AFL Fixture 2024: Champion Data ranks every draw from hardest to easiest
Champion Data has crunched the numbers to rate every club’s 2024 fixture. The Hawks have been dealt a tough run, while some clubs’ finals chances just went up. See where your club sits.
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Damien Hardwick has been given an armchair ride in his first year with Gold Coast, while the Brisbane Lions will have to defy the data to make another deep finals run according to the Champion Data fixture opposition breakdown.
Based on the 2023 finish of who each club faces twice in 2024, the fixture analysis has Chris Fagan’s team facing the hardest draw next season.
The Lions have double-up meetings with finalists St Kilda, GWS Giants, Melbourne and Collingwood, plus potential top-eight sides Adelaide and Gold Coast.
Yet despite the tough run, the Lions actually have been more favoured to win it all in 2024 with the bookies, coming in from $7 to $6 with TAB after the fixture was dropped on Thursday.
Hawthorn and West Coast naturally face difficult draws given they finished in the bottom three this year and will have to face mostly teams that finished above them, with the Hawks rated 17th and the Eagles 16th for easiest fixture.
But North Melbourne has avoided the same fate, given the third-best run after being handed just one double-up against a 2023 finalist in Carlton.
Hardwick’s Suns will have no excuses to not make a maiden finals appearance as the only club who landed four combined games against cellar dwellers West Coast and North Melbourne.
Ross Lyon is well placed to replicate a September appearance in his first year back at St Kilda, with the Saints given the second-best run of opponents from 2023’s finishing order.
The Saints could come home with a wet sail, playing eight of their last nine games at Marvel Stadium.
The stats may love the Saints draw but the bookies don’t, with St Kilda drifting out from $34 premier to $41 after the fixture release.
Geelong (fourth) also rated well in the number crunch, with Melbourne (fifth) easily the best of sides to finish in the top-four on this year’s ladder.
The Demons do have double-games against fellow top-four teams Port Adelaide, Brisbane and Collingwood.
Again, the bookies didn’t see what the numbers people do, with Melbourne going from $8 to win the flag to $10.
The fixture analysis doesn’t factor in breaks between games or travel, with Sydney rated 14th without considering a travel-heavy fixture that features no back-to-back games at the SCG.
The betting market has made its early call of who it thinks will be playing in September 2024, with each of the Western Bulldogs, Geelong, Gold Coast, St Kilda and Essendon sitting outside the top-eight sides with best finals odds.
Port Adelaide is still rated as a top-four side with the bookmakers, despite ranking 15th in the fixture analysis thanks to a schedule that doesn’t include double-ups against any side that finished 2023 in the bottom four.
Collingwood ($3.85) has been well backed to win the minor premiership, while North Melbourne ($2.50) is slated to cop the most losses, despite a favourable draw.
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Originally published as AFL Fixture 2024: Champion Data ranks every draw from hardest to easiest
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