Mick McGuane takes a close look at the opening week of finals
The Doggies must release the shackles if they are to turn around their recent form slump against the surging Bombers in their elimination final, writes Mick McGuane.
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It’s time to separate the contenders from the pretenders.
Three games in the opening week of finals are settled.
Check out Mick McGuane’s preview of the final match below.
WESTERN BULLDOGS V ESSENDON
Elimination Final 1 – University of Tasmania Stadium, 3.20pm (EST)
WESTERN BULLDOGS
HOW THEY PLAY
The Bulldogs are a high volume team who play the game with what’s in front of them. A lot of people think they’re a handball team but they play what the opposition give them. Contested ball-winning ability is the signature element of their brand, albeit they’re been slightly off in that area recently. At their best, they bring a high-octane brand where they take the game on with great dare and high risk. Exiting defensive-50, they head towards the boundary more than any other team in a bid to protect their backline.
THE KEY
Hunt the ball. They’ve got to back to their contested ball-winning ability and expose Essendon’s lack of ability in the contest. The Bombers are ranked 17th in the competition for contested ball. Do they like it hard and tough? Coach Luke Beveridge will have his midfield group in a bit of a frenzy, knowing the game starts and stops with them and their intensity and attitude to the contest must be fierce. Tom Liberatore must set the scene and get back to his nasty best and the likes of captain Marcus Bontempelli and Jack McCrae must follow suit. As a midfield collective, they must rediscover that hungry desire to win the footy, both in contested and loose ball situations.
THE CHALLENGE
Deny the opposition their aggressive ball movement. When Essendon is playing its exciting, attacking brand it can challenge most teams. The Bulldogs got a taste of this when these two sides last met in Round 21 and quick Bombers entries inside-50 allowed Peter Wright to kick seven goals. If the Bulldogs’ pressure and tackling lacks intensity and is slightly off again, the Bombers’ ball movement could create serious issues. You need to ensure you have pressure and power at the ball, cut off exits and eliminate one-twos to stop any potential overlap.
THE THEME
Take the game on. That’s what coach Beveridge should be imploring on his players. They’re in a rut after three losing games to finish the home-and-away season which squandered a top-four opportunity. Now they’re in a cutthroat situation. The Bulldogs need to release the shackles and take the game on. Playing on from marks and changing angles to shift Essendon’s defenders is important as it challenges their ability to defend ball movement and put an undersized defence under pressure. That’s what Aaron Naughton and Tim English want. But playing at speed can come at a cost if you fail to nail the money kick going inside-50.
IF I WAS THE BULLDOGS …
I’d be bold and brave at selection. Pick veteran ruckman Stefan Martin, even though he’s had an interrupted preparation. The stoppage dominance we saw earlier in the year from the Bulldogs has disappeared and in Round 21 Essendon smacked them in scores from stoppages 11.4 (70) to 3.3 (21). That’s alarming. Don’t go with second and third-string ruckmen against Sam Draper. Have faith in Martin and keep Tim English forward. In defence, Alex Keath missed the Round 21 clash but he goes to Peter Wright who is in form and kicked seven goals against the Bulldogs last time. Bailey Williams must engage Jake Stringer when he spits forward after competing centre bounces.
WESTERN BULLDOGS INJURY LIST
Hayden Crozier (concussion) 1 week
Ed Richards (shoulder) TBC
Josh Bruce (knee) season
Toby McLean (knee) season
ESSENDON
HOW THEY PLAY
The Bombers are quite similar to the Bulldogs in that they are a low kick-to-handball team. They like to empty out their forward 50 and allow Will Snelling, Devon Smith and Dylan Clarke to get up the ground to contest the stoppage and on the back of those extra numbers they chain the ball out with a go-forward handball mentality and then attack a vacant forward 50 with speed. The Bombers are also conservative coming out of defence, using the boundary 54 per cent of the time.
THE KEY
Win the midfield battle. It will be Zac Merrett, Darcy Parish, Andy McGrath, Jake Stringer, and a fitter Dylan Shiel against Bontempelli, Macrae, Liberatore, Lachie Hunter, Josh Dunkley, Bailey Smith and Adam Treloar. It is one elite midfield group against another. That Essendon group must get on top of — or at least break even with — the Bulldogs midfielders. They must also pair-off and not be too drawn to the ball or the ball carrier. You don’t want to allow the Bulldogs to create a spare number, given they are so good at chaining the ball out when they do. Equalising the numbers must be instantaneous amongst the Bombers midfielders when the Bulldogs win possession of the ball
THE CHALLENGE
It is easy saying the key is to win the midfield battle. The challenge is to actually do it. The Essendon midfield group was terrific against the Bulldogs in Round 21 and they have been terrific all year. Jake Stringer’s emerged as an All-Australian and Zac Merrett and Darcy Parish are in the conversation. Essendon has a 1-8 record against fellow finals teams but they will derive great confidence from beating the Bulldogs just a few weeks ago – which was kickstarted by what they did in the middle. Winning over 50 per cent of clearances and contested ball must be at the forefront of their minds.
THE THEME
Trust the forwards now they’re in good form. Essendon is No. 1 for marks inside-50 in the past four weeks. The ability to be smart, lift and lower the eyes and find the best option going inside-50 has been a big part of the Bombers’ recent success. What you don’t want to do is bomb it in to the Bulldogs’ defenders. That’s what they like with their team roll-back mentality and Alex Keath has been good under a high ball most of this year.
IF I WAS ESSENDON …
Jordan Ridley plays on Aaron Naughton. That’s the important match up. That means Jayden Laverde and James Stewart will have to share Tim English. If the Bulldogs’ counter-attack weapons in Caleb Daniel or Bailey Dale get off the chain, I’d entertain using Dylan Clarke as a defensive forward to limit the creative ball use that pair provides. Through the midfield, I’d be backing my group in and I’d be challenging Sam Draper to push forward to offer another aerial threat inside forward 50 and test his opponent in the ruck as a defender.
ESSENDON INJURY LIST
Kyle Langford (hamstring) test
Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti (personal) TBC
Michael Hurley (hip) season
Harrison Jones (foot) season
Irving Mosquito (knee) season
Zac Reid (back) season
MATCH ODDS: Western Bulldogs $1.58, Essendon $2.40
FLAG ODDS: Western Bulldogs $11, Essendon $26
PREDICTION: Western Bulldogs by 15 points
MELBOURNE V BRISBANE LIONS
Qualifying Final 1 – Perth 7.30pm (EST)
MELBOURNE
HOW THEY PLAY
Melbourne’s brand is all about being a strong contested and pressure outfit which helps them gain territory. They’ve now established a united defensive system built on trust and selflessness that makes them the best defensive team in the competition. This in turn allows the Demons to create a strong forward half game and their impressive forward half intercepts are a by-product of this.
THE KEY
Contested ball is king in finals and Simon Goodwin’s message will be pretty pointed yet simple. He’ll demand his players to win contest after contest, which helps you gain important territory in dewy conditions. Melbourne has had a contested possession differential of +11 over the course of the year, which is ranked second in the competition. The Demons win groundball, they get after the loose ball and they’re in the positive for clearance differential. Clayton Oliver is tough yet a very creative player at stoppages and will need to lead the way as he has for much of the year.
THE CHALLENGE
The Demons need to prove their maturity on the back of an emotional come-from-behind win over Geelong last week. We know the game’s played above the shoulders and the mind can do tricky things at times but there’s no room for complacency. If Melbourne gets comfortable on the back of last week’s win, it will quickly realise it is coming up against a team that can do some serious damage with the footy and score quickly. Brisbane has scored 100 points or more 10 times this season, which is the most in the competition.
THE THEME
Welcome the grind. This will be a brutal game physically given both teams like to play a combative contest brand that is high in pressure. Mentally you’ll also get tested. On the back of what we witnessed when these two teams met in Round 12, there will be momentum swings. Brisbane was all over Melbourne at halftime in that match but the Demons were doing a lot right, made a few minor adjustments and flipped the game on its head. It’s all about how you respond, continue to grind, believe in yourself and have faith in your brand. That’s something that Melbourne have mastered most of this year.
IF I WAS MELBOURNE …
Oscar McInerney is likely to run with Max Gawn in general play, so I’d be telling Gawn to slide aggressively forward at times and force McInerney to defend close to goal. It’s worth testing his defensive traits and his lack of discipline in marking contests. Continue to use Alex Neale-Bullen as a high half-forward who pushes up to stoppages to provide an extra number, which will ask the question of Daniel Rich or Grant Birchall as to whether they go with him or not. Defensively, Steven May must line up on Joe Daniher. If either Lachie Neale or Jarryd Lyons begin to impact, James Harmes must assume a run-with role to nullify their influence.
MELBOURNE INJURY LIST
Jayden Hunt (ankle) 1-2 weeks
Marty Hore (knee) season
Aaron Nietschke (knee) season
Adam Tomlinson (knee) season
BRISBANE
HOW THEY PLAY
The Lions play with a surge mentality and pride themselves on being a strong contested possession and pressure team in order to gain territory. They simplify their style by having the highest kick-to-handball radio in the competition. Over the course of the year they’ve generally used the corridor coming out of defensive-50 to attack the game and give their forwards great opportunities. However, there has been a subtle shift over the past month to use the boundary line more often. This helps protect turnovers but also if the ball goes out of bounds they can reset and revert to their strengths around stoppages.
THE KEY
Dominate stoppages. This is two-fold. They have got to win the ball, because winning first-possession at the coalface against Gawn, Oliver, Christian Petracca and Harmes is as big a challenge as there is in footy. But it’s also about not getting scored against from stoppages and this has been a problem for the Lions. They’ve conceded an average of 32.8 points against from stoppages this year, ranked 14th in the competition. As a reality check they just need to look at their dismal second half against Melbourne in round 12 to see what happens if you get smashed in this facet of the game.
THE CHALLENGE
Force Melbourne to defend. It is really important to keep six forwards at home and ensure they engage their respective opponents and use them as a competitive starting point. You can’t allow Jake Lever and Christian Salem to drop off and get their intercept and rebounding games going. Salem sets up far too many plays going the other way through his elite decision making and effective disposal. The Demons are the hardest team in the competition to score against so don’t make it harder to score by leaving one of them free.
THE THEME
Get to work without the footy. Forward 50 pressure is paramount so the Lions players must collectively sign off with their defensive effort and intent in this area of the ground. Brisbane will gain good territory, but if they don’t apply manic pressure when the Demons exit defensive 50 it will create indecision and significant pressure on the Lions’ backs. Daniel Rich and Grand Birchall don’t have the leg speed to get back into good defensive positions against the likes of Kysiah Pickett, Alex Neale-Bullen and Charlie Spargo, if Melbourne’s defenders can run and carry the ball under no pressure. As pressure forwards, Charlie Cameron, Lincoln McCarthy and Dayne Zorko must set the scene.
IF I WAS BRISBANE …
Harris Andrews goes to Ben Brown, Marcus Adams to Tom McDonald, Darcy Gardiner to Luke Jackson and Brandon Starevich to Bailey Fritsch. Jarrod Berry and Jarryd Lyons as big-bodied midfielders need to dilute the influence of Clayton Oliver and bring consistent body pressure to him. That may force Max Gawn to use Christian Petracca or James Harmes or Jack Viney as target players instead. Adding some speed through the midfield at stages with the likes of Dayne Zorko, Zac Bailey and Hugh McCluggage could also provide an edge, given Melbourne’s onball brigade can be exposed in defensive transition.
BRISBANE INJURY LIST
Harris Andrews (hamstring) test
Mitch Robinson (calf) test
Noah Answerth (groin) TBC
Eric Hipwood (knee) season
Harry Sharp (ankle) season
Cam Rayner (knee) season
MATCH ODDS: Melbourne $1.67, Brisbane $2.20
FLAG ODDS: Melbourne $3.75, Brisbane $5.50
PREDICTION: Melbourne by 3 points
SYDNEY SWANS V GWS GIANTS
Second Elimination Final, University of Tasmania Stadium, Saturday 3.20pm AEST
SYDNEY
HOW THEY PLAY
John Longmire-coached teams pride themselves on contested possession and applying great pressure. The Swans’ ball movement has become a weapon due to them playing a more expansive game that makes the ground big. They have a strong defensive mindset with a sound structure and are the best turnover team in the competition with 57.9 points scored from that source per game.
THE KEY
It’s all about their turnover game. They must maximise speed across the ground, in offence and defence. Punishing the Giants with quick ball movement on turnover is important, along with closing down open spaces as soon as possible when GWS has the Sherrin. The Swans’ pressure is the reason their turnover game is strong and that’s when they are at their best. Sydney also defends turnovers really well, restricting the opposition to an average of only 43.5 points when it coughs the ball up. That’s a plus-14.4-points differential, which is third-best in the AFL and similar to what Richmond was doing in its prime.
THE THEME
Starting well. Almost half of the Swans’ team is yet to taste finals footy. They’ve won 12 first quarters and lost 10, but that figure includes being behind at quarter-time four times in the past six weeks. The only occasions Sydney was ahead in that period were against Gold Coast and North Melbourne. The Giants led six goals to one against the Swans in Round 18. Younger players are often anxious ahead of their first final, so a good start would help settle those nerves.
THE CHALLENGE
Winning the contested possession count. Longmire’s men boast a 9-1 record when they win this area, but slip to 6-6 when they don’t, which illustrates how important the contest is to them. That’s at ground level and aerially. There’s no greater evidence than the last clash with the Giants. The Swans were 35 points down in the second term that night, on the back of being minus-24 in contested possessions in the first half. They won contested ball by 22 in the final two quarters and ended up storming past GWS by 26 points. That’s not a coincidence. Luke Parker is the AFL’s sixth-best contested ball-winner in the past six rounds, so he will be vital again.
IF I WAS SYDNEY
I’d send Tom McCartin to Jesse Hogan and Dane Rampe to Harry Himmelberg. Continuing to use Tom Papley as a makeshift centre-square midfielder is a good option, too, with the concerns around Josh Kennedy and Callum Mills. Papley’s quick, clean and agile and offers creative nous, so he needs to be involved. I’d even entertain putting Ollie Florent in the centre square if Kennedy and/or Mills don’t come up. Tom Hickey must push forward as well to try to hit the scoreboard and challenge Shane Mumford’s athleticism. Toby Greene is probably too good to just have one dedicated opponent, so I’d roll multiple players through him, including Jake Lloyd and Harry Cunningham.
INJURIES
Nick Blakey (leg) season
Josh Kennedy (hamstring) test
Logan McDonald (cheekbone) TBC
Callum Mills (Achilles) test
Sam Naismith (knee) season
GWS
HOW THEY PLAY
The Giants value a strong, physical brand with an emphasis on winning stoppages to not only come out on top in the territory battle but to score. They do this well and it’s vindicated in their positive scores from stoppages differential. But it’s their defensive intent that has markedly improved in the last six weeks and made them harder to play against.
THE KEY
Owning the midfield. GWS has a great opportunity against an understrength Swans on-ball brigade, especially with their bigger, more-mature bodies. Shane Mumford needs to be at his menacing best at the stoppages to give quality service to the likes of Josh Kelly, Jacob Hopper, Callan Ward, Tim Taranto and Stephen Coniglio. That will be crucial in the Giants generating effective clearances and giving their forwards good looks. It’s pretty simple for Leon Cameron and his players: if they lose the midfield battle, they will lose the game. The onus is on their experienced players to win the critical contests.
THE THEME
It’s important that GWS plays to its strengths. This is a classic turnover team (Swans) versus a stoppage team (Giants). Cameron’s men need to make it a stop-start game with as many stoppages – upwards of 80 – as possible to avoid giving Sydney rhythm. They will roll up their high half-forwards to the contest to not only create high numbers around the ball but open up the forward line. GWS did that well against Geelong and needs to charge away from stoppages to isolate Hogan and Himmelberg against their Swans defenders.
THE CHALLENGE
Defending strongly. Lance Franklin poses the biggest threat in attack, but Sydney has a number of prolific forward options, including Tom Papley, Isaac Heeney and Will Hayward. They can all keep the scoreboard ticking over, so the Giants winning their individual match-ups will be just as important as team defence. They will pay a major price if they lose too many critical 50-50 contests. It might be wiser to play with more safety coming out of the back half and choose easier options to limit the Swans’ scoring prowess from forward-half intercepts. Stoppages and pressure will both be crucial in deciding this match, but GWS’s ball use coming out of its defensive 50 is also vital.
IF I WAS GWS
Sam Taylor is the obvious choice to man Franklin, and Connor Idun or Isaac Cumming will likely get the job on game-breaker Heeney, which enables Nick Haynes to be the interceptor. Some people might think Matt de Boer should go to Luke Parker, but I’d start him as a defensive forward on Jake Lloyd. Lloyd is Sydney’s offensive kickstarter down back, so drying up his uncontested possessions must be a priority. Going to Parker can be plan B. I’d back in Hopper, Kelly, Ward, Taranto and Coniglio to win the midfield war. Lachie Whitfield can go through there as well. I’d definitely select Mumford. He’s got a battered body but the Giants are better when he plays.
INJURIES
Callum Brown (hamstring) test
Jack Buckley (knee) season
Brent Daniels (hamstring) TBC
Jeremy Finlayson (personal) TBC
Matt Flynn (shoulder) season
Tom Green (hamstring) test
Lachie Keeffe (knee) season
Xavier O’Halloran (calf) 1 week
MATCH ODDS
Sydney $1.64
GWS Giants $2.26
Flag odds
Sydney $15
GWS Giants $21
Prediction: Sydney by 14
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