AFL Run Home: Every result in the final seven weeks of the season
We’re looking at an incredible month and a half before finals. And it could lead to the mother of all elimination finals. Check out how every game for every team will shake out.
AFL
Don't miss out on the headlines from AFL. Followed categories will be added to My News.
Not so long ago, 12 wins would get you a spot in finals.
But with the addition of an extra round from last year, and the tightest middle of the ladder in recent memory, a dozen is not enough.
With seven rounds to go, we have predicted every result from here and our final ladder has four teams on 12 wins missing the finals.
The reigning premier Magpies will face a nerve-racking run home but with two draws in the back pocket, 12 wins is just enough on our final predicted ladder.
How is this for a mouth-watering elimination final – Collingwood taking on Essendon at the MCG.
And it’s tight for the double chance too, with Geelong and Brisbane making huge runs in the closing weeks.
Check out how we think every game and every team will shake out as we hit the final stages of the season.
1. SYDNEY
Won: 13, Lost: 3, Points: 52, Percentage: 140.8
Predicted finish: 1st (Record: 19-4)
The Swans have had a hiccup over the last fortnight but have a big enough lead over Carlton to cruise to the minor flag. A club record wins should also be ticked off, with 17 victories in 2014 a Swans record. A top-two spot is virtually guaranteed so John Longmire may consider a resting policy over the run home.
2. CARLTON
Won: 11, Lost: 5, Points: 44, Percentage: 116.1
Predicted finish: 2nd (18-5)
Anything but a home qualifying final from here would be a disappointment. The Blues have a very comfortable run home – really only games against the Bulldogs and Magpies should be in doubt. Look out for Carlton’s dynamic duo of Patrick Cripps and Sam Walsh this weekend given the Dogs got cut up by Port Adelaide’s on-ballers in round 17. It’s all about preparing for September now.
3. FREMANTLE
Won: 10, Lost: 5, Drawn: 1, Points: 42, Percentage: 115.1
Predicted finish: 6th (14-8-1)
A top-four finish is in Justin Longmuir’s hands. The Dockers are well placed but face a bunch of swing games. Playing Hawthorn in Tasmania is very tough, they got belted by the Eagles earlier this year, and away trips against Essendon and GWS will be difficult. But Fremantle is performing as well as any side below the top two.
4. ESSENDON
Won: 10, Lost: 5, Drawn: 1, Points: 42, Percentage: 99.9
Predicted finish: 5th (15-7-1)
Mark it in your diary: a meeting against Brisbane at the Gabba could decide Essendon’s top-four spot. The Bombers should stamp their finals ticket with five winnable games in Victoria starting on Saturday night. Sam Draper should dominate Melbourne in the ruck with Max Gawn sidelined, while Zach Merrett is on career-best form. The Bombers somehow holding a negative percentage doesn’t help the cause. Strap in – by our reckoning the Bombers will host the Magpies in a gigantic elimination final at the MCG.
5. GEELONG
Won: 10, Lost: 6, Points: 40, Percentage: 109.7
Predicted finish: 3rd (16-7)
How about that for a run home. The Cats play four of the bottom five sides in the final stretch. Before that is a beat-up Collingwood and a home game against the Dogs, a team they have beaten in five of their last six meetings. Even if the Cats let one win slip, they should still finish above the Bombers thanks to Essendon’s rubbish percentage. Would the Cats fancy themselves in a qualifying final against Carlton, as the De Koning brothers meet once more?
6. PORT ADELAIDE
Won: 10, Lost: 6, Points: 40, Percentage: 104.8
Predicted finish: 11th (12-11)
Sorry Port fans, this is not happy reading. The Power should beat Richmond at home and the Crows, but the Showdown is always a toss up. Beyond that, where would you tip Ken Hinkley’s topsy-turvy side?
7. BRISBANE LIONS
Won: 9, Lost: 6, Drawn: 1, Points: 38, Percentage: 120.4
Predicted finish: 4th (15-7-1)
It was only a few weeks ago that the Lions ended round 15 sitting 13th on the ladder. They have been a top-three calibre side since and should that form carry on, the Lions will make the top four. It’s not easy – the Lions face five sides pushing for finals in the run home – but should get the double chance now. Round 19 against Sydney and a final three weeks facing GWS, Collingwood and Essendon will tell the story.
8. GWS GIANTS
Won: 9, Lost: 7, Points: 36, Percentage: 108.6
Predicted finish: 7th (13-10)
It’s pretty simple for the Giants – take care of business at home games and they make it. The Giants have a number of winnable away games as well on this final run. Should they win those home matches – one of which will be in Canberra against Hawthorn – a top-eight spot should be secured before round 24.
9. COLLINGWOOD
Won: 8, Lost: 6, Drawn: 2, Points: 36, Percentage: 104.5
Predicted finish: 8th (12-9-2)
This one is going to be tight. The Pies need to get back on a winning run soon, which is not easy given the ever-growing injury list. In Craig McRae’s favour is the two draws his side picked up, which means the Pies should get in if they win four of their last seven, and if percentage breaks their way they could make it with just 11 total wins. But slip ups from here could be costly. It starts on Friday against Geelong. Nick Daicos racked up 35 touches last time he played against the Cats and will surely face a tag from Tom Atkins. His brother Josh had 38 disposals in his last crack at the Cats. All appears set for two must-win games in the final fortnight.
10. MELBOURNE
Won: 9, Lost: 7, Points: 36, Percentage: 104.4
Predicted finish: 13th (11-12)
It’s all eight-point games from here. Every single game the Demons play on the run home is against a side in the running for finals. Without Max Gawn it is hard to see them winning in the next two weeks and from there, Melbourne would need to bank four of five to make it. Going to be very difficult. And finishing 13th would be a bitter result for a team that thought it was in the flag window.
11. WESTERN BULLDOGS
Won: 8, Lost: 8, Points: 32, Percentage: 114.8
Predicted finish: 9th (12-11)
In both of the last two seasons, the Dogs have won 12 games. In 2022, that was enough to slip into eighth. Last year, a 12-11 record left them ninth. This season, a dozen wins will not get Luke Beveridge into finals. The Bulldogs are certainly capable of winning five of their last seven to get there but need to pick up one against Carlton, Geelong or Sydney in Sydney. Can’t see it happening.
12. GOLD COAST
Won: 8, Lost: 8, Points: 32, Percentage: 105.3
Predicted finish: 10th (12-11)
Could it all come down to Damien Hardwick beating Richmond to make finals? If the Suns win every game at home and pick up one away – say against West Coast – they can make it, if they beat Brisbane. If they can’t even beat West Coast on the road, Hardwick might fill up a swear jar.
13. HAWTHORN
Won: 8, Lost: 8, Points: 32, Percentage: 94.2
Predicted finish: 12th (12-11)
The percentage makes it very tough for Sam Mitchell now. – the Hawks probably need to hit 14 wins to get in to finals. Hard to see them winning six of seven on the run home but this season has clearly been a big step forward already.
14. ST KILDA
Won: 6, Lost: 10, Points: 24, Percentage: 93.1
Predicted finish: 14th (8-15)
The Saints play in Adelaide for the third time in 18 rounds this weekend, then can enjoy home comforts at Marvel Stadium for the rest of the season. It’s a tough home run. But the Saints have lost six games by 10 points or less to sides sitting above them on the ladder this year so are a danger side.
15. ADELAIDE
Won: 5, Lost: 10, Drawn: 1, Points: 22, Percentage: 102.6
Predicted finish: 15th (6-16-1)
Adelaide has never lost 16 games in a season and only once (2020) finished below 15th on the ladder. It’s ugly reading in an ugly season. There are some winnable games here – a round 23 Showdown looms the largest – but the Crows probably just want this season to be over.
16. WEST COAST
Won: 3, Lost: 13, Points: 12, Percentage: 69.1
Predicted finish: 17th (3-20)
Maybe the ‘dead coach bounce’ could lift the Eagles on the run home? With Adam Simpson gone, a new coach usually sees a minor upturn in results. But on paper right now, you couldn’t tip West Coast in any of the games to come.
17. NORTH MELBOURNE
Won: 2, Lost: 14, Points: 8, Percentage: 66.1
Predicted finish: 16th (4-19)
The Roos have enjoyed their best patch of the season over the past month but now they face the top two teams in the competition, followed by a resurgent Cats. The final month is kinder and a final-round game against Hawthorn is winnable.
18. RICHMOND
Won: 2, Lost: 14, Points: 8, Percentage: 62.3
Predicted finish: 18th (2-21)
Recording just two wins would be on par with 1960 as the lowest tally in Richmond history, but that year the Tigers also had two draws. The Tigers should be competitive in games against the Roos, Saints and Hawks but on form you can’t tip them right now. Anyone remember when Richmond handily beat Sydney? Feels like a lifetime ago.
More Coverage
Originally published as AFL Run Home: Every result in the final seven weeks of the season
Gather Round: Crows open again, Ken, Hawks set for blockbuster
One of the biggest moments of the AFL season came after the Power-Hawks final when Ken Hinkley told Jack Ginnivan he wouldn’t be flying to Sydney. Now we know when the rematch is coming.
Ralph: The key Dees developments that could save Goodwin’s job
Melbourne’s public review said it was capable of playing finals, but their game plan had to be refined, now the work begins for Simon Goodwin after a tumultuous 31 months, writes Jon Ralph.