Moneyball: Follow all the latest trade, contract and draft news across the AFL
The Western Bulldogs look likely to lose one of their young stars turning down a reported three year deal after being neglected in the second half of the season.
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Fremantle has made its first move in the haggling which is set to take place over the value of gun midfielder Adam Cerra.
Dockers football manager Peter Bell has confirmed Cerra told the Dockers he wanted to speak to Carlton about a new home but was yet to nominate the Blues as his preferred new home.
Bell said the Dockers would want a significant return for Cerra, most likely to include the Blues first round pick, plus other pieces for the midfielder.
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Sam Petrevski-Seton is tipped to explore a fresh start if David Teague is kept on as Carlton coach, while Zak Fisher is another West Australian who could be targeted.
“The interesting thing at this stage is Adam hasn’t indicated a team that he would like to be traded to,” Bell said on Sportsday WA radio.
“He has said that Carlton would be one of the teams that he and his management would speak to.
“We absolutely believe him when he says that he hasn’t had any dialogue personally with any club.
“I’m sure the management have had some sort of conversations along the way, but he is a person of great integrity.
“When he says I haven’t met with a club, we all believe him. As to what he is worth, we drafted him at pick 5.
“He has now played close to 80 games. He finished third in the Doig medal last year. He will have a very high placing this year, notwithstanding a couple of games.
“And he is an outstanding character with leadership qualities, so we think he is worth a lot.”
On Tuesday, the Herald Sun reported Carlton could be forced to hand over more than their No. 6 draft pick for Cerra after the Dockers midfielder officially asked for a trade home on Tuesday.
Cerra felt the pull of family back in Victoria more than the desire to stay in Perth after four years at Fremantle.
He is expected to find his way to the Blues, and while his new inside midfielder role means his kicking efficiency dropped to 61 per cent this year, industry figures believe he has massive upside after 76 mostly excellent games.
The Dockers had offered him two or four-year options, but with his partner Claudia having finished her four-year degree and Cerra falling out of contract it was the perfect time to come home.
Despite a kick rating this year right on the AFL average — positive 0.1 per cent — he had the 11th best retention rate of players kicking inside 50 and the third-highest mark rate of players kicking inside 50.
He would not only help complement the Blues midfield, but as one close observer said: “He would be the best kick at Carlton”.
The Blues will attempt to split their No. 6 pick — which will become No. 8 on draft night due to father-son bids — and hand the Dockers a later first-round pick.
But the going rate for top-10 picks with Cerra’s talent who come home is usually steeper.
Carlton will point to Dion Prestia being secured by Richmond for pick 6 (with a swap of pick 24 and a future second-rounder) and Hawthorn nabbing Tom Mitchell for pick 14 in a trade.
But Adam Treloar was secured by Collingwood for two second-round picks (with a second-rounder going back to the Pies), the Chad Wingard deal involved pick 15 and Ryan Burton, and Lachie Neale was swapped to Brisbane for 6, 16 and 55 (with pick 30 returning to the Lions).
The decision to request a trade will only kick start what could be a month of protracted negotiations.
Carlton’s Sam Petreveski-Seton has not drawn interest from Fremantle despite speculation so would be unlikely to be part of a Dockers package.
Cerra’s last four games for the Dockers saw him at his brilliant best but he averaged only 61 per cent efficiency with his kicks this year playing a more inside game.
He rated above average for uncontested possessions and metres gained and elite for marks, but below average for contested possessions, clearances and pressure points and poor for tackles.
Parker yet to sign deal with Swans
There is increasing intrigue around Luke Parker’s situation as the star Swan holds out for a new deal.
Parker, who has been one of the club’s players over the past decade, is an unrestricted free agent, meaning he can walk to the club of his choice.
Negotiations on his new deal have been unable to resolve the matter as the Swans manage a tight salary cap.
The club is unable to extend Lance Franklin’s deal which could help relieve some pressure in the short term and back-end his blockbuster contract.
George Hewitt is another who has been linked to Carlton in a move which would help bolster the Blues’ modest midfield brigade.
Rival clubs are watching Parker’s situation closely even though there is widespread expectation he will remain in red and white.
Parker, 28, said on Sunday he was not worried about his contract.
“At the moment it is not signed, but we are in talks and hopefully that will get sorted in the near future,” Parker said on Triple M.
“I’m trying to enjoy my football, play some good finals and hopefully continue the ball rolling and hopefully that takes care of itself in the background.”
Parker, from Langwarrin in Victoria, was drafted from the Dandenong Stingrays with pick No. 40 in 2010.
List balancing act to keep Mitchell occupied
Hawthorn is more than open to retaining its senior quartet of established stars Chad Wingard, Jack Gunston, Tom Mitchell and Jaeger O’Meara despite speculation about their futures.
The Hawks at one stage seemed so starved of young talent it seemed certain one of those players might be off-loaded for high picks.
But as the Hawks conduct their exit interviews Gunston, coming off back surgery, at this stage seems more than keen to stay.
Wingard and Mitchell played their best football at the back half of the year, with the Hawks aware cutting their list back too deep would only expose the young kids too early.
It will be a delicate balancing act for Sam Mitchell and anything could still happen in the trade period.
But at this stage Mitchell seems committed to retaining his senior talent, with few clubs having the cap space to bring in a $750,000 player.
As one industry expert said of bringing in the cap crunch brought about by salary cap cuts: “Doing a deal for $800,000 is like $1.2 million in the old days”.
The Hawks have introduced Lachie Bramble, Jai Newcombe, Conor Downie, Tyler Brockman, Denver Grainger-Barras this year, with Jacob Koschitzke, Will Day, Jack Scrimshaw and Changkouth Jiath emerging as players of massive potential.
Dog looking more like he’s out of the kennel
The Western Bulldogs have put a strong deal believed to be three seasons to Patrick Lipinski and are keen for him to remain at the club next year.
But he is certain to move on in search of more opportunities after only 11 games this year and only two since Round 11.
Lipinski wasn’t an emergency last week and clubs including Sydney have come hard for a player who dominates as an inside mid at VFL level but has played on the wing at the Dogs.
At 23, the 190cm utility is craving the opportunity to play first-team football and is unlikely to secure that chance at the Dogs.
The Bulldogs have shown how keen they are to secure him with that contract offer but will be open to a trade if he declines that contract.
Why a milestone looks a certainty for Ward
Callan Ward is certain to play on next year and hit the 250-game milestone after signing a quiet contract extension for 2022 some time ago.
But the Giants face a tough decision in assessing the future of his former co-captain Phil Davis, who is out of contract and out of the selected side.
Ward has been in brilliant form this season averaging 23 possessions and capping his home-and-away season with two goals, possessions and 150 ranking points against Carlton.
Initially dragged out of the Western Bulldogs as a fan favourite on a hefty contract his side didn’t have a hope of matching, he then signed a five-year deal in 2016.
But the Giants extended that deal a while back so he’s actually only out of contract next year.
Davis has played 10 games in each of the past two seasons and is only 30 years of age, with the Giants playing a defence that includes the brilliant Sam Taylor and Nick Haynes.
Surely there is a spot on the list even for insurance purposes for Davis, who is such a big part of what the Giants have built.
Delisted Tiger shouldn’t have to wait too long
Patrick Naish will likely have AFL suitors despite being delisted with only nine games under his belt on Tuesday.
The Tigers struggled to find a home for him given Kamdyn McIntosh is a lock on one wing and Jack Ross got chances late in the year on the other wing.
But he remains an elite kick with a strong tank at only 22, so will surely be seen as a rookie selection by a rival at minimum.
The son of popular 161-game forward Chris Naish was delisted alongside Derek Eggmolesse Smith, who won the last spot on the list.
Sydney Stack and Daniel Rioli will soon sign new deals while rivals believe Callum Coleman-Jones is more likely to stay despite outside interest including Gold Coast.
Looks like Moore of the same at Hawks
Hawthorn is edging closer to striking a new multi-season deal with small forward Dylan Moore, one of its most improved players this season.
Moore’s future at the Hawks was on a knife’s edge at the start of this season, but his 20-game, 27-goal season has solidified his role within the team.
The 22-year-old managed only 10 games in his first two seasons at Waverley, which saw him delisted before he was recontracted on a one-year rookie deal.
Moore took his chance and played an important role in the Hawks’ forward line in 2021, with his four-goal haul against Greater Western Sydney being his performance in a consistent season.
He has worked closely with Luke Breust on this game and looks set to carry on his good form next year in what will be Sam Mitchell’s first season at the helm as coach.
Pendlebury clears air over mooted move
Collingwood skipper Scott Pendlebury has moved to clarify his weekend comments about his future.
As revealed in Moneyball last week, the Magpies have offered Pendlebury a one-year deal, despite his interest in a two-year contract with an option to pursue coaching at some stage.
The 33-year-old said on radio on Sunday that he would be willing to look at moving to another club if an opportunity involving coaching arose.
But Pendlebury cleared up the situation on Tuesday, apologising for the “confusion”, saying he fully intended to remain a one-club player.
“Just to clear it up – I want to be a one-club player and finish my playing career at Collingwood,” Pendlebury tweeted.
“I’m open to coaching at another club AFTER my playing days.
“Collingwood fam … I’m not going anywhere.”
No bites yet for big fish Houli
Bachar Houli’s footy farewell last Saturday is likely to remain a permanent one.
The triple premiership defender had been keen to play on next year, but Richmond did not offer him a new contract for 2022.
It gave rise to speculation a rival club might be willing to offer the 33-year-old a one-year lifeline on a budget wage.
It is understood no club has yet come forward and while that can always change in this fluid AFL industry, Houli has come to terms with his retirement.
He does really intend to “go fishing” when restrictions allow and he is looking to spend more time and energy on his family and the Bachar Houli Foundation, which has long been his passion.
Eagles assistant coach to join Hawks
Highly-rated West Coast assistant coach Adrian Hickmott is returning to Melbourne and has officially signed with Sam Mitchell to be his new assistant coach.
The Herald Sun understands he has signed a deal after spending a decade with West Coast in various roles and was one of the most popular members of the football department.
He worked with Mitchell when the Hawks’ new senior coach spent time at West Coast.
Highly regarded Hawks assistant Chris Newman has also re-signed with the club for two more seasons after impressive work with the Hawthorn backline.
Brendon Bolton is already signed for 2022 and unless Alastair Clarkson lured him away to a new club as his lieutenant he is also set to stay on next year.
Bolton and Mitchell are not as close as the new Hawks assistant is with Newman but still have a strong working relationship.
Collingwood stand-in coach Robert Harvey has always been strongly linked to the Eagles given Adam Simpson is a big fan of his work.
There is now a spot on Simpson’s coaching team but it remains to be seen if Harvey is keen to shift west to take up a role there.
St Kilda assistant coach Aaron Hamill is also looking at a few assistant coaching opportunities following his departure from the club after 10 seasons.
Whether he finds his way back to Carlton will be answered in coming weeks.
“I’ve got that passion and I still harbour that desire to coach,” Hamill said on SEN. “I’ve still got that burn within.”
“(I’ve) had a couple of discussions with clubs within the industry and outside the industry. We’ll see where that ends up.”
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Originally published as Moneyball: Follow all the latest trade, contract and draft news across the AFL
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