripps.
Graham Moss won the 1976 Brownlow with 48 votes, when players could earn up to six votes per match.
— Daniel Cherny (@DanielCherny) September 23, 2024
Cripps got 45 in 3-2-1. Silliness.
“I thought if things went my way, I could nudge 40. I’ll definitely take 45. That was a nice end to it,” Cripps told SEN on Tuesday.
“When you get 45, you don’t miss out too much. I reckon everything went my way. It was a special count.”
Of the 14 players who have topped the count with 30 or more votes during the 3-2-1 era, 11 have been in the last 15 years.
The others were Des Fothergill and Herbie Matthews in 1940, Greg Williams in 1994 and Robert Harvey in 1998.
Graham Teasdale (59 votes, 1977) and Graham Moss (48 votes, 1976) polled huge numbers in the two-year period where both umpires supplied votes.
Former Adelaide and Geelong forward Josh Jenkins said a player polling 45 votes — the equivalent of 15 best-on-grounds — was “nonsense”.
North Melbourne premiership player Corey McKernan said: “Can we fathom the votes Leigh Matthews would get today for his 1977 season based on how umpires clearly vote? 658 possessions … 91 goals”.
To put the extraordinary nature of the 2024 count into context, Nick Daicos (18 games) polled in double the matches Adam Cooney did when he won the medal in 2008.
The percentage of three-vote games being awarded to the AFL’s premier players offers one explanation behind the recent jump in winning tallies.
In 2002, when Nathan Buckley, Mark Ricciuto and Adam Goodes shared the Brownlow, Buckley and Goodes were only adjudged best afield twice.
On Tuesday, Buckley said it was time to “shift the focus” to awards voted by coaches, rather than the umpires.
“It’s pretty hard to look over or look past the history of the Brownlow and what it has meant for this league over a long period of time.
“Patrick Cripps is a worthy winner of the Brownlow, but I think the coaches — who does the voting — needs to shift in some way.”
Buckley said missing out on an expected three-vote match had become “fatal” for a contender.
The average three-vote games tally for Brownlow victors has climbed from 4.7 from 2000-2004 to 8.7 since 2015 (or 26 votes).
The simple reasoning is that the addition of Gather Round — and a 23rd game — is to blame for the voting explosion.
But in reality, the trend started long before the AFL added an extra game to the calendar.
The Brownlow winners from 2010-2014 achieved average votes of 29.6, up almost four votes from the previous five-year cycle.
Then from 2015-2019, the number of games winners polled in rose from 6.2 (2010-2014) to 8.8.
Is 45 votes as good as it gets, or will Harry Sheezel, Harley Reid, Daicos and the next crop of stars push Cripps’ unbelievable record?
The way the Brownlow count has been trending in the past 15 years, it would take a brave person to bet against them.
Originally published as Nathan Buckley leads call for change as stats reveal evolution of Brownlow Medal voting
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