Kysaiah Pickett monster nine-year deal is both a monumental coup and an unfathomable risk for Melbourne

Forget the million dollar row at Carlton – Melbourne will have the riskiest list profile in football, writes Jon Ralph. Was offering the AFL’s richest deal to Kysaiah Pickett the right call?

Melbourne’s monster deal for Kysaiah Pickett is at the same time a monumental coup and an unfathomable risk.

Both things can be true when you are locking away one of footy’s most dynamic and unpredictable players on a nine-year deal.

The figures for Pickett’s deal are jaw-dropping, as revealed by the Herald Sun on Tuesday.

An average of $1.4 million a season and around $12.5 million in guaranteed money through to 2034.

That deal to be announced on Thursday also gives Simon Goodwin a chance to win a second premiership and join the ranks of Melbourne immortals.

Kysaiah Pickett has signed a huge new contract. Picture: Quinn Rooney/Getty Images

Goodwin’s power base has strengthened immeasurably in recent months, given improved performances and the recruitment of new CEO Paul Guerra, who is a big fan.

The reality is that for all their depth and top-end talent, Pickett is the game-changer who allows this club’s misfiring forward line (and midfield) to go from average to top-end when clicking.

So Pickett gets footy’s longest and biggest current deal and the Demons get to watch his performances in coming years with fingers over eyes desperately hoping nothing goes wrong.

Cautionary tales?

Look no further than Angus Brayshaw, who signed up to 2028 despite a long history of concussions.

The Herald Sun confirmed again this week that the Demons have been able to get no greater salary cap relief than the AFL rules – 90 per cent of his salary outside the cap in 2025, 75 per cent in 2026, 50 per cent in 2027.

Some of Pickett’s deal will presumably be back-ended when the Demons’ cap room clears as Max Gawn, Jake Lever and Steven May either retire or reduce in wage.

But there will be a time in 2028 when Pickett is being paid close to full tote odds, Brayshaw is being paid around $700,000 not to play and Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver being paid $1.5 million or more.

So the Demons will be paying around $5 million for three players to take the field.

All while desperately hoping Oliver bounces back as an AFL matchwinner, that Petracca can rejoin the ranks of the AFL’s top-ten stars, and that Pickett doesn’t get complacent on this deal.

Forget the million dollar row at Carlton.

Melbourne will have football’s riskiest list profile.

Only ten players earned over $1.2 million in 2024 amid 25 AFL millionaires in that season.

It isn’t a stretch to say that Melbourne might have three players in Petracca, Pickett and Oliver in the top 20 paid players in the comp.

For a side that didn’t win a final in 2022 or 2023 and finished bottom five last year.

Club list bosses estimate that by 2028 under the salary cap there will be more than 60 AFL million dollar players with clubs able to juggle five or six players on seven figure wages.

The concern for Melbourne is that their trio aren’t just on a million bucks, they will all hit the $1.5 million mark across some years of their contract.

But the club should be applauded for putting the time and effort into Pickett to ensure he was comfortable enough to stay with partner Ardu Cubillo and their young bub in Melbourne.

They haven’t advertised it, but the work done by the entire club including Goodwin, football boss Alan Richardson and indigenous welfare boss Matt Whelan has been considerable.

The concern is that all of Petracca, Oliver and Pickett have signed mega-deals at the absolute top of the market.

Fans scoff at the Oliver deal through to 2030 on as much as $1.7 million at the peak of his earning powers in the biggest years of his deal.

But the Demons signed him in June 2022 in a season when he would go on to be All Australian, win the best-and-fairest and be awarded the title of the AFLCA champion player of the year.

Ditto for Petracca, signed to 2029.

Melbourne stars Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver. Picture: James Wiltshire/AFL Photos

Carlton also secured Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow as pre-agents but at least it would say it signed the pair up at great money – not bank-breaking cash.

The Demons either matched deals of that scope or lost Oliver.

That is why the AFL’s determination to reduce the number of long-term deals rings so hollow.

It has ensured club directors sign off on long-term deals and grumbled that clubs are putting themselves at undue risk by locking away stars on six-years-plus.

But it does nothing to mandate shorter deals, introduced free agency which only gives stars massive leverage as seven-year pre-agents, and gives very little protection if a player is medically retired.

So the Demons will know that having signed Pickett, one Aiden O’Driscoll-style career-ending concussion could see them totally on the hook for more than $9 million of his deal.

They can off-set that risk by trading him to Fremantle, and their future premiership hopes go up in a puff of smoke.

This is a great day for Melbourne, but also one to remind the AFL world of the impossible choices faced by clubs and list managers.

Originally published as Kysaiah Pickett monster nine-year deal is both a monumental coup and an unfathomable risk for Melbourne