Gary Buckenara analyses Essendon’s list after the 2020 season
Essendon’s list is in big trouble and the departures of Adam Saad and Joe Daniher will only make things worse. So what do they do? List guru Gary Buckenara on what Carlton must give up in a trade for Saad plus who can replace Daniher?
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Essendon can’t win a premiership with this list and it’s time for the club to commit to a rebuild and make hard decisions on players.
The Bombers don’t have anywhere near enough quality – in both established and developing talent – to play and win a final, let alone a flag. After analysing ever player on the list, Andrew McGrath is the only A-grader and I fail to see where, from the current group of young players, the next genuine star will come from.
The club must act now and make tough decisions or it will continue to be a mediocre team that threatens but is ultimately not good enough.
Injuries restricted Essendon this year but that only papers over the cracks. There are deeper problems. The list needs more top-end talent – good established players in the 23-26 age bracket – and elite talent from the draft. The Bombers haven’t had a first-round pick since 2015.
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Can such a big club accept it needs a rebuild? Significant decisions must be made on players including Michael Hurley, Cale Hooker, David Zaharakis, Joe Daniher, Orazio Fantasia and Patrick Ambrose. Are they in Essendon’s next premiership team?
Adam Saad has requested a trade to Carlton, with the Bombers to lose a player that was a priority re-signing. Halfbacks are valuable, especially ones who take the game on and use the ball well like he does. Play hard ball in the trade. I would only trade him if he’s hellbent on leaving and if the offer is good enough – a first-round pick at a minimum. He’s going to be a massive loss.
LIST NEEDS
Essendon has too many similar midfielders. McGrath, Zach Merrett, Devon Smith, Dyson Heppell, Dylan Shiel, Darcy Parish, Matt Guelfi and Brayden Ham get outmuscled in the contest. They need big-bodied, tall midfielders to do the grunt work. They also desperately need outside midfielders with elite kicking skills.
The Bombers also need young key position players. Who, aside from Brandon Zerk-Thatcher, is developing behind Hooker and Hurley? Aaron Francis hasn’t come on and he’s more a third tall. Who’s the Daniher replacement? Get games into Harry Jones.
The ruck back-up stocks are poor and the retirement of Tom Bellchambers has only underlined the need for another ruckman despite the emergence of Sam Draper.
TRADE TARGETS
Essendon should throw the kitchen sink at Brad Crouch. He’s the perfect fit as a big-bodied midfielder who can feed the ball out to Merrett and McGrath. Other options are Fremantle’s Connor Blakely and Gold Coast’s Will Brodie who wouldn’t cost much in terms of a trade but would play a significant role. GWS’s Jye Caldwell is rumoured to be looking at a move and he’d be a good target as a player who can be explosive from stoppages.
Essendon has been linked to Daniel Talia and while he’s a good defender, he’ll be 29 in October. Will he be in Essendon’s next premiership team? No, so it’s not the right move. You bring in these types of players when you’re in the premiership window. I can’t see the point in this.
Daniher is set to leave, so that leaves a massive hole up forward. Shaun McKernan has been delisted, so who’s going to kick the goals? Go all-out for Jeremy Cameron. He’ll be 28 in April but players like Cameron aren’t available every year. The only problem is, why would he want to go to Essendon now?
Ben Brown is another option. He and Cameron would be exceptions to the trading strategy (see Talia) because you need a key forward for structure. You can’t throw Jones to the wolves without a senior body next to them. Jayden Laverde and pick No.41 would be a win-win.
UNTOUCHABLES
Sam Draper, Andrew McGrath, Jordan Ridley, Dylan Shiel, Dyson Heppell, Darcy Parish, Mason Redman, Jake Stringer, Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti, Irving Mosquito and Kyle Langford.
TRADE BAIT
Essendon should look at what it can get for Merrett, Hurley and Hooker. There’s talk they’re looking at their options and it could be a win-win. These are exactly the types of hard decisions clubs need to make when rebuilding. Essendon has too many of the same type of midfielder and of those, Merrett has the most trade value. Why not shop him around and see if you can get a pick in the 12-25 range. I would take that deal to bring in an elite midfielder with size (187-191cm), an inside contested ball winner or key position player.
Hurley (30) and Hooker (32 in October) won’t be part of Essendon’s next premiership team but they do have some trade currency. Shop them to a premiership contender who needs a key defender or swingman and if a top-30 pick is offered for Hurley and a top-40 pick for Hooker, take the deal. It’s time to invest in the draft and the future – these picks will bring in young players who could develop into good AFL players.
Orazio Fantasia nearly left last year and only managed five games this season. But how much is he worth? His year was dogged by injuries again and he played only 15 games in 2019 and 13 in 2018. At his best he’s an exciting talent but there are too many question marks over his body. I would try and package him up with Francis, who hasn’t developed as expected, and try to trade them to Adelaide (they’re both South Australian) for their early second-round pick or the Brad Crouch compensation if he leaves and they get an end-of-first-round pick.
I would look at trading Laverde because despite his talent, injuries have dogged his career. A second or early third-round pick would be a good result to bring in another young player.
RATING THE LIST
A-grade: McGrath
B: Daniher, Fantasia, Heppell, Hooker, Hurley, Langford, McDonald-Tipungwuti, Merrett, Parish, Ridley, Saad, Shiel, Smith, Stringer, Zaharakis
C: Ambrose, Cutler, Francis, Gleeson, Guelfi, Laverde, Phillips, Redman, Snelling, Stewart, Townsend
Developing (with A-B grade potential): Draper, Mosquito
Developing: Clarke, Bryan, Cahill, Crauford, Ham, Hird, Johnson, Jones, McBride, McQuillan
What the ratings mean:
A-grade: Elite player on any AFL list
B: Top 10-18 player on most lists
C: An 18-30 player on a list
Developing: Aged 21 or under
CRYSTAL BALL
The current list will be competitive at best but it won’t win or challenge for a premiership. Unfortunately, talk of a flag is a long way off. It’s time for a rebuild to reboot for a finals tilt in 2-4 years with a list that can not only play finals but win them. If the list stays as it is, the Bombers will only delay the inevitable. A 2023 finals appearance would be the earliest they could aim for if the rebuild is done properly.
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Originally published as Gary Buckenara analyses Essendon’s list after the 2020 season
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