Early Tackle: Sam Landsberger’s likes and dislikes from AFL round 21
Mid-season, the Sydney Swans were an unbackable favourite for the flag. Since then, it’s been all downhill to a point where they’re now done. Plus, full round 21 likes and dislikes.
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The Bulldogs are on a roll — but the Demons and Suns can kiss their September chances goodbye.
A round which started with 13 finals contenders have effectively been whittled down to 11 by the time North Melbourne and Richmond clashed on Saturday afternoon.
Sam Landsberger names his likes and dislikes from round 21 in the Early Tackle.
DISLIKES
NO JACKPOT PRIZE FOR SPOON, BUT BUFFET AWAITS
Richmond’s key to success has long been tattooed megastar Dustin Martin. Now it is Chris Toce, the recruiter with a thick beard who joined Punt Rd in March after a stint at St Kilda. The Tigers blew Saturday’s wooden spoon game. At one stage, they led inside 50s 16-4 in the final quarter, but had kicked 2.5 to 1.0. Not sure how interested Martin was. His decision to chip a pass instead of sink his boots into a set-shot late in the game was strange. But the loss leaves Toce and the Tigers on track for the No.1 pick. Last year, they stockpiled points which they will probably swap for Carlton’s first-round pick. They also hold No.21. Then, there are decisions to make on Liam Baker, Daniel Rioli and Shai Bolton. Baker controls his destiny (he is out of contract) whereas the Tigers would have to agree to trade Rioli and Bolton. If, say, two depart there is every chance the Tigers will have six picks inside 25. It is the worst year to hold No.1 because there are six players in the top bracket rather than a standout like Harley Reid. But nail several of those selections and Toce and his team will have turbocharged the Tigers’ rebuild. There is conjecture about whether Toce had final say on some of St Kilda’s recent picks like Mattaes Phillipou and Darcy Wilson. But one thing is for certain, he left the Saints with a nice parting gift by taking Hugo Garcia at No.50 in what already looks like a steal. Richmond supporters walked away from Marvel Stadium discussing the draft as well as getting their heads around emotionally detaching from some of their premiership heroes.
ADEM AND THESE
No coach wants to start their career with a wooden spoon. But Adem Yze would be far from alone if the Tigers finish on the bottom for the first time since 2007. Matthew Nicks (2020), Chris Fagan (2017), Alan Richardson (2014), Dean Bailey (2008), Peter Rohde (2003) and Guy McKenna (2011) all started coaching with cutlery. For Yze this would be a genuine mulligan. Some weeks he has had as little as 25 fit players to select a team from and, up until a month ago, the Tigers did what no other club had done – beat ladder-leader Sydney.
SWANS ARE DONE
If season 2024 has taught us anything it is to avoid making sweeping statements. It wasn’t long ago Port Adelaide fans booed Ken Hinkley at Adelaide Oval, Essendon was secure in the top four and Glen Jakovich, I mean Rory Lobb, was playing VFL. But Sydney is cooked. Yes, the Swans will end the round on top of the ladder. It doesn’t matter. They can’t win the flag. The eventual premier does not trail a team 0-71 in August. On Saturday night the Swans did not record a possession inside their forward 50m in the first quarter. “That’s witches hats stuff, that is a training drill,” Dermott Brereton said as Willie Rioli kicked an easy goal to make it 95 points. The biggest loss by a team that went on to win the flag was 100 points (Carlton in 1945). That result was in the first month of the season – not the last.
The Swans went down by 112 points. It wasn’t a one-off. This is a six-week slump regardless of whether coach John Longmire can hear alarm bells ringing. The Swans looked unbeatable at 13-1 with a percentage of 148.8. Since then they are 1-5 with a percentage of 87. Their sole win came at home against North Melbourne. There are shades of Fremantle in 2015 about the Swans. The Dockers started 9-0, lost three out of the final four home-and-away games, lost Nat Fyfe to injury and failed to make the grand final as the minor premier. Like Freo, Sydney’s Autumn blitz was some of the best footy we’ve seen … and it will be quickly forgotten. Chad Warner was untouchable and untaggable for the first three months. Suddenly he is very catchable. The Swans rank bottom-four for contested ball differential, groundball gets, clearances and points against from turnovers since round 15. Bottom four. With three games to go until finals. James Rowbottom returned against Port, but it didn’t help. As Denis Pagan used to say: “You can’t go down to Puckle St and buy confidence”.
AFL’S NGA INJUSTICE EXPOSED — AGAIN
The injustice of the AFL flip-flopping on Next Generation Academy rules was showcased in a matter of hours. At 4pm on Friday the league reinstated access to NGA stars from pick 1. By 8pm the man who had the rule changed in what was a shortsighted, knee-jerk reaction – 2020 No. 1 draft pick Jamarra Ugle-Hagan – was toying with Melbourne’s backline.
You wouldn't think Mac Andrew was a key defender! 💪#AFLEaglesSunspic.twitter.com/AvieR3GYXJ
— AFL (@AFL) August 2, 2024
And by 9pm the man Melbourne missed out on because of that rule change (that no longer exists) – special talent Mac Andrew – was lighting up Perth Stadium … as a forward (three goals). Fremantle put four years of work into Jesse Motlop and watched him go to Carlton. Last year North Melbourne missed out on Ryley Sanders, who had 18 disposals and kicked two goals in the first quarter of a VFL match on Friday. It’s fair to say some clubs have every right to feel cheated of a player.
HOW LONG CAN SUNS GET AWAY WITH FAILURE?
Tasmania’s board presented to the AFL Commission late last week. Can you imagine if Devils chiefs said they hoped to play finals for the first time in 2042? Richard Goyder might have torn up the 19th licence up on the spot. Well, that is where Gold Coast finds itself – hoping to play finals in its 15th AFL season (2025). Will Schofield said the Suns went into “kill the game mode” on Friday night … when they lead by two points with 10 minutes left. The Suns are 0-17 in recent away games. They led this one by 23 points and – with the exception of Matt Rowell – rolled over. Damien Hardwick should fly mindfulness expert Emma Murray up this week because it is clearly all mental and they would not want the drought to hang over their heads all pre-season. Why can he only cook these sausages at home?
DYNASTY WASTED? DEES STARE AT END OF ERA
Max Gawn said after the 2021 Covid cup: “We want to create a dynasty. This is just the start”. Chief executive Gary Pert said: “This has got to be something that builds over the next five, six, seven years”. President Kate Roffey said: “We’ll be challenging for premierships for the next decade because we have players in their early 20s who are just phenomenal. We’re always one of the youngest two or three teams every week”. Well, almost three years on and the Demons have not won a final. On Friday night the hot take brigade declared this a dynasty wasted. Those alarmists should take a deep breath. Perhaps this was one bad year … in a competition that is tighter than that 2021 premiership backline. The Demons have blooded five promising kids (Howes, Windsor, Tholstrup, Brown and Moniz-Wakefield), upgraded Trent Rivers to a damaging midfielder and gave Judd McVee his turn late on Friday night (he looked good). Convinced that adding Christian Petracca and perhaps Dan Houston to what has become a young, regenerating team will keep them in contention. Less convinced Harrison Petty belongs in the forward line.
LIKES
SCOTT THE SAME: COMPARE THE PAIR
Kardinia Park has been as unwelcoming as an Officeworks to Adelaide for the past 21 years. But when the Crows led by 10 points in the final quarter, and with Sam De Koning (knee) sidelined, they looked prime to crack the Cats open. Then, it was like a switch flicked. From that moment the spirit the Cats showed to fight their way back into the game, and then into control of the game, was stunning. Compare the mentality of the teams coached by twin brothers Brad and Chris Scott. On Friday the Essendon coach admitted his club was playing with a timid “attitude of ‘I hope we win this’, or even worse, ‘I hope we don’t lose this’”. Whereas these Cats players simply refused to lose on Saturday. They are winners and it seemed like they won a stack more of the ball in their front half in the final quarter. That was because whenever the ball was in dispute they were hungrier to win it back. The Zachs – Tuohy and Guthrie – were big, as was sub Jack Bowes and unsurprisingly Patrick Dangerfield. They sharked Reilly O’Brien’s taps all night and fed a forward line containing Jeremy Cameron with 58 entries. And it was the difference between staying in the top-four hunt or fighting to stay in the eight.
LAWS TO LIKE
Geelong match-winner Lawson Humphries admitted he was overweight and an average runner as an 18-year-old. Humphries was in West Coast’s Next Generation Academy but went undrafted in 2021-22. He expected to miss out for a third time and didn’t bother to tell his mother last year’s national draft was on. But the Cats were watching. They pulled the trigger with the second-last pick and have a future star on their hands. “He’s beautiful both sides of his body, he’s fit, good in the air – he doesn’t have too many flaws, to be honest,” Mitch Duncan told the Herald Sun. Teammate Ollie Dempsey is about to win the Rising Star. Dempsey was a rookie selection. So were Tom Atkins, Jack Henry, Bradley Close and Mark Blicavs. That’s how you defy footy’s gravitational pull of equalisation levers.
A WILD YEAR
Scott Pendlebury is 7-1 in milestone matches and players celebrating their 400th game are now 3-3. Funny game, football. West Coast’s Harry Edwards and Hawthorn’s Calshear Dear both stepped into rebuilding teams. Entering this round Dear is 10-1 and Edwards had lost 28 consecutive games. That streak was snapped on Friday night – but Edwards suffered a concussion and may not fully remember a rare win. Charlie Curnow’s run of games kicking at least one goal ended on 66, which is the 18th longest streak in VFL-AFL history. Of more concern to the Blues is their recent record. They’ve lost four out of five and play Dear’s Hawks next week in what shapes as a possible elimination final. Mitch McGovern’s miss after the siren has not only jeopardised the Blues’ season but kept Collingwood’s premiership defence well and truly alive. Combined, the Swans and Blues 2-9 … and both wins came against North Melbourne. So the two clubs who everybody had pencilled in for the grand final have not beaten anyone above 17th on the ladder in more than a month. What a wild year.
TALE OF TWO HIGH PICKS
North Melbourne drafted Luke Davies-Uniacke at No.4 in 2017. Two selections later Collingwood took Jaidyn Stephenson. In 2018 Stephenson won the Rising Star and played in a grand final whereas LDU struggled to make his mark. It was a slow burn for Davies-Uniacke and Stephenson’s career appeared to be flaming out after that white-hot start. On Saturday ‘LDU’ had 33 disposals and three goals. He was the difference and simply a class above. Stephenson showed he had more to give in the second half with some critical moments from the wing. Thought Stephenson’s career was over when former coach Nathan Buckley said: “For North, they need to back a kid like that (Jackson Archer) who’s going to give competitive efforts over say a Jaidyn Stephenson, who when he gets selected is inconsistent with his effort. I don’t know what standard you’re setting when you pick players like that”. Kudos to Stephenson for turning it around. As for Archer, he did the job on Shai Bolton and Charlie Comben and Aiden Corr were rock-solid behind the ball. Not to mention Zane Duursma’s hanger, Colby McKercher’s 31 disposals and Harry Sheezel’s imminent All-Australian blazer.
TRELOAR A GIFT DOGS COULDN’T SAY NO TO
Adam Treloar was not in Western Bulldogs’ trade plans in 2020. The Bulldogs not only got him for insignificant draft capital courtesy of Collingwood’s fire sale, but the Magpies are still paying $300,000 of his annual contract. For the Dogs it was quite literally the deal of the century. They have traded in 44 players since 1999 and Treloar ranks No.1.
The man of the moment, Adam Treloar talks about his journey to 250 games 🙠#AFLDogsDeespic.twitter.com/qCD3gXyftN
— 7AFL (@7AFL) August 2, 2024
At 31 Treloar is tracking towards his first All-Australian blazer and possibly his first best-and-fairest. The 250-gamer is in the form of his life and alongside Marcus Bontempelli they have kicked 42 goals as the league’s most lethal one-two midfield punch. Reckon the podium for the Dogs’ best pick-ups would be No. 1 Treloar, No. 2 Ben Hudson and No. 3 Barry Hall, with an apology to Jason Akermanis and an asterisk next to Tom Boyd’s name as the hero of the final six quarters in 2016.
FLAG-SCRAY
The word from Melbourne’s locker room on Friday night was the first five minutes was the toughest football they have faced this year. The Dogs led clearances 9-0, won 13 consecutive inside 50s and denied the Dees a possession in their half until halfway through the first quarter. The scariest part is the Dogs were similarly deadly against Geelong and Sydney. Their past three opening quarters have yielded 11.15 (81) to 1.4 (10). Imagine if they kicked straight? Goalkicking coach Brad Johnson had last week off, but is expected to be at Whitten Oval this week. They are clearly the No. 1 seed and – for the first time under Luke Beveridge – look poised to secure the double chance.
Bevo doesn’t like historical references, but Rory Lobb’s emergence as a Glen Jakovich-like defender has shades of fullback Zaine Cordy being swung forward for the first time in his life in 2016. Cordy went on to be a premiership full-forward and kicked the club’s first goal in the grand final. The past month stands as the club’s best since that finals series. The club’s longest winning streak is nine games (1946). If they keep this up, they would equal that in a preliminary final and break it with a remarkable third premiership in the grand final. Does Katy Perry know the lyrics to Freed from Desire?
Originally published as Early Tackle: Sam Landsberger’s likes and dislikes from AFL round 21
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