Moneyball: All the trade, draft and contract news around the AFL
Harley Reid has narrowed down his future options. Plus the struggling club likely to lodge a priority pick request and the latest on Ryley Sanders and Colby McKercher in Moneyball.
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West Coast is certain to be denied a first-round draft selection when it lodges a priority pick request but could still be granted a range of measures to fast-track its list build.
The Eagles have not made a formal decision on whether to ask for an assistance package, keen to improve their playing fortunes this year despite a 0-8 start to the season.
But if they continue their current trajectory the club’s board and administration is expected to put in a request that might help their later draft hand or desire to secure a trio of clutch of NGA Indigenous talents.
Since the start of the 2022 season the Eagles have 10 wins and 68 losses and at best they might win a handful of games this season.
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The spectre of their premiership in 2018 is a clear disincentive for the AFL, with North Melbourne, Essendon and Adelaide having not won a final since then and the Gold Coast never having played finals.
Gold Coast is the last team to be handed a pre-draft priority pick – it secured Matt Rowell and Noah Anderson with the 2019 national draft’s first two selections – but those days are officially over.
West Coast already has two first-round picks (their own and the Hawks first-rounder) and it will likely secure a third first-rounder from free agency compensation if Oscar Allen departs as expected.
But clubs have in recent years found meaningful ways to secure assistance for continued underperformance over multiple years.
The Eagles could ask for an end-of-first-round selection or multiple end-of-second-round picks or also request extra Category B rookie spots.
They currently have Indigenous talent Malakai Champion and Coen Livingstone taking up their Category B rookie spot.
They could request extra rookie spots or Category B rookie spots if one of the NGA prospects that are draft-eligible are not taken in the national draft.
The Eagles have multiple NGA prospects linked to them this year including Wes Walley, Darcy Montgomery and Koby Evans.
All have real talent but it is too early to know where they will fall in the draft order.
The Eagles are aware of the size of their list build but are also prepared to be inventive by using every lever in their arsenal to secure talent.
The Eagles have only two top 10 picks on their list – Harley Reid and Reuben Ginbey – while Gold Coast, Essendon and North Melbourne all have 10 players drafted or traded in who were initially top 10 picks.
But Hawthorn has surged up the ladder with only four top 10 picks and has made good from free agency (Karl Amon, Josh Battle), the mid-season draft (Jai Newcombe) and smart trades (Massimo D’Ambrosio, Mabior Chol, Lloyd Meek).
The Eagles board would eventually have to green-light a draft assistance package, which would then be put to the AFL executive with a personal submission from Eagles bosses.
The AFL Commission would then consider any draft assistance.
Eagles Head of Football John Worsfold said on the weekend the priority pick had not been formally discussed, but there is no doubt the club has had informal conversations about what a submission would look like.
“We haven’t discussed that yet. It’s not something that needs to be discussed right now,” he said.
“There is plenty of time for us to consider where that sits. I probably need to spend a bit more time about how the decision is made or what we need to present if we elect to but we haven’t got to that point yet.”
North Melbourne was given a future second and third-rounders it traded for Darcy Tucker and Griffin Logue in 2022 as well as two additional rookie spots.
The Roos were then awarded three end-of-first-round picks at the end of 2023 they could trade for established talent.
Carlton and Gold Coast asked for priority picks in 2018 after the Blues had won seven games or less for five straight years and the Suns six games or less for four seasons.
The Blues secured access to two-state league players and the Suns three state-league players.
The Suns secured state leaguers Sam Collins, Chris Burgess, Josh Corbett while the Blues secured Mitch McGovern after trading the rights to SANFL players Shane McAdam and got pick 43 after trading the rights to Nathan Kreuger to the Cats.
WILL YOUNG GUNS RESIST LURE OF HOME?
Tasmanian top-10 picks Colby McKercher and Ryley Sanders are open to signing short-term contract extensions but their clubs will wait to try to convince them they should sign on past the introduction of the AFL’s newest team.
Western Bulldog Sanders and North Melbourne’s pacy midfielder McKercher are both contracted to 2026, a year short of the Devils’ introduction in 2028.
Signing them for another season or two would be smart business because it would give them maximum leverage for their next deal as the Devils enter the league.
Both are happy at their clubs and not keen to rush home to Tasmania so the Roos and Dogs are happy to sit tight for now, hoping they might lock them in on long-term extensions before their deals expire in 2026.
A handful of first-round picks have already re-signed from the 2023 national draft, which was the first draft to have mandated three-year deals.
But the market for top 10 picks from that draft is around $700,000 for the fourth season given so many of them are playing for meagre wages compared to their output.
Top 10 picks once signed early two-year extensions that put them on $450,000-$500,000 in their third and fourth seasons but recent pay rises plus the fact their third season wage is mandatory means the fourth season is now more lucrative.
23-TEAM VFL ON HORIZON
Tasmania has confirmed it is intent on entering an expanded VFL next year that could number 23 teams given the impending St Kilda-Sandringham split.
The Devils on Monday hired Pies recruiter Derek Hine and AFLW recruiting guru Todd Patterson to build their AFL list but the first priority is bringing in a VFL team.
The AFL is already under pressure to improve the continuity of its 21-team VFL competition given three club byes and a state league bye with calls for an overhaul.
Bringing in an extra St Kilda stand-alone team and Tasmania will mean the potential for two conferences.
Tasmania Devils CEO Brendon Gale told this masthead on Tuesday there was no going back now, with the AFL aware of plans for the 2027 VFL side.
“We think it’s important not just from the list build and forming junior pathways but it’s also important to build out our off field administration. It is the missing piece in the Tasmanian puzzle. There is a gap there in the pathway and it’s really important for a whole range of reasons so we are working really hard to pursue it.
“With the appointment of Derek and Todd it’s our most immediate need to look at the VFL list strategy. There are some Tasmanian players in state leagues in SA and WA who will now have the opportunity to come back.”
The South Australian clubs have been placated by the AFL after concerns over their SANFL teams while Fremantle is also keen to continue its Peel Thunder alignment in the WAFL.
The proud stand-alone clubs in the VFL are a tradition but after five rounds while the powerful Southport Sharks are 4-1, the Northern Bullants are 0-5, Port Melbourne is 1-4 and Coburg 2-3.
So it is a significant challenge for the AFL to fund the best Victorian second-tier competition that remains even.
An incredible 21 players have been taken from the VFL in the past 18 months for national drafts, rookie drafts and summer rookie lists.
HARLEY’S CALL
Harley Reid will delay any decision on his contract until later in the season even as the Eagles have genuine optimism that he is keen to stay at the club.
The Eagles believe he has established a strong relationship with coach Andrew McQualter and has enjoyed the senior influx of players including Liam Baker and Jack Graham.
They are optimistic that he might end up signing one of the three or five-year deals they presented to his management last month.
But rival clubs still believe he is strongly considering a return home this year, and he will hold off on a decision until much later in the season.
While a one-year deal worth as much as $2 million would allow him financial security without pledging his long-term future he will either move on or sign up on a three or five-year deal.
He has plenty of time to consider all options and will use it, in no hurry to commit despite Worsfold’s public stance.
Worsfold said across the weekend the club and his management were working on clauses in the multimillion-dollar contract but was sure Reid wanted to stay.
“There is no word he’s not ready to commit. We have just got to get the contract looking the way it should look,” he said.
“When we talk about these types of contacts for a player like Harley Reid they are very complicated. There are a lot of facets to them and if you have ever been in a negotiation of a fairly complicated contract there is a lot of going backwards and forwards on how things are achieved. That is why its ongoing
“We are very confident he’s committed to the footy club and at some point we will sort the contract out and look forward to Harley being a long term player.”
“I can’t talk on behalf of Harley but I would expect for a lot of players its important to take into consideration (the premiership window).
I feel with players who moved to our club last season – Jack Graham and Liam Baker and Matt Owies _ they didn’t come over here to pad out time, they came to help the club climb the ladder. So we see Harley as being part of that group going forward.”
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