AFL expert Mick McGuane looks at the player at your club who has been a big tick and the one who needs to lift
Tom Jonas has made a poor start to 2023, so much so that opposition teams are using him to gain an advantage. Mick McGuane has the analysis.
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Three weeks into the season, footy analyst Mick McGuane has run an eye over every team and picked out the players who have exceeded expectations so far and those who haven’t quite delivered.
He’s given a ‘Big Tick’ to a host of players across the competition — young and old — whose stocks have risen this year.
But he’s also put the ‘Needs to Lift’ tag on some high-profile players who have plenty of room for improvement.
ADELAIDE
Big Tick: Josh Rachele
He burst onto the scene as a forward last year but I’ve loved the evolution of Rachele this season, who is spending time through the midfield. He has an appetite to chase and tackle and is still hitting the scoreboard with six goals so far. With the skills and decision making he possesses, he can do maximum damage going forward for the Crows. Rachele will be a special midfielder in time.
Needs to Lift: Sam Berry
You can’t question the hard edge and defensive intent that Berry brings. He’s laid 15 tackles across the first three games. But there is something else you also need to do as a midfielder — win the footy. Berry’s average disposals have dropped from 17.6 last season to 9.3 this season. He’s not hunting the ball like he was last year, which is fixable with an effort and attitude shift.
BRISBANE LIONS
Big Tick: Harris Andrews
The key defender is back to his menacing best, controlling the air through contested marks or spoiling aggressively. He leads from the front for the Lions, drives high standards and brings controlled aggression. Andrews has a traffic cop influence with his ‘tell and yell’ approach to organise his fellow teammates up the ground. Averaging 3.3 marks and 7.3 spoils a game, he’s in All-Australian form.
Needs to Lift: Hugh McCluggage
Has the recruitment of Josh Dunkley challenged the balance of the Lions’ midfield group? McCluggage played only 11 per cent on a wing last year, but has spent 38 per cent of his time there over the first three weeks due to an onball squeeze. Moved away from his best position, his average disposals have dropped from 24.7 to 17.7 per game. Keeping width and shape on a wing is a challenge for McCluggage, given he is a ball hunter. It is a situation coach Chris Fagan will be keeping a close eye on.
CARLTON
Big Tick: Tom De Koning
He has been given significant opportunity this year and with the more games he plays as a ruckman and pinch-hit forward, the more consistency we should see. A lot of clubs are circling the out-of-contract De Koning, but he needs to keep his focus on finding improvement each week. He is covering the ground better this year and if he can keep pushing forward he will challenge opposition ruckmen with his strong aerial abilities.
Needs to Lift: Harry McKay
The key forward has improved his contested marks to three a game this year, but his confidence when kicking for goal looks shot. McKay has only kicked 2.4 so far, for an overall goalkicking accuracy of 25 per cent. That is a major issue which needs fixing. The other concern has been the synergy with fellow forward Charlie Curnow. Too many times this year, the two players have been competing for the same inside-50 entry.
COLLINGWOOD
Big Tick: Steele Sidebottom
The veteran isn’t playing like a player who is 32. Sidebottom has been all class on a wing this year, having lifted his average disposals (18 to 22.3), score involvements (4.4 to 6.3) and contested possessions (5.4 to 9.7). In many ways, he typifies the overall improvement of the Magpies, who have become the best contest team in the competition. He has been as clean as ever with his sublime skills and plays the wing role well, running hard into the backline to support the defence.
Needs to Lift: Isaac Quaynor
He’s a constant in defence because he can play on most small and medium opposition forwards. There’s no doubt Quaynor has also become stronger in his one-on-one battles. But what I’d like to see from him is to join in more on the Magpies’ attack. His average metres gained (169m) has dropped off this year, as has his kicking efficiency (61.1 per cent). With winning the footy back in defence comes a responsibility to use it better than that.
ESSENDON
Big Tick: Will Setterfield
What a revelation the big-bodied midfielder has been at his new club. Coach Brad Scott is asking his players to show greater intent to chase and tackle and Setterfield is certainly doing that. The bonus is he has traditionally been a low-possession winner but is averaging 24.7 disposals across the first three rounds. Setterfield is getting into space and using his feet to drive his side forward, which is resulting in elite scoreboard impact with 8.7 score involvements per game.
Needs to Lift: Dyson Heppell
The former captain has been here before. He made a slow start to last season, but was able to fight his way back and finish the year well. He needs to find a way to do that again if he wants to keep his spot in the senior team. Heppell looked strong and fit over pre-season, but hasn’t exactly hit the ground running. He has only averaged 15.3 disposals and has recorded a kicking efficiency of just 52.4 per cent across the first three weeks.
FREMANTLE
Big Tick: Luke Ryan
The Dockers’ best rebounding defender has been on fire to start the year. Teammates give Ryan the ball whenever possible, given his decisiveness and accuracy with his kicking. He has a great balance between knowing when to make an aggressive play and when to go down the line when nothing is on. Ryan also reads the game exceptionally well and peels off opponents to help teammates. He rates elite for disposals (28.7 a game), metres gained (639m) and intercepts (8.3).
Needs to Lift: Matt Taberner
The Dockers’ territory game and defensive set up are in good shape. What is not is their forward line. Fremantle desperately needs Taberner to get back to his form of 2021, when he kicked 37 goals from 16 games. So far this year, he has managed just one goal from three matches. He has to get to the right spots and be more competitive in the air than he has been. Taberner looks robotic with his movements, which could be related to the hamstring issues he has had. But that is psychologically something he must overcome.
GEELONG
Big Tick: Ollie Henry
In a rough start to the season for the Cats, recruit Henry has been a shining light. Playing as a forward in a struggling side is always harder, but Henry has still found ways to be influential. He is averaging 12.7 disposals and 4.7 marks. But what has stood out is his goalkicking accuracy, which he clearly put some work into over summer. Henry has booted 4.1 from his three games — 80 per cent accuracy. When the Cats get going, he will be an even greater offensive weapon.
Needs to Lift: Brad Close and Tyson Stengle
They are two players who were pivotal to last year’s premiership success, but have been well below their best in the early part of this year. Close has kicked just 1.3 and Stengle has 2.1 to his name. The question must be posed — is the hunger still there for the small forwards after last year’s flag? They must get to work because they are players who can provide a spark when they are on.
GOLD COAST
Big Tick: Jack Lukosius
A breakout five-goal game against Geelong last week was what we had been waiting for. Lukosius provides great flexibility for the Suns, with his ability to play forward, in defence or on a wing. But it looks like he will predominantly be left at the attacking end this season. I’d like to see him get up the ground to be the link player between the midfield and forward line. If he can regularly find more of the footy, he will have more impact given his exceptional ball use. He is an elite kick.
Needs to Lift: Ben Long
The former Saint is just going in his new colours at the Suns. Long’s contest work and attack on the footy can never be questioned, but he doesn’t always get his defensive actions right when the opposition wins the ball. He has a tendency to give away silly free kicks when he doesn’t think his way through situations well enough. For a rebounding defender, he should also be averaging more than the 15.7 disposals that he is.
GWS
Big Tick: Nick Haynes
The hybrid defender is back to his brilliant intercepting best. He looked a bit off last year by his lofty standards, but is averaging 2.7 intercept marks, 6.3 intercept possessions and 17.7 disposals this season. When he is at his absolute best, Haynes is one of the best interceptors in the competition. He also provides great support for Sam Taylor, courageously putting his body on the line and getting into the leading lanes of Taylor’s opponents.
Needs to Lift: Harry Himmelberg
He was re-cast as an intercept defender to good effect last season, but new coach Adam Kinglsey has identified that Jesse Hogan needs some help in attack and Himmelberg has been thrown forward again. He has been playing as a second-tall forward but has only kicked 2.1 from his first three games. Himmelberg is capable of much more than that in a team that clearly needs more goalkickers.
HAWTHORN
Big Tick: Will Day
Undoubtedly one of the Hawks’ shining lights in the early part of the season, Day is averaging 25.7 disposals in a new role through the midfield. He is composed with the footy, is a good size, makes good decisions and is a quality kick. Given he has been pushed up from the backline, he also understands the need to defend and works had both sides of the ball. The early signs are there that he is going to evolve into a very good AFL midfielder.
Needs to Lift: Finn Maginness
Being used as a run-with player, Maginness has the accountability aspect ticked. What he needs to add to his game is more ball-winning ability and working off his opponent to become an offensive threat when the Hawks have the footy. Maginness is averaging only 11 disposals. If he can lift those touches to between 15 and 20, he becomes far more valuable. Good players hate it when their shadow is prepared to leave them and impact the scoreboard himself.
MELBOURNE
Big Tick: Ben Brown
The key forward is moving freely, taking marks and hitting the scoreboard. Brown has kicked 9.1 this season, which is remarkable accuracy and a big improvement on his output last year. There is also upside to come, given he is yet to take a contested mark this season. He’s leading up well, but sometimes you have to stand under a high ball and take a contested grab. Brown has done if before and needs to do it again.
Needs to Lift: Tom Sparrow
The Demons are prepared to make hard calls on players to keep them on edge. If consistency of effort wanes, players come under the microscope. Sparrow might be one of those players right now. At his best, his position in the team isn’t in jeopardy. But he’s been down on what we have come to expect from him. While his pressure has largely been good, Sparrow is averaging just 14.3 disposals, 3.3 score involvements 0.7 goals. He can offer far more.
NORTH MELBOURNE
Big Tick: Jack Ziebell
The veteran Roo relished the pre-season and looks more nimble in his return to defence. He is playing aggressive and assertive football and is making good decisions with the ball. Teammates are looking to play the game through him and he is therefore averaging 23.7 disposals. Ziebell is also prepared to peel off opponents and intercept the ball. His efforts down back have been a highlight for the new-look Kangaroos.
Needs to Lift: Jaidyn Stephenson
He has returned to being a front-half player but Stephenson needs to return to his form of 2018 at Collingwood. He has natural forward-50 instincts and can have an impact if he is willing to work hard and prepared to compete. However, he has gone goalless in two of his three games this season and is averaging just 10.7 touches and three score involvements. Coach Alastair Clarkson will give him a chance, but Stephenson has to help himself and roll up the sleeves.
PORT ADELAIDE
Big Tick: Jason Horne-Francis
A recruit who entered the season firmly under the microscope, Horne-Francis has been able to silence the critics with his on-field performances early in the season. He looks more comfortable back home in South Australia among family and friends and is only going to get better. He’s powerful and explosive but is still learning to be consistently engaged in the game. When he gets that right, his status in the game is going to rise very quickly.
Needs to Lift: Tom Jonas
The Power captain is struggling. He is not covering the ground well and opposition sides are trying to exploit that by playing through his opponent, especially given he is also regularly looking to zone off and help teammates. The problem is he’s not intercepting when he does that and is only averaging 7.3 disposals and 3.3 marks. Those are well short of the numbers he has put up in recent seasons. Jonas looks a one-paced plodder at the moment.
RICHMOND
Big Tick: Liam Baker
The versatile Tiger has had an outstanding start to the year. He always brings great energy and provides coach Damien Hardwick with multiple options given his flexibility. Regardless of where he plays, he is hard, competitive and is a gut runner. When in defence, Baker brings a midfielder’s mindset and is averaging 24 disposals and 8.7 intercept possessions. When forward, he can apply pressure to lock the ball in but also hit the scoreboard.
Needs to Lift: Maurice Rioli Jr
You can’t question Rioli’s forward-50 pressure, which rates elite in the competition. But I’d like to see him play with that same workrate in offence. Rioli is averaging only eight disposals, 2.7 score involvements and 0.7 goals. We know it is not all about goals for small forwards like him, but his overall game can go to another level if he can find more of the footy. He needs to lift his average disposals to 15 per game. His creativity will benefit the team as he sees options others don’t.
ST KILDA
Big Tick: Mason Wood
The wingman’s game against Essendon last week was out of this world. Wood had a career-high 27 disposals and had a career-high 592m gained, along with logging 11 marks and a goal. He can now be trusted to do a job, which you could not always say about him. This is a player who was in the footy wilderness after being delisted by North Melbourne at the end of 2020. If the All-Australian team was picked right now, he’d be a strong chance to make it.
Needs to Lift: Jade Gresham
Out of contract, Gresham has been asked to return to the forward line for the Saints this year to complement Dan Butler and Jack Higgins. He had spent more time through the midfield last season. There has been a clear directive from the coaches as to where he is needed and he has more to give in attack. Gresham is super creative, but doesn’t always play the best team footy that he should. If he buys into a team-first attitude, he has the potential to kick 30-plus goals.
SYDNEY
Big Tick: Dane Rampe
The veteran defender has started the year as well as anyone at the Swans. He’s still their best lockdown defender but currently he is also accumulating plenty of the footy. He is averaging 19 disposals. His intercept game is back and he regularly gets the balance right on when to mark the ball and when to spoil and kill it. Rampe is accountable to himself and also accountable to others.
Needs to Lift: Isaac Heeney
He’s a super talent, but Heeney has just dropped off marginally in the early part of the season. He’s averaging only 11.7 disposals and has kicked only three goals from his first three games. With Tom Papley spending more time in the midfield, the Swans need Heeney as his creative best in the forward line. He has the attributes and the ability to turn games on their head when he’s on. A five goal haul isn’t too far away.
WEST COAST
Big Tick: Jayden Hunt
Given how Hunt plays, he will only get better as coach Adam Simpson adjusts his game style as part of the rebuild. The Eagles have to go away from a kick-mark game and take the game on more often and Hunt is a player who loves to do that on a wing or across halfback. He is already showing he get the Eagles offence started with his run and carry and the depth of his kicking. It’s a perfect marriage for Hunt and the team if they use him correctly.
Needs to Lift: Alex Witherden
I admire players who know their limitations and Witherden is one of those. But his desire to take safe options by foot to protect turnover slows the Eagles’ ball movement, which is not what they need. He needs to play with more dare because he possesses good decision making and is a good kick. He just goes into safe mode too often, too early.
WESTERN BULLDOGS
Big Tick: Tim English
With Max Gawn sidelined with injury, there’s an argument that English is the best ruckman in the competition right now. He’s averaging 20.3 disposals, 26.3 hit-outs and 10.3 hit-outs to advantage. English is working hard into space and taking marks, looking far more confident in his ability to impact in the air. This has come on the back of growing into his body and becoming stronger in the contest. He is a player on the rise.
Needs to Lift: Bailey Dale
The Bulldogs’ defenders are playing with a little bit too much rope and Dale is one of them. As much as the side wants to be an aggressive, attacking team, you still need to defend. Right now, that balance is out of whack and there is too much of a 50-50 mindset at play. Dale and the Dogs need to get back to a defence-first mindset if they want to rise up the ladder this season.
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